March 13, 2018

US-China Trade Deficit Mounts albeit Manufacturing Jobs Return

By: Azhar Azam

Trump repeatedly slated China for ripping United States in trade and threatened to slap 45% tariff on everything from China – arguing that the America has lost 70,000 factories ever since China entered into the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Now he fitfully tweeted that the lost factories are 55,000 besides loss of 6 million manufacturing jobs and accumulating trade deficit of $12 trillion since Bush Sr. through 2017 – including his first year for ‘Bad Policies and Leadership’.

In his hardnosed speeches, he frequently professed China an economic boogeyman and currency manipulator who is competing unfairly with other countries including United States to upturn its exports at the cost of US manufacturing jobs.

He incessantly accused China, Mexico, and some other countries for ‘greatest jobs theft’ in the history of the America – proclaiming that US companies moved jobs to these countries and vowed to bring them back into the US.

BUT on the completion of his first year in the White House as US President, Trump only managed to increase US reliance on China’s goods.



From January 2017 to December 2017, United States endured the largest-ever trade deficit with China in goods of $375 billion as US goods imports from People’s Republic rumbled to peak $506 billion – by $43 billion or 9.3 percent.

With US exported $130 billion of goods to China in 2017 – the trade gap kept on echoing that against every $1 of goods exported to China, the United States imported about $4 of goods for the closed year.

Farcically, the trade deficit in goods with China alone was responsible for more than 66 percent of the US trade deficit in goods and services combined as well as accounted for over 46 percent of US trade deficit in goods in 2017.

US trade deficit in goods and service represented $566 billion in 2017 – an increase of $61.2 billion from 2016. It exported $2,329 billion of goods and services and imported $2,895 billion of goods and services in 2017.

The country’s trade deficit in goods in 2017 alarmingly ballooned to $810.0 billion – an increase of $57.5 billion or 7.6 percent from $752.5 billion in 2016, though was partially offset by services trade surplus of $244.0 billion.

Besides China, US goods imports from Mexico, Canada, and Japan also increased by 6.8 percent, 8.0 percent, and 3.4 percent respectively. Parenthetically, the same four countries are also the top exporting markets of US goods.

Manufacturing jobs – the crux of Trump’s campaign – have however increased by 245,000 – from 12.369 million in January 2017 to 12.614 million in February 2018, according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data shows an increase of 189,000 in manufacturing jobs for 2017, second-largest to 209,000 in 2015.

United States heavily relies on manufacturing exports which makes 85.5 percent of total US goods exports. In 2017, manufacturing exports have grown only by $58.9 billion against manufacturing imports increase of $109.9 billion.

Although Trump’s hoax – to influence voters’ sentient over China stealing their jobs – bargained him a win, yet he has completely flopped to meet his promise on ‘economic enemy’ and in its place, almost doubled the increase in trade gap with China.

The Trump’s Administration dubs these mounting imbalances over termination of ‘job-killing’ Trans-Pacific Treaty (TPT) and renegotiating North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and several other reasons.

Disappointed Trump is now seeking China for a plan to cut the US trade deficit by $100 billion – by 27 percent of trade gap in 2017. Simultaneously, he is threatening a host of actions – starting from ‘misdirected’ tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Chinese steel production – which supplies half of the total world steel output – is the newest target of Trump’s ire. But China already is slowing its steel production to stomach its steel over-capacity (831 million tons), leaving millions jobless.

Its aluminum output was only 36 million tons in 2017 – the exports of which fell 30% from 2016 to 63 million tons. The production was still 25% of the global aluminum production and more than twice of Japan’s 30 million tons.

Now the Trump Administration cuffed a tariff of 25% on import of steel and 10% on the import of aluminum to screw China – giving reprieve to Canada and Mexico and possibly Australia in future.

US steel products imports totaled $31.0 billion in 2017 and China made up only about 3.5% or $1.1 billion for the year – half of its steel exports valued at $2.2 billion to the United States in 2015.

Canada, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, and Japan are the top exporters of steel products to the US while China is not even in the top-10. Trump believes that China’s exports of steel products is much higher as it transport thee goods through transshipments.

Consequently, as the Trump Administration goes on to punish China on steel and aluminum trade – the tariff surge is more likely to target US own allies, Japan and South Korea.

Further to these actions, United States Trade Representative (USTR) 2018 Trade Policy Agenda recalled that China is engaged in unreasonable and discriminatory efforts to obtain US technologies and intellectual property.

The report further indicated that the US also challenged India’s ban on the various US agricultural products – noting that India discriminated against the US products in favor of Indian products and the measures as trade restrictive.

After India failed to comply with the WTO recommendations, the United States requested WTO authorization to suspend $450 million in concessions and other obligations with respect to India per year.

USTR also proposed to keep China and India as well as nine other countries on ‘Priority Watch List’ over IP protection. Both the countries have consistently been listed every year since the report’s launch.