JF-17 Kills MiG-21, Where are Tejas?

By: Azhar Azam

On Wednesday, Pakistan’s flying crown JF-17 Thunder shot down two Indian fighter jets in an air combat near the line of control (LOC). Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) admitted that it lost one MiG-21 and the pilot is missing.

The downing of an Indian aircraft jet represents the first-ever KILL of a fighter jet by JF-17 Thunder. Previously, it had shot down an Iranian drone in 2017.

JF-17 Thunder is an advanced, light-weight, and multi-role fighter aircraft, which is a joint masterpiece of Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), Kamra and Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAC), China.

PAC had rolled out first JF-17 prototype aircraft (called FC-1) in May 2003. It made its first flight in August 2003 and was formally presented to nation on 23-March-2007. First PAC natively produced JF-17 aircraft was handed over to Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in November 2009. To date, more than 100 fighter jets of JF-17 (Block I and Block II) have been delivered to PAF.

Pakistan is also quickly moving forward to produce next-generation JF-17 Thunder Block III aircraft, which will be equipped with Chinese-made active electronic scanning array (AESA) radar system.

The dual-seated Block III will also be supported by newer multi-functionality display (MFD), more powerful engine (RD-93MA) to lift the maximum speed to2,500 km/h (>2 Mach), helmet mounted display, upgraded avionics suit and electronic warfare, and built-in air-to-air refueling.

Last year, Pakistan Air Chief had announced that the design of the JF-17 Block III has been finalized. Under Project Azam, PAF is expected to add 28 fighters of these latest variant in 2019. First 2 Block III will be constructed in China and the remaining 26 in Pakistan.

Additionally, PAC has established a new office – Aviation Research, Indigenization & Development (AvRID) to develop fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) to meet the needs of Air Staff Requirements (ASR).

The FGFA team will be responsible for the development of such kind of advanced aircraft while AvRID will ensure the supply of the required technologies and systems. The success of the development of FGFA would entirely end Pakistan’s reliance on foreign suppliers.

So far, Myanmar and Nigeria has signed agreements for the purchase of JF-17s from Pakistan while several other countries including Malaysia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shown keen interests.

The latest JF-17’s hunt would attract new potential aircraft buyers from relatively smaller economies as it is low-cost fighter jet, backed by advanced avionics features and proven killing capabilities.

In comparison, Indian domestic light combat aircraft (LCA) program that began in 1980s hasn’t yet added a single fighter jet in Indian Air Force (IAF) fleet.

More than 35 years after the idea was conceived, it was just this month when Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)’s domestically produced weaponized aircrafts Tejas LCA Mark1 (or Mark1A) got the final operation clearance (FOC). The first prototype of Tejas had flown way back in January 2001.

Even though, HAL has produced the first batch of 20 Tejas Mark-1 but IAF has shown its resentments on the performance of existing Tejas. IAF has ordered HAL for a total of 40 Tejas Mark-1. India is expecting to replace Tejas with the aging fleets of MiG-21s.

In December 2017, IAF had also issued a single vendor tender for purchase of 83 Tejas Mark-1 (or Mark-1A) from HAL but its offer was repeatedly been found non-compliant. India had earmarked funds for this purchase in November 2016.

HAL is also working on an improved version of Tejas, Mark-2. IAF could potentially buy up to 200 fighter jets of Mark-2 variant. But the major problem with Mark-2 is that it is still on the drawing board and could not fly at least for another five years.

As a matter of fact, HAL Tejas has taken a shocking over three and a half decades to reach at current level. On the other hand, JF-17 Thunder has not only gathered operational experience but has also found international buyers as well which makes it more popular.

Moreover, JF-17 is in active service for 11 years and is a battle-proven fighter jet. It has performed commendably during Pakistan army’s military operation Zarb-e-Azb and lately in air combat as well. It was never made to compete with F-16, rather just to replace the aging fleet.

The fact remains had the Tejas even close to good, Indian Air Force would have not been looking for French Rafales and Russian MiG35s. The hard truth is that even after 35 years of development, the Tejas continue to be plagued with problems.

Pakistan: National Command Authority (NCA) and Strategic Plan Division (SPD)

By: Azhar Azam

In February 2000, the National Security Council (NSC) of Pakistan ratified the establishment of National Command Authority (NCA) to frame and control the national policy on nuclear issues.

NCA is chaired by the Prime Minister and comprises apex governmental and military officious as its members. Strategic Plans Division (SPD) is the secretariat of the NCA, which is responsible for the protection of strategic and fissile assets of Pakistan.

Previously known as Combat Development Directorate (CDD), SPD has developed an indigenous, multi-layered, and institutionalized Command and Control structure to safeguard the country’s missile and nuclear arsenal.

Headed by three-star General, DG SPD prevails a dominating authority in Pakistan armed forces and exercises significant role in the research, development, production, and manufacturing of Pakistan’s ballistic and cruise missile program.

Other agencies such as National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM), Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Khan Research Laboratories (KRL), and National Development Complex (NDC) are administrated by SPD.

In 1998, an inexperienced Lt. General (then Brigadier) Kidwai was part of Post-Chagi think tank that was tasked for securing and indoctrinating the Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Four years later, he was elevated to head one of the exalted organizations, SPD.

Lt. General Khalid Kidwai has been the keystone of Pakistan’s missile and nuclear arsenal. Appointed in 2000 as Director General of SPD, he continued to head the organization for unprecedented 14 years.

Probably the longest serving official in history, Gen. Kidwai is one of the most garlanded Generals in Pakistan, who seen off three army chiefs, three presidents, and four prime ministers during his extraordinary career.

A winner of Sword of Honor at Pakistan’s military academy, he is also a 1971 war veteran and prisoner of WAR (POW). He has been conferred the top civil and prestigious military awards by the government of Pakistan.

As DG, Gen. Kidwai commanded a small army at SPD (SPD Force) and ran an unnamed intelligence and counter-intelligence network (different from ISI) as well as ‘conceived, articulated, and executed Pakistan’s nuclear policy and deterrence doctrine into a tangible and nuclear force structure’.

General Kudwai is also the pioneer of civilian Nuclear Energy Program (NEC) and National Space Program (NSP) of Pakistan.

The security branch of SPD has so far produced thousands of rigorously trained and skilled commandos that have graduated in counter-terrorism and handling and dismantling of nuclear armaments to protect the country’s nukes and the activities of its subordinate strategic organizations.

Due to extreme secrecy of its operations, the position at the helm of the Chaklala Garrison’s Strategic Plans Division has been much more consequential to the outsiders, that any other political and military personality in Pakistan. But for all practical reasons, SPD is very much part of Pakistan army.

While talking to David Sanger, Gen. Kidwai said: ‘Please grant to Pakistan that if we can make nuclear weapons and the delivery systems, we can also make them safe. Our security systems are foolproof’.

Gen. Kidwai, when pressed by Americans about the nuclear safety, said that the Americans Shouldn’t offer lectures about nuclear security – not after the US Air Force lost track of some of its own weapons in 2007 for 36 hours.

In 2008, a Bush administration’s official told the Times ‘Every morning, I could see what was happening inside the Soviet nuclear system. I have never had a morning when I could (get) inside Pakistan’s’.

Michael Krepon describes the critical role of General Kidwai:

‘Every nation’s nuclear weapon-related programs have elevated a few individuals into a position of extraordinary authority. Some have remained in the shadows, a few have become national embarrassments, and others have gained public renown. ‘

‘The ‘father’ of US nuclear navy, Admiral Hyman Rickover, had such a high profile and was deemed to be so essential by his supporters on Capitol Hill that his retirement from active duty was postponed until the ripe old age of 81. Pakistan’s closest approximation to Admiral Rickover is…Kidwai.’

In February 2008, Ashley Tellis, Senior Associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South Asia:

‘It is my judgment that Pakistan strategic assets – to include its nuclear devices , its delivery systems, and its stockpile of fissile materials – are fundamentally safe today … Compared to the situation in 1980s and early 1990s, when Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was still relatively vulnerable to a variety of external and internal threats.’

Although Gen. Kidwai was formally retired in 2007 yet he resumed the office through December 2013, getting incredible 12 extensions. He finally passed the baton after General Raheel Sharif appointed Lt. Gen. Zubair Mahmood Hayyat (now General, Chairman JCSC) as new DG to institutionalize the SPD.

Lt. General Sarfraz Sattar is the current Director General of Strategic Plans Division. He has also served as DG Military Intelligence and military attaché to India. Gen. Sattar is one of the top three contenders for DG ISI as well as would be strong contestant for the posts of chief of army staff and chairman joint chiefs of staff committee after the existing Generals retire in 2019.

Hypersonic Weapons to Outdate S-400, Patriot

By: Azhar Azam

The Syrian warzone has provided Russia an endless defense exhibition platform to showcase and boost the export its military equipment. To date, Moscow has succeeded to attract potential buyers for at least one of its advanced weapon system, S-400 Triumf air defense missile system.

Currently S-400 is probably the scariest surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, which is a low-cost substitute to the US Patriot and THAAD systems with a technological superiority. It has a striking range of 400km and it can shoot down up to 80 airborne targets simultaneously. Its radar has a surveillance area of 600km area.

According to the US intelligence assessment, Russia’s S-400 costs around $500 million as compared to Raytheon’s Patriot and Lockheed Martin’s THAAD systems that rates at more than $1 billion and approximately $3 billion respectively.

Although in a rare success for the US, UAE awarded the largest single contract to Raytheon at IDEX 2019 for supply of Patriot missile systems but the contract was against the expectations of Acting Secretary Defense Patrick Shanahan who predicted for THAAD instead.

In addition, Missile Defense Review 2019 asserted that Patriot has a proven combat record but the US army’s announcement to buy limited number of Israeli Iron Dome weapon systems to protect its soldiers coins its distrust over the performance of Patriot.

Unlike, the United States – Russia’s willingness to supply and share the technology, to some extent, of S-400 to almost any country in the world gives it an enormous push to market its defense nugget and allure the buyers.

As of now – China, India, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE have either purchased or are in negotiations with Russia for buying the redoubtable S-400 systems, while several other countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Vietnam have shown their intentions in acquiring these systems.

In doing do, Russia is eroding a number of US interests – stealing the strongest US defense exports markets; building stronger ties with the US closest allies; expanding its influence in the emerging economies; and ripping the US CAATSA that imposes sanctions on Moscow and the countries dealing with it.

By allowing Russia to play on its historically ‘home grounds’, Washington is only abetting Moscow to take its regional partners as the US officials warned Turkey that Ankara’s purchase of S-400 could jeopardize the transfer of F-35 new generation fighter jets and possible could end up in US sanctions.

But the NATO-member is committed to go on with the purchase of two regiments of S-400 at the cost of $3.4 billion from Russia. The delivery of first batch of S-400 is expected in July and will be activated in October.

Vice President Mike Pence said in his speech at Munich Security Conference ‘We will not stand idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries. We cannot ensure the defense of the West if our allies grow dependent on the East’.

The US also offered Turkey its Patriot defense systems but Ankara declined the offer, stating it cannot accept the US Patriot as it stands. However, Ankara has not absolutely ruled out the acquisition of Patriot, saying that the negotiations on cost, technology transfer, and delivery period are still underway.

Although India locked a special US waiver for the purchase of five regiments of S-400 for $5.4 billion from Russia but it is still fretting over the potential US sanctions. The so-called US Major Defense Partner (MDP) is working out a Rupee-Ruble payment transfer with Moscow to bypass US sanctions on Russia.

Speaking to the journalists at Aero India 2019, Anatoly Punchuk deputy director of Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation signaled at such a payment transaction saying ‘Dollar is no longer the universal currency for trade in defense’.

Russia has also offered MiG Aircraft Corporation’s MiG-35 with manufacturing facility in India. The company official claimed that MiG35 light-class fighter jet is unrivaled and also it would cost 20% less than similar foreign models. In April 2018, India Air Force had issued RFI for the purchase of 110 fighter jets to Rafale.

So far, China is the only country that has been delivered S-400 under $3 billion contract for an undisclosed quantity that was signed in 2015. Beijing bought the system after several tests and trails. Russian media reported that in October 2018, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) shot down a ‘simulated ballistic target’ almost 250km away and travelling at supersonic speed of 3km/second.

The question arises why China is buying S-400 while it has its own air defense missile system such as HQ-19 or Red Flag 19 (a significant upgradation of HQ-9) that is capable of intercepting satellite and ballistic missiles from a stupendous range of 3,000-4,000km and features with kinetic kill vehicle.

China has different thoughts from that of the Russians and the Americans, which means that Beijing is focusing more on developing of the defense armaments of the future – hypersonic weapons – rather than the staging air defense missile systems.

Hypersonic weapons can travel more than five times the speed of time (Mach 5) – 1.6km or around 1mile per second. Given that the modern fighter jet and cruise missile can fly at a supersonic speed of Mach 2 or Mach 3, hypersonic missile can bring any of them down easily.

Last year, the chief of US Strategic Command admitted briefed the Senate Armed Services Committee ‘We don’t have any defense that could deny the employment of such a weapon (hypersonic) against us’. ‘Both Russia and China are aggressively pursuing hypersonic capabilities.’

The successful development of hypersonic weapons will almost completely eliminate the effectiveness of S-400, Patriot, THAAD, and other air defense missile systems – which will make all of them obsolete and waste of money. By the time, any countries that will take S-400 deliveries in 3 to 5 years will be strained to update their defense to cope with a hypersonic era.

It is pertinent to note that S-400 is considered the bottom of Russian military industry so China seems to showing lesser interests in Russian military products, therefore remains disinclined to invest in technologies, which are bound to be outdated in near future.

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia: Potentially A New Strategic and Economic Bloc

By: Azhar Azam

Saudi Arabia has been one of the closest US ally for years but some recent tiffs seemingly to have impaired the bilateral relations – particularly after US excessive regulations on nuclear technology transfer, apparently to protect the interests of its peerless partner, Israel.

Riyadh does not have nuclear bomb and it is also a signatory to NPT. It however established a nuclear research center, King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE), in 2010 to meet the country’s energy and water needs.

In an interview with a US television on 15-March-2018, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) said that his country isn’t interested in acquiring nuclear bomb but if Tehran develops such a weapon, Riyadh will follow the suit as soon as possible.

Recently, US Deputy Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said that the US would not help Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear technology without guarantees that it would only be used for civilian purposes – adding ‘as you know, this technology has a dual use and in the wrong hands, it becomes dangerous, dangerous world’.

Former intelligence services chief and senior Saudi diplomat Prince Turki Al Faisal strongly reacted to Brouillette comments, voicing that Saudi Arabia has more options for nuclear technology other than the United States.

Ex-ambassador to the US and UK uttered that the energy market is open. ‘We have France. We have Russia. We have China. We have our friends in Pakistan and in other places as well, so if they want to remove themselves from that market, well, that's up to them.’

In a recent interview, the prince also decried Prime Minister Netanyahu for deceiving Israeli public by making them to believe that Palestine is dead issue. ‘We don’t need Mr. Netanyahu to tell us the dangers that Iran poses. We see it on our grounds’, he added.

Saudi diplomatic assaults comes at a time when there is a growing conviction in Washington defense circles that Saudi Arabia is pursuing a missile program with the help of China and Pakistan – cuing a major Saudi policy shift towards the East and hinting at a potential divergence from the US.

Speaking to the CNBC, a former Pentagon official Michael Rubin indicted that the ‘whiplash policy changes in Washington have had negative impact in Riyadh’. ‘Saudi authorities are no longer going to be constrained by White House whispers. The Saudis are demonstrating that they can take matters into their own hands.’

Saudi Arabia does not possess weapons of mass destruction either. It however bought limited quantity of ballistic missiles of Chinese-origin in 1988. More recently, it is in discussion to procure medium-range missiles from Pakistan. These missiles are capable to carry nuclear warheads but no evidence was found that the Saudis were interested in nuclear option.

Saudi Arabia has always been ‘a friend in deed’ for Pakistan. It is widely believed that Riyadh has bankrolled the Pakistan nuclear program. The Kingdom is the home of 2.5 million Pakistani expatriates and is also the largest source of foreign remittances in Pakistan.

Pakistan has a long history of US sanctions, economic fragility, and balance of payments crisis. After sanctions were slapped on Pakistan following nuclear tests in May 1998, Riyadh immediately so came to rescue Pakistan’s vulnerable economic conditions and provided 50,000 barrels/day of oil free of cost.

It provided $1.5 billion in 2015 to shore up Pakistan foreign exchange reserves and again in 2018, Saudi Arabia was the first country to have pledged $3 billion (already received) on concessionary terms. The latest investments worth of $20 billion are the other paradigms of unique, deep, and durable brotherly relations between the two countries.

Unlike the United States, Riyadh has never grilled Pakistan by asking ‘you’re with us or against us’ but in return to its recurrent support for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia expects Islamabad to protect the Kingdom in case it faces any threat to its national security. Pakistan has unvaryingly responded to the Kingdom requests by stationing its troops for the Kingdom’s security.

As Riyadh is tailing an indigenous missile and defense program, Islamabad can be instrumental to help Saudi Arabia in realizing in its ambitious plan, taking advantage from its strong military ties with time-tested friend, Beijing – and at a time, when Saudi Arabia is battered by Washington’s erratic policies.

China is already the largest trade partner of Saudi Arabia since 2013. In 2017, the bilateral trade between the two reached about $50 billion. Beijing has also welcomed Riyadh announcement to join CPEC, a vital economic and strategic project that will have significant consequences in the region.

In October, Trump warned Saudi Arabia’s King Salman who would not last in power ‘for two weeks’ without the backing of the US military. ‘King - we’re protecting you - you might not be there for two weeks without us - you have to pay for your military.’

Taking all the protective measures, Riyadh is quickly in quest to find new partners particularly in defense sector. It has much to gain from Pakistan’s defense experiences after the South Asian country was abandoned by the US.

With Chinese help, Pakistan has succeeded to expand its military industrial base – which is also a core Saudi initiative under Vision 2030. This also leaves China with an enormous opportunity to gain greater access to substantial Middle East defense market, capitalizing the deep-routed Saudi-Pak ties.

Saudi Arabia is repairing its ties with Russia too. In October 2017, King Salman made a first-ever monarch’s visit to Moscow and signed preliminary agreements for buying S-400 air missile defense systems, Kornet anti-tank missile systems, and other defense equipment.

The historic King’s visit could have been facilitated by Pakistan after Islamabad decided to mend its bonds with Moscow over US military sanctions. In June 2015, Pakistan’s then army chief General Raheel Sharif visited Kremlin to break the ice in Pak-Russo relations.

All the developments in South, East, and Middle East will have long-term global impacts since these regions contain the most emerging markets of the world so the future of economic growth of all countries sits here.

And in any case and under the given geo-strategic circumstances, the world could soon witness potentially a new Pak-Saudi-Sino-Russo strategic and economic bloc.

US-Indo Hybrid War against Sino-Pakistan

By: Azhar Azam

When it comes to economic breadth and technology innovation, the Unites States is clearly the winner. The incredible US historical credentials across all disciplines have allowed it to dominate the world. It is instilled in the Americans’ DNA that they are a nation, which is hard to match and impossible to beat.

If there is one nation-state that has somewhat challenged the decades-old global US dominance, it is China. Over the past twenty years, China has grown into a substantial international economic powerhouse. It has also made great strides towards military and technology advancements.

But being the world’s largest populated country and the biggest market, China needs a consistent and strong economic growth to remain stable. In enactment to its economic stability, China is pursuing a grand plan – Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative (BRI).

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a blend of land-based ‘Silk Road Economic BELT’ and oceangoing ‘Maritime Silk ROAD’, which focuses primarily the connectivity and cooperation between China and the rest of Eurasia.

The initiative aims to strengthen infrastructure, trade, and investment links between China and 65 other countries that collectively account for more than 30% of the global GDP, 62% of the population, and 75% of the unknown energy reserves.

On land, B&R centers to develop China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors and at sea, the initiative plans to build a smooth, secure, and efficient trade route by connecting the major seaports through China-Pakistan and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridors.

As of 2018, China has effectively promoted China-Pakistan and China-Russia-Mongolia economic corridors and has also succeeded to make, China-Laos Railway, Sino-Thai Railway, Yawan High-Speed Railway and the Hungarian Railway, China-Belarus Industrial Park, and Egyptian Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, the part of B&R initiative.

In addition, the model of industrial cooperation, the port of Hambantuta in Sri Lanka, and the port of Piraeus in Greece are running smoothly whereas Central Europe has accumulated more than 10,000 trains to reach 43 cities in 15 European countries.

The trade volume between China and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) increased 16.3% to about $1.3 trillion in 2018, said Belt and Road Portal citing Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

China’s exports to BRI countries rose 10.9% to $704.7 billion as compared to 23.9% growth in imports of $563.1 billion from them.

Last year, the country’s firms invested $15.6 billion in non-financial sectors of B&R countries – an increase of 8.9% – while the country received 11.9% more investments worth of $6.1 billion from them.

CPEC is the landmark project of Belt and Road, which has attracted the largest investment in the annals of history of Pakistan. It is also the largest-ever Chinese foreign investment in any single foreign country.

The CPEC has a strategic importance as well. The Chinese are not just offering to build much-needed infrastructure but also make Pakistan a key partner in its grand economic and strategic ambitions, the guardian wrote at signing of the CPEC.

United States considers Belt and Road a peril to its global supremacy, through which China is trying to strengthen its economic and strategic footprints worldwide and CPEC provides the terrain to achieve China’s global dominance ambitions.

So, in order to contain China’s rising influence and to ensure its hegemony – the US once again is relying on Pakistan but to its infuriation, both China and Pakistan share historic rapport. On the other hand, Pakistan is not in a position to help the US as the $60 billion CPEC offers enormous potential to boost Pakistan’s deteriorating economy, reducing poverty, spread benefits widely, and help those likely to be affected by the new trade route, says ADP report.

As the likelihoods of conventional warfare dry up in modern days; the United States is now deeply converging onto another type of feud – Hybrid War – to impede China’s blooming marches, the fulcrum of which is CPEC, Gwadar in Balochistan, or the land of Pakistan.

Hybrid War is used as a catchphrase to describe a non-linear or non-traditional warfare which strategizes to destabilize an opponent by clandestine maneuvers such as political disruption, economic subversion, propaganda campaigns (including social media), and cyber assaults in addition to employing conventional warfare tactics.

Delving the depths of cloak-and-dagger activities, nearly all components of hybrid war are deployed toward Pakistan on the back of its increasing geopolitical importance – which serves as the ‘Zipper’ to the Eurasian integration. The ultimate target explicitly is the Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile – the cornerstone of its national security.

Several external factors, with the help of some domestic political and social elements, are running propaganda campaigns to dent core national security interests of Pakistan. People, especially from the deprived zones, are incited against the national security institutions, hoping to harvest a political-military conflict.

Economic cataclysm is also an important component of irregular warfare which has unfortunately miffed the Pakistan’s economy. The combination of these internal and external elements has purposely restrained the country’s economy to grow.

The menaces of outspread corruption, bad governance, illegal money transfers, nepotism, and marginalization of youth have not only substantially paled the Pakistan’s economy but also relayed US and UK an opportunity to place Pakistan on FATF grey-list.

On the global front, Pakistan’s frenemy – the United Sates – has also beckoned to maim the vulnerable economy by influencing IMF, in case Pakistan decides to solicit a bail-out package from international financial institution.

Unarguably India and Pakistan are inevitable foes but as the New Cold War begins in the backcloth of Sino-US trade conflicts and strategic disputes in South China Sea; Pakistan is taking the toll for championing its unprecedented friend, China.

The devised Indo-US strategic partnership is the secret endeavor or the hybrid assault to contain Pakistan by fanning ‘ethno-regional identity conflicts’ – supported by Indian-backed terrorist activities in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan and terrorist attacks from Afghanistan – alongside developing India into a military might against China.

The United States had also offered India its Patriot air defense system (PAC-3) to shift the balance of power in favor of India as the system is capable of intercepting enemy’s tactical and cruise missiles and aircrafts.

However India annoyed the United States by going for five-battery Russian S-400 Triumf for $6 billion, which embraces the same capability as does the PAC-3. Both the American and Russian air defense systems carry high price tags.

India will be deploying these systems alongside China and Pakistan borders. Although it will stance serious intimidations to Pakistan’s national security, however Pakistan’s all-weather ally, China, has already bought S-400 which can deployed to shield either of them.

Israel is also accompanying India to posing hybrid threats and causing unrest in Pakistan. India is also the largest Israeli arms buyer. With the help of Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAS), India is developing short-range and long-range surface-to-air (SAM) missile systems (SAM).

Azriel Bermant – research fellow at National Security Studies, Tel Aviv – opined that Pakistan might be a real nuclear threat to the United States and Israel, instead of Iran and North Korea. The republication of his adversarial analysis could just be a tip of the iceberg, steering at hybrid war on Pakistan.

While the activities of the US navy in South China Sea drive to repress China’s influence, Indian naval presence on Chabahar port in Iran and Duqm port in Oman can target China, Pakistan, and their central CPEC project.

It is due to this Indo-US strategic naval fusion which has goaded China and Pakistan to shore up their naval collaboration and expand maritime surveillance and security in the Indian Ocean to deal with the US proxy, India.

In the newest concept of hybrid war, the United States and India are manipulating the mainstream media to impair the international reputation of Pakistan; implementing a series of disinformation programs, hypothetical analysis, and odious Op-eds.

They oscillate the western minds that Pakistan is a land of terrorism and poverty to prevent the country’s potential CPEC linked growth – awaited by connecting the economies of European Union, China, Iran, and SAARC.

The media onslaught on Pakistan army and its intelligence service – ISI – is the key gambit of Indo-US hybrid ‘shelling’ on Pakistan to malevolently obscure the country’s remarkable achievements in war on terror.

It is evident that the United States has distinctly reformed its regional strategy to live off India against China and Pakistan but the christened superficial alliance is doomed to collapse because of India’s inability to play a key role in the mixt geopolitics.

Creative Industries to Creative Economy: Billions of Revenues & Millions of Jobs

By: Azhar Azam

The world is shifting from an age of information to an age of creativity and imagination – ideas, knowledge, skills, and the ability to seize new opportunities.

45% of the jobs in future will change. By 2030, there will be shortage of 85 million jobs in the creative industries that is currently valued at $2.5 trillion and will expand to $8.5 trillion by 2030 – the speakers said in the ongoing World Government Summit.

The term creative industries is a blend of oldest cultural and modern digital technologies – from books, theater, dance, film, and visual arts to design, fashion, performing arts, publishing, computer services, and television.

Since it has strong cultural roots, creative industries are dubbed as cultural and creative industries (CCI). It is a subset of creative economy that deals with the interface of between economy, culture, technology, and social aspects.

A joint study by CISAC and UNESCO in December 2015 estimated that the revenues of CCI ($2,250bn) exceed those of telecom services ($1,570bn) and surpass India’s GDP ($1,900bn). Television ($477bn), visual arts ($391bn), and newspapers and magazines ($354bn) were the top-3 earners.

In addition, with 29.5 million jobs worldwide – CCI was employing about 1% of the world‘s active population by 2015. Visual arts (6.73mn), books (3.67mn), and music (3.98mn) were the top three employers.

Driven by large population and housing the global CCI leaders such as Tencent, CCTV, and Yomiuri Shimbun – Asia Pacific (APAC) generated 33% of global revenues ($743bn) and provided 12.7 million jobs (43% of CCI jobs worldwide).

According to the second UNCTAD Creative Economy Outlook and Country Profile report 2018 – the size of global market for creative good was expanded substantially from $208 billion in 2002 to $509 billion in 2015.

Design – interior design, fashion articles, jewelry, glassware, toys, and architecture materials – continues to be the largest subgroup in the global market of creative industries. The global exports of design goods have almost tripled from $118 billion in 2002 to$318 billion in 2015.

In Visual Arts, value inherently lies in the exclusivity and originality of an artwork. They comprise antiques, paintings, sculpture, photography as well as carvings, engravings, and ornaments. Visual Arts together with Art Crafts has the 2nd largest 45% share in creative goods exports.

Creative economy is now witnessing a new trend – from production of creative goods to the delivery of creative services such as charges for use of intellectual property and licenses for the use of outcomes of R&D, to reproduce and/or redistribute computer softwares and audio visual and related products etc. This aligns with a global shift towards services as industrial and agricultural outputs are declining worldwide.

UNCTAD report concludes that the creative economy can catalyze change, in which, trade in creative goods and services is a powerful, growing economic force – as its contribution to GDP and share of global trade is only likely to increase because of its ability to intersect with the digital and sharing economy and e-commerce.

China is leading the global creative economy. It is the world’s largest exporter of creative goods and is also expanding its presence in the global creative services. In 2015, Chinese creative goods exports ($168.5bn) were four times than that of the United States. It also had the world’s highest creative trade surplus of $154 billion.

Nearly 10 of the top-50 Chinese brands overseas are software and gaming. TikTok, a Chinese media app for creating and sharing short videos, is going popular around the world. Its advertising can be seen anywhere in London.

Creative jobs are future-proof jobs with 87% of those are at low or no risk of automation. There are more than 2 million jobs in UK creative industries, an increase of 28.6% since 2011. It added some 80,000 creative jobs in UK in 2017.

Of the creative workers in UK creative industries – 35% are self-employed, while freelancers make a sizeable portion of self-employed workforce in UK creative industries. The Gross Value Added (GVA) of the UK creative industries was £101.1 billion – £11.5 million per hour.

The UK creative industries exported £27 billion of services in 2016 – IT Software and Games being the largest, £13 billion. UK exports of creative services account for 11% of all UK services exports.

There are individual contributors to creative economies as well. Re: Creation’s economic research on America’s New Creative Economy found that in 2017, nearly 17 million Americans earned $6.8 billion by posting their personal creations on 9 social media platforms.

YouTube ($4.0bn) was by far the largest social media platform for the US creators’ earnings – a 21.1% increase as compared to 2016’s earnings. The number of US creators on YouTube was also increased by 81.4% to nearly 2.2 million in 2017.

With $1.3 billion, Etsy was the second-largest social media earnings platform for the US creators. Instagram posted the highest growth (49.5%) in the US creators’ earnings in 2017, followed by Twitch (30.0%).

Why Trump will be Pressed to Seek Chinese Assistance?

By: Azhar Azam

In May 2018, Trump alleged his predecessors for costing the United States (from Bush-I to present) 55,000 factories; 6-million manufacturing jobs; and accumulating trade deficits of more than $12 trillion.

He further said in then-tweet ‘Last year, we had a Trade Deficit of almost 800 Billion Dollars. Bad Policies & Leadership. Must WIN again!’But he LOST in his second year as well and that too by a widest margin.

In the first eleven months of 2018 (January to December), the US trade deficit rumbled to $800.1 billion – with an increase of $65.9 billion and $113.6 billion as compared to 2017 and 2016 respectively.

With December data is yet to be released – the US trade deficit is poised to comfortably transcend last year deficit of $807.5 billion. And terribly for Trump, the US trade deficit with China is more depressing.

Trump has been slating China for ripping the United States in trade and stealing thousands of US manufacturing jobs ever since it entered into the WTO – eventually slapping substantial tariffs on several products from East-Asian nation

In his hardnosed speeches, he frequently professed China as an economic boogeyman and currency manipulator who is competing unfairly with the US and other countries to upturn its exports at the cost of US manufacturing jobs.

He incessantly accused China, Mexico, and some other countries for ‘greatest jobs theft’ in the history of the America – proclaiming that US companies moved jobs to these countries and vowed to bring them back into the US.

BUT to date, the so-called Trump’s rhetoric and punitive actions toward China have produced nothing except sustaining US the-largest ever trade deficits for the two consecutive years of his tenure.

After framing a record trade deficit of $375.6 billion with China in 2017 – the US endured another overwhelming trade deficit of $383.3 billion with People’s Republic between January-November, according to the US Commerce Department.

Although the US imports from China fell by $1.6 billion in November as compared to the same month in the last year but at the same time, its exports to China have also been plummeted by $4.1 billion for November y-o-y.

With an average trade deficit of $34.8 billion per month, the US trade deficit with China is set to significantly exceed $400 billion mark. The mounting trade gaps echoes that against every $1 of goods exported to China, the US imported over $4.4 of goods from China – more than 2017 $1:$3.9 ratio.

Manufacturing jobs – the crux of Trump’s campaign – have however increased by 454,000 during the first two years of Trump administration. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, some 190,000 manufacturing jobs were added in 2017 and another record 264,000 jobs were created in 2018.

The United States heavily relies on manufacturing exports. According to IMF, the US manufactures exports accounted for about 80% of its total merchandize exports in 2006 however with the China’s rise, the US manufactures exports shrank to nearly 62% in 2016.

Albeit creation of thousands of manufacturing jobs, in the first eleven months of 2018 – the US imports of manufactured goods increased by $155.9 billion to $2,004.1 billion – partially offset by increase in manufacturers exports to $62.9 billion.

As the US trade deficit with China and its manufacturing exports keeps on mounting despite all bombastic psychological and administrative strokes – Trump might now be forced to soften his antagonistic stance toward China, seeking Chinese succor to earn him a consolation WIN in trade war.

China, Russia Dine American Allies

By: Azhar Azam

Trump roasted US intelligence – calling it extremely passive and naïve – on its remarks on dangers from Iran and advised ‘perhaps intelligence should go back to school’.

Earlier in the week, a US intelligence team appeared before Senate and briefed the panel on global threats to the US national security – including an assessment that Iran is not currently developing any materials that can produce a nuclear device.

Mr. Twitter quickly backtracked from his initial punitive rile on the US intelligence after meeting spy chiefs in his Oval office – putting all loads on media for mischaracterizing the Senate Hearing, ending up at ‘I value our intelligence community’.

But he remained unvoiced on the most critical comments by Daniel Coats, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), on expanding and diversifying threats to US national security from China and Russia in coming years.

Worldwide Threat Assessment warned that China and Russia seek to expand their global influence particularly in East Asia and Middle East. They are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s and their relationship is likely to strengthen.

US IS LOSING THE TRUST OF ITS ALLIES

Though the report gave the traditional assessment that the US is facing a number of threats to its security from varied nations, mainly from China and Russia – however the most derogatory note in the testimony was that the US is losing the trust of its allies.

It said that some US allies and partners are seeking greater independence from Washington in response to their perceptions of changing US policies on security and trade and becoming more open to new bilateral and multilateral partnerships.

In implementation of his ‘America First’ mantra, Trump is extensively pursuing to improve US economy by withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Syria; negotiating nuclear deal with North Korea; limiting US role in the protection of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and other gulf states; and build a trilateral alliance with Japan and South Korea in East Asia against Chinese growing influence.

As a result and to the ire of the US military, some of the US close allies in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and YPG in Syria – are warming towards China and Russia for their national security rudiments.

SAUDI ARABIA, UAE, QATAR, AND OTHER GULF STATES

In October 2017, Saudi King Salman made a first-ever Kingdom’s monarch visit to Moscow and signed preliminary agreements to buy S-400 air missile defense systems, Kornet anti-tank missile systems, and multiple rocket launchers.

If Saudi Arabia proceeds with S-400 with Russia, it would be major blow to the $15 billion potential deal with US Lockheed Martin’s THAAD missile systems. Both sides have also agreed to cooperate in nuclear energy, agriculture, information technology, trade, investments, and social developments.

Since December 2017, Saudi Arabia has opted to abstain from UN resolution on Russian military intervention in Ukraine. In exchange, Putin declined to criticize the Kingdom on Khashoggi killing stating ‘cannot start deteriorating relations’ with Saudi Arabia.

Also, China has been the largest trade partner of Saudi Arabia since 2013 while Saudi Arabia has been the largest crude oil supplier to China from 2000 to 2015, for 16 consecutive years. In 2017, bilateral trade reached about $50 billion between the two countries.

After the King’s visit to China in March 2017, China and Saudi Arabia signed multiple cooperation agreements worth of $65 billion. Just recently, Saudi Arabia became the first country to join China’s Belt and Road project.

Xi Jinping’s visit in mid-July 2018 bolstered ties between China and UAE. Trade between the two countries valued at $55 billion in 2017 whereas China’s investments in UAE reached $9.1 billion by 2017.

Qatar stepped in to rescue Russian Rosneft after it was hit hard by the US sanctions over Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and bought 18.93% stakes of Rosneft for $12.2 billion. Qatar Emir also paid 2-day visit to China on January 30 and signed various MOUs.

INDIA IS COMPLETELY ISOLATED FROM AFGHAN PEACE PROCESS

India entered into the Afghanistan fray only to undermine Pakistani interests and influence. In order to seeking a greater role in the region, India abandoned its decades-old ally, Russia, to embrace the United States.

But the US-Taliban peace dialogue and Trump’s surprise announcement to withdraw troops partially from Afghanistan drove India into clutter. It is much frustrating for India that all the stakeholders in Afghanistan have ignored to count on its views. Resultantly, India is completely isolated from Afghanistan conflict resolution.

JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA

Amid US-China trade tensions – the historically strained relations between China and Japan have significantly improved as Sino-Nippon agreed on everything from currency swaps to ocean rescue, playing down the disagreements. In October 2018, Abe became the first Japanese prime minister to visit Beijing in seven years.

In August 2018, Trump complained that the United States is subsidizing US troops in South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. As the five-year deal on cost-sharing between South Korea and the United States expired in 2018 – the US has demanded 50% increase (to $1.2 billion) to cover the expenses of its military base in the country.

A South Korean lawmaker strongly reacted to the US demand, summoning it ‘sudden, unacceptable’ proposal. If the rift sustained and the US decides to withdraw its troops, South Korea, as well, could align towards China and Russia to protect its security needs.

The other problem US is facing that it wants to establish a trilateral block with South Korea and Japan to counter China. But the tensed relations between South Korea and Japan are the core hitch to the US strategic interests in East Asia.

United States has long hoped that the two countries could sort out their conflicts and assist the US in containing China’s expansion plans through trade. Nonetheless, the ties between South Korea and Japan have repeatedly crawled from one to another.

While the US fails to forge a partnership with South Korea, interestingly a counter-alliance, Sino-Korean-Japanese is evolving. A setback to the US hopes, on December 6 and 7 – China, South Korea, and Japan held fourteenth round of negotiations on free trade agreement (FTA).

DECLINING AMERICANS’ SUPPORT FOR TRUMP

Although most of the Americans shouldered Trump into the White House over his skepticism on the US international alliances and unilaterally withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Paris Agreement, and Iran nuclear deal – but they are now recoiling their support for Trump on trifling or culminating US engagements internationally.

In a poll conducted by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs in October 2018 – 70 percent of the Americans said that the United States should take an active part in the world affairs – 7 percentage points increase from 2017’s survey.

An overwhelming majority of 91% respondents said that it is more effective for the United States to work with allies and other countries to achieve the US foreign policy objectives. Only 8% favored that the US should tackle this at its own.

US INTELLIGENCE IS DEAD RIGHT!

In the backdrop of the ripening global and regional dynamics – the US intelligence is dead right when it perceives that China and Russia are steadily increasing their global influence, particularly in East Asia and Middle East.

The US intelligence did not falter either, while citing that many of the key US allies are tracking more reliable partners in the form of China and Russia over changing US policies. China and Russia, on the other hand, are quickly cashing on the US-bred vacuum.

Undoubtedly, the US military perceives substantial threats to the United States interests from the emergence of China and Russia as the rising global powers – so it does not endorse Trump policy to trim the US involvement in the global affairs.