India is the major hitch in SCO success

By: Azhar Azam

My column that originally appeared in Pakistan today https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2019/06/20/india-is-the-major-hitch-in-sco-success/

The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit ended in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek last Friday amid a novel fray between Beijing and Washington on annexing new allies and under the bracing rapprochement between China and Russia.

As the trade tensions with China broil in the backdrop, US President Donald Trump is flying from North Pole to South Pole to discuss ideas with US allies how to route China and on the other hand, Chinese President Xi Jingping cozied up to Russian President Vladimir Putin to persuade New Delhi to join Beijing in calming down Washington’s trade war frenzy.

At the SCO forum, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi again vied for Xi’s support over alleged Pakistan patronage of militant activities in the disputed Indian-held Kashmir and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan urged international mediation to resolve the core Kashmir issue that has recurrently brought the two South Asian nations on the verge of a nuclear war.

The eternal victim of Trump’s oral crusades, Iran was also the part of the annual multilateral pact with observer status and pressed the member states to back Tehran in neutralizing US punitive measures and its military threats in the Persian Gulf.

American Cold War foe Russia’s president outlined the Kremlin approach for a Syrian settlement and spoke on the Iranian nuclear issue and “on actions within the framework of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group”. According to Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov, the Indo-Pak diplomatic spat was not on the agenda.

The USA should be closely observing the proceedings as the top leaderships of three of its rival countries– China, Russia, and Iran– were working to forge a collaborative alliance in response to Trump’s showdown with each of them. Washington, of course, seeks a split among them to eschew a converged trilateral front though beholding Trump’s chronicle, he won’t mind taking them on individually or simultaneously.

Whereas Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran would hope New Delhi would part ways with Washington after India has been volleyed hard by Trump on tariffs on US goods. Recently, he also removed India from special trade status that exempts billions of dollars of Indian goods from US tariffs.

In addition, before the US sanctions waiver ended on May 2, New Delhi was the second-largest buyer of Iranian oil after China but now its oil imports from Tehran have sunk to zero. Murky shades of CAATSA sanctions are looming on the Indian purchase of S-400 missile defence system from Russia too.

But New Delhi would be disinclined to construct an alliance that could aggravate the USA. At the same time, with the approaching meeting between Trump and Modi at the G-20 summit and Indian strife with China, India certainly would dislike any Chinese idea to confront the USA, which could jeopardize its strategic economic interests in the world’s largest economy.

The other problem with India is that it wants to embrace everyone concurrently that under the sprouting frictions among China and Russia and the USA, which is largely impracticable. It continues to seesaw in between Russia and the USA though its position apparently is substantially tilted towards Washington.

The Sino-Indian brawl and the massive Indian market alongside its ecstatic economic growth unleash enormous opportunities for the USA to milk it in bulk on Washington’s trade and strategic interests. As China and Pakistan share deep relations, New Delhi is the sole choice for Washington to confine China in the region.

Trump is very confident about India. In his interview with CNBC, his remark “he (Modi) reduced it (tariffs on Harley motorcycles) by 50 percent with one phone call” tells of his increasing faith about Indian cooperation with Trump administration and pro-U.S. Indian foreign policy.

U.S. President is optimistic to snatch a deal with Beijing as well. In a TV interview, he walled his protectionist trade policies stating because of tariffs, China is getting absolutely decimated by companies that are leaving the country.

He also slated his political rivals. “Had a Democrat gotten in (Hillary)…China would have caught us by the end of her term…Not with what I am doing. They’ll never catch us.” Trump further claimed that China wants to make a deal much more than he does.

In the meantime, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be embarking on a four-nation trip to India, Sri Lanka, Japan, and South Korea from June 24 to strengthen alliances with the countries against China and reassure US support for a free and open Indo-Pacific region.

Russia is the other contender for international domination. Counter to the US interests, the increased Russian engagement in Middle East and the escalating boldness of the Kremlin navy confronting U.S. warships in the blue waters makes it highly unlikely for India to pay heed to Moscow’s advice to patch-up with China or even sustain close relations with Russia itself, in the way it used to do in the past.

Under unassailable Indian compulsions and its greater stakes in Washington, the SCO summit concluded without any substantial outcome to the favour of China and Russia or to the disquiet of the USA. It was a regional festivity though.

Trump's behavior could further discredit US image

By: Azhar Azam

*The edited version of this article first appeared in CGTN https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d514d7867444d35457a6333566d54/index.html

The U.S. behavior towards its European Union (EU) allies has equivalently been intrusive but unfortunately, this domineering Washington’s mindset is spiraling under Trump administration. Washington and Brussels have been long-standing allies but Trump has been impulsively drumming the EU since his canvassing for the president.

Diplomatically, the truculent U.S. regime contends that its European allies are free to make their sovereign purchases but pragmatically, it has never vacillated to influence their decision-making capacity and has frequently prevented them to take an independent line.

In an interview to the British daily, the American President encouraged UK to refuse to pay 39 billion pounds Brexit divorce bill and “walk away” if Brussels does not bow to Britain’s demand. He further said that it was too late for Britain to follow his advice and “sue” the EU to give Britain greater “ammunition” in the talks.

Earlier in a pave-way trip for Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reached on a four-nation trip to Europe to make EU allies understand (forcefully) the risks associated with buying Huawei equipment and dealing with Iran or get ready to bear the consequences.

Trump has also been blowing up the U.S. European Union (EU) partners in the past at will – slapping tariffs on their aluminum and steel, calling them “delinquent” for not meeting the defense spending mark, and warning them on trade with Iran.

So, it’s the time for Trump to escalate the trade war and jolt the EU economy.

Earlier, EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom intuited the trade war escalation between the U.S. and the EU and alerted the bloc’s trade ministers that the U.S. President may hit the European companies and products with billions of pounds of tariffs as early as in July or August.

But Brussels will retaliate strongly just as it did on steel and aluminum previously. The EU officials have already made it clear to Washington that it would slap 20 billion euros of U.S. goods if they are going to tax their autos.

This time Trump’s tariff apparatus is not intended to strike a deal with EU but to enforce it on proscribing Huawei in the region and enact Washington sanctions on Iran. Trump’s prior 180-day deadline to negotiate with EU on reduction exports of cars to the United States also elaborates his dictatorial attitude even towards the American allies.

As a matter of fact, EU is largely beleaguered for its dogma to distance itself from Trump’s swathe of attacks on Beijing and for its repeated refutation to lean to the U.S. demands over restricting Huawei’s business operations and trade with Iran.

And on both issues, the UK too is supporting the EU as Britain, France, and Germany are developing a special purpose vehicle INSTEX that aims to facilitate the trade between EU and Iran, bypassing the US sanctions.

China isn’t just looking at the proceedings. As the trade tensions between China and the United States dazzle the world, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan just concluded his visit to Germany and departed to the Netherlands.

Wang’s trip to two of EU important countries is crucial since he is a top Xi aide and has formerly headed the trade talks with the United States.

Beijing and Berlin have strong trade ties. Germany has been China’s largest trading partner in Europe for 43 consecutive years while China has been the biggest trading partner of Germany for third successive years. The bilateral trade between China and Germany reached nearly 200 billion euros in 2018.

China and Germany are on the same page on Iran too. As both China and Germany are the signatories of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCOPA), the 2015 Vienna nuclear deal and are critical of U.S. policy on Iran – it is highly unlikely that Secretary Pompeo would have gained any positive feedback from Berlin on Iran or Huawei.

For Trump, any pact that bypasses the United States or benefits the U.S. adversaries is void. Therefore he moans about the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline – which runs from Russia to Europe across the Baltic Sea – accusing Germany for putting the European energy security at risk by working with Moscow.

Rainer Seele, the head of Austria-based oil and gas company OMV, lashed out at Washington for trying to “dictate” the energy policy to its EU allies, blaming that the United States wants to secure markets for its own gas supplies. He also urged Europe to protect the independence of its own countries.

Clearly, the United States is falling short of allies to deter China and with the continuing Trump’s sporadic behavior; it could quickly find itself into international pariahs as well.