January 31, 2024

Why is Biden pursuing a trade truce with China?

By: Azhar Azam

Unveiling her 2024 strategy, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said America didn’t seek to “decouple” from China because it would be “damaging” to both economies with negative global repercussions, stressing two economies had an obligation to drive collective action for the benefit of the people and global economies.

Washington appears to realize an improved economic relationship with Beijing is important for its economy, job market and businesses. It was mirrored in Yellen’s speech that acknowledged US exports to China, Chinese investments and key inputs from Beijing could generate employment and strengthen America’s competitiveness internationally.

Trajectory of the vital relationship is gearing toward rapprochement but US allegations on China of deploying unfair economic practices while maintaining tariffs and export and investment controls on Chinese products and companies pose a persistent threat to make such a joint effort.

Per US data, duties assessed on China products have exceeded more than $198 billion. These tariffs, including on goods of no strategic value for US national security, have hit the consumer pockets and hammered competitiveness of the exporters relying on China for intermediate inputs as bipartisan bets such as the House Select Committee on China strategy to win economic competition with Beijing put Washington's mission to manage the relationship in peril.

Proposals like moving Beijing to a new tariff column as outlined in the report would essentially revoke Beijing’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status and drastically raise tariffs on Chinese products, suggesting President Joe Biden's effort to build a floor under the China-US relationship is facing strong challenges from China hawks.

Tariff increases have inflicted sizable negative impacts on the US economy and job market. An Oxford Economics report in November identified America had reaped “substantial benefits” from enhanced trade with China since it gained PNTR status. Stating a sixfold tariff increase on China since 2018 had reduced US jobs and output, it warned tariff hikes could cost America up to 744,000 jobs by 2025 and trigger $1.6 trillion loss in GDP over a 5-year horizon.

While this policy could have immediate catastrophic inflationary impacts on consumers, potentially undoing the US economy’s “soft landing” and in part is based on a false premise that China’s economic system is “incompatible” with the WTO, it also undermine administration's goal to lower production costs and create even more jobs, putting US businesses at disadvantage to their global peers.

Due to devastating effects of some of its recommendations, CATO Institute warns it may constitute violations by the US of its own WTO treaty obligations. The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed several recommendations, denouncing China's policies, but described the repeal of Beijing's PNTR status as a "blunt instrument" over its potential to "heap" high costs on Americans without radically altering the supply chains.

In his meeting with Biden, China's President Xi Jinping emphasized on working together to overwhelm global economic and security riptides. Where this rare engagement sent a reassuring signal to America’s business leaders about cooperation, it exasperated the Select Committee’s chairman Mike Gallaghar who sought a complete list of individuals and companies that bought tickets to dine with Xi and paid $40,000 to sit at his table.

China is still a lucrative market for many of them. Recent import and supply chain expos in China, which pulled scores of companies from the US and Europe, underscored this trend. A 32% surge in new foreign-invested companies across China in the first 10 months, per China's commerce ministry, shows China hasn't lost that much appeal as a foreign investment destination as portrayed. The Select Committee’s green-eyed view, however, could derail the sporadic sign of truce and spoil the moment for the US businesses.

Capital flight from China has made quite a few headlines. Beijing's first-ever quarterly foreign investment deficit, dubbed as a success of the West’s "de-risking" strategy, may be partly right yet ignores the other angle of the spectrum. The Chinese auto manufacturers, for instance, are quietly relocating their operations to Mexico. While this capital outflow is helping them to challenge American and European rivals by capturing their market share, it could allow them to circumvent 27.5% tariffs as well as take advantage of the US-Mexico trade agreement and burgeoning Mexican exports to America.

Speculations about China's economic downfall are exaggerated too. Although leading international financial watchdogs such as IMF and ADP have slashed their 2024 growth projections for China, economists don’t see the Chinese economy in trouble or "dire straits." Even at 4.6% growth rate, Beijing is poised to comfortably leapfrog the major developed economies.

Over the last year or so, top executives of several US conglomerates such as Tesla, Starbucks, and JPMorgan have visited China. These trips as well as the US major arm supplier Raytheon's Greg Hayes' declaration China "is too big, too important and too necessary to the US economy" and Tim Cook’s characterization of Apple's relationship with Beijing as "symbiotic" reveal American firms' craving for the big Chinese market.

With some of the CEOs of these blue-chip companies wooing Xi in San Francisco, like it or not, Biden will have to work with Beijing. And any truce in the trade war between China and the US, regardless where it comes from, should be welcomed for it would benefit the international economy, people, countries such as Pakistan that needs both China and the US to trounce its strategic and economic roadblocks as well as prevent further economic fragmentation and bring more stability to the world.

January 20, 2024

US bullying can't stop the rise of China's semiconductor industry

By: Azhar Azam

The license of the Dutch Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (ASML) to ship some of its equipment to China has been partially revoked, said the Veldhoven-based company in a statement on its website citing discussions with the U.S. government. The move will have a limited impact on China; the latest episode again exposes America's coercive efforts to undermine the trade and technology interests of two sovereign states.

For several years, the U.S. has been forcing the Netherlands to limit chip-making equipment exports to China; the Dutch government resisted, stating it would "not copy the U.S. export restrictions for China one-to-one." "We make our own assessment," said the country's Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher in November 2022.

Last year, Washington reportedly called Amsterdam about the matter but was asked to contact the ASML directly. In the recent development, it's revealed the Biden administration has pushed the ASML to cancel shipments of three top-of-the-line deep ultraviolet lithography machines even before export bans were due to come into effect.

Peter Wennink, the company's chief executive officer, publicly exposed the U.S. bullying last year when he warned: "The more you put them (China) under pressure, the more likely it is that they will double up their efforts." The export ban on chip-making equipment will cost the Netherlands billions of dollars as China was estimated to have imported some $3.7 billion worth of these chip-making systems between July and November alone.

America's campaign to prevent China's access to semiconductor equipment began in 2018 under the Trump administration. Amsterdam, under U.S. pressure, withheld an export license in 2019 that would have allowed ASML to ship its extreme ultraviolet machines. Reason being the U.S. couldn't sanction the company given its products didn't make up for more than 25 percent of the U.S.-made components, required to block the ASML from selling to China.

U.S. President Joe Biden continued his predecessor's policy and kept lobbying the Dutch government to deny this equipment to China. This approach has been driven by geopolitics: thwart China's ambitions of self-dependence and ensure America's dominance in the semiconductor industry, which for decades powered the country's hegemony in economy, military and technology.

Reckoning U.S. share of semiconductor manufacturing capacity had dropped to 12 percent, a study by the Boston Consulting Group and the Semiconductor Industry Association projected Beijing to have the world's largest share of chip production by 2030 with East Asia accounting for 75 percent of the global chip production. A new fab in the U.S., it said, would cost up to 50 percent more than the one in China, stoking fears in Washington that Beijing could upend its global dominance and urging it to politicize the trade relationships.

As Europe joined the U.S. technology Cold War with China, Wennink warned it wouldn't prevent China from developing its own semiconductor industry. On the contrary, it could decelerate the European industry. "In 15 years, they'll be able to do it all by themselves – and their market (for European suppliers) will be gone."

Even American chipmakers expect their government to protect their interests in China which last year was the largest single market, accounting for an estimated of about $180 billion or more than one-third of global semiconductor purchases. After meeting the U.S. Secretary Antony Blinken following his China visit, the U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in last July said the restrictions shouldn't be so broad "that you deny American companies revenue and China can get the product elsewhere."

Rather than addressing their grievances, America opted to shut down other markets for China. Schreinemacher comments in September that the Netherlands had considered "the technological developments and geopolitical context," were a bitter reminder Amsterdam was being forced to take such harsh actions. Washington also pushed other countries to adopt similar measures; South Korea raised concerns about the U.S. Chips Acts for its potential to "deepen business uncertainties (and) violate companies' management and technology rights."

As the U.S. blockade of China's semiconductor industry continues to create disruption, affecting efficiency and innovation globally, and the Biden administration expands measures in an attempt to hobble China's tech growth, these curbs have boosted the capability of the Chinese toolmakers that are getting large orders in the domestic market. Huawei last year caused a stir after the Chinese tech giant launched its Mate 60 Pro with a 7-nanometer chip, exemplifying Beijing can compete with the world's best even without access to U.S. suppliers.

Announcing new rules to halt the shipments of more advanced chips designed by Nvidia and others to China, Raimondo in last October insisted Beijing would still import hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. semiconductors yet the California-based chip designer, which has commanded over 90 percent share of China's artificial intelligence chip market, expected a steep drop in its quarterly sales in China. It has launched a modified version of one of its chips; experts say America's restrictions are helping create opportunities for domestic suppliers.

The SEMI, an association of semiconductor production equipment vendors, says China will be third in fab equipment spending worldwide in 2024. But despite the U.S. constraints, it sees Chinese manufacturers investing in mature process nodes.

This commitment to achieve self-dependence is also reflected in the SEMI's most recent quarterly World Feb Forecast which expects global semiconductor production in 2024 to increase to the tune of 30 million wafers per month (wpm) for the first time on the back of 8.6 million wpm capacity growth in China. This indicates Washington could have delayed Beijing's chip advancement but it cannot overturn China's tech rise.

*My article that first appeared at CGTN:

January 5, 2024

What’s behind EU newest charm offensive against Africa?

By: Azhar Azam

November 2023 marked 139 years since beginning of the Scramble for Africa when on 15-November-1884, European leaders gathered for the Berlin Conference in Germany for colonization of Africa and closed the assembly on 26-February-1885 once they agreed to split the continent into 53 countries and divvy up among themselves.

After almost a century and a half, Europe's strategy has changed but neither whereabouts nor objectives as fretful of losing Africa in a fierce geopolitical competition and over its growing role in the bloc's clean energy transition, European Union (EU) has relaunched its charm offensive against Africa through an African-EU investment package of €150 billion and the G-20 Compact with Africa (CwA) and related summits in Berlin.

The CwA initiative, established under Germany’s G20 presidency in 2017 that seeks to boost investments and development in the world’s poorest but fastest-growing region, was hosted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and witnessed the attendance of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

With the Ukraine war – during which the bloc noticed not many countries were on its side, acting as a rude awakening – an urgency to secure energy supply from Africa after the Hamas-Israel war and need of the continent's political support, natural resources, skilled labor and IT professionals is driving the EU to warm up to Africa.

But as the EU tries to win favor on a continent, "deep wounds" of colonial rule are yet to heal. Last year, Germany in an attempt to address its “dark colonial history” returned some precious artifacts, looted by the UK soldiers during the colonial rule from Benin, to Nigeria; Abuja has been demanding the British Museum to transfer other such treasures.

These colonial legacies accompanied by racism and xenophobia, “Fortress Europe” migration policies – seen by many African countries as a reminder of the Europe’s colonial past and involvement in slave trade – and diversion of development and poverty alleviation funds to build "Fortress Europe" are the greatest barriers to turn over a new leaf in the Africa-Europe relationship.

Brussels is believed to be somewhat late to the party when it comes to woo Africa and African leaders attending the conference have been forthright in this regard. “This Compact with Africa is a decade behind, that is the truth,” said Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu.

Other than holding 40% and up to 90% of the world's gold and chromium and platinum, some 30%, 8% and 12% of the world's mineral, natural gas and oil reserves lie in Africa. The continent is also rich in green metals including cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel and graphite that are critical to sustainable technologies, carbon-free transition and produce lithium-ion batteries for electrical vehicles.

Despite holding about one-third of global mineral reserves, Africa in 2019 produced just 5.5% of the world's minerals worth $406 billion compared to the EU's 7%. As demand for "white gold," lithium, between 2017 and 2022 tripled while that of cobalt and nickel jumped 70% and 40%, Africa has turned into the most-prized region for Brussels..

The continent is further uniquely positioned to flip the script on fossil fuel by leading the world in green hydrogen production. Due to its proximity to Europe, Africa is a geopolitical priority for the EU; bloc is eying the continent's edge in producing green hydrogen through solar and wind power to cut its high-cost fossil fuel-based electricity production in addition to replacing natural gas with green hydrogen in emission-intensive industries such as steel and cement production as well as for warming the European households.

A study by the African Green Hydrogen Alliance comprising Egypt, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa with analytical support of McKinsey last year found the global demand of green fuel was projected to rise by sevenfold by 2050, offering opportunity to its member states increase their GDP by $126 billion. Africa overall has much more potential to produce green hydrogen as high as $1.06 trillion but needs massive upfront investments, tempting Scholz invest €4 billion into the EU-Africa Initiative for Green Energy through 2030 on top of EU's €3.4 billion.

Even as Africa seeks a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with Europe, African leaders are aware the EU latest effort to bolster ties is largely driven by the continent's intensity to hold vast reserves of natural resources. It was readily visible in Kenyan President William Ruto's speech that in March reminded the EU of "scars of colonialism" and "economic and institutional dependencies" and echoed the same sentiments in the recent summit, giving a clear warning to Brussels: Africa won't give them carte blanche to it, come and exploit the continent's natural resources.

As EU ploughs the field for a close partnership with Africa and vies for geopolitical influence with other world powers as well as for critical minerals and new economic opportunities, China has solidified its foothold across the continent. Regional nations have long complained while others talk about investment, Beijing has actually provided financing without giving moral lecturing. Moussa Faki, Chairperson of African Union (AU) Commission minced no words and cut to the chase in Berlin. “Perhaps China was more audacious, perhaps they have more vision and perhaps they trusted the potential in Africa,” urging the EU “to impose less conditions.”

Africa's concerns about Europe's colonization of the continent and reported deferral of the third ministerial meeting between AU and EU indicate Brussels is facing challenges to guide the relationship through troubled waters. The core rationale behind this skepticism is the “forgotten continent” has historically been recurrently dropped down on the EU priority list, catching attention only when there's a disaster or the bloc needs it, as shown by the recent EU efforts to court Africa.

The EU, however, can bolster ties and increase influence in Africa by rectifying the mistakes of its colonial past and sincerely implementing its policy, which aims to develop partnership on the basis of solidarity, security, peace and sustainable economic development and prosperity for the people and the two Unions.

Still, Brussels should make sure that while this cooperation powers the bloc’s household, factories, economy and clean energy transition, it benefits Africa too where most countries are highly vulnerable to climate change and an unprecedented number of people are unemployed, lack electricity and at high risk of dying from infectious diseases as they struggle to live through conflict and hunger.

*My article (unedited) that appeared in the Express Tribune:

January 1, 2024

EU tariffs aimed at China-made EVs will hit Europe too

By: Azhar Azam

Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement that the EU is to launch an anti-subsidy investigation into China-made electric vehicles (EVs), in her last annual State of the Union address as European Commission president, will have wide implications for the European Union economy, consumers and climate change goals.