October 26, 2024

Biden's de minimis move risks weakening Harris' campaign


Just days after the Democratic lawmakers urged the US President Joe Biden to exercise his executive powers to end a tariff “loophole,” his administration announced new actions to clamp down on the “abuse” of “de minimis” shipments, in particular from Chinese e-commerce platforms. These consignments over the last ten years had increased from about 140 million to one billion, making it challenging to block illicit synthetic drugs such as fentanyl, the White House readout asserted.

It is despite the proponents spurned the likelihood of any loophole in the exemption or that these low-value shipments contained fentanyl, citing screening of the “de minimis” imports by the Custom and Border Protection (CBP). All imports, regardless of value, are in fact rigorously monitored by the CBP for anti-forced labor compliance including the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and to enforce trade laws vis-à-vis intellectual property rights.

Leading industry groups have also rejected such propositions. National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC) – whose board includes Amazon and Walmart – in its letter to the Biden administration in March said there was no evidence that illegal drugs were prevalent in "de minimis," alluding to CBP data that showed 99% of fentanyl seizures occurred across areas, which were not a major channel for “de minimis," and estimate only 3% of fentanyl doses in 2024 would come through air cargo. A CBP official last year too dismissed the "misconception" the "de minimis" was a "loophole" and these cargoes were not screened.

In its recent report, the Drug Enforcement Agency has also acknowledged "Fentanyl (mainly sourced from China and India, which is becoming a "major source country" for illicit chemicals) manufactured by the Mexican cartels is the main driver behind the ongoing epidemic of drug poisoning deaths in the United States." The Department of Homeland Security's own data, which states 89% of all seizures in the cargo environment this fiscal year through July originated as “de minimis” shipments including 72% of health and safety seizures of prohibited items, further reveals the low-value packages are scrutinized at arrival in the US.

The administration's intent to "work with Congress" for key reforms including exclusion of "de minimis" shipments, covered by the Section 301, Section 201 or Section 232, as well as argument that the exemption is resulting in a flood of low-value products such as textiles and apparel into the US market duty-free unveils the flipside of the coin: curbing China's clothing exports to the US.

Inexpensive items like $5 t-shirts and $10 sweaters and dresses and digital advertisements by Chinese e-commerce platforms have benefited consumers and the US ad and shipping industry. As 70% of textiles and apparel imports from China are already subject to the Sections 301 tariffs, an imposition of duties on Chinese low-value goods will directly hit the US importers and consumers who, per the US government’s last year report, absorbed these costs and loved the torrent of ultra-cheap clothing.

The new rule risks firing back given it would wreak havoc on American consumers and businesses by triggering higher prices of everyday products like bags, dresses, toys and shoes from Chinese online marketplaces and fast fashion companies at a time when spiking inflation is set to become a burning issue in the presidential campaign.

In a recent debate with Donald Trump, the US Vice President Kamala Harris panned his rival’s plan to hike tariffs on all imports from 10% to 20% as well as slap 60% or more on Chinese goods for they would hurt the working families, characterizing it as “Trump’s sales tax.” With the administration’s new actions contradicting Harris' condemnation of Trump’s tariffs, the Democrats have given a tactic endorsement to the former president.

If enacted, the new rule could cause a drop in Harris’' approval rating, which has just edged past Trump. It's politically an unwise decision in an election year as per the NFTC, average price of "de minimis" package could double from $50, in case it "were to be eliminated or significantly degraded," suggesting American consumers would bear the brunt.

Over the years, “de minimis” has encouraged competition among e-commerce giants and delivered cheaper clothing, electronics and other home products to Americans. Purging of exemption will impact the revenues of Chinese firms; it could derail growth trajectory of the US ad industry while culminating in an estimated $8 billion to $30 billion in additional annual costs to American consumers other than harming small businesses and provoking retaliation.

Biden’s intent to crack down on Chinese e-commerce companies could inspire other countries to make changes in their “de minimis” policies, undermining American exporters’ competitiveness; they will add to the sufferings of the US low-income communities and small businesses, who could take the Democrats aback in the November election.

Rather than aggrandizing threats to American consumers and attracting their wrath by levying sweeping tariffs on “de minimis” shipments, the Biden administration should focus on staving off the challenges, being faced by the US citizens, to circumvent their angst later this year that would help Harris’ prospect to become the first ever woman president in the US history.

*My article unedited that first appeared in "Express Tribune"

October 23, 2024

China-Africa summit sparks new vision for Global South development

By: Azhar Azam

Lead: The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing heralds a new era in Sino-African relations, with agreements poised to benefit millions. Could this partnership be the blueprint for equitable growth across the Global South?

Beijing is increasingly becoming an icon and center of global cooperation. This was evident at the recently concluded 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing. Heads of state and top delegates from Africa, home to the world's largest number of developing nations, gathered in droves. They were greeted with reciprocity and respect by their counterparts from China, the world's largest developing country.

Contrast this with the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in December 2022. President Joe Biden held no one-on-one meetings with African leaders, raising questions about Washington's approach. The limited interactions sparked debate over whether the U.S. views Africa as a monolithic bloc or recognizes the diversity of its individual countries. Biden held a multilateral meeting with six African leaders, which is merely part of a broader U.S. strategy to promote liberal internationalism, with the U.S. acting as hegemon.

In Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping on last Monday alone had bilateral meetings with leaders from South Africa, Guinea, Eritrea, Seychelles, Djibouti, Togo, Comoros, Mali and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These meetings, and others that followed, were characterized by mutual respect, support for individual development paths, mutually beneficial cooperation and equal treatment.

This is one of the reasons why FOCAC has historically attracted more African leaders than many other global forums, including some of the world's most prominent multilateral gatherings. The 2024 FOCAC Summit drew more than 50 African leaders, underscoring its incredible significance. The high level of attendance reflects the strong bond between China and Africa, their trust in each other, and their determination to counter challenges and grow together.

Xi echoed this in his keynote speech at the summit's opening ceremony, emphasizing that modernization is an "inalienable right" of all countries. He described this modernization as just, equitable, open, and mutually beneficial. Xi added that it should be people-centered, eco-friendly, and embrace diversity and inclusiveness, all while being founded on peace and stability.

The Chinese president's commitment to modernization of Africa was backed by 10 partnership actions. These include mutual learning among civilizations, trade prosperity, industrial chain cooperation, connectivity, development cooperation, health, agriculture and livelihoods, people-to-people exchanges, green development and common security.

Xi pledged 360 billion yuan ($51 billion) in financial support over three years to help lay the foundation for Africa's modernization, meaning the 1.4billion Chinese people will each pay 85 yuan annually to support their African brothers and sisters. The plan includes increasing exchanges of state governance experience, providing zero-tariff treatment for all products from 33 African countries — making China the first major developing country to take such a step— expanding market access for African agricultural products, supporting Africa's industrialization efforts, and building 30 infrastructure connectivity projects.

Unlike the U.S., which pursues an interventionist foreign policy seeking world hegemony and often ties its aid to governance requirements (seen in Africa as meddlesome), China emphasizes noninterference and greater respect for cultural diversity. Beijing's policy of collective development aims to support Africa's growth on its own terms. This ensures that African countries can develop their own governance capabilities and explore modernization according to their own visions and national conditions.

Beijing's military assistance aims to build the continent's capacity to protect its peace and ensure that Africa's economic rejuvenation isn't hampered by regional instability. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, after meeting with Xi, said the Beijing-Abuja comprehensive strategic partnership would result in "robust development, stability and security" in West Africa, describing how regional leaders saw China's security engagement as a contribution to peace.

Xi also pledged to provide emergency food assistance, build about 6,670 hectares of standardized agriculture demonstration areas, deploy 500 agriculture experts, and establish a China-Africa agricultural science and technology innovation alliance. Through these initiatives, Xi reinforced his support not only for Africa's deprived people but also for African farmers and the development of the continent's agricultural sector.

Xi also hosted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and the two leaders announced an "all-round strategic cooperative partnership in the new era" between their countries. They also signed several agreements covering areas such as trade, market access and the application of China's Beidou navigation satellite system.

South Africa's key priorities include poverty reduction, job creation for millions and advancing artificial intelligence. Xi proposed deepening cooperation in several areas that align with these goals, such as the digital economy, AI and new energy. Beijing has also committed to sharing its experience in poverty alleviation and rural revitalization with Pretoria. These initiatives will bolster both the bilateral relationship and South Africa's economy.

Xi's pledge to encourage Chinese companies to invest in Africa's pharmaceutical production, establish 20 digital demonstration projects, support poverty reduction efforts and create 1 million jobs will help ensure continental development is inclusive and widespread. This will allow China and Africa to "embrace together" the latest round of technological revolution and industrial transformation.

China's stellar economic growth and desire to share the outcomes of its development have long inspired African countries. Shedding light on China-Africa's more than six-decade-old relationship, Kenyan President William Ruto recently admired how the China-invested Global Trade Center in Nairobi had become a landmark of China-Africa cooperation, attracting many companies to invest and start businesses in the region.

Ruto proposed combining China's renewable energy technologies with Africa's abundant resources. This approach, coupled with Beijing's expertise in green development, could significantly boost the continent's sustainable growth, enhancing the region's climate resilience. Xi's announcement to launch 30 clean energy projects, establish 30 joint laboratories and launch a China-Africa peaceful nuclear technology forum sets the tone for a sustainable Africa and opens new avenues of cooperation.

China has been accused of extracting critical minerals from Africa. However, Beijing is estimated to account for just less than half of what Western countries control on the continent, and its presence is largely concentrated in just a few countries. Meanwhile, Gotion High Tech, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to build a gigafactory in Morocco. The project aims to boost Africa's electrification and decarbonization efforts. Morocco's Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch, who represented his country at FOCAC, has expressed support for the initiative.

Beijing is a key African partner in narrowing the continent's energy accessibility gap. Through its global leadership in solar panel manufacturing, China has become instrumental in reducing the costs of clean energy worldwide. Beijing's triumphs in green development are evident in Africa, where Chinese companies are involved in several major renewable energy projects such as South Africa's 100-megawatt Redstone Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Plant, Botswana's first 100-megawatt solar plant and China's Africa Solar Belt Program. These projects are delivering benefits to local communities.

During the summit, 30 African countries either established or elevated their strategic partnerships with China, solidifying the China-Africa partnership as a "main pillar" of South-South cooperation. The Beijing Declaration, adopted unanimously by China and 53 African countries, affirms China's approach of equal treatment, respect for Africa's political and economic choices, and noninterference while supporting the continent's modernization. This will, as Xi said, "set off a wave of modernization in the Global South," offering equitable, inclusive and just opportunities for the developing world.

*My article that first appeared at "China's Diplomacy in the New Era"

October 19, 2024

China builds conditions for Africa's stability and sustainable growth

By: Azhar Azam

Held every three years alternately in China and Africa, the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), set to take place in Beijing shortly, is one of the longest existing and most sought-after global diplomatic events, as well as the most comprehensive and impactful platform that promotes collective dialogue and practical cooperation between the two historic partners.

Several African leaders are gearing up for the fete as they look to strengthen their strategic partnerships with China, upscale regional and multilateral cooperation to support global peace and security, intensify cooperation in the green and blue economies, agriculture, technology and infrastructure development, derive benefits from the summit and seek China's role in post-conflict reconstruction.

In 2021, China and Africa jointly formulated the China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035. This Vision incorporated aspirations of the Africa Union (AU) Agenda 2063 and national development strategies of African countries such as sustainable economic and social development, job creation, ending poverty, improving education, water and power supply facilities and promoting peace, inclusive growth and industrialization, proposing green and low-carbon and digital development and renewable energy cooperation.

China's infrastructure projects – including highways, railways, ports, bridges and submarine cables – have served more than 900 million Africans through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing's water-saving pilot areas in Mauritania, Nigeria and Ethiopia are benefiting the local communities; the use of Juncao grass technology is creating green jobs in African countries, such as Kenya and Rwanda.

Regarding the energy crisis in Africa and its proneness to climate change, the continent's green development will be one of the key areas of focus at the FOCAC. Beijing has implemented several clean energy projects in Africa such as the Garissa Solar Power Station in Kenya and Kaleta Hydropower Station in Guinea, alleviating African countries' energy shortages; its emphasis on green development will accelerate Africa's clean transition and fortify its efforts to cope with the climate challenges.

China is helping African countries modernize their digital landscape by investing in the continent's internet infrastructure and connectivity through the BRI. Such investments are advancing Africa's aim of bolstering its telecommunications and data infrastructure as Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE have helped expand mobile and internet access across Africa in addition to facilitating economic activities and furthering social development and digital inclusion.

The China-Africa internet development and digital cooperation forums are ascertaining the expansion of collaboration to artificial intelligence, which is estimated to increase Africa's GDP by $2.9 trillion through 2030, and the sharing of expertise in digital development and information and communication technology that will drive the continent's digitalization, and poverty alleviation efforts to build digital capacity.

Conversely, the U.S. is attempting to make Africa a theater of its strategic competition with China. As Kenya's President William Ruto arrived on a state visit to Washington this May, senior Biden administration's officials acknowledged countering China's influence was the shaping factor behind scheduling this trip.

The U.S. President Joe Biden's own commitment to Africa is vague. Hosting the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit in 2022, he vowed to visit Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023 but he broke his pledge. Resultantly, Ruto's visit to Washington was seen by observers as a "fig leaf" that was meant to compensate for the failure to keep his promise.

In comparison, Chinese President Xi Jinping last year visited South Africa for the 15th BRICS Summit and met several African leaders, receiving applause for China's contributions. In Kenya particularly, Beijing has undertaken vital projects such as the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway and Nairobi Expressway, which have directly benefited people and boosted the Kenyan economy by significantly slashing logistics and transport costs, and underscore its goals of extending fiscal support to Nairobi.

China is criticized by Western analysts for a trade imbalance with Africa. Yet the criticism lacks substance given inexpensive Chinese goods have eased the pressure of regional countries' forex reserves and the scale of China-Africa trade has increased from less than 100 billion Chinese yuan (about $14 billion) in 2000 to 1.98 trillion yuan in 2023.

U.S. attempts to make the continent an arena for its geopolitical rivalry with China could instead complicate Africa's goals, posing a far bigger threat to Africa's peace and prosperity than that of China's.

China's relationship with Africa has been built on a common vision of mutual respect and shared peace and development. After getting rejected even from many of its own allies for its framing of a "great power competition" and hearing a "resounding no" from the Global South in 2023 for U.S. hegemony, America's new cold war psyche faces a strong rebuke from Africa.

As the U.S. continues to release mere statements of solidarity while trying to undermine Africa's unity in a bid to counter China in the continent, Beijing is making efforts to create conditions to help Africa pursue economic growth, focus on people's well-being and protect stability. China's booming approval by African people underscores that its approach toward the region is consistent with Africa's own vision and provides a solution to the pressing continental challenges.

*My article that first appeared at "CGTN"

October 16, 2024

The Economist cites an excerpt of my article

The Economist cites an excerpt of my article:

A view from elsewhere

Ms Harris has “panned” Mr Trump’s plan to increase tariffs as “Trump’s sales tax”, wrote Azhar Azam in the Express Tribune, a Pakistani newspaper. Yet the Biden administration is seeking to “clamp down on the ‘abuse’” of “de minimis” exemptions used by Chinese e-commerce platforms, which exclude low-value parcels from duties. This could cost American consumers, as well as potentially “harming small businesses and provoking retaliation”.