Hong Kong people can tell right from wrong

By: Azhar Azam

The leaders of Group of Seven (G7) countries in Biarritz, France delivered a contentious statement about Hong Kong on August 26. “The G7 reaffirms the existence and importance of the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 on Hong Kong and calls for violence to be avoided,” the short reference said.

On Tuesday, China strongly hit back at the G7 summit declaration about Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) and reiterated that the foreign countries must not interfere in Chinese internal matters – which have “seriously influenced Hong Kong’s social order, economic image, and its international image.”

Violence only added to HK’s economic pinch

Beijing’s resolute opposition to the testimonial by the alliance of advanced economies is candid and genuine. Since early June, the outbreak of the radical protests in Hong Kong has greatly slowed down the region’s social and economic growth apart from tarnishing its image as one of the most important global financial hubs.

Partnered with foreign interference, the violence and riots in HKSAR have critically smashed its goods trade as the region’s exports plummeted 5.7 percent to about 43.2 billion U.S. dollars in July as compared to last year while the imports also dived 8.7 percent to nearly 47.2 billion U.S. dollars for the month.

The exports and imports of HKSAR had plunged by 9 percent and 7.5 percent respectively in June too.

For the July to June period, the trade deficit of Chinese autonomous territory dashed to 276.8 billion Hong Kong dollars as the seven-month exports dropped by 3.9 percent year over year and imports also declined by 5.1 percent.

While HKSAR is heavily reliant on foreign investment, the suspension of events and investments, even the withdrawal of some of them, by overseas companies are likely to add to the region’s economic pinch in the third quarter of 2019.

As the cancellation of bookings and reservations in Hong Kong’s biggest hotels are expected to negatively impact the tourism sector, the real estate market is writhing as well. The latest HKSAR data shows that monthly residential building unit sales have dropped by more than 43 percent to a four-month low of just 4,627 in June and by another 24.6 percent in July on a year on year basis.

The enormous losses on account of the city’s economy would be mostly borne by the residents of Hong Kong, including the families of the radical demonstrators who have been disrupting the territory on the signals of their alien handlers.

Besides, the continuation of economic tiredness would constraint the HKSAR government’s ability to spend heavily on the social sector, which would mean a significant and upfront loss to the job survival and new employment opportunities for the local population.

The economic turmoil once deepens further, would be hard to control as the foreign investors would be pushed to divert their investments to other countries, creating more unemployment in the state.

It could be an ideal scenario for the detractors but, at least, not for the people of Hong Kong whose fortune is firmly knotted with overseas investments.

Decriers of China, which are seeing Hong Kong as a bedlam state to implant their veiled bellicose strategies, have no empathies for the ordinary Hong Kongers. Their definite goal is to weaken China economically and the violent protesters are providing them a gold-plated opening.

They must recall that the economy of Hong Kong is interdependent with China as a whole so if Beijing struggles, the economies of the people in Hong Kong will not sustain as well. So by trying to restore peace and stability in Hong Kong, China is battling out for the welfare, affluence, and future of the people.

Hong Kong people can tell right from wrong

There are growing signs of Hong Kong trying to return to normalcy, stability, and peace. Last week, people from across the disciplines flashed to the roads of Hong Kong and called to an end of the unlawful assemblies and backed Beijing for bringing peace and stability in the state.

When talking to China Global Television Network (CGTN), many local Hong Kong residents expressed their profound disagreement with the violence of some recent protests and voiced their support for the HKSAR government.

One of the pro-peace activists Peter Bently who lived most of his life in China said "I simply want to ask why these people who are violent protesters even those are peaceful protesters, why they are afraid of China. I love Hong Kong, I love China."

Hence, an outsized number of the Hong Kongers has fathomed the greater plan and are now denouncing the frenzied rallies. They have identified that these sorts of radical actions won’t serve their and Hong Kong’s interests. So they are now determined not to stick at homes and to take to the streets to protect themselves, their region, and their generations.

The detrimental efforts of the external forces show that they have botched to stir confrontation between the people of Hong Kong and the Chinese national government. Ordinary Hong Kong people have the wisdom to distinguish between China’s core interests and the U.S.’ dirty schemes. People caring about Hong Kong have the confidence that the city will eventually return to stability and Washington’s attempts will only end in vain.

*This is one of my opinion pieces that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-08-28/Hong-Kong-people-can-tell-right-from-wrong-JwGrVRsZC8/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0A6vHNGCGxDM22aEgADjMTvWnr9TDrumaNAkjJrOIAYQ6o5hKFGoGv7h8

Hong Kong residents should prevent a 'point of no return'

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-08-23/Hong-Kong-residents-should-prevent-a-point-of-no-return--Jo60hOfzpu/index.html

On August 17, as many as 476,000 people rushed to the streets of Hong Kong with their national flag to denounce violence and to support peace in the Chinese Special Administrative Region (SAR) and the constitutional principle of “One Country, Two Systems.”

The massive “Oppose Violence, Save Hong Kong” rally that took place near Hong Kong Legislative Council Complex went unnoticed in the Western media as it didn’t gratify their cryptic objectives and lacked the “spices”, they needed to deface China’s image.

For distractors, things were sprinting meticulously as soon as the violent demonstrators had choked the autonomous region with their subversive acts of storming into and wrecking the statutory headquarters, marring its walls with graffiti, and hoisting foreign flags.

But the pro-peace protestors’ call to return Hong Kong back to normalcy, tranquility, and stability muted, rather stunned, the hawkish elements of the international media that were anticipating the tensions and conflict to escalate in the territory.

The sensible Hongkongers have a different take on China as they believe that Hong Kong is their very own region and China is their very own country. They realize that if the situation degrades further, it could disrupt the society and could additionally affect the livelihoods of many people of Hong Kong.

Peace-supporters envisions the basic law of “One Country, Two Systems” as a key substance to Hong Kong’s economic growth that has pushed its trade to GDP ratio from 233% in 1997 to 376% in 2018, enabled the Mainland to become Hong Kong’s largest trading partner, and drove China as the largest domestic export market of Hong Kong, accounting for more than 44% of its total domestic exports.

The Mainland is Hong Kong’s second largest source of inward direct investment as well. At the end of 2017, investment from the Mainland accounted for about 25.5% or about $497 billion of the total stock of region’s inward direct investment. As a total 197 Chinese companies had their regional headquarters and another 255 companies had set up their regional offices in Hong Kong, the Mainland has played decisive role in providing job opportunities and improving the well-being of Hong Kong residents.

Nevertheless, the defiance of the violent marchers could negatively impact the region’s status as one of the most important global financial hubs and could also concede its leadership standing in the world. As Hong Kong enjoys greater degree of autonomy since China took its control from British 150-year colonial rule in 1997, the acts of infidelity such as waiving foreign flags and slurring national emblems could elicit chaos and instability.

China should be given credit for showing a greater restraint on these perfidious events which otherwise could have been reproved by strong military crackdown. While the radical protestors are testing China’s forbearance, the Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned “The situation in Hong Kong has been deteriorating, with the interference of outside powers” and that the dissenters have challenged the bottom lines of law, morality, and the fundamental paradigm of “One Country, Two Systems.”

The radical protestors should pay heed to Wang’s alert “any responsible government and any society rules by law would not sit by and tolerate this” and must circumvent to play in the hands of foreign interveners. People of Hong Kong need to understand the sensitivity of the issue. The sole objective of the meddling foreign countries is to hurt China and the well-being or security of the people in Hong Kong nowhere sits in their veiled agendas.

From Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria to Libya and parts of Africa, the foreign intervention has only brought increased casualties, human sufferings, economic breakdowns, and frightful devastations. International coalitions initially scooped the hopes of these nations in the name of democracy and freedom of expression and latter faded away. It is only the local inhabitants which are thoroughly exposed to the threats of lives and risks of economic survivals.

Now, the US and British led alliance is trying to unbolt a new front against China by covertly intervening and flaring the protests in Hong Kong. Their shared goal is to spike unrest in Chinese Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) and once their objective to trigger a conflict between China and Hong Kong is met, they would perish as they used to do in the past.

Hongkongers should give an astute review to the unsavory credentials of the foreign interferers before it is too late and the circumstances push them to a point of no-return.

US trade war with China isn’t all about trade

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-08-18/The-U-S-trade-war-with-China-isn-t-all-about-trade-JfHsV3cieA/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1cjYPfvBnD2oeWEzLfPgmvDluaLGeq6bBDUv6ygSPteGRjfj50MVKxpEI#

Over the years, the international financial regulators have repeatedly presaged about the imminent Chinese economic collapse while casting doubts about Beijing’s ability to manufacture hi-tech or information and communication technology (ICT) products.

But China, by consistently posting impressive GDP growth rate, has successfully and overwhelmingly smashed all the prejudiced Western forecasts about Beijing’s economy. China tended to stun its economic rivals through 2019 as its growth rate cruised to 6.3% in the first half the year.

Beijing’s contenders further disseminate that China, albeit incredible developments, is still trampled in the lower end of the manufacturing supply chain. This isn’t true either. China, in fact, logged a trade surplus of $76 billion in 2018 in high-tech products and the gap continues to widen. Its exports and imports totaled $747 billion and $671 billion respectively for the last year.

The latest economic data outrightly rebuffs the widespread belief about China being trapped into lower-end manufacturing products whereas its hi-tech trade surplus demonstrates that Beijing’s manufacturing, indeed, is helping the global value chain to surge.

China is rapidly developing its ICT market from standalone smart phone production to ICT-integrated technologies into, and transforming, traditional industries. In addition, by improving the quality of domestically-produced hardware, software, and services – Chinese companies are threatening to challenge their global competitors, a trend that would not be greeted by the United Sates at least.

The substantial achievements in the field of hi-tech market would allow China to lessen its reliance on the United States that is trying to diversify the trade war into technology areas, space domains, nuclear race, and capital and currency markets as well as to dominate on the newer technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cyber security.

Huawei is the hottest victim of the US technology war on China. After Google, over US restrictions, suspended Huawei’s access to its Android OS – the Chinese world No. 1 telecom supplier and No. 2 mobile phone manufacturer launched its own operating system Harmony/Hongmeng OS at Huawei Development Conference (HDC) 2019.

The launch news Huawei indigenous operating system (OS) sent US President Donald Trump in tatters who voiced that the US would not do business with Huawei. “We are not going to do business with Huawei. ... And I really made the decision. It’s much simpler not doing any business with Huawei. ... That doesn’t mean we won’t agree to something if and when we make a trade deal,” disturbed Trump said.

In an interview with Sky News, Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei warned the Trump administration that if his company is denied the access to “full-fat” Andriod OS for its future smart phones, then the world would have a third operating system. So if Huawei succeeds to develop an effective OS, it could be the beginning of the end of dominance enjoyed by US Google and Apples operating systems.

As the Chinese technology giant is also working on 6G next generation wireless technology at its research center in Ottawa and is set to release its own mapping service in October, the dominating mindset of the US would press Trump not to lift sanctions and tighten the screws on Huawei.

However, the US actions to crash Chinese economy would dent the US interests as well. In 2017, China represented about 50% market share in the global semiconductor market of $336 billion. Powered by Chinese growth of 20.5%, the market rose to $469 billion in 2018. But due to the US curbs on Chinese companies, the global semiconductor market is now forecasted to shrink by 12.1% to $412 billion in 2019.

US complaints about China’s technology companies, threatening its national security interests and fettering American businesses, are not new. In October 2012, the US House Intelligence Committee had alleged that China’s Huawei and ZTE were failed to address the committee’s concerns about snooping on American businesses and individuals.

Therefore the United States, year before, had already perceived that China is going to challenge its technology dominance around the world. While Trump initiated the trade war on China just the last year, the prior 2012’s spying charges by the US on Chinese firms narrate that it isn’t all about only the trade war.

US foresees China a global rival across all scenarios. On August 14, the US Commerce Department added Beijing’s largest state-owned nuclear company China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and some of its affiliates to the entity list for “acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States”.

The dots of the fresher US sanctions should be connected with the US Senate hearing by General Mark A. Milley, the upcoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Calling indolence in the nuclear triad “critical”, Mulley conceded that China is pursuing on all domains of military operations including space “to be at least a peer competitor, a world-class military with the U.S. military by the mid-2030s” and “they want to have a capability to defeat us by mid-century.”

While China actively pursues its “Made in China 2025” to shift towards producing high-quality goods and service as well as to modernize its defense and military by 2035, the US stringent actions elaborate that it would continue to sanction China and the Chinese companies even if it makes a trade deal with Beijing.

Kashmir erupts to denounce Article 370 revocation

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-08-10/Revoking-Article-370-creates-instability-and-disgruntlement-J2Rr0eF6uc/index.html

Political leaders and the folks across the Indian-held Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) were stripped, hushed, and confined by the powder keg move of ruling Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) to split the state into two federally-administrated union territories, J&K and Ladakh.

Days before the controversial amendment to repeal the autonomous status of J&K, Indian authorities deployed as many as 35,000 additional paramilitary troops to initiate a clampdown in the disputed region, anticipating fervent public protests.

Tourists were asked to leave, calls were made to stockpile food and fuel, phones and internet services were suspended, schools and universities were closed, and state leaders were placed under house arrest in the valley.

The contentious BJP’s “Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill” spiked tensions with China and Pakistan as the new legislation grimly violated bilateral agreements with the two Indian-neighboring countries about not unilaterally changing the status of the region.

It further invited ire from Beijing and Islamabad as Indian home minister Amit Shah threatened in the country’s Lok Sabah to annex China’s Aksai Chin and Pakistan-administrated Kashmir while avowing to die for this. India and Pakistan controls one-half and one-third of the entire Jammu and Kashmir respectively whereas China claims part of its Himalayan plateau.

Modi regime’s divisive action simultaneously ripped up 1993 and 1996 treaties with China and detonated the 1972 Shimla Agreement with Pakistan that obligated China-India to respect Line of Actual Control (LAC) and India-Pakistan to abide by Line of Control (LOC). The peace pacts also forbid all countries that neither of them would alter the ceasefire lines unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations.

While it is an established fact that Kashmir is an internationally declared contested territory and no autarchic move can change the disputed status of the state, India scrapped all the bilateral accords and stated that the decision to squash the region’s autonomy is purely its internal matter.

The shocking Indian pronouncement would not only dole out terrific blows to the image of India as the largest democracy of the world but would also have long-term implications in the region that houses the most conflict zones the world over.

Later on, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s verbatim tweet “Special congratulations to the people of Ladakh!” asserted to have fulfilled long-standing demand of the people of Ladakht to declare it an administrative division of India.

But soon after carving out the territory from J&K, New Delhi extended prohibitory orders to the towns of Kargil, Drass, and Sankoo towns of Ladakh. Since Monday, Ladakh is in lockdown. Shops and local businesses were closed in the region as restrictions were imposed on Ladakh after disturbances in Kashmir.

The strong reaction from the people of Ladakh grossly contradicted Modi’s claim about meeting people’s demand to announce Ladakh an Indian union territory. The partisan Indian action could also fuel tensions and fissure its relations with China that had just started to repair.

In Kashmir, BJP’s bill to bifurcate J&K was also encountered with broad and intense criticism and protests from the people and leaders of region who characterized Indian government for acting “without the consent of the people” and called for a shutdown on Tuesday.

“Today marks the darkest day in Indian democracy. Decision of J&K leadership to reject 2 nation theory in 1947 & align with India has backfired. Unilateral decision of GOI (Government of India) to scrap Article 370 is illegal & unconstitutional which will make India an occupational force in J&K,” said Mehbooba Mufti, a former chief minister of the state.

BJP regime believes that it could reshape the religious dynamics of the region by allowing people from all over India to buy property in J&K. The tactic to play a religious card for revitalizing political ambitions is appalling and could prove fatal for Modi administration.

Indian resolution to revoke special self-governing status of its controlled part of Kashmir enraged and dismayed the opposition parties and civil society activists in country as well that all ostracized the step and dubbed it as a “betrayal” and violation to the Indian constitution.

Rahul Gandhi, a prominent Indian Congress leader decried the Modi government radical act. “National integration isn’t furthered by unilaterally tearing apart J&K, imprisoning elected representatives and violating our Constitution. This nation is made by its people, not plots of land. This abuse of executive power has grave implications for our national security.”

On Thursday for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370, Prime Minister Modi spoke to the Indian nation on the grilling issue and attributed the rescinded clause for slowing down the pace of development in J&K.

Nevertheless, the leader of fanatic Hindu nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) indicated to back off from the revocation of the article while assuring that the decision is provisional and the autonomous status of J&K would be reinstated once the situation in the valley stabilizes.

It would be in the interest of India and the region that Modi government immediately corrects its wrongdoing and prevents the implementation of the bill into J&K otherwise the people of Ladakh and Kashmir would enforce it to annul the debatable move.

Trump’s global war on trade

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2030365/6-trumps-global-war-trade/?fbclid=IwAR2pn74Q21UCaaXL0WcqxpFszBFhoxASXtB85crxOMoVMdqZufSWqoaq0xQ

The US President Donald Trump once again popped up on twitter with his impulsive and impatient brashness over China and announced to place 10% additional tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1.

While conceding to have constructive talks between the US and Chinese officials about a future trade deal, Trump rationalized his tariff placement in a comeback to Beijing’s’ reluctance to buy US agriculture products in large quantities and to stopping fentanyl exports into the US.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying dubbed the act as a serious violation of the consensus reached by the Chinese and US Presidents at G-20 summit in Osaka and threatened to take necessary countermeasures. “We do not want a trade war, but we are not afraid of fighting one,” she added.

As Trump historically hasn’t retreated from his tariff misadventures, his provocative action would break the trade truce with China and would invite Beijing to take retaliatory measures. Hence, the tensed situation could dramatically escalate of trade war between the two largest economies of the world.

It is shocking that at a time while the China-US trade negotiations were sailing smoothly towards a decisive trade deal; Trump rushes down with a series of grating tweets. The hasty but expected proclamation elaborates that the kernel of Trump’s tariff strategy has a political backdrop.

Unwinding US military engagements in foreign countries such as in Afghanistan and trade deals with China, European Union (EU), Japan, and Mexico were Trump’s key promises to the American public during his previous presidential campaign.

But to date, he has only been able to accomplish a trade agreement with Mexico. As he has set September as a deadline to arrive on a peace deal with Afghan Taliban, he is desperate to strike trade pacts with China, Japan, and EU.

Therefore, Trump administration is actively pursuing to conclude a preliminary peace agreement with Taliban, to reach a limited trade agreement with Japan, and to partially settle trade disputes with EU, all later this month. While the new tariffs on Chinese goods would take effect from September 1, Trump craves to pull the plug on trade strains with Beijing quickly.

As US presidential canvassing would soon flare-up into a full-blown politicking, the looming peace and trade agreements would help Trump to effectively run and fast-track his 2020 presidential campaign with some achievements on his back. The success on these issues would definitely aid Trump to lodge into the White House for another term.

But the Trump’s political gambles meanwhile are hurting the US economy. As the fresher tariffs bill to penalize Chinese consumer electronics, clothing, shoes, and toys – American buyers of the Chinese goods have to be the definitive victims of Trump’s strident actions.

Trump’s prior 25% tariffs in May on $250 billion of Chinese goods were expected to have cost $500 per American household annually. If the new tariffs are implemented, it would cost American families roughly $700 and $900 per year respectively additionally, Oxford Economics told Newsweek. The Peterson Institute reckons it to be even higher, $1,270 per annum.

Retailers will be the prime target of novel tariffs, which will stumble when the new levies go into effect as they “disproportionately impact apparels, footwear, consumer electronics, and toys,” said Kate McShane of Goldman Sachs in a note to his clients.

Immediately after Trump’s tariffs announcement on imports from China, the shares of retailers on the Wall Street also tanked by 3%. The experts on the Wall Street are also unanimously united is that the Departmental Stores are exposed to substantial risks.

The US Chamber of Commerce has shown its disappointment on Trump’s tariffs hike as well. “Raising tariffs by ten percent on an additional $300 billion worth of imports from China will only inflict greater pain on American businesses, farmers, workers and consumers, and undermine an otherwise strong U.S. economy,” a statement of the organization’s executive vice president said on Thursday.

Stock markets the world over were also apprehensive of Trump’s abrupt decision to whack additional tariffs on Chinese goods. The London’s Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 Index or “Footsie”, French stock market, German Dax Index, and Nikkei all witnessed nervous investors’ reactions and sank sharply.

So Trump’s self-initiated trade war with China not only preys on his voters and haters equally but it would also put a squeeze on the US economy and GDP that would be subject to contract over flagging purchasing power of the townsfolk spread out across the country.

In addition, as a result of the US President’s irrational and unscrupulous trade war, the US multinational companies would be forced to shift their manufacturing plants in the nearby countries – thereby losing manufacturing jobs to the US, the crux of Trump’s campaign towards China.

Trump’s global war on trade might perhaps help him to regain a political win in the coming elections and another term as a US President but by the time, the damage to the US economy and the American buyers could have been irreversible.

Can Trump mediate on Kashmir?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "Riyadh Daily":
http://alriyadhdaily.com/article/084d9fcfc862469ab0db3725e58c9447?fbclid=IwAR21hdXPig6lv_6QOlCiHt3zekWbF3qK2lPPR-VNrVYxdcXSA4qi_ii6pVQ

Murky clouds of yet another intense conflict between India and Pakistan are looming as the government of India (GOI) introduced a resolution in the parliament to repeal the autonomous status of Indian-held Kashmir and to split the disputed region into two territories. The motion flashed an immediate and fierce ire from the country’s opposition parties.

In an extraordinary move, Indiaan authorities deployed tens of thousands of additional paramilitary troops to initiate a clampdown in Kashmir – a nuclear flashpoint that has so far tugged the two South Asian adversaries into war twice apart from ceaseless clashes.

On August 5 – tourists were asked to leave, calls were made to stockpile food and fuel, phones and internet services were suspended, schools and universities were closed, and state leaders were placed under house arrest in the Muslim-majority valley.

While the two arch rivals also continue to exchange heavy shelling across the line of control (LOC) including alleged use of cluster bombs by Indian military – Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan warned that the conditions could blow up into a regional crisis and pressed the US President Donald Trump to assert his commitment about Kashmir mediation.

On Thursday, the US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his offer to mediate on Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan – a call New Delhi spurned again, maintaining that all the rows including longstanding Kashmir dispute would only be resolved bilaterally.

US profound silence on deployment of massive additional Indian military troops, on the bifurcation of Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir, and on the imminent crackdown on Kashmiris implies that Washington has quietly endorsed New Delhi’s provocative measures in the valley.

But since the US comprehends that without Pakistan, durable peace in Afghanistan would remain an illusion – it is avoiding to taking Indian side publicly.

On the other hand, Pakistan intuits the US decades-old sporadic regional strategy but because peace in Afghanistan is tightly interlaced with its own national security interests – it is increasingly determined to facilitate the Afghan peace process.

India has grave concerns over its isolation from Afghan peace process. Since long, New Delhi has been cagey of Afghan Taliban’s growing influence in Afghanistan, perceiving it a threat to its national security. While it has provided significant financial and military aid to the Kabul administration to crush Taliban, it is somewhat deplorable for India to be barred from crucial peace talks.

After conceding Afghanistan, it would be excruciating for India to forfeit Kashmir too. Just before the latest terrorist incidences in Pakistan, Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval travelled to Kashmir and suggested to deploy further military troops in the disputed territory. In June 2018, the wrangled territory was brought under Governor’s rule, which was followed by the implementation of President’s rule after six months.

Pakistan indicts that India is aiding a separatist organization Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) in its Balochistan province to destabilize its fate-changer China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and to distract its focus from Kashmir. Both Pakistan and the US has sanctioned BLA as a terrorist organization.

Last year, Pakistani intelligence agencies captured a working Indian navy’s secret service officer Kulbhushan Yadav from Balochistan who was involved in terrorist activities in Pakistan to sabotage Chinese Belt and Road’s crown jewels, CPEC and Gwadar port.

While both India and the US have been critical of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as its Pakistani arm of CPEC, it provides them a common ground to strategically unify in the region against their respective rivals.

As the US key foreign policy objective, to control Chinese growing influence, largely hinges on India – Trump may not be in a position to enrage India by effectively forcing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resolve Kashmir dispute.

The US president would therefore rather pursue a vague diplomatic regional strategy to offering himself as a mediator but pragmatically he wouldn’t play any emphatic role for the dispute resolution. It is highly likely that he would rather overlook Indian aggression and human rights violations in Kashmir.

Given the US wider foreign policy objectives in the region, Pakistan should not put high stakes on Trump to settle the age-old Indo-Pak squabble. Islamabad should scrutinize Trump’s dispassionate and reticent offer on Kashmir mediation in the backdrop of his campaign to end the US 19-year impasse in Afghanistan.

The blame is on Trump for US soybean farmers' angst and unrest

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-08-07/The-blame-is-on-Trump-for-U-S-soybean-farmers-angst-and-unrest-IYcyCOSWOc/index.html

On Tuesday, China’s central bank deeply regretted US Treasury Department’s determination to designate Beijing as a “currency manipulator”, accentuating the label does not meet the quantitative standards of the so-called “currency manipulator. The statement also subbed the US act “a wayward unilateral and protectionist behavior”.

In its press release, the US Treasury Department has earlier said that Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin would take up the issue to International Monetary Fund (IMF) “to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage created by China’s latest actions.”

Interestingly, the Trump administration would approach an international financial watchdog which has recently stated that the Chinese RNB/Yuan exchange rate is generally in lines with the fundamentals.

While deliberately discounting the fact that Chinese Renminbi is the strongest currency in G-20 countries that has witnessed considerable appreciations over the years – Trump’s deplorable actions towards China intuit that he is craving to inflame pressure on Beijing by expanding trade war into other portfolios such as forex and financial markets.

Trump administering fails to comprehend that Yuan deflation would not necessarily increase China’s exports; instead such irrepressible episodes could lead Chinese capital outflows to panic and import costs to soar as well as could threaten country’s financial stability.

The latest move textured after last week the US President Donald Trump popped up on twitter and announced that he would whack 10% tariffs on remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods while asserting that Beijing is not buying large quantities of US agriculture produce, soybeans being the largest.

Maybe Trump’s newer verdict was based on an archaic trade data. Earlier this year when China-US trade war was at full boom, Chinese soybeans imports from US had plummeted by a whopping 70.6% to 4.3 million tons for the first four months (January to April) of 2018.

But immediately after Trump and Xi agreed to play down trade frictions at G-20 summit in Osaka, China honored its pledge and bought about 2.3 million tons of US soybeans whereas another 2 million tons of US soybean shipments would reach China in August.

According to Chinese state planner National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Beijing has imported 130,000 tons of soybeans, 120,000 tons of sorghum, 60,000 tons of wheat and 65,000 tons of cotton and other products from July 19 to August 2 from the US.

So Trump’s claim about China not importing US agriculture products in bulk is doomed to absurd and irrational. In fact, the US president is putting lame excuses to vindicate his baseless farm produce accusation that is followed by his unsubstantiated currency manipulation charges on China.

US unremitting provocative measures invite China’s ire. Hence in response to Trump’s trade crusade, on Monday China said that it would not rule out the possibility to levy additional tariffs on US agriculture imports. As a result, the Chinese companies have halted their imports of US agriculture produce from August 3.

Trump’s incessant and hot trade manipulation tactics have hard-pressed China to find some reliable soybean and other agriculture produce suppliers other than the US. During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the Kremlin in June, China and Russia signed a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in a new era including a Development Plan on Deepening China-Russian Cooperation in Soybeans.

Beijing is the world’s largest buyer of soybeans and consumes about 110 million tons of soybeans against domestic production of just 16 million tons. In a blow to the US farmers, Chinese farmers would now grow soybean in Russia to send back home and to meet massive domestic consumption.

China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) is thoroughly facilitating the consensus reached by Chinese and Russian president and has now allowed soybean imports from all over Russia – expanding prior imports from just five Russian regions bordering China. According to a report by Chinese agriculture department, a total of 28 Chinese soybean companies have invested in outside China - Russia being the largest with 20 companies.

While China is only taking preventive measures to look out for sustainable farm produce suppliers, the US soybean and other farmers should only blame their president for the unrest and angst among them and that has slashed US agriculture exports from $19.5 billion in 2017 to $9.1 billion in 2018.