Reciprocal Sino-US cooperation shouldn't be hesitate

By: Azhar Azam

Notwithstanding that there were no breakthroughs and Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden didn't cobble together a joint statement, the U.S. media admitted the "tone of the relationship" had significantly improved. Some prior and subsequent events also suggested the relations were slowly thawing between the two world powers, Beijing and Washington.

A joint China-U.S. declaration at the 26th United Nations Conference of Parties on Climate Change (COP26) in Glasgow where the presidential envoys of both countries, responsible for about 40 percent of the world carbon output, agreed on enhancing climate action and signed an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions surprised everyone. They also intend to establish a working group, which could include technical exchanges and identification of areas of mutual interest, to meet regularly through the decade.

Then ahead of the highly-anticipated talks, China and the U.S. agreed to ease travel and visa restrictions on journalists, allowing them to enter and leave both countries more freely. In February last year, Washington had classified five Chinese media organizations as "foreign mission" to exercise tighter control over Chinese media.

Biden characterized the virtual meeting in positive terms, said the two leaders had "a lot to follow up on" and announced setting up four working groups, revealing there will be more to report in the next two weeks. He didn't provide specific details. However, it was important that sense was finally prevailing in the White House to ameliorate, stabilize and set the direction of perhaps the crucial bilateral relationship in the world.

Understanding any conflict between the two major economies would be a powder keg for their economies, and China won't budge on issues of its national interest, the U.S. president sought "straightforward competition" with Beijing. As Biden's aides contended with ending the U.S. engagement policy toward China for "a stable, peaceful competition," the approach stoked concerns about stopping the trade war and scaling back tariffs that have caused supply chain disruptions and are hurting businesses on both sides.

"Build Back Better" is Biden's economic metaphor through which he disengages himself from his predecessor's "America First" policy. As he explores areas of cooperation with Beijing, he should extinguish the heat of tariffs from China-U.S. trade ties.

American companies importing products from China expected Biden to roll back former U.S. President Donald Trump's trade wars as they were jaded with the latter's policies and voted for a moderate and pro-business presidential candidate last year. But 10 months into the White House, $350 billion of taxes are still in place and continue to impact the life of ordinary Americans.

Lowering or eliminating levies on China could ease inflationary pressures on American families, farmers and businesses as well as create 145,000 jobs by 2025, with "significant decoupling" threatening the U.S. GDP to reduce by $1.6 trillion over the next five years. The fact that tariffs tend to boost prices and raise costs was acknowledged by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a recent interview.

The Biden-Xi virtual meeting was held at an extraordinary time when international growth is returning yet faces near-term risks with a spike in global inflation. The "Bidenflation," following the Labor Department's announcement the prices rose by 6.2 percent in 12 months to historic highs in almost 31 years, really hurt the U.S. companies and people.

Undoubtedly the supply chain problem is a global phenomenon; idiotic trade policies and practices of the administrations have badly exposed the vulnerability of the inefficient U.S. logistics system. In the middle of the international shipping crunch, the U.S. imposed 221 percent additional duties on the biggest chassis manufacturer, China Intermodal Marine Container, and exacerbated domestic companies' supply chain woes and the inflationary pressures.

Many voices have called for defusing tensions between Beijing and Washington in the past.

Warning Trump his efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global economy would undermine America's international role and reputation - several veteran experts in 2019 blamed the U.S. actions for contributing to the downward spiral in the relationship. They believed China shouldn't be considered an economic adversary or existential national security threat, and its economic expansion was irresistible despite Washington's opposition.

The importance of a thaw in the bilateral ties and cooperation is being realized in the U.S. for the now and future generations, protecting the country's strategic interests and seeing Beijing's vitality in climate change, transition to clean energy, green technologies, scientific research and public health. In the recent past, unwarranted U.S. restrictions have interrupted academic, journalistic, people-to-people and business exchanges across the two nations.

Washington should comprehend great economic strength comes with a great responsibility. Over the years, America has shirked from this fundamental duty that would have calmed tensions and pushed bilateral and international trade and economic growth. A message to maintain sustained, warm ties from Chinese and U.S. leaders will give them a signal to resume connections and collaborate for mutual growth.

The White House is promoting Biden's idea to establish "guardrails" to prevent an accidental clash and responsibly manage the competition. Fear of a political backlash may make it hard for the U.S. president to effectively focus on repairing the overall China-U.S. relationship, but broad and frank talks for expanding the cooperation between China and the U.S., two economies accounting for 40 percent of the world economy, shouldn't be allowed to linger on for a long time.

*This is my opinion piece that originally appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-11-21/Reciprocal-Sino-U-S-cooperation-shouldn-t-be-hesitate-15ld41vbjMs/index.html

In Bosnia and Kosovo, US-Nato can better their global image

By: Azhar Azam

In October 1990, the CIA produced a national intelligence estimate titled Yugoslavia Transformed. It prophesied the country will cease to function as a federal state within one year and dissolve into two. The assessment expected a protracted armed uprising by Albanians in Kosovo and ruled out a full scale, inter-republic war but warned serious inter-conflict will accompany the breakup. “The violence will be intractable and bitter.”

Over the next four years, the United States gave a chilly response to the Bosnian war, believing it was Europe's ballgame and the Europeans should handle the problem on their own. The US President Bill Clinton in 1995 suddenly changed gear and decided to assert America’s leadership to end the war in the Western Balkans.

Washington-brokered Dayton Peace agreement ended more than three year Bosnian war by establishing a bicameral legislature in the two administrative units, the Serb-majority Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat-dominated Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). While the accord has been criticized for entrenching ethnic divisions that spurred the past conflicts, it gave state-level veto powers to the Serb entity, which frequently exploited the authority to block legislation for more than 25 years.

The treaty didn’t resolve the status or even made no mention of Kosovo, mainly a Muslim-majority territory that Serbia considers its province. Kosovar Albanians in 1998 launched rebellion against Serbian rule. Citing actions and policies of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) with respect to Kosovo a threat to America’s national security and progress in BiH, the US President Bill Clinton proclaimed national emergency on 09-June-1998.

In March 2019, the NATO opened a broad barrage against Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic’s brutal repression and offensives against Albanian villages and rebels of the Kosovo Liberation Army. During the air campaign (between March and late June), at least 10,000 people were killed by the Serbian forces in Kosovo and about 90% of the population was forcibly displaced from their homes.

The Serbian forces systematic campaign to ethnically cleanse Kosovo included looting of homes and businesses, widespread burning of houses, use of Kosovar Albanians as human shield, detention, summary executions, exhumation of mass graves, rapes, violation of medical neutrality, identity cleansing, torture, sexually assault, imprisonment in inhumane camps, persecution and psychologically abuse.

America’s role in Dayton was “first disinterested, then disinterested and finally decisive.” The international community, which “stumbled and fumbled” for years, finally agreed on a solution that wasn’t much different from previously discussed and negotiated plans. It didn’t aggressively move forward on the Kosovo issue either.

Pristina declared independence in 2008 and is recognized by nearly 100 countries including the US, which remains the largest contingent with 635 troops in the Western Balkans. Deployed mostly at a sprawling military base, Camp Bondsteel, in central Kosovo, they are known as “forgotten battalion” over America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. NATO has no plans of military drawdown to ensure a safe and secure environment in Kosovo; it isn’t a long-term solution of the conflict.

The Western Balkans – comprising the “enlargement countries” Albania, BiH, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo for their perspective to accede to the European Union (EU) – is expected to see faster economic growth (5.9%) in 2021 following last year’s 3.1% contraction. This rebound came on the back of falling infection rate, loosened mobility restrictions, increased domestic consumption and tourist arrivals as well as from positive spillover effects from Europe’s strengthened external demand in advanced economies.

Yet economic recovery is fragile as poverty rate in the region, notwithstanding 1% decline, would remain at 20.3% with surging unemployment through the first half of 2021. As the region's optimistic outlook is marred by risks over inflationary pressures, separatist-Serbs threat to create their own army endangers regional economic rejuvenation and Dayton other than exposing Sarajevo to the dangers of fragmentation and return of conflict.

If BiH is pushed towards disintegration, it will adversely affect the Kosovo and the EU enlargement policy that is in deep crisis; nevertheless pledges to make strategic investment in peace, stability, security and economic growth across the European continent through the €30 billion Economic and Investment Plan for the Union’s “inner courtyard.”

Amid growing tensions in the two subnational Bosnian territories, the US President Joe Biden is sending his diplomats envoys to the Western Balkans to resolve the issue of BiH. Donald Trump comes to the fore as he deploys his “Envoy Ambassador” to defuse Belgrade-Pristina border tensions over Kosovar anti-smuggling operation.

These peace-promoting efforts should be supported by the international community, especially the EU, to prevent genocide such as the 1995 Srebrenica massacre of 8,000 Muslims by Serbs and promote peace for region’s sustainable economic growth. More importantly, it provides the US and NATO an opportunity to ameliorate their image as a peace-builder after devastating wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2329891/in-bosnia-and-kosovo-us-nato-can-better-their-global-image

Beijing and Jakarta to protect regional peace and economic growth

By: Azhar Azam

Pursuing a friendly policy toward China and supporting the Chinese people-centered vision of a shared future and mutual growth, Indonesia is committed to safeguarding regional peace, strengthening vaccine research, participating in regional cooperation programs such as Belt and Road Initiative and addressing climate change along with Beijing.

Dismayed by the rational and pragmatic Indonesian approach, Washington is still courting the biggest Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economy in the hope that it will take a harder stance against Beijing, particularly on the South China Sea. While it's a "tough sell" to wrest Indonesia from China given China's huge investments and vaccine cooperation, close economic and strategic relationships between the two countries almost eliminates the likelihood of any confrontation.

In 2020, Jakarta's exports to Beijing rose 10.1 percent to $37.4 billion. Considering Indonesia's trade deficit with China, Beijing in January pledged to import more Indonesian products, after which Chinese imports from Jakarta in the first nine months of 2021 surpassed its exports to the Southeast Asian state. In addition, several big Chinese companies have promised to invest in new energy, which would elevate Indonesia's contribution to the global electric car industry.

Last year, then U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo broke sweat to drive a wedge between China and Indonesia by highlighting the Uygur issue and Beijing's "unlawful" claims during his trip to Jakarta. But his attempt backfired since many influential Indonesians viewed him with skepticism, believing escalation was not in the interests of either country.

During his meeting with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently, Indonesia's Coordinator for Cooperation with China and Coordinating Minister of Maritimes Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan declined to sever ties with his country's biggest investor and key trading partner, China. Chinese investments were helping Indonesia "to survive," he told Sullivan, "Why don't you come too?"

Distinct from a historically wobbly Washington approach towards Jakarta, China and Indonesia have deepened their economic cooperation to the provincial level. A number of provinces in the archipelago seek to take advantage of Chinese technological growth and enormous domestic demand.

Bengkulu, Central Sulawesi, West Kalimantan and Riau Islands are a few of the many Indonesian provinces that have completed or signed deals to construct power plants with Chinese assistance in terms of agriculture technology, which could help them develop special economic zones and increase their commodity exports to China. Another province, West Java, has even established sister ties with China's Chongqing Municipality and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as well as Henan, Heilongjiang and Sichuan provinces to expand cooperation on agriculture, culture, tourism and manufacturing industries.

After Indonesia scrambled to find medical gear amid the raging coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, it found China willing to provide the critical supplies. In December, Jakarta received the first batch of Chinese vaccines – a humanistic gesture for which Indonesian President Joko Widodo showed gratitude in a televised address. He later took his second jab of the Sinovac vaccine at the presidential palace in a live broadcast event.

On August 31, Indonesia administered its 100 millionth vaccine jab and became the seventh country to reach this milestone. China's Sinovac played a vital role for Jakarta to achieve this feat, as more than 90 percent of the country's vaccine doses arrived from Beijing. The Western media is trying to cast doubts on the efficacy of Chinese vaccines yet the Indonesian authorities have quashed their qualms by approving Sinovac for children aged 6-11 years.

The inclusive relationship between the two sides is evolving into military cooperation. In May, the Chinese and Indonesian navies jointly conducted a naval drill – focused on communication, search, rescue operations and maneuver formation – in the waters near Jakarta to improve coordination during emergencies at sea. Previously, the Chinese navy had deployed its fleet in the waters north of Bali to help Indonesia lift the debris of its sunken submarine.

Joko Widodo called Chinese President Xi Jinping a "good friend and brother" of Indonesia and expressed a desire to work with China under the framework of the BRI. The two countries earlier signed "Two Countries Twin Parks," an initiative to synergize the BRI and Indonesia's Vision for the Global Maritime Fulcrum.

Some assert Jakarta owes a "hidden debt" to Beijing over infrastructure projects including the BRI-linked Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway. The Indonesian officials are however sure that collaboration with China "will bring a substantial impact" to the country and hope more Chinese companies will play a greater role to further the BRI cooperation.

All these developments manifest that the economic and strategic relationships between China and Indonesia is consolidating and getting stronger. The U.S.-led AUKUS, which alarms ASEAN and draws Indonesia's "deep concerns over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region," nevertheless is a peril to regional peace and prosperity, and should unite all the Southeast Asian states to defend their economic growth that could be endangered by America's destabilizing activities.

*This is my opinion piece that originally appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-11-09/Beijing-and-Jakarta-to-protect-regional-peace-and-economic-growth-152PCyv7Pjy/index.html

Crisis situation in Afghanistan can escalate and complicate global security

Azhar Azam

Afghanistan faces an uncertain future after the government in its mid-year budget review made a downward revision of revenue targets and cut appropriations for development expenditures. Sharp reductions in international aid are now driving a collapse in basic health and education services, with the sudden loss of public sector activity representing a stark economic and development outlook of the country.

While a widening balance of payment and very large trade deficit (28 percent) is threatening to push 10 million additional people below the poverty line, the UN report paints a grim humanitarian picture of Afghanistan, warning one in two Afghans can face high levels of food insecurity in the winter season.

The devastating drought, affecting 25 of 34 Afghan provinces, and increased conflict, driving more than 664,000 people out of their homes, triggered this acute food crisis. Nevertheless, the freezing of $9.5 billion in national assets compounded the situation as a moribund economy led to disruption of the banking system, and devaluation caused high unemployment and soaring food prices.

After the Taliban captured Kabul, the US froze Afghanistan's foreign assets and stopped shipments of cash to the already suffering nation, exposing the cash-strapped population to dire humanitarian and development challenges. Washington's action threatens the Afghan economy, 43 percent of which is reliant on foreign aid, and 97 percent of people are at the risk of sinking below the poverty line.

In the UN-hosted September's conference in Geneva, donors pledged more than $1 billion in humanitarian aid, including $200 million for the World Food Program, only after the agency said 14 million Afghans were on the brink of starvation. As 93 percent don't have enough to eat, the US antipathy toward the Taliban shouldn't hold it back in helping Afghans stave off the appalling food scarcity and economic meltdown.

Washington's humanitarian aid for Kabul ($474 million) is less than two-day of America's war expenditure in Afghanistan that averaged $300 million a day in the last 20 years. On top of this, the US has been reluctant to provide economic assistance or at least release Afghans' money to bolster their fight against hunger and support the country's long-term development.

The G20 in a special summit later agreed to combine efforts with the Taliban to laser-focus the looming humanitarian crisis emanating from Afghanistan's economic collapse. But unless sanctions on Kabul are lifted, and its billions of dollars remain confiscated by Washington, any attempts to circumvent the humanitarian disaster won't succeed.

In a bid to avoid recurrence of the 2015 migration crisis, when over one million asylum seekers, including from Afghanistan, gathered around the European Union external borders, Brussels announced a humanitarian package of 1 billion euros for Afghanistan. Yet the bloc shelved Afghan development assistance of 1 billion euros that could have helped alleviate poverty, create jobs and stimulate the economy.

The Western governments don't want the Taliban to fail over self-centered interests such as risks of a mass exodus of Afghan refugees, terror threats and narcotics trade. After all, they have now formed a government in Kabul and are administering a chaotic country and institutions with banks running out of money, unpaid civil servants and surging food prices.

As such a scenario would undermine the so-called US "enduring" counterterrorism efforts, let alone its support for human rights of all Afghans, including women and minorities, therefore it is important for the West to quickly realize the fact and find a working relationship with the Taliban before the situation spirals out of control.

The UN has also been calling for the release of Afghan foreign assets to undo a "severe economic downturn" that could set Kabul back for generations and push millions more Afghans into poverty and hunger. Stressing the Taliban should be given an opportunity to "do things differently," it says humanitarian support, though saves lives, won't balance out the threat of the country's economic collapse, and there is a need to make the economy "breathe" again.

Washington shouldn't make the drought-hit nation pay for its failures in the Afghan war or just because the US military wasn't winning the battle and had been losing ground to the Taliban every year. Hunger is crucifying millions of Afghans. At this "make or break moment" when the IMF predicts the economy to shrink by 30 percent, the US continues to snub demands of the people of Afghanistan to release their frozen reserves just to keep leverage on the government in Kabul.

The US pursues to assert restrictions on the Taliban while continuing humanitarian aid for the Afghan population, expecting the move won't harm them. But the gamble could fire back and fuel hatred for America among vulnerable Afghans who are being rounded up by the tumbling economy and battle for supremacy between Kabul and Washington. Since countries with food shortages are more likely to experience terrorism, the simmering situation could boil up into full-blown violence that would prompt intense security implications for Afghanistan and the entire world.

*This is one of my opinion pieces that first appeared in "China Daily":
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202110/31/WS617e5954a310cdd39bc72609.html