June 25, 2020

Continuation of dialogue needed to strengthen China-EU relationship

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-24/Continuation-of-dialogue-needed-to-strengthen-China-EU-relationship-RAiZkOl3gs/index.html

The Covid-19 has swiped more than 470,000 human lives and teetered many top economies of the world while the strings attached to the deadly zoonotic disease, such as the lockdowns and social distancing, have unprecedented and pestilent strokes to all businesses, impelling them to dangle their operations or go to the wall.

In the middle of the intensifying challenges to the global economy, the International Monetary Fund – which posted put forwarded a depressive worldwide economic outlook just a couple of months before due to the “Great Lockdown” and expected the global growth to tank by 3% – is likely further strip its global economic forecast this week.

While the experts fear that the resurgence of coronavirus cases risks a tilt from a V-shaped to a U-shaped recovery, it is quite obvious that there is silver-bullet to reverse the downslide of global economy unless and until some joint, resolute and wholesome efforts are put in by the world leading nations to promote cooperation by ironing out differences.

In such an attempt, the top leadership from China and the European Union (EU) on Monday met via video link and discussed a range of issues relating to bilateral trade and investment, climate change, research and development on the coronavirus vaccine, peace and security, global supply chains and human rights, inter alia.

Although European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel, accompanied by High Representative Josep Borrell, shared concerns over new national security legislation in Hong Kong but they highlighted evolved China-EU ties, Europe’s dependence on Beijing and importance of multilateralism and called on to work with Beijing to overcome the grave global issues – noting that engagement and collaboration with China was “both opportunity and necessity.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping, in return, reaffirmed Beijing wants peace instead of hegemony and pursues a path of peaceful development and extended his willingness to strengthen strategic cooperation with the EU to cope with the grim global challenges. He also said that China was prepared to liaise in green development and keep the global industrial and supply chains stable and smooth – urging both sides to maintain openness and accelerate the negotiation on China-EU investment agreement.

The EU bid for crucial partnership with China – be it in terms of trade, climate, technology, and the defense of multilateralism – sounded its profound interests in forging an integrated China-EU approach and their alignment on vital international issues. The unanimity between the two of the world’s largest economies on an all-inclusive cooperation was a also clear rebuttal of the protectionism and unilateralism, being assertively practiced by the US.

As easing of lockdowns and opening of economic activities pave way for steady China’s recovery, the bright spots in the country such as new housing prices that rose at seven-month fastest pace in May, consumer demand industrial output and investment gleamed hopes for the EU. All the Chinese improving economic indicators emboldened the European economy, which has transitioned from health to economic crisis, to return back to normalcy by seeking cooperation from Beijing.

China is one of the biggest sources of imports for the EU and is the second-largest export market for European goods. Bilateral trade between the two averaged about $1.9 billion a day in 2019 at a sunny growth rate of 8%. Investments by more than 3,200 Chinese firms last year created nearly 260,000 jobs in the EU – that described Beijing didn’t show any complacency in honoring its investment commitments and has been keen to assimilate itself with the EU.

In the virus-triggered and naturally-driven new world order, decoupling from other economies of the world is an option almost impossible to withstand. The Covid-19 has redefined the globe in such a manner that no country can afford to alienate and all states have to engage with each other diplomatically and economically for their survival and growth.

Being the two biggest traders across the planet, China and the EU can stimulate their economies by ramping up the reciprocal trade and fostering investment. The endorsement by 63% European in a survey conducted by Roland Berger as China one of the investment destinations was a key litmus test that Beijing continues to open up its 1.4 billion domestic markets for foreign firms.

With a 43% increase in the number of freight trains in May and roughly doubling of cargo transported, the outspread rail network can help both China and the EU to tap their real trade potential as well as lower the transportation costs drastically. Almost one-third increase each in China-EU number of freight trains and shipments to supply more than 12,500 tons of epidemic prevention supplies underscored how efficiently the grid boosted the joint response to the disease.

As stark challenges emerge in a post-pandemic era, a more bracing and a more invigorating cooperation between Beijing and Brussels should be the pressing priority, which is also needed for the revival of global growth. Like China, the EU has been trying to counter the aggressive attitude of Donald Trump. An eloquent, joint response to safeguard international rules-based system and promote multilateralism would help them to push back the protectionist and revolting attitude of the US president.

Brussels also needs to realize Beijing’s rolling contributions toward the EU. While it expects China to meet its pledges under the 2019 China-EU summit and seeks advanced negotiations for an ambitious EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement, increased market access and Chinese engagement on future deliberations on industrial subsidies in WTO – the EU should evade indulging itself deeply into Chinese sovereignty and must also stop targeting Chinese firms by imposing anti-dumping duties.

China and the EU maintain a long-time relationship that should not be wronged by the third country’s wild goose chase, aimed at wedging differences between the age-old allies. It is therefore imperative for both to thwart divergences and continue the dialogue on strengthening cooperation, which is the only way to weather from the ongoing global economic and health exigency.

Foreign intervention in Libya

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2246910/6-foreign-intervention-libya/

Almost a decade after the longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in a NATO-backed uprising in Libya, the major North African oil producing country is yet to witness any lull in the prickly civil war as an intense domestic strife, assisted by several international governments, continues to drive the nation into a sheer hullabaloo.

Even though the states involved in deadly internal conflict have endorsed the UN calls to end the foreign intervention and cease infighting between the two warring parties, Government of National Accord (GNA) of Fayez al-Sarraj and Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, the fierce battle to control the torn-up land is far from over.

Bolstered by recent gains in Tarhouna, Sharara and Tripoli – the GNA forces are fighting to push its rival out of al-Jufra and Sirte, the gateway to Haftar’s stronghold in the east. Serraj, having survived the onslaught of the renegade General with surged support from Turkey for more than a year, now seeks to recapture “whole of the homeland.”

The operation, Path to Victory, launched last Saturday by the internationally recognized GNA government pledged to “liberate all of Libya from the war criminal Haftar,” who is backed by Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – other major influential powers in the Libyan conflict. The retreating LNA also vowed to keep fighting until the ceasefire is accepted by its opposing side.

Latest clashes emerged after the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said on Wednesday that both groups were fully engaged in the third round of 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) talks and called on them to further de-escalate to prevent additional civilian casualties and new waves of displacement.

Notwithstanding the announcement, resumption of fight sternly threatens the UN-brokered peace dialogue in the country. Earlier, it was LNA that undermined talks over its renewed achievements and veiled aegis from the US and now, the GNA is pursuing the same tactics to acquire leverage before the start of the peace process.

The entire poser emanates from Turkish shaky endorsement to any negotiations. Ankara’s conditional support for a political solution – while dismissing Egyptian proposal and reaffirmation that the GNA would continue fighting to seize the coastal city of Sirte and the Jufra air base further south – elevates risks to the likelihoods of any successful peace effort.

Turkish military intervention in Libya – buttressing its support for the GNA through deploying soldiers, drones and fighters from Syria – is aimed at seeking a sweeping control on vast energy reserves in the country and the eastern Mediterranean. A last year maritime delimitation deal between Ankara and Tripoli, to create an exclusive economic zone from its southern to Libyan northeast coast, described Turkish profound interests in strategic assets and resources of the region.

Ankara’s signing of the treaty has stoked tensions with Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, France and the UAE that in a joint statement on May 11 strongly condemned Turkish offensive moves. Turkey also had criticized five-nation-declaration and fired back at Cyprus and Greece for “relying on irrelevant non-regional actors.”

Now Erdogan administration is quickly stepping ahead to gain overwhelmingly from a pro-Turkish government in Libya. It last month announced plans to begin oil exploration within three to four months and deploy the Fatih ship to hold its first drilling operation in Black Sea on July 15 as well as reiterated to send its new Kanuni ship to the strategic zone.

The importunity not to commit an engagement in Libya and eastern Mediterranean by Ankara could invoke disturbances and threaten any long-lasting truce between Libyan contending sides. As its gamble to militarily intervene in Tripoli is apparently coming to fruition, the sporadic success can lead Turkey to become more aggressive in the ravaged country and across the regional seawaters.

On Friday, Turkish officials said that its air force and navy conducted joint military drills, High Seas Exercises, in the Mediterranean Sea near Libya. The maneuvers, comprising 17 warplanes and 8 frigates off the coast of Libya, was clearly a show of power and shined on Turkey’s long-term ambitions.

The contemporary events coincided with a drama in Mediterranean when a Turkish vessel accompanying two frigates and purportedly carrying weapons to Libya, prohibited an inspection from Greek navy ship that was sailing under the new European Union (EU) naval mission, Operation Irini, off the Libyan coast.

Irini replaced the prior human trafficking-linked Operation Sophia and is the EU rehabilitated campaign, which asserts to enforce the UN arms embargo on Libya through a military effort by deploying aerial, satellite and maritime assets in Mediterranean and contribute to a political peace process and sustainable ceasefire in Libya.

Almost after five years of failed Sophia without meaningfully deterring the flow of migrants, disrupting the smugglers’ networks or impeding the illegal trade – the future of EU’s latest Operation Irini, akin to its predecessor, seems to be hazy and makes the goals of the Irini effort even skeptical.

While Turkey tightens its grip in Libya and eastern Mediterranean, the only thing that threatens to fizzle out in Libya over the long-winded foreign involvement is peace. As hard-pressed by Ankara, the GNA marches deep into the strong footholds of Haftar but faces a strong resistance, the bloody faceoff would push further back any peace prospects in the hapless country.

June 1, 2020

Fast-changing European mood on America

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-29/Fast-changing-European-mood-on-America-QTaXflWwus/index.html

Donald Trump is spearheading a campaign that continues to uncouple the United States from countries across the world, notable the ones in Europe. The president has been doing so by scrapping the US bilateral and multilateral agreements and treaties such as Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), Paris Agreement, Trans-Pacific Treaty (TTP) and Iran nuclear deal.

On May 21, he unveiled his plan to pull the US out of another key global landmark pact – Treaty on Open Skies – which allows unarmed observation, surveillance or reconnaissance flights over signatory states, accusing Russia for violating the terms of the 35-nation accord. Proposed by the former US President Dwight Eisenhower in 1955, it was signed in 1992 and took effect in 2002.

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that six months from now, Washington will no longer be a party to the Treaty however it may reconsider its decision should Moscow “return to full compliance.” He accused that Russia was appearing to use Open Sky imagery to advance its “doctrine of targeting critical infrastructure” in the US and Europe with precision-guided conventional munitions.

Counter to Pompeo claims that the decision was taken after careful consideration including input from allies and key partners, the US’ European allies were thunderstruck by Trump administration’s impetuous withdrawal announcement from one of wide-ranging international efforts, which they believe provides transparency and stability and is an important contribution to EU and global security and stability.

Regretting the announcement, the European Union (EU) warned that withdrawal is not solution to address difficulties in its implementation or non-compliance by any party and urged the US to review its decision. The move would likely deepen rift between Washington and its European and NATO allies.

In a joint statement, the foreign ministries of Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden also defied the US claim about any deliberations with the bloc on American pullout from treaty and assured to continue to implement the Open Sky Treaty that is crucial element of to improve security across the Euro-Atlantic area.

The rebuke by the leading EU nations – as well as NATO commitment to continue to uphold, support and strengthen arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation – is an outright example of growing annoyance and insolence in the regional governments toward US imposing and unilateral actions that previously ditched Europe on INF and Iran nuclear deal and now is undermining their vital security objectives by increasing the risk of conflict.

Countries in the “peninsula of peninsulas” seem to be brimmed over with Washington’s imposing attitude and are outwardly looking to break the long-tied US shackles. The EU coalition appear to acquire the audacity to resist any idea that would force to trade off its security interests and therefor are taking decisions more independently.

The US is quite concerned with Moscow’s restrictions on flight distance over Kaliningrad, an area between Poland and Lithuania. The US national security adviser Robert O'Brien recently compared Russian enclave to a “dagger in the heart of Europe”. But in defiance to the US, the 11-nation alliance unanimously pledged that they will continue to engage Russia for settlement of all outstanding issues including overflight limitations over Kaliningrad.

Not only the governments’ mood, the tenor of the people in Europe vis-à-vis the United States is also changing and all this is happening under the leadership of Donald Trump. Last month, the YouGov pollsters found that in UK, only 13% of Brits thought that Britain should forge stronger relationship with the US.

Same is the case in France where the perceived level of dangerousness among the respondents from the US was highest compared to other nations. It was undoubtedly a reflection of American government attitude and more importantly mistrust on Trump who could gain the confidence of hardly 2% of French people.

A SWG survey recounted that a majority of the Italians wanted to develop Italy’s alliances with China (36%) more than the US (30%). In Germany, a latest poll by Körber-Stiftung, a partner of Pew Research Center, showed that an overwhelming majority (73%) of Germans had their opinion deteriorated about the US due to coronavirus pandemic.

When questioned, what is more important for Germany – the proportion of respondents, who opined that Berlin should have close relations with Washington, dropped 13% to 37% year-over-year. China, on the other hand, saw a spike of 12% to gain the support of 36% respondents. Additionally, Germans seeing America as the most important partner was also almost halved from 19% in 2019 to 10% in 2020.

The manifold surveys clearly describe that the trust among European countries about the US global leadership has been busted and they are now turning away from Washington over its botched response to Covid-19 and tension-stirring role in undermining the global cooperation to collectively defeat the virus.

Liam Kennedy, Professor of American Studies at University College Dublin, says that the transatlantic relations of the Western-led global order are in parlous state and European leaders have beginning to imagine a world order without the US at the center. “The ‘post-American world’ that is taking shape will see it and other Western nations decline while the rest, most notably China, rise.”

In his eloquent column “Donald Trump has destroyed the country he promised to great again” for The Irish Times, one of leading European journalists Fintan O’Toole analyzed that America – which was loved, hated and envied – for the first time, is being pitied by the world.

Reshaping of a auto-generated America-less global order and forlorn US situation have stems from Trump’s labeling the EU a foe and accusing it for unfair trade practices, threatening to slap tariffs on European goods, terming NATO alliance obsolete and pressing it to increase share of defense spending. This rhetoric, backed by some other harsh criticisms, has exasperated the European countries, which are reassessing whether the US will remain a plausible and steadfast partner, irrespective of who makes to the White House latter this year.

The warmness in Europe-US relationship was chilling for a few years but eventually, it is Trump’s mercantilist and protectionist view of transatlantic economic, security and political correlation that is accelerating the downfall of decades-old alliance. He has shunted the continent into a position where its trust on Washington has seriously splintered that could drive the European nations to reach out to other parts of the world and establish well-heeled security and trade ties.