Trumpomania is riding the European nerves

By: Azhar Azam

(axar.axam@gmail.com)

China has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to put the Beijing-Brussels relationship back on track. In his speech at the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the gathering of 180 leaders and defense chiefs that China will be a “force for stability” in the world and warned the West of making "historical mistake" under the aegis of de-risking, a coordinated transatlantic effort to prevent overreliance on China.

Tasked with the responsibility of mending the China-European Union (EU) ties, Wang visited Spain and announced to lift the ban on Spanish beef. Later on, he held discussions with the French President Emmanuel Macron and solicited his support to stabilize the Beijing-Brussels relationship. Trade remained France's key area of interest.

European leaders too are looking to engage China. While Wang's Spanish counterpart hailed his announcement as "extraordinarily positive" over its potential to calm angst of the farmers, protesting against and seeing the EU environment and other policies as a financial burden, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez described China as “fundamental partner” in the fight against climate change and for global peace and stability.

Paris is Beijing's one of most important partners in the EU. France was the first major Western country that formally recognized China in 1964; a red carpet welcome during Macron's China visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping last year demonstrated France's role in countering the US. The trick worked as on his way back home, Macron sought the EU to reduce dependency on America, underscored his vision of strategic autonomy and questioned whether it was in the bloc's interest to fuel the Taiwan crisis.

Macron-Xi telephone conversation in November as Beijing faced a Paris-sponsored anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electrical vehicles (though French officials insisted it was von der Leyen's call and didn't intend to hamstring the German auto industry)and Wang's commitment, ahead of his departure to Europe, China will continue to "expand the import of high quality products and services" attempted to curry favor with the French president on the China-EU relationship.

As two countries commemorate 60th anniversary of the establishment of the Sino-French diplomatic relations, celebration of 2024 as the Franco-Chinese Year of Cultural Tourism, an agreement to further strengthen cooperation on areas including climate change, clean energy and agriculture, consensus on contributing to peace and Xi's potential trip to France signal Paris' willingness to put a floor under the China-EU relations.

With Biden administration's protectionist measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act, designed to divert European investment to the Americas, serving the US own rather than shared interests – fear of Donald Trump's return to the White House is forcing the EU reconsider its approach toward China, a diplomatic win for Beijing that has long been urging Brussels to continue dialogue while maintaining differences.

During his recent trip to China, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide raised the human rights issue yet also held talks with Wang on trade, climate change, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and how to strengthen the international institutions. Resumption of strategic dialogue between China and Switzerland and review of economic, financial and scientific cooperation further indicate the European countries are bracing for Trump by making diplomatic overtures to Beijing.

China is willing to work with the EU to promote steady progress in China-EU relations in 2024, Xi told Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo who was on a state visit to Beijing in January. De Croo too hoped to start a “new era of Belgian-Chinese engagement” based on people-to-people ties, diplomatic partnerships and mutual prosperity, seeing the moment as a “timely opportunity” to engage Beijing in a tense geopolitical and economic environment and acknowledging that China and EU remain “important partners” in tackling many global challenges.

Factors such as greater trade restrictions, a trend set by the US and practiced freely by all, could sharply reduce the global economic output by 7% or about $7.4 trillion over the long term – reversing economic integration and undermining cooperation to protect against existing global challenges and new shocks – warned IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last year.

As the UN trade body estimates the global trade in goods in 2023 may contract by 5% or almost $2 trillion over geopolitical trends, Georgieva’s prediction is within the realm of possibility. With the multilateral trading system threatening to collapse and the specter of a new cold war not going away, Trumpomania is riding the European nerves.

The US has been a dominant global economic and technology power; the irony is that China, after showing staggering economic growth rates for years, is now projected to have overtaken America in 53 out of 64 critical and emerging technologies. While the US-led international economic order since 1945 helped bring an unprecedented era of growth, China is predicted to be the top growth source for the world over the next five years.

Confronted by an avalanche of economic and security challenges, Brussels is anticipating its crises to aggravate once Trump comes back and drives it to despair. The European countries are adapting to this looming reality and have increased engagement with Beijing.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in the Express Tribune:

ASEAN cautious of walking into the US trap

By: Azhar Azam
(axar.axam@gmail.com)

In a blistering press conference along with Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Melbourne during Australia-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) special summit, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pushed back against criticism that has been levied on Malaysia and regional countries for giving “additional focus” to Beijing, calling it as a “China-phobia” in the West.

“We are (an) independent nation, we are fiercely independent. We do not want to be dictated by any force. So, once we remain to be an important friend to the United States or Europe and here in Australia, they should not preclude us from being friendly to one of our important neighbors, precisely China,” Anwar responded to a question that was seen as resistance to the US pressure in the world media.

His remarks – just days after the Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in his speech to the Australian Parliament attempted to undermine regional peace and prosperity by calling upon Canberra and others to join forces in the face of alleged threats to the rule of law, peace and stability – represented ASEAN policy of safeguarding and promoting regional peace, security and stability; peacefully resolve all disputes through dialogue and fostering economic growth.

Relations between Beijing and Manila have been relatively stable under the former Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte. But Marcos’ rabble-rousing stance and Manila’s provocative actions, military drills with America and Australia in the South China Sea (SCS), explicit intent to gang up alliances in support of the US-led efforts to stoke tensions in the strategic waterways threaten to challenge the long-established status quo that has helped to uphold peace and encouraged economic cooperation across Asia-Pacific.

Most ASEAN states want to maintain good relations with Beijing and Washington without taking sides; Manila under Marcos has become more assertive in the SCS at the behest of the US, which seeks to cement alliances in Asia-Pacific and needs its former colony to stem the rise of China let it be at the cost of ASEAN's peace and prosperity.

Marcos, on the other hand, is not only using Philippines' partnerships with the US and allies to expand Manila's influence in the SCS but he also has been endeavoring to divide the ASEAN. Last November, he approached Malaysia and Vietnam to craft a separate Code of Conduct (COC) in the SCS even as China and ASEAN in July had agreed on guidelines and leaders at the 43rd ASEAN Summit in September had welcomed the progress achieved on the COC negotiations, snubbing ASEAN chair Indonesia's President Jokowi Widodo advice at the 18th East Asia Summit to all to lower the tension, refrain from creating new conflicts and create space for dialogue.

The Philippines' effort would meet with ambivalence since it attempts to pull apart the ASEAN unity and also because most Southeast Asian countries have historically maintained a pacifist approach toward Beijing, stressing on a diplomatic solution to the territorial disputes and prioritizing economic growth through cooperation with the world’s second largest economy.

Addressing the Lowy Institute, Macros sought a “conducive environment” for the success of the COC negotiations, highlighting the so-called threats to Manila’s sovereignty. His Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo urged regional nations to stand firmly together in opposing actions that were inconsistent with international law.

While developing a consensus on the final document, as Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien said at the summit, may take some time due to complexity of the issues, China is willing to implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the SCS and accelerate the COC negotiations, striving to reach a regional norm that is in line with the international law and will bring durable peace in the region.

The Philippines, meanwhile, is moving in sync with the US jarring grand strategy by playing up the China threat. Since assuming office, Marcos has almost doubled the number of its bases accessible to the US forces with military exercises extending to joint air and sea patrols over the SCS and close to Taiwan. These actions as well as Manila’s plan to upgrade its SCS outposts in addition to provoking Beijing threaten ASEAN’s goal of ensuring regional peace and pushing its growth.

Once Albanese and Marcos witnessed the signing of a several memoranda of understanding on areas including defense and maritime, the Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong announced millions of dollars in funding for the bloc’s maritime security citing “unsafe conduct at sea and in the air” yet deliberately ignored Canberra-Manila sea and air maneuvers across the territory. This stirred controversy in the middle of the summit as former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating slammed the "mindless pro-American" approach, citing Malaysia's rejection of "buying" the US "hegemony" in the region.

For regional countries, maritime cooperative activity between the armed forces of Australia and the Philippines involving navy vessels and frigates and air and maritime surveillance aircraft could be alarming. Canberra is a member of the trilateral AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) military alliance, which Indonesia and Malaysia see as an effort to start a nuclear arms race in Southeast Asia and Asia-Pacific.

As Australia and the Philippines feature as major treaty allies in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy that aspires to “explore opportunities for the Quad to work with ASEAN” to trigger tensions in the region in the name of Free and Open Indo-Pacific and freedom of navigation, it naturally becomes a collective responsibility of all the countries in the region to increase engagement to protect the regional stability.

Southeast Asia, the world’s “economic dark horse,” has a vast economic potential especially with its vibrant and increasingly tech-savvy young population and a combined gross domestic product of $3.3 trillion as of 2021. Given several ASEAN states including Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have acceded to the China-led community of a shared future and bilateral trade continues to demonstrate a robust growth, both Washington and allies are struggling to align the regional countries on the threat perception from China and ASEAN remains very careful of walking into the US trap.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in the China Daily:

Pacific is rapidly sliding into the great power rivalry

By: Azhar Azam

Papua New Guinea (PNG), an impoverished Pacific island nation – which witnessed the killing of more than soldiers, mostly Japanese, during Japan’s invasion of the country during the New Guinea Campaign in the Second World War – has turned into an epicentrum of great power competition between China and the US as well as the most sought-after country for the world powers over its potential to house natural resources and minerals such as liquefied natural gas, nickel and copper.

“We are baffled,” told Winnie Kiap, a former PNG diplomat to the Economist last year, “It’s like watching two elephants (China and the US) playing on a patch of grass and we are that patch.” In the Second World War “we were in a war that had nothing to do with us. This is a repetition of that kind of thinking."

The tug of war for influence in the Pacific intensified after China stunned the US and Australia by signing a surprise security deal with the Solomon Islands, raising fear of the Chinese military presence close to Canberra and Guam, the US main military base in the region. But the Solomon Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare defended the compact citing internal instability and sought all partners to “respect the (island’s) sovereign interests,” ensuring it was guided by his foreign policy of “Friends to all and Enemies to none.”

In a bid to counter China's overtures in the Pacific, America after 30 years of absence announced to reopen its embassy in Honiara and the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken signed a defense and maritime agreement PNG in an apparent attempt to deter Port Moresby and other Pacific countries from establishing security ties with Beijing.

Here the PNG Prime Minister James Marape guarded himself against criticism from former Prime Minister Peter O’Neill and opposition leader Joseph Lelangan who accused him of putting “at the epicenter of a military storm" between China and the US and stressed PNG shouldn't be "blinded by the dollar sign or be coerced into signing (detrimental) deals." But the specter of a new cold war loomed large with Prime Minister of India (a Quad member state) Narenda Modi arriving in the region at the same time and Marape felicitating him as the "leader of the Global South."

But PNG soon found itself between a rock and a hard place once its Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko said in January Port Moresby was in "early stages of negotiation" with Beijing on a potential security and policing deal and the US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma warned PNG of the "high cost" that would come with the Chinese commitment, urging PNG to turn down the compact.

PNG isn’t the only Pacific nation, China has offered assistance on policing. Beijing last year sent police experts and equipment to Vanuatu to maintain public order in the country after the signing an agreement with the Solomon Islands on “law enforcement and security matters.” Australia raised concerns about China’s policing role in the country even as Canberra too had its police deployed in the neighboring island.

Marape is keen to develop economic relations with China for other than a large economy, it is a key export market of Pacific countries' natural resources and a major source of incoming tourism. That's why, the PNG and others have to navigate a tough diplomatic line in the middle of risks of getting itself trapped in the China-US rivalry.

America's sharp retort forced Marape to open up a little about his foreign policy approach during his trip to Australia. Stating he couldn't not ignore huge commercial opportunities being offered to PNG by Beijing, the PNG prime minister said "We will not compromise our relations with China … We also believe that someone else's enemy is not my enemy." At the same, he attempted to calm the US and Australian concerns. "When I went to Beijing they steered clear of security conversations. They honored us in the economic space.”

The US has been seeing China’s engagement in the Pacific as an effort to “destabilize” the region; one wonders how would the Biden administration’s opaque deals that didn’t provide little details and budget – encompassing more than $7.1 billion for the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau under the Compacts of Free Association in exchange for basing rights for military and other activities – would bring stability to the region while intensifying strategic competition with China.

Australia in December signed security agreement with PNG to address its security needs and “support each other’s security and regional stability.” Like other deals with China and the US, details of this pact weren't published either. While Beijing’s compact invited “further regional contest,” how Canberra’s and America’s security treaties could trigger peace and harmony in the Pacific?

Another reason for the US profound interest in the Pacific is to prevent the regional states from cutting ties with Taiwan. Still, another of the Pacific island countries, Nauru, recently severed ties with Taiwan and switched its allegiance to China, leaving Taipei with a handful of allies as Tuvalu prepares to make such a diplomatic shift. Ironically, the US allies in the Pacific, providing a strategic buffer to America and allowing it to base missiles in Palau, are threatening to shift their diplomatic recognition to China for economic assistance if Washington fails to pass the proposed funding.

These security arrangements developments are rapidly culminating in militarization of the region, and shaping the Pacific into a theater of influence for international powers. The upshots of these phenomena will be highly consequential for the Pacific since they will exacerbate development and climate crises in a region that is exposed to disproportionate impacts of climate change coupled with rising sea levels, extreme weather events and coastal erosion. Hawkish US Congressmen and some Pacific nations' approach to exploit the US-China tensions is making these challenges and the regional peace situation even dire.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in the Express Tribune

Central Asia steers clear of becoming a geopolitical playhouse

By Azhar Azam

Central Asia, due to its terrestrial location to sit at the confluence of China, Russia, South Asia and the Middle East, and potential to serve as a gateway to Europe, long captured attention of global powers; the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Ukraine war and battle for geopolitical influence has considerably elevated the region's strategic importance.

While the European Union (EU) has committed to invest €10 billion in sustainable transport network including the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), the US support of Central Asia's about making their "own choices" and helping them develop their transportation infrastructure with an eye to exploit the region's potential in producing rare earth metals threaten to fabricate Central Asia into a geopolitical and geostrategic arena.

Such risks swell sharply given Washington hasn't historically afforded Central Asia the attention it gave to other parts of the world. The US interest in the region waned further once it no longer needed Central Asia as a conduit to wreak havoc in Afghanistan, redefining its foreign policy and shifting focus from South to Southeast Asia to offset the so-called China threat.

Even in the early one and a half year of the Ukraine crisis, America's interest was absent in the region until the US President Joe Biden hosted a C5+1 summit with the five Central Asian leaders in September and pledged to solidify security, clean energy and economic partnership including through investment in and development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

The so-called Middle Corridor – which begins from Southeast Asia and China, runs through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and further to European countries – holds a great significance for the participating economies in terms of trade and reduced travel times; what effectively drove America to cajole the region was the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with the regional leaders in May that promised to seal close economic and security relations between China and Central Asia.

An overriding goal behind the European Union (EU) wooing of the region has been to end its reliance on Russian’s oil and gas, seek alternative corridor that don’t depend on Moscow and diversify its sources of critical raw materials; the US too sees Central Asia as critical to seize rare earth minerals to break China's near monopoly. Biden's newfound initiative to ameliorate relations with the region, hence, could at best be declared as reactionary rather than proactive, intending to take advantage of Central Asia's geopolitical and geostrategic importance.

But challenges to these objectives emanate from the Central Asian states' close ties with China. Bilateral trade between Beijing and Central Asia in 2022 hit $70 billion with Kazakhstan accounting for $31 billion and Xi and the Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the China-Central Asia summit agreeing to build the “enduring friendship” and share “weal and woe.” The China-Kazakh partnership would further bolster as Beijing-Astana trade in 2023 has surpassed $41 billion and 80% of the railroad transportation between China and EU goes through Kazakhstan.

The region has struck a very fine balance in its approach toward both Europe and Russia. It was on display when Central Asia welcomed the EU leaders and Kazakhstan received applauds from the French President Emmanuel Macron for “refusing to be a vassal of any power,” a veiled shot at Russia, while having around at the same time hailing the Kazakh relations with Russia as “multi-faceted,” which would determine the course of “strategic” cooperation.

Kazakhstan is the biggest player in Central Asia for being a large economy and its role to act as a transit route for transportation of goods between Asia and Europe. This unique position has urged Asana to remain stick to its multi-vector foreign policy, which seeks good relations with Russia, China, Europe, US and rest of the world without condoning the Russian war in Ukraine.

This equilibrium has helped the region to prevent it from becoming a theater of a new "great game" or geopolitical competition with Europe stepping into the “backyard” of China and Russia. Europe’s or the US abrupt note of Central Asia’s geostrategic importance, following decades of the region's abstraction from their priorities, cannot change this strategy overnight.

Tweaking this balanced policy perhaps isn’t needed either given it has helped Astana and the region to safeguard its national economic and security interests by simultaneously sustaining strong trade ties with Beijing and Moscow, benefiting from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), becoming a critical mineral supplier to Brussels and maintaining good relations with Washington.

Uzbekistan, another Central Asian state, is also actively pursuing an omnidirectional policy. The Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's recent visit to Beijing where he upgraded the Uzbekistan-China relationship to "all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership.", following meetings with Macron and Italian President Sergio Mattarella, showed Tashkent was open to every country that could invest and contribute to the Uzbek economic, infrastructure, green and tech development.

By implementing the trans-Afghan corridor, the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway project that will connect the three countries as well as the EU, Russia, India and Southeast countries but stalled once Taliban took power in Afghanistan, Tashkent seeks to leverage this and other projects to enhance its attractiveness as a trans-regional transit bridge and by benefitting from tariffs. The corridor, estimated between about $5 billion and $6 billion, has a great potential in terms of trade and regional connectivity as progress is being made with officials of the three countries holding discussions in Islamabad last month.

Initiatives such as the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity (CASA-1000) electricity transmission project, designed to transport 1,300 megawatt of hydropower from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, could contribute to the Afghan and Pakistan's clean transition, battle against climate change and reduce power outages. Even as Taliban lack the means to fund the projects as well as international legitimacy, the World Bank is extending financial support to Dushanbe to implement the project. Ashgabat, on the other hand, has also been making efforts to revive the dormant Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline although the project is encountering boredom from India.

Like South Asia – one the world’s least integrated regions over conflicts, inter-state rivalries and great power competition despite facing common challenges – Central Asia is poorly connected to one another and the rest of the world, hindering intra- and inter-regional connectivity for decades. But unlike South Asian countries, the Central Asian states have managed to overwhelm geopolitical competition and instead are aggressively attempting to capitalize on their strategic location, keeping eyes to improving their connectivity with all and uplifting the region's and individual country's economic profile.

While Mirziyoyev approached Qatar in December to back the trans-Afghan corridor, the Tajik President Emomali Rahmon in the same month met with the World Bank’s President Ajay Banga to jump-start the CASA-1000. Dushanbe has also extended its electricity supply agreement with Taliban, which will help it to influence Kabul to expedite work on the CASA-1000.

These attempts are backed by China whose foreign minister in May produced a joint statement with his counterparts from Afghanistan and Pakistan, supporting the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan as well as the trans-Afghan railway, CASA-1000 and TAPI projects as initiatives to enhance regional connectivity and prosperity.

In a bid to attract transit container trains and the EU involvement in the Middle Corridor, Kazakhstan is considering fixing the tariff rates for five years. As Kazakhstan has removed Taliban from its terrorist list, this will help Astana to retain its access to large Afghan, Pakistani and Indian markets and create new transportation and logistics routes in the region to enter the Gulf and the Middle East through the Pakistani ports of Karachi and Gwadar, bringing a boon for the Kazakh exporters and economy.

Astana unveiled its domestic infrastructure initiative, Nurly Zhol (Bright Path), in 2014. Just a couple of years later, it aspired to integrate the project with China’s Silk Road Economic Belt citing similarities between the two projects such as trade facilitation, transit transportation and development of reliable transport and logistics infrastructure. In 2019, the Chinese and Kazakh leaders agreed to implement the cooperation plan to connect the two initiatives. Underpinned by its appeal to serve as an overland freight transport corridor between China and Europe, Kazakhstan is expected to drive economic growth over the next five years owing to increased BRI investments.

The world’s largest landlocked country, which referred to itself as a buckle in the BRI, launched the China-backed Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) in 2018. This ambition to transform Uzbekistan into a regional financial center by becoming Luxemburg-style intermediary between the large nations and a gateway for foreign investment in Central Asia is paying off as the AIFC as of 2022 had resulted in registration of 1,738 companies from 70 countries, mostly from leading economies such as China, the EU, the UK, the US, Singapore and India.

Amid its efforts to turn itself into a major Eurasian transport and logistics hub between North and South as well as emerge as epicenter of green, economic, industrial and technological development, China’s steadfast support of Central Asia’s growth agenda is one of the major factors the Central Asian people are bullish on economic relations with Beijing.

Latest stats from Urumqi Customs, revealing Xinjiang’s exports to five Central Asian states in 2023 had topped $34 billion at a staggering increase of 23.2%, underscore the regional countries and the wider Asia have rejected the US-led smear campaign to put a drag on autonomous region’s economy through sanctions and legislative proposals. The deepening Beijing-Central Asia ties on economy, trade and security are demonstrative of the region's firm resolve not to allow anyone to concoct the region into a geopolitical playhouse for their vested interests.

Uzbekistan policies show the way to developing world

By: Azhar Azam

Ahead of his trip to Beijing, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in his article for the People's Daily didn't desist from pouring lavish praise on China. Not only the Uzbek leader admired Chinese President Xi Jinping's global development, security and civilization initiatives as an effort to significantly address the global challenges and accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and inclusive future, he also aligned Tashkent's vision of regional and international security with Beijing.

Mirziyoyev has paid several visits to China, underscoring Beijing's growing importance in his economic and development agenda. His objective to strengthen "multifaceted" relations with Beijing further expounds that China will be a centerpiece of his foreign and regional policy and ambition of green transition.

During his October's trip to Beijing to attend the third Belt and Road Forum, Mirziyoyev struck a mollifying tone as he expressed gratitude to Xi for the invitation and stressed China's investments and number of Chinese companies had increased fivefold and tripled respectively, expecting bilateral trade to exceed $10 billion by the end of 2023.

The Uzbek leader's campaign has worked given the Chinese enterprises with investment participation are the second-largest in the country, China accounts for more than one-fifth of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade (21.3%) and bilateral trade in 2023 has far exceeded his expectations, reaching $14 billion. Once he put China as one of his top foreign policy priorities, it helped Tashkent sign several agreements with Beijing.

In his last visit, Mirziyoyev called for international unity on the "Green Silk Road," which was first proposed by Xi in Uzbekistan in 2016, and fully supported the green initiative over its potential to shape the agenda for a “common green future. Construction of 400 megawatt solar photovoltaic power plant by PowerChina and Mirziyoyev's meetings with Chinese energy companies in October described he was moved by their ability to deploy modern engineering solutions in electricity transmission networks and implement solar, wind and hybrid power projects.

Just last month, the Uzbek leader revealed his warmth for China when he gave plaudits to his strategic partner for completing projects at an “astonishingly” pace of as little as nine months. Mirziyoyev continues to hail China's progress on the large scale joint investments projects, which had helped Tashkent making important strides in developing green energy and creating 27 gigawatts of renewable energy generation capacity by 2030.

While cooperation with the "undisputed global leader" in renewable energy would solidify Tashkent's energy security and environmental sustainability, the first hydrogen plant in the country and region will save some 33 million cubic meters of gas every year, decarbonize heavy industries as well as add a new engine of growth and raise Tashkent’s international profile.

China and Uzbekistan are promoting active cooperation on infrastructure too. The Chinese-built Angren-Pap railway line, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan transport corridor and four routes of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline that pass through Uzbekistan, denote a region-wide consensus on developing intra- and inter-regional infrastructure to push trade, enhance connectivity and bring prosperity.

Once finalized, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project will give Central Asia the shortest and most accessible passage to global markets, bringing billions of dollars of investments to the region. Reconstruction projects such as the 87 kilometer A380 highway by China have buttressed Uzbek's transportation infrastructure, ensuring fast delivery of goods; cooperation on logistics is also making progress.

Electric transport network in Uzbekistan would also get a boost as per the Uzbek energy ministry, an agreement was reached between China and Uzbekistan in December to jointly produce 70 centralized and 50,000 non-centralized electricity vehicle (EV) charging stations in the country by 2033, providing energy to 700,000 EVs. Some 2,500 of these units are expected to be installed by the end of 2024. Even as leading Chinese tech firms such as Huawei, BYD and ZTE are operating in Uzbekistan, Mirziyoyev intends to foster industrial cooperation with these giants to transform the country into a leading technology hub through establishment of high-tech industries and technology parks.

Education cooperation is another area of Uzbekistan's interest. Through construction of education infrastructure (Finding #5), technical training and scholarships (Table 5), China has expanded its influence in the Central Asian state as well as instilled interest in the Uzbeks, especially among Generation Z, to learn the Chinese language. A couple of Confucius Institutes in Samarkand and Tashkent; Mirziyoyev wants to deepen cooperation in the field of Chinese language teaching that in turn would help him to train a workforce capable of learning and applying China's development practices.

Over the last three decades, the China-Uzbekistan comprehensive strategic partnership has grown substantially. The high-level political exchanges in the last couple of years, this robust engagement, per Uzbek estimates, has translated into agreements and trade contracts worth $40 billion as Chinese investors continue to invest heavily in green energy, oil and gas, telecommunications and automotive industry among others.

First strategic dialogue in November, Tashkent's support of Beijing's efforts "to implement the reunification of Taiwan," Mirziyoyev's backing of Xi’s global initiatives and upgradation of ties to "all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership" signal the Uzbek president is dismissive of geopolitics and global great power rivalry and that he will put out all the stops to curry favor from China in the areas of economy, trade and investment, infrastructure development, industrial cooperation, technology transfer, green transition and to kick- the start construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, a lesson the developing countries should learn to transform their economies.

Wang Yi's trip to strengthen China-Brazil ties, boost convergence on global issues

By: Azhar Azam

Following his Africa trip, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visiting Brazil and Jamaica at their invitation from January 18 to 22.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of China-Brazil diplomatic relations. After Beijing became Brasilia's top trading partner in 2009, the bilateral ties were elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2012.

Under Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – who bankrolled transformational social programs like "Bolsa Familia," which means "Family Allowance," during his first term partly thanks to China's massive demand for Brazil's commodities and helped him lift roughly 20 million people out of poverty per the World Bank – the China-Brazil relationship experienced stable development. Once Lula returned to the presidency last year, he pledged to "consolidate" Brasilia's relations with Beijing.

China and Brazil are entwined in a close economic relationship. Beijing buys almost one-third of all Brazilian exports. Bilateral trade between China and Brazil, according to the Brazilian government's statistics, had expanded from $3.2 billion in 2001 to a record high of $150.5 billion in 2022. Beijing is one of the major sources of foreign direct investment in Brasilia particularly in power generation, oil extraction, telecommunications, financial services, and industry. Between 2007 and 2020, China invested $66 billion in the country as Brazil received almost half of all Chinese investments in Latin America.

The China-Brazil relationship is characterized as primarily economic but Lula wants to see this partnership go beyond trade. His April 2023 visit to Beijing – where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping, which resulted in 15 agreements and Brazilian Real 50 billion (over $10 billion) investments from China – indicated the cooperation was expanding from trade to space collaboration, research and innovation, digital economy, information technology, automotive industry, and renewable energy. Lula's trip, hence, not only broadened the relationship, but it contested claims that Chinese investments in Brazil had plunged significantly.

Dismissing the U.S.-led Western concerns and defending his country's pursuit of Chinese communication and semiconductor technology, Lula hailed Brasilia's relations with Beijing as "extraordinary" and warned, "Nobody can stop Brazil from continuing to develop its relationship with China." His comments, soon after holding a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden in the White House, signaled an outright snub to America's efforts to suppress China's technological advancement.

In what was Lula's third state visit and first after assuming office, both sides issued a comprehensive joint declaration on cooperation from bilateral to international issues including Ukraine. Described as "the most comprehensive" by the Brazilian government, the joint declaration reflected the two countries' shared interests and common views in key areas.

Amid America's efforts to fuel the Ukraine conflict, Lula sought the U.S. to "stop encouraging war and start talking about peace." On war in the Middle East, Brazil has also condemned forced displacement of Palestinians, while supporting peace and advocating for the two-state solution.

2024 marks the beginning of a new stage of a strong China-Brazil strategic partnership as in the first year of Lula's headship, Brazil's exports to China for the first time ever have transcended the $100 billion barrier surging 16.5 percent to about $106 billion. This increased trade could well be linked with Lula's visit and a reconciliatory approach toward China; it would further help him fund the country's social welfare program and push the poverty rates that have remained stagnant over the recent years.

China, the world's top consumer of soybeans and one of the biggest corn buyers internationally, was once a key market for the U.S. But America's China policy has stoked fears in the Chinese importers, urging them to reduce their dependence on the U.S. for corn and soybeans purchases. As Washington risks the interests of its own farmers and loses agricultural influence globally, Brasilia and other nations are solidifying their ties with Beijing to take advantage of the vast Chinese market.

Renewable energy cooperation is being augmented with the State Grid Corporation of China last month winning the largest-ever electricity transmission line auction in Brazil. The company will invest Brazilian Real 18.1 billion ($3.6 billion) to build 1,513 kilometers of lines to transport energy generated from renewable sources in the northeast to other parts of the country.

The Brazilian oil and gas giant Petrobras plans to create a Chinese subsidiary to accelerate oil refining, fertilizer projects, and green transition. The Chinese automaker BYD has also announced to invest more than $600 million in Brazil to build its first electric vehicle plant outside Asia with a capacity to produce 150,000 cars per year, inaugurating the construction of a new factory.

China is Brazil's promising partner. There is a great convergence between the two states to strengthen strategic communication and cooperation on crucial regional and global issues such as fighting climate change, and inequality, accelerating growth and energy transition, reforming international institutions, and promoting world peace. Wang Yi's trip will reaffirm this commitment and boost the China-Brazil strategic partnership.

*My article that first appeared at CGTN:

Why are Americans so disappointed?

By: Azhar Azam

2023 was a "great year" for American workers as the economy created 2.7 million jobs, said U.S. President Joe Biden in a statement on the December jobs report, arguing strong job creation continued despite inflation dropping to the pre-pandemic level of 2 percent over the last six months.

But polls show the voters, ahead of elections, are unenthused about his handling of the economy. Frustration within the White House is growing as Biden's approval ratings plunge to as low as 34 percent with about two-thirds of Americans disapproving of his performance including on inflation and jobs.

Polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight, showing the gap between Biden's approval and disapproval had doubled in the last 12 months, and other unacceptably low poll numbers, finding him particularly vulnerable vis-a-vis economic concerns, refute his claim that 2023 was "one more great year in the books."

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's survey expected a 0.2 percentage point decline in short-term inflation in November to 3.4 percent, the lowest reading since April 2021; it far exceeded the Fed's 2 percent annual target. Prices fell in the month for the first time in more than three and a half years but just marginally over sinking gas prices as underlying pressures on services such as apartment rents, restaurant meals and auto insurance were stubbornly high.

While an increase in core inflation indicates interest rates will likely remain on hold for many months to follow, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's nowcast data estimates inflation measured by headline consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI to rise 0.30 percent and 0.33 percent respectively. This would represent a surge from October and November readings and mark a stunning increase of more than 17 percent since Biden took office even if it doesn't change much, which is highly unlikely as December data is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2 percent in the month and by 3.2 percent on an annual basis.

America added 216,000 jobs in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, beating all forecasts; experts saw "a lot of noise" in the data once the agency revised down its October and November job total by a combined 71,000 jobs. These cracks further urged them to see the labor market slow "pretty substantially" unless the Fed cut the interest rate.

Payroll employment did rise, as Biden boasted, by 2.7 million in 2023 yet it dwarfed 4.8 million and 7.27 million jobs created in 2022 and 2021. The unemployment rate also remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, keeping some 6.3 million people unemployed. Per Gallup, Biden's approval slightly improved yet it was worse than the past seven U.S. presidents at this point in time.

Nominal wages increased; inflation generally eroded Americans' earnings, a trend that continued throughout the year. Average hourly earnings rose but economists warned the report "speaks to the bumpy road ahead for the Fed's journey back to 2 percent inflation." The data didn't account for the rising geographic income inequality, which according to the country's Department of Commerce, had continued to climb in recent years, skyrocketing by more than 40 percent between 1980 and 2021.

Household income is unevenly distributed across America. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in November described this huge disparity in its November report that projected average income before transfers and taxes of the highest quintile or one fifth of 129 million American households ($357,800) in 2020 to be 16 times the average income of the lowest fifth ($21,900).

Income after transfers and taxes reduced the great discrepancy but the gap between low- and high-income households was, notwithstanding, very significant. These revelations will stoke sentiments of many Americans who believe "inequality is rising."

Moody's is the only one of the three main rating agencies that in November maintained its highest AAA credit rating for the U.S. yet it also lowered the U.S. outlook from stable to negative, raising the risk that America's rating may be downgraded in a year or two. The potential of such a scenario cannot be ruled out as the two primary reasons for downgrading the U.S. outlook, weakening debt affordability and intensifying political polarization, won't go away anytime soon.

In 2020, the CBO predicted the U,S, gross federal debt would eclipse $34 trillion in 2029; it exceeded the forecast several years sooner just recently after topping $33 trillion in September, translating into an addition of $1 trillion roughly in the quarter. This "boiling frog" phenomenon with government bills exceeding revenue by the early 2030s and despair of not seeing an end to the poisonous polarization is posing political and economic challenges to the U.S. economy, prompting the country to create greater economic equality to prevent the downfall of capitalism against rival economic systems.

The U.S. federal agency further sees America's economic growth slowing to 1.5 percent and unemployment rising to 4.4 percent in 2024 amid calls of not ruling out another rate hike, which together will undo the U.S. sporadic progress on inflation and job and wage growth.

The successive U.S. administrations' protectionist policies, a trade war with China, and slow motion decoupling (now de-risking) indeed have added to pressure on the country's economy and shifted focus from Americans. As a result, they, a majority of whom are still living paycheck to paycheck and considering rate inflation as their top concern, believe the country's economy is in recession and rate it negatively.

*My article that first appeared at CGTN:

Why is Biden pursuing a trade truce with China?

By: Azhar Azam

Unveiling her 2024 strategy, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said America didn’t seek to “decouple” from China because it would be “damaging” to both economies with negative global repercussions, stressing two economies had an obligation to drive collective action for the benefit of the people and global economies.

Washington appears to realize an improved economic relationship with Beijing is important for its economy, job market and businesses. It was mirrored in Yellen’s speech that acknowledged US exports to China, Chinese investments and key inputs from Beijing could generate employment and strengthen America’s competitiveness internationally.

Trajectory of the vital relationship is gearing toward rapprochement but US allegations on China of deploying unfair economic practices while maintaining tariffs and export and investment controls on Chinese products and companies pose a persistent threat to make such a joint effort.

Per US data, duties assessed on China products have exceeded more than $198 billion. These tariffs, including on goods of no strategic value for US national security, have hit the consumer pockets and hammered competitiveness of the exporters relying on China for intermediate inputs as bipartisan bets such as the House Select Committee on China strategy to win economic competition with Beijing put Washington's mission to manage the relationship in peril.

Proposals like moving Beijing to a new tariff column as outlined in the report would essentially revoke Beijing’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status and drastically raise tariffs on Chinese products, suggesting President Joe Biden's effort to build a floor under the China-US relationship is facing strong challenges from China hawks.

Tariff increases have inflicted sizable negative impacts on the US economy and job market. An Oxford Economics report in November identified America had reaped “substantial benefits” from enhanced trade with China since it gained PNTR status. Stating a sixfold tariff increase on China since 2018 had reduced US jobs and output, it warned tariff hikes could cost America up to 744,000 jobs by 2025 and trigger $1.6 trillion loss in GDP over a 5-year horizon.

While this policy could have immediate catastrophic inflationary impacts on consumers, potentially undoing the US economy’s “soft landing” and in part is based on a false premise that China’s economic system is “incompatible” with the WTO, it also undermine administration's goal to lower production costs and create even more jobs, putting US businesses at disadvantage to their global peers.

Due to devastating effects of some of its recommendations, CATO Institute warns it may constitute violations by the US of its own WTO treaty obligations. The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed several recommendations, denouncing China's policies, but described the repeal of Beijing's PNTR status as a "blunt instrument" over its potential to "heap" high costs on Americans without radically altering the supply chains.

In his meeting with Biden, China's President Xi Jinping emphasized on working together to overwhelm global economic and security riptides. Where this rare engagement sent a reassuring signal to America’s business leaders about cooperation, it exasperated the Select Committee’s chairman Mike Gallaghar who sought a complete list of individuals and companies that bought tickets to dine with Xi and paid $40,000 to sit at his table.

China is still a lucrative market for many of them. Recent import and supply chain expos in China, which pulled scores of companies from the US and Europe, underscored this trend. A 32% surge in new foreign-invested companies across China in the first 10 months, per China's commerce ministry, shows China hasn't lost that much appeal as a foreign investment destination as portrayed. The Select Committee’s green-eyed view, however, could derail the sporadic sign of truce and spoil the moment for the US businesses.

Capital flight from China has made quite a few headlines. Beijing's first-ever quarterly foreign investment deficit, dubbed as a success of the West’s "de-risking" strategy, may be partly right yet ignores the other angle of the spectrum. The Chinese auto manufacturers, for instance, are quietly relocating their operations to Mexico. While this capital outflow is helping them to challenge American and European rivals by capturing their market share, it could allow them to circumvent 27.5% tariffs as well as take advantage of the US-Mexico trade agreement and burgeoning Mexican exports to America.

Speculations about China's economic downfall are exaggerated too. Although leading international financial watchdogs such as IMF and ADP have slashed their 2024 growth projections for China, economists don’t see the Chinese economy in trouble or "dire straits." Even at 4.6% growth rate, Beijing is poised to comfortably leapfrog the major developed economies.

Over the last year or so, top executives of several US conglomerates such as Tesla, Starbucks, and JPMorgan have visited China. These trips as well as the US major arm supplier Raytheon's Greg Hayes' declaration China "is too big, too important and too necessary to the US economy" and Tim Cook’s characterization of Apple's relationship with Beijing as "symbiotic" reveal American firms' craving for the big Chinese market.

With some of the CEOs of these blue-chip companies wooing Xi in San Francisco, like it or not, Biden will have to work with Beijing. And any truce in the trade war between China and the US, regardless where it comes from, should be welcomed for it would benefit the international economy, people, countries such as Pakistan that needs both China and the US to trounce its strategic and economic roadblocks as well as prevent further economic fragmentation and bring more stability to the world.

US bullying can't stop the rise of China's semiconductor industry

By: Azhar Azam

The license of the Dutch Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (ASML) to ship some of its equipment to China has been partially revoked, said the Veldhoven-based company in a statement on its website citing discussions with the U.S. government. The move will have a limited impact on China; the latest episode again exposes America's coercive efforts to undermine the trade and technology interests of two sovereign states.

For several years, the U.S. has been forcing the Netherlands to limit chip-making equipment exports to China; the Dutch government resisted, stating it would "not copy the U.S. export restrictions for China one-to-one." "We make our own assessment," said the country's Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher in November 2022.

Last year, Washington reportedly called Amsterdam about the matter but was asked to contact the ASML directly. In the recent development, it's revealed the Biden administration has pushed the ASML to cancel shipments of three top-of-the-line deep ultraviolet lithography machines even before export bans were due to come into effect.

Peter Wennink, the company's chief executive officer, publicly exposed the U.S. bullying last year when he warned: "The more you put them (China) under pressure, the more likely it is that they will double up their efforts." The export ban on chip-making equipment will cost the Netherlands billions of dollars as China was estimated to have imported some $3.7 billion worth of these chip-making systems between July and November alone.

America's campaign to prevent China's access to semiconductor equipment began in 2018 under the Trump administration. Amsterdam, under U.S. pressure, withheld an export license in 2019 that would have allowed ASML to ship its extreme ultraviolet machines. Reason being the U.S. couldn't sanction the company given its products didn't make up for more than 25 percent of the U.S.-made components, required to block the ASML from selling to China.

U.S. President Joe Biden continued his predecessor's policy and kept lobbying the Dutch government to deny this equipment to China. This approach has been driven by geopolitics: thwart China's ambitions of self-dependence and ensure America's dominance in the semiconductor industry, which for decades powered the country's hegemony in economy, military and technology.

Reckoning U.S. share of semiconductor manufacturing capacity had dropped to 12 percent, a study by the Boston Consulting Group and the Semiconductor Industry Association projected Beijing to have the world's largest share of chip production by 2030 with East Asia accounting for 75 percent of the global chip production. A new fab in the U.S., it said, would cost up to 50 percent more than the one in China, stoking fears in Washington that Beijing could upend its global dominance and urging it to politicize the trade relationships.

As Europe joined the U.S. technology Cold War with China, Wennink warned it wouldn't prevent China from developing its own semiconductor industry. On the contrary, it could decelerate the European industry. "In 15 years, they'll be able to do it all by themselves – and their market (for European suppliers) will be gone."

Even American chipmakers expect their government to protect their interests in China which last year was the largest single market, accounting for an estimated of about $180 billion or more than one-third of global semiconductor purchases. After meeting the U.S. Secretary Antony Blinken following his China visit, the U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in last July said the restrictions shouldn't be so broad "that you deny American companies revenue and China can get the product elsewhere."

Rather than addressing their grievances, America opted to shut down other markets for China. Schreinemacher comments in September that the Netherlands had considered "the technological developments and geopolitical context," were a bitter reminder Amsterdam was being forced to take such harsh actions. Washington also pushed other countries to adopt similar measures; South Korea raised concerns about the U.S. Chips Acts for its potential to "deepen business uncertainties (and) violate companies' management and technology rights."

As the U.S. blockade of China's semiconductor industry continues to create disruption, affecting efficiency and innovation globally, and the Biden administration expands measures in an attempt to hobble China's tech growth, these curbs have boosted the capability of the Chinese toolmakers that are getting large orders in the domestic market. Huawei last year caused a stir after the Chinese tech giant launched its Mate 60 Pro with a 7-nanometer chip, exemplifying Beijing can compete with the world's best even without access to U.S. suppliers.

Announcing new rules to halt the shipments of more advanced chips designed by Nvidia and others to China, Raimondo in last October insisted Beijing would still import hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. semiconductors yet the California-based chip designer, which has commanded over 90 percent share of China's artificial intelligence chip market, expected a steep drop in its quarterly sales in China. It has launched a modified version of one of its chips; experts say America's restrictions are helping create opportunities for domestic suppliers.

The SEMI, an association of semiconductor production equipment vendors, says China will be third in fab equipment spending worldwide in 2024. But despite the U.S. constraints, it sees Chinese manufacturers investing in mature process nodes.

This commitment to achieve self-dependence is also reflected in the SEMI's most recent quarterly World Feb Forecast which expects global semiconductor production in 2024 to increase to the tune of 30 million wafers per month (wpm) for the first time on the back of 8.6 million wpm capacity growth in China. This indicates Washington could have delayed Beijing's chip advancement but it cannot overturn China's tech rise.

*My article that first appeared at CGTN:

What’s behind EU newest charm offensive against Africa?

By: Azhar Azam

November 2023 marked 139 years since beginning of the Scramble for Africa when on 15-November-1884, European leaders gathered for the Berlin Conference in Germany for colonization of Africa and closed the assembly on 26-February-1885 once they agreed to split the continent into 53 countries and divvy up among themselves.

After almost a century and a half, Europe's strategy has changed but neither whereabouts nor objectives as fretful of losing Africa in a fierce geopolitical competition and over its growing role in the bloc's clean energy transition, European Union (EU) has relaunched its charm offensive against Africa through an African-EU investment package of €150 billion and the G-20 Compact with Africa (CwA) and related summits in Berlin.

The CwA initiative, established under Germany’s G20 presidency in 2017 that seeks to boost investments and development in the world’s poorest but fastest-growing region, was hosted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and witnessed the attendance of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

With the Ukraine war – during which the bloc noticed not many countries were on its side, acting as a rude awakening – an urgency to secure energy supply from Africa after the Hamas-Israel war and need of the continent's political support, natural resources, skilled labor and IT professionals is driving the EU to warm up to Africa.

But as the EU tries to win favor on a continent, "deep wounds" of colonial rule are yet to heal. Last year, Germany in an attempt to address its “dark colonial history” returned some precious artifacts, looted by the UK soldiers during the colonial rule from Benin, to Nigeria; Abuja has been demanding the British Museum to transfer other such treasures.

These colonial legacies accompanied by racism and xenophobia, “Fortress Europe” migration policies – seen by many African countries as a reminder of the Europe’s colonial past and involvement in slave trade – and diversion of development and poverty alleviation funds to build "Fortress Europe" are the greatest barriers to turn over a new leaf in the Africa-Europe relationship.

Brussels is believed to be somewhat late to the party when it comes to woo Africa and African leaders attending the conference have been forthright in this regard. “This Compact with Africa is a decade behind, that is the truth,” said Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu.

Other than holding 40% and up to 90% of the world's gold and chromium and platinum, some 30%, 8% and 12% of the world's mineral, natural gas and oil reserves lie in Africa. The continent is also rich in green metals including cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel and graphite that are critical to sustainable technologies, carbon-free transition and produce lithium-ion batteries for electrical vehicles.

Despite holding about one-third of global mineral reserves, Africa in 2019 produced just 5.5% of the world's minerals worth $406 billion compared to the EU's 7%. As demand for "white gold," lithium, between 2017 and 2022 tripled while that of cobalt and nickel jumped 70% and 40%, Africa has turned into the most-prized region for Brussels..

The continent is further uniquely positioned to flip the script on fossil fuel by leading the world in green hydrogen production. Due to its proximity to Europe, Africa is a geopolitical priority for the EU; bloc is eying the continent's edge in producing green hydrogen through solar and wind power to cut its high-cost fossil fuel-based electricity production in addition to replacing natural gas with green hydrogen in emission-intensive industries such as steel and cement production as well as for warming the European households.

A study by the African Green Hydrogen Alliance comprising Egypt, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa with analytical support of McKinsey last year found the global demand of green fuel was projected to rise by sevenfold by 2050, offering opportunity to its member states increase their GDP by $126 billion. Africa overall has much more potential to produce green hydrogen as high as $1.06 trillion but needs massive upfront investments, tempting Scholz invest €4 billion into the EU-Africa Initiative for Green Energy through 2030 on top of EU's €3.4 billion.

Even as Africa seeks a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with Europe, African leaders are aware the EU latest effort to bolster ties is largely driven by the continent's intensity to hold vast reserves of natural resources. It was readily visible in Kenyan President William Ruto's speech that in March reminded the EU of "scars of colonialism" and "economic and institutional dependencies" and echoed the same sentiments in the recent summit, giving a clear warning to Brussels: Africa won't give them carte blanche to it, come and exploit the continent's natural resources.

As EU ploughs the field for a close partnership with Africa and vies for geopolitical influence with other world powers as well as for critical minerals and new economic opportunities, China has solidified its foothold across the continent. Regional nations have long complained while others talk about investment, Beijing has actually provided financing without giving moral lecturing. Moussa Faki, Chairperson of African Union (AU) Commission minced no words and cut to the chase in Berlin. “Perhaps China was more audacious, perhaps they have more vision and perhaps they trusted the potential in Africa,” urging the EU “to impose less conditions.”

Africa's concerns about Europe's colonization of the continent and reported deferral of the third ministerial meeting between AU and EU indicate Brussels is facing challenges to guide the relationship through troubled waters. The core rationale behind this skepticism is the “forgotten continent” has historically been recurrently dropped down on the EU priority list, catching attention only when there's a disaster or the bloc needs it, as shown by the recent EU efforts to court Africa.

The EU, however, can bolster ties and increase influence in Africa by rectifying the mistakes of its colonial past and sincerely implementing its policy, which aims to develop partnership on the basis of solidarity, security, peace and sustainable economic development and prosperity for the people and the two Unions.

Still, Brussels should make sure that while this cooperation powers the bloc’s household, factories, economy and clean energy transition, it benefits Africa too where most countries are highly vulnerable to climate change and an unprecedented number of people are unemployed, lack electricity and at high risk of dying from infectious diseases as they struggle to live through conflict and hunger.

*My article (unedited) that appeared in the Express Tribune:

EU tariffs aimed at China-made EVs will hit Europe too

By: Azhar Azam

Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement that the EU is to launch an anti-subsidy investigation into China-made electric vehicles (EVs), in her last annual State of the Union address as European Commission president, will have wide implications for the European Union economy, consumers and climate change goals.

Click here to read complete article

My artcile that appeared in the South China Morning Post