Lammy’s ‘progressive realism’ kicks off with his China visit

By: Azhar Azam

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy wrapped up an official trip to China as part of the new Labor government’s effort to take a "pragmatic" approach to engage Beijing, reconsolidating relations with the world's second largest economy from scratch.

Under the Conservatives, China-UK “golden era” relationship towards the end of 2020 shifted into a higher gear as Theresa May in 2018 visited Beijing and discussed cooperation with Xi Jinping. Boris Johnson, despite America’s pressure to block Huawei, in 2020 allowed Chinese telecom giant to operate in the UK on a limited level, seen as a “strategic defeat” for the US.

But ecstasy didn’t last long with London, just six months later, banning purchase of new Huawei equipment and announcing to root out its 5G networks by 2027, shoving both countries into a vicious circle of a diplomatic war. A UK parliamentary committee’s recommendation to counter Beijing’s “‘whole-of-state’ threat” poured gasoline on a fiery relationship. This “violent” shift from “courtship to aversion” was Tories “biggest mistake” that tipped China-UK ties into further ambiguity.

Things seem to have slightly changed with new Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a call with Xi in April sought to forge a long-term and closer economic relations with China and work together on international challenges, hoping to have "open, frank and honest discussions" on disagreements.

This helped melt the ice between two large economies, making some significant developments as UK's Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly planning to visit China in early next year to mull over resumption of Economic and Financial Dialogue with Beijing.

Britain's economy, after falling into recession H2-2023, bounced back, posting an average of 0.6% growth H1-2024. As China-UK trade dropped 21.1% to £86.5 billion in 2023 and Beijing accounted for just 0.2% of total UK FDI in 2022, Starmer is seeing an opportunity to strengthen trade and investment ties with China and build on this year's economic gains. Reeves remarks Britain benefits from trade links including with China, exports and imports and FDI suggest London's inclination towards an economic dialogue with Beijing.

It's the same mission former Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair embarked on two decades earlier, predicting China to become the world's largest economy in the next 20-30 years. By augmenting trade and investment relations, he paved the way for the “golden era,” which lasted for more than a decade before collapsing over US edginess of China’s remarkable economic and technological advancement. Those heydays may be hard to emanate but impart diplomatic wisdom on how to rebuild the relationship.

Other instances also suggest that London is cozying up to China. For example, UK Trade Secretary Jonathon Raynolds recently slammed previous government for doing little to build China-UK relationship and sought "more engagement with China,” ruling out imposing tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.

Labor’s approach is hinged on “progressive realism,” a fusion of policies adopted by two Britain’s former foreign secretaries, Robin Cook and Ernest Bevin, who respectively brought climate action and human rights to the diplomatic fore and helped create NATO and the country's accession to military alliance.

Setting out his vision of “progressive realism,” which American author Robert William claimed to have coined in 2006, Lammy in April criticized UK’ China policy had “oscillated wildly over the past 14 years” of Tory rule, urging Britain to “adopt a more consistent strategy, one that simultaneously challenges, competes against, and cooperates with China.”

This strategy pursues a realist approach to advance progressive goals rather than just confining to disagreements. Lammy's doctrine is being widely vilified; it could enable Britain to explore realistic means of cooperation with the world's largest producer of clean energy, solar panels and electric cars that without engagement isn't possible.

The “broad consensus,” Lammy wrote, “economic globalization would inevitably breed liberal democratic values proved false. Instead, democracies have become more economically dependent on authoritarian states…China provides a particularly stark case.” "In today’s world, Western governments must partner with the Global South," he added, acknowledging they “undermined” the sovereignty of weaker states.

While this economic dependence, with Beijing’s exports also relying on foreign demand, has been reciprocal, The West itself is responsible for decline in share of world trade between democracies between 1997 and 2022. As the West squandered trillions of dollars in wars and operations to change regimes it deemed were incompatible with its liberal values, China spent those years in producing and flooding the world market with cheap goods.

As the West retreated over economic fallouts of wars after killing hundreds of thousands of people, triggering antipathy for it in the Global South, China became aggressive and channeled trillions of dollars in infrastructure development across the developing world. The West has only itself to blame for China ending the era of US "hegemony.”

With America focusing on Indo-Pacific to counter China, Britain is being warned against consequences of any retrenchment from region out of UK new Defense Secretary John Healey’s comments last year that Britain can’t be a “strong military force in Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic simultaneously” and “there needs to be a realism about military commitments.”

Both Britain and Europe are cautious. Over US sea-change, the EU is being urged to “defend Europe with less America” as Britain prioritizes “NATO First” and limits its engagement in the Indo-Pacific to "advancing technology (and) developing military capabilities.”

China's role in net zero and world trade is driving Labor into maintaining a “constructive" relationship with China even in areas where both countries’ "viewpoints" diverge. UK government's readout – accentuating significance of "working together" on global challenges and commitment to promote "secure and resilient growth through increased trade and investment" – suggests Lammy’s realism has come into play in Labor's foreign policy. How his vision will meet the progressive ends though remains yet to be seen.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in "Express Tribune"

How the US’ China tariffs could hurt American national security

By: Azhar Azam

My article that first appeared in "South China Morning Post"

Great power struggle for undersea dominance

By: Azhar Azam

Laid on the ocean floor, undersea cables are arteries of international communication, digitalization and globalization and the lifeblood of the global economy. These 600 fiber-optic cables, activated or planned, spanning 1.4 million kilometers carry 95% of global data by transmitting $10 trillion every day while offering the fastest and reliable route.

These thin wires, as wide as a garden hose, are owned by a consortium of parties because of high costs associated with laying of new undersea ecosystems. Over heightened risk of being damaged by natural disasters, fishing nets, ship anchors and sharks, there is a greater need for interstate cooperation to protect the flow of information they electronify.

But by proclaiming principles that aspire to advance cooperation between a handful of countries to “promote selection of secure and verifiable subsea cable providers,” Washington is stonewalling cooperation on an area that delivers international bandwidth, necessary for global digital transition.

A blend of America’s megaphone and coercive diplomacy, through which it denigrates China and strong-arms allies and telcos to dissuade them from partnering with Chinese companies, and geopolitics around information superhighways, underpinning the global economy and finance, to retain its subsea hegemony could stoke tensions with Beijing for the plan's ulterior goal is to phase one of the fastest-growing companies, China’s HMN Technologies, out of the market.

America’s SubCom, Japan’s NEC and France’s Alcatel historically dominated the sector before a seismic shift took place as HMN Tech (then Huawei Marine Networks) entered the fray in 2008 and disturbed status quo, becoming an important player in the market over the next 15 years.

Emergence of a Chinese firm shook the US Department of Justice whose Team Telecom in 2020 raised national security concerns about China’s “sustained efforts to acquire sensitive personal data of millions of US persons.” In 2021, Washington finally added HMN to its entity list.

A Guardian’s investigation of documents disclosed to it by NSA’s whistleblower Edward Snowden, in 2013 revealed the UK’s spy agency, GCHQ, had tapped into more than 200 fiber-optic cables to access a huge volume of communications including between entirely innocent people, sharing sensitive personal information with its American peer.

NSA and other US intelligence agencies have been eavesdropping on its own Five Eyes’ allies such as Australian and New Zealand and snooping on American people including protesters, racial justice activists, journalists, political commentators, campaign donors and Congressmen; there is no clear evidence that subsea cables are being tapped or sabotaged by any country, let it be US, China or Russia.

Recent reports have seen such threats as overblown. Labeling concerns vis-à-vis "tapping into cables to derive, copy or obfuscate data" as “highly unlikely,” a European report in 2022 found “no publicly available and verified reports” indicating deliberate attacks including from China. The threat scenarios “could be exaggerated and suggest a substantial risk of threat inflation and fearmongering,” it said.

Still, US unabated offensive against Chinese company continued as it through incentives and pressure on consortium members including warnings and threats of sanctions and exports controls flipped the contract of Southeast Asia-Middle East-Western Europe-6 (SEA-ME-WE-6) cable, snaking its way from Singapore to France, to SubCom.

Per Reuters, it was one of the six private undersea cable deals in Asia-Pacific where the US government had intervened to prevent HMN from winning or forced rerouting or abandonment of cable deals, unveiling Washington’s innate impulse to monopolize undersea ecosystems and marking a beginning of underwater geopolitical rivalry.

Yet China struck back through a $500 million Europe-Middle East-Asia internet cable. Known as PEACE (Pakistan and East Asia Connecting Europe) cable, the project directly competes with SEA-ME-WE-6 and supersedes its rival project with a planned length of 25,000+ km against latter’s 21,700 km, providing even higher bandwidth.

US efforts to control subsea cables shone as market share of HMN, which had built or repaired almost 25% of world's cables and supplied 18% of them in the last four years through 2022, is expected to contract to mere 7%. The top beneficiary of US interventionism is its SubCom that has grabbed only 12% of contracts but accounts for a whopping 40% of cables laid.

At the core of this competition is America’s fear of conceding a critical component of the digital economy to China. US officials have voiced concern the Chinese repair ships could be used for spying; there is no evidence of such an activity either. While some have dubbed submarine cables as “a surveillance gold mine" for world intelligence agencies, most experts believe the biggest risk isn't espionage, sabotage or even rogue anchors rather an uneven spread of cable infrastructure that threatens the very promise of digital equity and demands East-West cooperation to end this digital injustice, especially with the Global South.

For decades, America, France and Japan dominated the global underwater ecosystem. Wary of losing their ascendancy, they are pooling efforts to exorcize Chinese demon and retain influence over submarine cables. The involvement of security alliances such as Quad "to support and strengthen quality undersea cable networks in the Indo-Pacific" and Biden's push to bolster cooperation in the region on cybersecurity including undersea cables and whisk regional submarine plans away from China are beseeching Beijing to respond, elevating risk of kicking off a cold war under the sea.

Multination cooperation has been the catalyst of submarine cable expansion and is essential for the future of the digital economy. But this kiasu approach of asserting a closed group's unwater dominance is threatening to black out collaboration and divide the world in two geopolitical or ideological blocs. This simmering struggle for subsea hegemony should be lulled before it boils up and compounds global challenges, being faced by a fragmented world.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in "Express Tribune"

Biden's de minimis move risks weakening Harris' campaign

By: Azhar Azam

Just days after the Democratic lawmakers urged the US President Joe Biden to exercise his executive powers to end a tariff “loophole,” his administration announced new actions to clamp down on the “abuse” of “de minimis” shipments, in particular from Chinese e-commerce platforms. These consignments over the last ten years had increased from about 140 million to one billion, making it challenging to block illicit synthetic drugs such as fentanyl, the White House readout asserted.

It is despite the proponents spurned the likelihood of any loophole in the exemption or that these low-value shipments contained fentanyl, citing screening of the “de minimis” imports by the Custom and Border Protection (CBP). All imports, regardless of value, are in fact rigorously monitored by the CBP for anti-forced labor compliance including the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and to enforce trade laws vis-à-vis intellectual property rights.

Leading industry groups have also rejected such propositions. National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC) – whose board includes Amazon and Walmart – in its letter to the Biden administration in March said there was no evidence that illegal drugs were prevalent in "de minimis," alluding to CBP data that showed 99% of fentanyl seizures occurred across areas, which were not a major channel for “de minimis," and estimate only 3% of fentanyl doses in 2024 would come through air cargo. A CBP official last year too dismissed the "misconception" the "de minimis" was a "loophole" and these cargoes were not screened.

In its recent report, the Drug Enforcement Agency has also acknowledged "Fentanyl (mainly sourced from China and India, which is becoming a "major source country" for illicit chemicals) manufactured by the Mexican cartels is the main driver behind the ongoing epidemic of drug poisoning deaths in the United States." The Department of Homeland Security's own data, which states 89% of all seizures in the cargo environment this fiscal year through July originated as “de minimis” shipments including 72% of health and safety seizures of prohibited items, further reveals the low-value packages are scrutinized at arrival in the US.

The administration's intent to "work with Congress" for key reforms including exclusion of "de minimis" shipments, covered by the Section 301, Section 201 or Section 232, as well as argument that the exemption is resulting in a flood of low-value products such as textiles and apparel into the US market duty-free unveils the flipside of the coin: curbing China's clothing exports to the US.

Inexpensive items like $5 t-shirts and $10 sweaters and dresses and digital advertisements by Chinese e-commerce platforms have benefited consumers and the US ad and shipping industry. As 70% of textiles and apparel imports from China are already subject to the Sections 301 tariffs, an imposition of duties on Chinese low-value goods will directly hit the US importers and consumers who, per the US government’s last year report, absorbed these costs and loved the torrent of ultra-cheap clothing.

The new rule risks firing back given it would wreak havoc on American consumers and businesses by triggering higher prices of everyday products like bags, dresses, toys and shoes from Chinese online marketplaces and fast fashion companies at a time when spiking inflation is set to become a burning issue in the presidential campaign.

In a recent debate with Donald Trump, the US Vice President Kamala Harris panned his rival’s plan to hike tariffs on all imports from 10% to 20% as well as slap 60% or more on Chinese goods for they would hurt the working families, characterizing it as “Trump’s sales tax.” With the administration’s new actions contradicting Harris' condemnation of Trump’s tariffs, the Democrats have given a tactic endorsement to the former president.

If enacted, the new rule could cause a drop in Harris’' approval rating, which has just edged past Trump. It's politically an unwise decision in an election year as per the NFTC, average price of "de minimis" package could double from $50, in case it "were to be eliminated or significantly degraded," suggesting American consumers would bear the brunt.

Over the years, “de minimis” has encouraged competition among e-commerce giants and delivered cheaper clothing, electronics and other home products to Americans. Purging of exemption will impact the revenues of Chinese firms; it could derail growth trajectory of the US ad industry while culminating in an estimated $8 billion to $30 billion in additional annual costs to American consumers other than harming small businesses and provoking retaliation.

Biden’s intent to crack down on Chinese e-commerce companies could inspire other countries to make changes in their “de minimis” policies, undermining American exporters’ competitiveness; they will add to the sufferings of the US low-income communities and small businesses, who could take the Democrats aback in the November election.

Rather than aggrandizing threats to American consumers and attracting their wrath by levying sweeping tariffs on “de minimis” shipments, the Biden administration should focus on staving off the challenges, being faced by the US citizens, to circumvent their angst later this year that would help Harris’ prospect to become the first ever woman president in the US history.

*My article unedited that first appeared in "Express Tribune"

China-Africa summit sparks new vision for Global South development

By: Azhar Azam

Lead: The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing heralds a new era in Sino-African relations, with agreements poised to benefit millions. Could this partnership be the blueprint for equitable growth across the Global South?

Beijing is increasingly becoming an icon and center of global cooperation. This was evident at the recently concluded 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing. Heads of state and top delegates from Africa, home to the world's largest number of developing nations, gathered in droves. They were greeted with reciprocity and respect by their counterparts from China, the world's largest developing country.

Contrast this with the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in December 2022. President Joe Biden held no one-on-one meetings with African leaders, raising questions about Washington's approach. The limited interactions sparked debate over whether the U.S. views Africa as a monolithic bloc or recognizes the diversity of its individual countries. Biden held a multilateral meeting with six African leaders, which is merely part of a broader U.S. strategy to promote liberal internationalism, with the U.S. acting as hegemon.

In Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping on last Monday alone had bilateral meetings with leaders from South Africa, Guinea, Eritrea, Seychelles, Djibouti, Togo, Comoros, Mali and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These meetings, and others that followed, were characterized by mutual respect, support for individual development paths, mutually beneficial cooperation and equal treatment.

This is one of the reasons why FOCAC has historically attracted more African leaders than many other global forums, including some of the world's most prominent multilateral gatherings. The 2024 FOCAC Summit drew more than 50 African leaders, underscoring its incredible significance. The high level of attendance reflects the strong bond between China and Africa, their trust in each other, and their determination to counter challenges and grow together.

Xi echoed this in his keynote speech at the summit's opening ceremony, emphasizing that modernization is an "inalienable right" of all countries. He described this modernization as just, equitable, open, and mutually beneficial. Xi added that it should be people-centered, eco-friendly, and embrace diversity and inclusiveness, all while being founded on peace and stability.

The Chinese president's commitment to modernization of Africa was backed by 10 partnership actions. These include mutual learning among civilizations, trade prosperity, industrial chain cooperation, connectivity, development cooperation, health, agriculture and livelihoods, people-to-people exchanges, green development and common security.

Xi pledged 360 billion yuan ($51 billion) in financial support over three years to help lay the foundation for Africa's modernization, meaning the 1.4billion Chinese people will each pay 85 yuan annually to support their African brothers and sisters. The plan includes increasing exchanges of state governance experience, providing zero-tariff treatment for all products from 33 African countries — making China the first major developing country to take such a step— expanding market access for African agricultural products, supporting Africa's industrialization efforts, and building 30 infrastructure connectivity projects.

Unlike the U.S., which pursues an interventionist foreign policy seeking world hegemony and often ties its aid to governance requirements (seen in Africa as meddlesome), China emphasizes noninterference and greater respect for cultural diversity. Beijing's policy of collective development aims to support Africa's growth on its own terms. This ensures that African countries can develop their own governance capabilities and explore modernization according to their own visions and national conditions.

Beijing's military assistance aims to build the continent's capacity to protect its peace and ensure that Africa's economic rejuvenation isn't hampered by regional instability. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, after meeting with Xi, said the Beijing-Abuja comprehensive strategic partnership would result in "robust development, stability and security" in West Africa, describing how regional leaders saw China's security engagement as a contribution to peace.

Xi also pledged to provide emergency food assistance, build about 6,670 hectares of standardized agriculture demonstration areas, deploy 500 agriculture experts, and establish a China-Africa agricultural science and technology innovation alliance. Through these initiatives, Xi reinforced his support not only for Africa's deprived people but also for African farmers and the development of the continent's agricultural sector.

Xi also hosted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and the two leaders announced an "all-round strategic cooperative partnership in the new era" between their countries. They also signed several agreements covering areas such as trade, market access and the application of China's Beidou navigation satellite system.

South Africa's key priorities include poverty reduction, job creation for millions and advancing artificial intelligence. Xi proposed deepening cooperation in several areas that align with these goals, such as the digital economy, AI and new energy. Beijing has also committed to sharing its experience in poverty alleviation and rural revitalization with Pretoria. These initiatives will bolster both the bilateral relationship and South Africa's economy.

Xi's pledge to encourage Chinese companies to invest in Africa's pharmaceutical production, establish 20 digital demonstration projects, support poverty reduction efforts and create 1 million jobs will help ensure continental development is inclusive and widespread. This will allow China and Africa to "embrace together" the latest round of technological revolution and industrial transformation.

China's stellar economic growth and desire to share the outcomes of its development have long inspired African countries. Shedding light on China-Africa's more than six-decade-old relationship, Kenyan President William Ruto recently admired how the China-invested Global Trade Center in Nairobi had become a landmark of China-Africa cooperation, attracting many companies to invest and start businesses in the region.

Ruto proposed combining China's renewable energy technologies with Africa's abundant resources. This approach, coupled with Beijing's expertise in green development, could significantly boost the continent's sustainable growth, enhancing the region's climate resilience. Xi's announcement to launch 30 clean energy projects, establish 30 joint laboratories and launch a China-Africa peaceful nuclear technology forum sets the tone for a sustainable Africa and opens new avenues of cooperation.

China has been accused of extracting critical minerals from Africa. However, Beijing is estimated to account for just less than half of what Western countries control on the continent, and its presence is largely concentrated in just a few countries. Meanwhile, Gotion High Tech, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to build a gigafactory in Morocco. The project aims to boost Africa's electrification and decarbonization efforts. Morocco's Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch, who represented his country at FOCAC, has expressed support for the initiative.

Beijing is a key African partner in narrowing the continent's energy accessibility gap. Through its global leadership in solar panel manufacturing, China has become instrumental in reducing the costs of clean energy worldwide. Beijing's triumphs in green development are evident in Africa, where Chinese companies are involved in several major renewable energy projects such as South Africa's 100-megawatt Redstone Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Plant, Botswana's first 100-megawatt solar plant and China's Africa Solar Belt Program. These projects are delivering benefits to local communities.

During the summit, 30 African countries either established or elevated their strategic partnerships with China, solidifying the China-Africa partnership as a "main pillar" of South-South cooperation. The Beijing Declaration, adopted unanimously by China and 53 African countries, affirms China's approach of equal treatment, respect for Africa's political and economic choices, and noninterference while supporting the continent's modernization. This will, as Xi said, "set off a wave of modernization in the Global South," offering equitable, inclusive and just opportunities for the developing world.

*My article that first appeared at "China's Diplomacy in the New Era"

China builds conditions for Africa's stability and sustainable growth

By: Azhar Azam

Held every three years alternately in China and Africa, the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), set to take place in Beijing shortly, is one of the longest existing and most sought-after global diplomatic events, as well as the most comprehensive and impactful platform that promotes collective dialogue and practical cooperation between the two historic partners.

Several African leaders are gearing up for the fete as they look to strengthen their strategic partnerships with China, upscale regional and multilateral cooperation to support global peace and security, intensify cooperation in the green and blue economies, agriculture, technology and infrastructure development, derive benefits from the summit and seek China's role in post-conflict reconstruction.

In 2021, China and Africa jointly formulated the China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035. This Vision incorporated aspirations of the Africa Union (AU) Agenda 2063 and national development strategies of African countries such as sustainable economic and social development, job creation, ending poverty, improving education, water and power supply facilities and promoting peace, inclusive growth and industrialization, proposing green and low-carbon and digital development and renewable energy cooperation.

China's infrastructure projects – including highways, railways, ports, bridges and submarine cables – have served more than 900 million Africans through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing's water-saving pilot areas in Mauritania, Nigeria and Ethiopia are benefiting the local communities; the use of Juncao grass technology is creating green jobs in African countries, such as Kenya and Rwanda.

Regarding the energy crisis in Africa and its proneness to climate change, the continent's green development will be one of the key areas of focus at the FOCAC. Beijing has implemented several clean energy projects in Africa such as the Garissa Solar Power Station in Kenya and Kaleta Hydropower Station in Guinea, alleviating African countries' energy shortages; its emphasis on green development will accelerate Africa's clean transition and fortify its efforts to cope with the climate challenges.

China is helping African countries modernize their digital landscape by investing in the continent's internet infrastructure and connectivity through the BRI. Such investments are advancing Africa's aim of bolstering its telecommunications and data infrastructure as Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE have helped expand mobile and internet access across Africa in addition to facilitating economic activities and furthering social development and digital inclusion.

The China-Africa internet development and digital cooperation forums are ascertaining the expansion of collaboration to artificial intelligence, which is estimated to increase Africa's GDP by $2.9 trillion through 2030, and the sharing of expertise in digital development and information and communication technology that will drive the continent's digitalization, and poverty alleviation efforts to build digital capacity.

Conversely, the U.S. is attempting to make Africa a theater of its strategic competition with China. As Kenya's President William Ruto arrived on a state visit to Washington this May, senior Biden administration's officials acknowledged countering China's influence was the shaping factor behind scheduling this trip.

The U.S. President Joe Biden's own commitment to Africa is vague. Hosting the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit in 2022, he vowed to visit Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023 but he broke his pledge. Resultantly, Ruto's visit to Washington was seen by observers as a "fig leaf" that was meant to compensate for the failure to keep his promise.

In comparison, Chinese President Xi Jinping last year visited South Africa for the 15th BRICS Summit and met several African leaders, receiving applause for China's contributions. In Kenya particularly, Beijing has undertaken vital projects such as the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway and Nairobi Expressway, which have directly benefited people and boosted the Kenyan economy by significantly slashing logistics and transport costs, and underscore its goals of extending fiscal support to Nairobi.

China is criticized by Western analysts for a trade imbalance with Africa. Yet the criticism lacks substance given inexpensive Chinese goods have eased the pressure of regional countries' forex reserves and the scale of China-Africa trade has increased from less than 100 billion Chinese yuan (about $14 billion) in 2000 to 1.98 trillion yuan in 2023.

U.S. attempts to make the continent an arena for its geopolitical rivalry with China could instead complicate Africa's goals, posing a far bigger threat to Africa's peace and prosperity than that of China's.

China's relationship with Africa has been built on a common vision of mutual respect and shared peace and development. After getting rejected even from many of its own allies for its framing of a "great power competition" and hearing a "resounding no" from the Global South in 2023 for U.S. hegemony, America's new cold war psyche faces a strong rebuke from Africa.

As the U.S. continues to release mere statements of solidarity while trying to undermine Africa's unity in a bid to counter China in the continent, Beijing is making efforts to create conditions to help Africa pursue economic growth, focus on people's well-being and protect stability. China's booming approval by African people underscores that its approach toward the region is consistent with Africa's own vision and provides a solution to the pressing continental challenges.

*My article that first appeared at "CGTN"

The Economist cites an excerpt of my article

The Economist cites an excerpt of my article:

A view from elsewhere

Ms Harris has “panned” Mr Trump’s plan to increase tariffs as “Trump’s sales tax”, wrote Azhar Azam in the Express Tribune, a Pakistani newspaper. Yet the Biden administration is seeking to “clamp down on the ‘abuse’” of “de minimis” exemptions used by Chinese e-commerce platforms, which exclude low-value parcels from duties. This could cost American consumers, as well as potentially “harming small businesses and provoking retaliation”.

Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’ is paying off, at least for now

 By: Azhar Azam

My article that appeared in the South China Mornnig Post

Upcoming China-Africa summit set to deepen ties

By: Azhar Azam

Beijing is set to host the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) from Sept. 4-6.

Since its inception in 2000, FOCAC has become the primary platform for China-Africa economic, diplomatic and political partnerships. Unlike other ad hoc initiatives, it was institutionalized from the outset with a clear operating structure and a robust monitoring mechanism. This ensures the implementation of all policies and measures agreed upon at the forum and the accomplishment of its objectives: equal consultation, enhanced understanding, expanded consensus, strengthened friendship and promoted cooperation.

China's Africa policy is guided by the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence – mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence. These principles are considered in Africa as key elements to create a peaceful and prosperous world and they continue to be the centerpiece of the China-Africa relationship. This, alongside Beijing's clean slate regarding colonization of any state or region, in contrast to the West's colonial past, has made China Africa's most trusted development and trade partner.

The African Union (AU) Agenda 2063 outlines seven aspirations to realize its vision of a peaceful and growing Africa. Several of these aspirations align with China's foreign policy, including shared prosperity, dialogue-centered conflict resolution, African unity against external interference, and Africa's role as a global partner. This alignment suggests compatibility between Chinese and African approaches.

Beijing's relations with the continent have also blossomed over the decades through various mechanisms, especially FOCAC, which seeks to deepen trade, investment, infrastructure and economic cooperation with Africa. This contrasts with past Western perceptions of the continent and, in particular, U.S. efforts to influence and bully African nations.

At the Eighth Ministerial Conference of the FOCAC in 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans to import $300 billion worth of products from Africa in the next three years. With imports of $117.5 billion in 2022, $109 billion in 2023, and $69.1 billion in the first seven months of 2024, China has almost met its promise ahead of schedule.

China has agreed to participate in developing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and support its secretariat. Africa's welcome of Chinese involvement demonstrates Beijing's commitment to the continent, as the agreement aims to foster industrialization, create jobs, attract investment and lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty — areas where Africa can learn from China's experience.

As reported, Beijing has helped Africa build and upgrade more than 10,000 kilometers of railways, construct nearly 100,000 km of highways and lay over 60,000 km of submarine cables. It has also built nearly 1,000 bridges, 100 ports and over 100 health facilities and schools across Africa under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Accusations that China is reducing infrastructure projects or creating dependence through the BRI are misleading. African leaders themselves have rebuffed such false narratives. For instance, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said last year that the BRI had led to new road, rail, port and energy investments across the continent, generating jobs, improving regional connectivity and promoting innovation.

While others merely talked about investment, China actually poured investment into Africa without moral lecturing. "Perhaps China was more audacious, perhaps they have more vision and perhaps they trusted the potential in Africa," said Moussa Faki, chairperson of the AU Commission, at the G20 Compact with Africa summit in November last year.

At the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, President Xi revealed plans for numerous signature projects and "small yet smart" people-centered programs. He announced that the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China would set up a 350-billion-yuan ($49 billion) financing window and inject an additional 80 billion yuan into the Silk Road Fund.

This, along with promoting green development in infrastructure, energy and transportation, will benefit Africa, powering its green growth and bolstering its capacity to fight poverty and climate change — key priorities within FOCAC.

Four in five people of the world's 675 million living without electricity are from Sub-Saharan Africa. Hundreds of China's renewable energy projects, including Morocco's NOOR II and NOOR III solar power projects, Egypt's 500-megawatt Gulf of Suez II wind farm and Kenya's Garissa solar power plant, are helping Africa address its energy and climate crises. FOCAC plays a critical role in building a climate-resilient African green economy.

Africa has a keen interest in industrialization. As the continent's integration has gradually deepened, several African governments asked China to consider focusing on their industrialization in recent years. In response, President Xi, last year at the China-Africa Leaders' Dialogue, announced three major programs: the Initiative on Supporting Africa's Industrialization, the Plan for China Supporting Africa's Agricultural Modernization and the Plan for China-Africa Cooperation on Talent Development. These aim to support Africa's industrialization, upgrade its agriculture sector and boost innovation.

China's efforts aim to boost Africa's independence and economic growth, reflecting its continued commitment to the continent's development. This is evident in the trade of intermediate goods, which are crucial for Africa's industrialization and diversification and account for nearly 68% of China-Africa trade.

Following Xi's pledge to open "green lanes" for Africa and support the continent's agricultural modernization, China has become the largest export market for African agricultural products. While the U.S. and other Western nations maintain high tariffs on African farm produce, China has held economic and trade expos to promote African imports. These include Ethiopian coffee, Kenyan avocados and flowers, as well as Madagascar's essential oils, marking a significant shift in African agricultural exports and bilateral relations.

A recent example of cooperation is the China-Africa Forum on Digital Cooperation, culminating in the Action Plan for China-Africa Digital Cooperation and Development. The forum provided a platform to share experiences in digital and information communication technology, potentially advancing African economies' digital transformation. It could strengthen China-Africa ties in areas such as e-commerce, digital infrastructure, security, 5G and 6G technology, artificial intelligence and e-governance.

FOCAC has evolved from a multilateral coordination mechanism into a model of South-South cooperation. Over the years, it has addressed challenges through collective consultation and strategic understanding. An African proverb aptly describes this relationship: "If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together." The upcoming FOCAC summit aims to reinforce bilateral friendship and further develop a China-Africa community with a shared future. Its success will not only benefit China and Africa, but also the world as a whole.

*My article that first appeared at "China's Diplomacy in the New Era" and "China Focus"

Hungary's 'peace mission' reveals a split within the EU

By: Azhar Azam

The EU foreign affairs meeting was held in Brussels on August 29. The informal summit originally scheduled under the rotating presidency of the EU council, Hungary, was moved to the Belgian capital over Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's "peace missions" to peacefully resolve the Ukraine conflict.

"We have to send a signal, even if this is a symbolic signal," said Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, announcing the change of venue. Stripping Budapest of its right to hold the meeting prompted a swift condemnation from Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto who said, "What a fantastic response they have come up with…it feels like being in a kindergarten."

While this is unfortunate in the 21st century that a country is criticized, penalized and stigmatized for making efforts to start peace negotiations and seek a diplomatic solution of the conflict, it also reveals a clear divide in the Union.

Budapest has a keen interest in resolving the conflict given it is one of Ukraine's neighboring countries, and is directly exposed to economic shocks as well spillover effects of the conflict. Yet Budapest's concerns were not addressed, leading into a messy situation and differences within the EU.

Szijjarto is critical of Europe's peace approach and policy of following the U.S., a country with a long history of fanning the flames of war the world over. Stating Europe had no peace strategy and there was no consensus across the continent on key issues, Szijjarto said that he didn't understand why the continent was copying America with no voice of its own.

His remarks echoed those of French President Emmanuel Macron who has been urging the EU not to become a U.S. "vassal," saying it should become independent and self-reliant. Szijjarto's Facebook post, complaining about Brussels failing to ensure oil supplies for its own members, indicated a growing frustration and declining trust in the bloc's ability to protect interests of its fellow states.

The Hungarian foreign minister views all this as a fallout of Orban's multi-nation trips to promote peace. Early last month, Orban launched his "peace mission," meeting the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and asking him to consider a ceasefire to speed up the peace talks and make his contributions to solve the biggest EU challenge. Hungary's president also offered his country's support to modernize Ukraine's economy, describing his pro-peace approach and intent to play a role to rebuild Ukraine.

While Orban's trip to Ukraine was itself a silent endorsement of his peace efforts by Kyiv, in a follow-up of his "peace mission," he went to Russia and discussed the prospects of a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine conflict. Some European officials criticized him even though he has been a longtime proponent of a cessation of hostilities to secure Europe and several other European leaders had also made such attempts.

The White House voiced concern, asserting the visit would "not advance the cause of peace" although the mission had just begun, exposing America's efforts to derail any potential peace process in addition to undressing its restiveness about the success of a ceasefire in a conflict that is helping the U.S. arms industry to thrive, yet ravaging European economies.

In the final leg of his trip, Orban arrived in China, which has also offered a peace plan to discuss a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Stating it was in the interest of all countries to seek a political solution through an early ceasefire, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that the international community should create conditions for the resumption of direct dialogue and negotiations between the two sides and provide assistance.

China's Ukraine peace plan – covering important areas such as respecting sovereignty of all countries, resuming talks after ceasing hostilities and protecting civilians – has been widely debated and supported by countries worldwide. This underscored the global embrace of Beijing's peace proposal and the world's rejection of the U.S. propaganda that China was helping Russia by supplying dual-use goods.

The Ukraine conflict has not only inflicted serious damage on Europe but also the entire world. This "wartime psychosis," fueled by the U.S., could trigger a hemorrhage of the European economy, making it even more dependent on America. Moreover, a prolonged conflict will adversely affect the rest of the world.

A broad split within the EU on the shift of the meeting's venue and an intensifying belief across many European countries on the negotiated solution of the conflict is an explicit renunciation of the U.S.-imposed pro-war approach on the bloc, revealing the intent of several EU nations to regain the autonomy of developing an independent policy, which serves their own interests and bring peace to the region.

*My article that first appeared at the CGTN

EU should extend strong commitment with Africa’s industrialization

By: Azhar Azam

Africa is blessed with enormous natural capital. The continent holds 8% and 12% of the world’s natural gas and oil as well as 40% of the world’s gold; it is estimated to have 30% of the world’s critical minerals and has potential to produce green hydrogen with 60% of the world’s best solar resources.

Still, the continent is the world's most impoverished region and poor headcount continues to rise. In 2014, just 14% of the world's poor lived in Africa; in 2019, the number rose to 57% in 2019. Population growth, wars and conflicts, climate change, diseases, inadequate agriculture infrastructure and unjust trade structure with America and Europe heavily subsidizing their agriculture sectors have caused poverty crises across the continent to aggravate.

Other factors such as gold smuggling worth $30 billion every year, global economic conditions, geopolitical rivalries and debt service payments have contributed to poverty too, leaving African governments with limited financial resources to channel funds to fight poverty and climate change.

Slower economic growth, after it averaged 5% between 1999 and 2014 and brought poverty down from 57% to 38%, is also a major reason behind rising poverty. According to Africa's Pulse most recent report, economic growth in the region is likely to bounce back and reach 3.4% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025; this expansion it warns will be "insufficient to have a significant effect on poverty reduction."

With $6.5 trillion of natural resources and 65% of the world's uncultivated arable land, resource-rich countries have no excuse to remain poor, said African Development Bank Group President Dr Akinwumi Adesina last year, noting the Bank and its partners had provided $4.6 billion to develop dozens of Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones in 26 countries.

As demand for some of key substances such as lithium, between 2017 and 2022 tripled while that of cobalt and nickel jumped 70% and 40%, critical raw materials such as cobalt, copper, magnesium and lithium – critical to global energy transition and are found in abundance in the continent – urges regional countries develop a joint plan to capitalize on the opportunity to promote green industrialization in Africa.

“Imagine the potential if African minerals are processed into African batteries, installed into African cars that are driven across the continent and the world,” said UN Economic Commission for Africa’s deputy executive secretary, Antonio Pedro at a recent event in Addis Ababa, stressing this would accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and electrification of transport systems, generate jobs and transform Africa into a competitive hub for green industrialization.

The European Union (EU) lacks most of these resources and needs them to sustain their strong industrial base. Critical raw materials indeed were also one of six themes of the EU Global Gateway Forum 2023 for their crucial role in achieving the Union's climate ambitions. Given the bloc has financial strength and technical expertise in developing key industries, it could be a valuable African partner for the continental industrialization.

In the G-20 Compact with Africa conference in Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced to invest €4 billion in Africa's green energy through 2030 on top of the EU €3.4 billion. But the package omitted industrialization, an area where the continent's interests really lie over its potential to create jobs and accelerate inclusive and sustained growth, diversify the economy and reduce poverty.

Africa also seeks to leverage green hydrogen for its industrialization and decarbonization. It is ideally positioned to produce three-fifths of the world’s green hydrogen but accounts for just 1% of the global solar generation capacity. Africa's geographic proximity to Europe and unique position to flip the script on fossil fuel could pave the way for a robust Africa-EU partnership.

Since continent has a potential to produce $1.06 trillion of green hydrogen yet needs massive upfront investments, the EU investments can help foster green industrialization in Africa where foreign direct investment (FDI), after nearly halving in 2022 against a record $80 billion in 2021, was almost flat at $48 billion in 2023.

Under the Global Gateway, Brussels has announced a €150 billion of investment package for Africa including scaling up African hydrogen production and exporting it to Europe. The initiative aims to accelerate Africa's green and digital transition, sustainable growth including regional economic integration and industrialization and decent job creation; more focus should be given to industrialization for it will increase productivity, raise living standards and lift people out of poverty in Africa.

Africa is slated to play a pivotal role in the achievement of the EU goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050. While Brussels should address Africa's concerns such as its “protectionist” carbon border tax on goods such as steel and cement – which could hamper the continental GDP, developing countries' exports to Europe and efforts to raise investments – the bloc must actively support Africa’s industrialization to make this partnership a win-win cooperation.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in the "Brussels News."

How Conservatives drove UK into Islamophobia?

By: Azhar Azam

The violent protests in the aftermath of the fatal stabbing of three young girls at a dance class in the seaside English town of Southport are showing no signs of unwinding after social media posts spread disinformation that the killer was a Muslim migrant. Soon the far-right “thugs” attacked the mosque and police, burning down a police van with 27 officers taken to the hospital.

Since then, anti-immigrants rioters have been looting shops, targeting hotels housing asylum seekers, assaulting mosques and ethnic minority communities especially Muslims and their businesses, setting cars alight, vandalizing the properties and throwing petrol bombs at law enforcement forces.

Shocked by the worst strife in the UK in more than a decade, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged to crush the violence against vulnerable groups with full force. "Whatever the apparent motivation, this is not protest, it is pure violence and we will not tolerate attacks on mosques or our Muslim communities.”

While newly-elected Starmer makes efforts to quell violence, the Conservatives’ role in fueling the anti-Muslim sentiments couldn’t be ignored. In 2018, Boris Johnson’s derogatory characterization of Muslim women wearing burka, a loose enveloping garment, as “letter box” and “bank robbers” intensified hate crimes against Muslims, stoking Islamophobia in Britain.

Same year, the UK’s first female cabinet minister Syeda Warsi complained that Islamophobia had become “very widespread” in the country after several Conservatives were found to have made or shared offensive remarks about Muslims. In 2019, she again warned the Tories were becoming “institutionally Islamophobic.”

This time, the party suspended 14 Conservative members for posting anti-Islam posts but didn’t take measures to tackle the dangerous phenomenon, allowing extremism and radicalization to grow. Even Dame Sara Khan, former adviser to three UK prime ministers, recently singled out her own Conservative governments for triggering this unprecedented violence because they didn’t allocate enough resources to the areas struggling with extremism.

Since long, academics too have been warning the conservatives about growing far-right activism in the society and their ambivalence to control such far-right racist groups. But they ignored these caveats and let the UK tip into violence on their watch.

British media’s role has also been controversial in the recent violence against people of color for it portrayed the anti-Muslim riots as a clash between far-right and Muslims. Phraseologies such as “Allahu Akbar” and assertions like the rioters were “justified in their anger” by British far-right activist Tommy Robinson or putting forward a political justification for anti-immigration riots by the conservative Lord Davies, though he later on apologized, speaks of a strong buildup of Islamophobia in the UK.

Such instances align these media outlets and campaigners with those who once abysmally described Islamophobia as “an entirely rational response to an illiberal, vindictive and frankly fascistic creed.” The downplaying of the threat by representing the violence as “deep-rooted anger” and “festering resentment” do not augur well for the UK and the British society either given these attempts would till the ground for racial hatred and pit communities against each other, intensifying the country’s challenges.

As the situation subsides, the Labor government must also assess the circumstances such as “unmet primary needs” that have driven youth into conducting extreme racist activities, challenging social cohesion and forcing black and brown people to live in fear.

After the global financial crisis, the Conservative governments made austerity the part and parcel of their fiscal policy. Its successive prime ministers chose to sync themselves with the guiding principle set by their ancestors and constrained their financial resources through tax cuts, which led to curtailed public funding and real wage stagnation.

By the end of the Tory rule, stalled productivity, the biggest fall in spending power over the last 70 years, a sharp rise in poverty of 22%, deafening cost of living crisis and high inflation had added insult to the injury, exacerbating the UK economic challenges and providing a ripe ground for civil strife.

The newly-elected prime minister needs to quickly draw a lesson from the mistakes of his predecessors who ruined British society by turning a blind eye on Islamophobia and undermined the economy through tax cuts while humming the British values internationally without making any significant efforts to establish them domestically.

For more than a decade, the Conservatives ruled Britain yet rather than promoting interfaith harmony and addressing Britons’ economic concerns, they exploited the societal rifts to cling to power. As a result, Starmer has to contest a two-pronged challenge: rein in Islamophobia and racial prejudice to help the Muslim and other communities guard themselves against the grinding hatred and to bring back UK from the cusp of extremism as well as hike taxes, which may be a politically risky decision but is crucial to reinstate the UK economy and curb the growing sense of despair in British citizens.

*My article (unedited) that appeared in the "Brussels Morning" and the Express Tribune with the title "How Tories drove UK into Islamobhobia?"

Why has the UK descended into violence？

By: Azhar Azam

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday vowed to quell anti-immigration riots in the country with full force. "Whatever the apparent motivation, this is not protest. It is pure violence and we will not tolerate attacks on mosques or our Muslim communities," he said after convening an urgent meeting.

The UK has been gripped with unrest and "far right thuggery" after three primary school girls were killed and several others injured in a fatal stabbing by a 17-year-old boy last week in the northwest town of Southport. The violence broke out once social media posts falsely disseminated the suspected attacker was a radical Muslim migrant.

Ever since, minority ethnic communities, especially Muslims, have been assaulted with shocking scenes of shops being looted, mosques, Asian-owned businesses and police attacked, and cars set alight.

These violent events cannot and must not be tolerated and all the UK government's efforts to suppress the appalling unrest should be supported internationally since there is no excuse for killing innocent people as well as looting shops, vandalizing property, torching the hotel and attacking the police and throwing petrol bombs at them.

However, once the situation calms and order is restored, London should review the factors such as allowing the anti-immigrant rhetoric to burgeon and become widespread over the last few years, which has emboldened the protesters to challenge peace in the country and safety of the Britons. The result is a more divided community with black and brown people being forced to live in fear.

The law and order in the UK has turned so gruesome that former country's head of Counter Terrorism Policing Neil Basu has sought to treat the violence as terrorism. "Not only does it fit the definition of terrorism, it is terrorism. It's nothing short of an attempt at a modern-day lynching and the people who did it should be facing life imprisonment, not a five-year sentence for violent disorder."

Knife crimes have become prevalent in the UK. According to the country's home office, more than 14,500 offenses were recorded last year, 46 percent of all homicides across Britain. Per the Labor Party, such crimes have risen nearly 80 percent since 2015, describing an arduous task for Prime Minister Starmer who during his campaign promised to tackle knife crimes as his "absolute priority."

Starmer should also consider an array of entwined factors driving violence in the UK. For instance, certain vulnerabilities within the UK youth such as "unmet primary needs" due to poverty, inequality and austerity cuts have allowed criminals and gangs to tempt youth into doing such violent activities.

While analysts blame the Conservative Party and British media for playing a destructive role in radicalizing the UK youth and instigating the violence, criticizing the attempts to frame the unrest as legitimate – scholars have also slammed the conservatives for ignoring the years-long warnings about growing far-right activism in the society and exploiting divisions in the UK with their complicity toward such far-right groups. Even former adviser to three UK prime ministers, Dame Sara Khan, held the Conservative government responsible for the chaos, saying the country was "woefully unprepared" to handle the catastrophe.

Still, British mainstream media is downplaying the threat by representing the violence as "deep-rooted anger" and "festering resentment" as some conservative leaders are trying to take political advantage of the mayhem. Burning down hotels and a children's library, looting shops, setting cars on fire, breaking windows, and assaulting mosques, black, Arab and Asian communities and police with mobsters roaming in streets cannot be defended and must be straightly and thoroughly condemned.

The violence has put the UK justice system to the test which has been overstretched over previous UK administrations' lack of focus on domestic issues. Just last month, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced the release of thousands of prisoners who had served 40 percent of their sentences to "avert disaster." Unfortunately, the Starmer government now has to suddenly ramp up prison places and deploy a "standing army" to cope with the crisis, which was in the making for years but his predecessors ignored.

For more than a decade, the Tories ruled Britain. Throughout their tenure, their austerity on public services adversely impacted the police force's ability to respond to domestic challenges; it risked the lives of more than one million children with real-term cuts, increased poverty, homelessness and unemployment and bred more apathy, shirking their basic responsibility of providing a safe and secure environment to the Britons. Resultantly, the UK has descended into violence.

*My article that first appeared in "CGTN"

NATO is a key US tool to drive up its arms sales

By: Azhar Azam


A “robust and flexible” defense industry lies at the center of NATO’s “core business,” deterrence and defense. Marking 75 years of the military alliance, NATO leaders recently convened in Washington and committed to accelerate the growth of industrial capacity and production across member states.

Over the years, NATO has become a tool for the US to drive up the sales of its defense companies. For decades, the military coalition has been creating a market for US arms and by urging allies to increase their defense spending to 2% of GDP, it seeks to provide America with a thriving defense industry.

More than two-thirds of Europe’s defense acquisitions or $140 billion in the last two years, revealed outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, were made from US companies, showcasing how the crisis on European shores was helping the powerful US military-industrial complex to advance its objectives.

The Ukraine conflict has allowed America’s defense industry to witness a boom at the expense of NATO’s European allies as by end of last year, new contracts to supply arms to Ukraine or backfill the US weapons had started to flow to US defense contractors.

Industrial production in the US defense and space sector had increased 17.5% since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in February; it continues to rise, reaching nearly 10% above its year-earlier level in May. The US officials have acknowledged “bulk of this money is going right back into the US economy to make those weapons including good paying jobs."

Several analyses also found much of the assistance appropriated by Congress to Ukraine had returned to America – benefitting the domestic arms industry, offering once-in-a-generation opportunity and injecting 0.5% of one year’s GDP into the US defense industrial base over several years.

While Washington and allies since 24-February-2022 has provided $51.2 billion in military assistance to Kyiv; it in the financial year 2023 alone struck arms deals of $80.9 billion, mostly with European countries. This underscores America’s defense industry is being boosted by the Biden administration’s military aid to Ukraine as well as arms sales to Europe, whose major arms imports have doubled. NATO’s expansion and Israel’s relentless brutality against Palestinians too are opportunities for the US to push the demand of its arms sales.

Adding financial and humanitarian support, non-US states have provided significantly more than the US, boasted Stoltenberg; still, they are threatened by Donald Trump who encouraged Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to Europe with his skepticism of Ukraine, NATO and the European Union (EU).

Joe Biden and Trump have divergent approaches toward NATO; both seek to maximize from this “generational type investment.” And NATO is helping the US to realize its goal of boosting its arms sales. Stoltenberg’s assertion “The paradox is that the longer we plan, and the longer we commit, the sooner Ukraine can have peace” and alliance’s intent to “provide a minimum baseline funding of €40 billion within the next year” to Ukraine describe the US defense factories will keep producing arms to fuel the war in Europe for at least another year.

Earlier this year, the US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called NATO “the most powerful and successful alliance” in history with Stoltenberg echoing his assertion at the Washington Summit. But the alliance's humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan busts these claims, exposing a veiled coordination between the US and NATO to issue a “blank check” to the US arms industry.

In fact, NATO, supposed to create “shield against aggression,” has botched miserably in its military missions, spreading chaos, instability and horror across countries through its illegal invasions, failed operations and killing of civilians. It continues to face a failure in its biggest cold war test in Ukraine for the alliance never chose the path of peace and pursued a zero-sum mindset of victory against Russia.

NATO is trying to expand its footprint in Asia-Pacific over munitions supplied by North Korea to Russia and Beijing’s “sharing (of) high-end technologies” with Moscow. As the US attempts to link the treaty's Article 5 of collective security with regional security to push its defense sales, such efforts could stoke confrontation with China and divide the world in global blocs.

Due to the US bloody and futile history of interventions, many Americans, especially the post-cold war generation, don’t want to see their country more involved in conflicts and wars or playing the role of the “world’s policeman.” Positive views of NATO in several countries including US, France, Germany and UK are plunging as a result of its deadly invasions that have brought starvation, destruction and death to civilians. NATO’s own polling has found the number of citizens who would vote to stay in the alliance has declined with a surge in those who would vote to leave NATO.

With $1.3trillion of defense spending – mostly by the US, thanks to massive defense sales – NATO is by far the world’s largest military alliance. As Washington forces Brussels into spending more on its defense and finding a military solution in Ukraine, this ambition is driven by America’s desire to extend its lead as the world’s biggest trader of arms.

The approaches of existing and former US presidents are no different from each other as both of them have incorporated a strong "defense industrial base" in their respective national security strategies. This policy to help flourish the corrupting influence of US military-industrial complex is at odds even with country’s own President Dwight Eisenhower who in his 1961 farewell address warned against this dangerous phenomenon and will undercut economy and geoeconomic role of EU, which is the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods and services and the biggest export market for 80 countries.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in the "Express Tribune"

Exposed: US attempts to invade China's cybersecurity

By: Azhar Azam

In response to the concerns raised by the international community and cybersecurity research entities, China's National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center (CVERC) and others on July 8 released complete details of its investigation about the alleged China-backed Volt Typhoon.

The secret disinformation campaign, orchestrated by the U.S. intelligence agencies in collaboration with anti-China U.S. politicians and cybersecurity authorities of the "Five Eyes" nations, hyped up "China cyber threat theory" with the objective of preserving its warrantless snooping powers on the people around the world including Americans and maintain its cyber hegemony through Section 702 of the U.S. Federal Intelligence Surveillance (FISA).

A U.S. court in May last year ruled the Federal Bureau of Intelligence (FBI) repeatedly violated the rules by improperly searching for information in a U.S. database of foreign intelligence 278,000 times over several years including on Americans as there was "no reasonable basis to expect they would return foreign intelligence or evidence of crime," drawing criticism of the unlawful searches and emphasizing the need of reining in the FBI's egregious abuses of the law.

The U.S. intelligence itself claims the law authorizes intelligence collection on foreign targets located overseas and can never be used to "target Americans anywhere or anyone" located in the U.S.; revelations such as the FBI's misuse of powers to hunt for information about Black Lives Matter protesters, congressional campaign donors and the U.S. lawmakers cast more doubts on the program's integrity. Still just this April, the U.S. Senate reauthorized the controversial spy program, allowing the U.S. intelligence agencies to conduct electronic eavesdropping and collect messages without any judicial warrant.

Even former U.S. President Donald Trump had urged Congress to oppose the bill that would reauthorize the U.S. intelligence's warrantless spying powers and said "Kill FISA, it was illegally used against me and many others. They spied on my campaign!!!" This endorses CVERC's exposes that "Volt Typhoon" is a typical cognitive warfare operation but it actually targets the U.S. taxpayers, congressmen and political rivals and seeks more funds to push its offensive cyber operations against China.

Since May 2023, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, National Security Agency (NSA) and FBI have teamed up with the other federal agencies, Five Eyes cybersecurity institutions and industry partners and accused China-sponsored cyber actors, also known as Volt Typhoon, of "seeking to preposition themselves on information technology networks for disruptive or destructive cyber attacks against U.S. critical infrastructure in the event of a major crisis or conflict with the United States."

These efforts were intended, as the report disclosed, to defame China, sow discord between Beijing and its partners, contain China's development and crack down on the Chinese companies. The U.S. court's ruling on the FBI abuses and the fear of political fallouts in response to the Biden administration's activities to spy on its own people ahead of the presidential election drove the U.S. government to further focus on China and camouflage its malicious domestic activities.

One of the major goals of Washington's barrage of accusations on Beijing is to conceal its own cyber attacks against China. In this regard, CVERC's report has brought some telling and irrefutable evidence. According to its analysis of existing data, the U.S. government-backed hackers have carried out a whopping 45 million cyber attacks against the Chinese government, universities, research institutions, large enterprises and critical infrastructure.

Tradecrafts collected from the victim networks led to the cyber warfare program, being operated by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, NSA and FBI. The detection described a growing U.S. unease about China's development as well as raised doubts about Washington's nefarious cyber activities against sovereign countries under which it is believed to have created and implemented cyber weapons such as Stuxnet computer worm to derail Iran's nuclear program in addition to conducting cyber attacks against Tehran to damage the key elements of Iranian military command and control structures.

Over the last decades, Chinese institutions have released several reports that unmask the U.S. cyber attacks against China. In 2014, China's State Internet Information Office published data on Washington's cyber attacks against Beijing, showing America had the leading role in launching cyber attacks on China by means of Trojans, botnets, phishing and others.

The U.S. has historically created an unprecedented electronic espionage system the world over including in its own ally states, sparking tensions and causing distrust; NSA's targeting of nearly 50 countries and regions including China for more than 10 years through its cyber-attacks has now positioned the U.S. as the world's largest cyber invader.

America's silence on the new and prior report so far is indicative of its culpability. In 2013, an infamous U.S. PRISM surveillance program – which per Edward Snowden NSA operated with the FISA approval and gathered messaging data from Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple and other major tech companies – shattered America's plans to pressure China over alleged state-sponsored cyber attacks, owing China an explanation over its hacking activities.

More than a decade later, Washington once again is caught off guard by the new revelations that have exposed the U.S. disinformation campaign against China and whereby it has to clarify its position and stop smearing Beijing. This demands that U.S. officials come out of the shock and justify its attempts to sneak through China's cybersecurity via an intricate web of surveillance network.

*My article that first appeared at "CGTN"