Solution to Ukraine crisis rests in political and diplomatic dialogue

By: Azhar Azam

Since the onset of the Ukraine crisis, China has taken a neutral stance and called for a diplomatic solution. Nevertheless, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Munich accused Chinese companies of supplying non-lethal support to Russia, claiming Beijing "will provide lethal material" to the Kremlin.

Eventhough, Blinken and other American officials have denied seeing any evidence, the U.S. is dragging China into the conflict. The U.S. Treasury Department in January sanctioned a Chinese technology firm for allegedly providing satellite imagery to Wagner operations in Ukraine.

The U.S. actions have been exacerbated by a biased media and think tank reports that had smeared several Chinese entities for exporting military and dual-use technology items to Russian defense companies. Washington is undermining China's legitimate rights and interests. The Ukraine crisis had placed China "in a very difficult position," since Beijing had earlier maintained good ties with both warring parties.

Inevitably, wars disrupt the peace, economy and trade between countries. China's peaceful development has boosted the international economy, while ushering in stability across regions by emphasizing economic cooperation. A stable and flourishing Europe is in China's interests and Beijing stands keen to see an end to the Ukraine conflict.

Apparently by supplying lethal weapons to Kyiv, the U.S. is prolonging the conflict, as well as profiteering from the arms sales and energy crisis in Europe. Any considerations to deliver fighter jets, missile and other lethal munitions to Ukraine or sanctions and confiscation of Russia assets will only draw out the conflict for much longer.

Meanwhile, Brussels and Washington have several policy and issues' differences over China. The EU bloc is wary that Washington is pushing a new "cold war" against Beijing, although China is a major economy. This would pose significant threats to the closer EU-U.S. "policy alignment," vis-a-vis China and may test transatlantic ties.

The revival of the infamous Cold War grouping, the Committee on the Present Danger – which overstated the Soviet threat and was unveiled by a group of U.S. policy advisers and former officials including Steve Bannon in March 2019 – aims to stoke public sentiments against China and to increase war spending.

Beijing's characterization as a challenge to the self-styled Western values, security and interests by the U.S.-led NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is a cold war desire. This brings about downside risks to global peace and stability, especially the Asia-Pacific. Stoltenberg said, "weapons are the way to peace" and describes the Ukraine war as a "fight for democracy," while NATO is confronting Beijing on arms control and reshaping it into a more aggressive organization.

Stoltenberg claimed to have found "some signs" of China's alleged support to Russia in Ukraine and said Beijing shouldn't "in any way support violation of the UN Charter or international law." Yet, NATO has served as a tool for the U.S. to support invasions of sovereign countries, while calling for the United Nations to expel member states that disagree with the U.S. foreign policy agenda.

Meanwhile, Beijing favors respecting international law, the UN Charter and territorial integrity of all countries, while advocating for peace negotiations. One year after the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, Europeans feel divided over arming Kyiv and hope diplomacy can end the conflict. A consensus is growing worldwide that countries "cannot afford to lend (more) financial assistance to Ukraine."

Polls suggest that inflation, poverty and inequality and unemployment are the top issues for the global public; a majority of Europeans and Americans believe their countries are heading in the wrong direction. Americans are losing interest in wars and foreign conflicts, while the domestic economy, jobs, crime and corruption are their major concerns.

Beijing isn't the only country that has stayed impartial over the Ukrainian conflict. Many countries in the Global South, from Asia and Middle East to Latin America, have taken neutrality to heart. Washington is dividing the world into blocs, firing up alliances and projecting power. However, the U.S. has not rallied deeper support from the global who see the future of the world in multipolar terms.

China and EU are comprehensive strategic partners as the latter considers the former has become Brussels' strategic development partner. The commitment has ensured "continued progress" in global sustainable development over common interests, such as climate change, trade and investment, as well as increasing engagement over the Ukraine crisis through joint political and diplomatic contributions.

*This is my opinion piece that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":

Cold War mentality a roadblock to effective China-US collaboration

By: Azhar Azam

China's rise at the global stage as a leading economic power and its success in lifting masses out of poverty and improving their lives have been taken as a challenge for the Western democratic system led by the U.S. yet Beijing has never sought to impose its governance model on other countries or destabilize other democracies.

International scholars such as William Overholt – senior research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School – in a paper emphasized Beijing wasn't a "demon" and the U.S. allies were not "angels" and that the two economies had "enormous mutual interests" and "immense unpublicized national benefits" from the resulting stabilization between the two countries.

These shared interests have so far helped to overwhelm the calls of "decoupling" from some U.S. politicians and continue to perpetuate the growth in bilateral trade as American companies remain bullish on China. Even at 3 percent or 4 percent, the world's second largest economy is expected to add more dollar value over the next five years than the U.S., another reason for investors' confidence in China.

The "balloon-gate" must not accelerate "decoupling" or spell trouble for the investment relationship since it won't make much impact on China's economic recovery but could complicate U.S. businesses' efforts to "compete, grow and expand" in global markets. The International Monetary Fund sees Chinese growth rebounding to 5.2 percent in 2023, suggesting the U.S. should look to take advantage of China's expanding consumption.

China's drive to achieve self-reliance is entirely defensive; its openness in trade and investment supports the U.S. jobs and economic growth. Amid former U.S. President Donald Trump's intense trade war, exports to China in 2019 supported 758,000 jobs in the U.S., as per the United States Trade Representative; the number rose to more than one million, according to a latest report by the U.S.-China Business Council.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in January announced record farm exports of $36.4 billion to China in the fiscal year 2022. The "robust" shipments and more than $300 billion of goods exports to China in the last two years, compared to just over $230 billion in a couple of prior years, underline a rising China and a "resilient" Chinese demand is key to inject momentum in America's economy.

Rising imports from China is the biggest weapon of the U.S. lawmakers to fuel anti-China sentiments among Americans; this has helped America to lower prices for consumers and create jobs for businesses. A 2018 study estimated the level of the U.S. consumer price index in 2017 would have been 27 percent higher if the share of America's imports from China had stagnated to 1994 levels. Cheap Chinese imports also accelerate the U.S. clean energy transition as Beijing is estimated to account for about 80 percent of lithium-ion battery shipments in the country.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the U.S. companies in China had generated $573 billion in revenue and $38 billion of profit in 2019, bolstering the U.S. efforts to compete better globally. The total stock of Chinese investments, estimated at $145 billion in 2019, provided the U.S. government a critical source of funding as well as effortless, inexpensive capital for the industry.

With a large consumer base and integrated supply chains, China's economic recovery after COVID-19 reassured investors and contributed to high foreign direct and portfolio investment. As China reopens for the world again, investors are regaining confidence in government policies and are ready to put their money in the Chinese market including the technology sector.

For years, a large inflow of Chinese students and scientists contributed to billions of revenues, supported hundreds of thousands of jobs and helped the U.S. to sustain its leadership in innovation and technology. But the trend is reversing now over growing racism and hatred against Asians especially Chinese Americans. This doesn't prevent Chinese scientists from becoming an integral part of the global scientific community yet threatens to dethrone the U.S. as the world's science and technology leader.

Unequivocally, China is still much more open to trade and investment with the U.S., even compared with America's own allies and partners. By reneging on the basic principle of the establishment of the bilateral relationship in 1979, continuing tariffs and imposing restrictions on Chinese companies, the U.S. President Joe Biden's administration however has "broken" its promise and declared an "economic war" against Beijing.

Several studies have documented the negative impact of the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, hurting America's manufacturing sector, employment and even exports. These measures augur ill for the U.S. consumers as it has translated into about $169 billion, according to the U.S. Custom and Border Protection. This "aggressive approach" roughly costs $1,287 per American household ($168.837 billion/131.2 million households), more than the U.S. Congressional Budget Office forecasted ($1,277) in 2020.

The "draconian decoupling," some in the Biden administration are actively pursuing, will adversely affect the U.S. economy and consumers for the two economies are deeply entwined and the cost of such policies will be "uncomfortably high" for the American economy. This Cold War approach isn't going to sustain given strong China-U.S. economic interdependence.

China's advent as an economic and technology power continues to give the world a real hope to combat next-generation global challenges such as resurgent poverty, slowing global economy, future pandemics, energy and food crises, climate change and environmental degradation through cooperation in trade, digital economy, research and development, science and technology and other areas of common interests.

Americans may never know these facts from a polarization-rife U.S. political establishment that forever focuses on conflicts with China over fear, being honest, will puncture its Cold War fallacy. But the truth – an effective China-U.S. economic collaboration led to the "greatest reduction" of poverty in human history and a partnership between the two major stakeholders of world's peace and economy can deliver many productive outcomes to them and mankind – can't be hidden for too long by wandering balloon-like incidents.

*This is my opinion piece that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":