Shifting tides in the Middle East

By: Azhar Azam

Turkey and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) maintained warm economic, cultural and political ties until relations descended into deep animosity in 2010s over Ankara’s support for Arab Spring and Muslim Brotherhood’s government in Cairo. Turkey backed the Islamist organization while Saudi Arabia and UAE opposed its rule.

Broad approval of a Pan-Islamic, religious movement in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria was perceived a threat to the dynastic rule in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Qatar, another hereditary state endorsed Mohamed Morsi before he was overthrown by Egyptian army in 2013 and died during a trial over charges of espionage in 2019.

Notwithstanding differences on Brotherhood – US, through one of the costliest CIA covert programs Timber Sycamore in Syria, managed to align regional rivals in 2013 and started to deliver lethal assistance to 50 vetted opposition factions. The operation – staffed by representatives from America, France, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and UAE – conked out as patrons supported their favored groups. Resultantly, US policy in Syria failed and many CIA-supplied weapons ended up in the hands of al Qaeda.

Qatar diplomatic crisis, Jamal Khashoggi killing, competition for influence in Sudan and exchange of accusations to undermine the Palestinian cause deteriorated Saudi-Turkish relationship further. Each of them wanted to lead the Muslim world; Ankara pursuit of irredentist, Neo-Ottoman ideology across Mideast, Africa, Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus widened the trust deficit.

Nevertheless, Turkey and Saudi Arabia managed to find consensus on Syria where they backed opposition forces. In March 2015, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan supported the Saudi-led mission in Yemen and slammed Iran for trying to dominate the region by following a sectarian agenda and backing Houthi rebels, demanding Tehran to withdraw forces from Yemen, Syria and Iraq.

There are speculations Ankara still can intervene in Sana’a over requests to jump into the fray from Al-Islah Party, the Yemeni affiliate of Brotherhood that ostensibly played an important role to cool tensions between Saudi Arabia and Turkey and whose cooperation in the conflict Abu Dhabi has long opposed.

In December 2017, Ankara-Abu Dhabi ties plunged to a new low after Erdogan, without naming UAE foreign minister, chided him as an “impudent” nouveau riche after he shared a tweet, denunciating Ottoman leader Fakhreddin Pasha of stealing money and manuscripts from Medina in 1916. In turn, Abu Dhabi stressed the Arab world “will not be led by Tehran or Ankara.”

Egypt, UAE and Turkey have been at odds on multiple fronts in Mideast and Horn of Africa. Last year, bickering turned into fierce diplomatic spat once Abu Dhabi indicted Ankara for interference in Libya and Turkey claimed UAE was assisting al-Shabab militants in Somalia, bringing “chaos” through intervention in Tripoli and Sana’a and alongside Egypt, “trying to destabilize the whole region.”

Erdogan, who threatened to suspend diplomatic relations with the Emirates on normalizing relations with Israel, himself seems to toe the UAE line as he recently agreed to minimize “differences of opinion” with Tel Aviv in a phone talk with his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog and emphasized a “mutually beneficial” relationship.

America's consistent deprioritization, reduced engagement and phased pullback from the greater Middle East that started under Obama, adopted by Trump and is being followed by Biden to shift focus on a theater of strategic importance, Asia-Pacific, propelled countries for a wider regional rapprochement.

Qatar blockade by the Arab quartet (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt), demanding Doha downgrade diplomatic ties with Tehran and close a Turkish military base on Qatari soil, was withdrawn and diplomatic relations were restored in January. After lifting the embargo, Abu Dhabi said it didn’t “cherish any feuds” and expressed willingness to bury the hatchet with Ankara.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu gave an affirmative response, adding first contacts between Ankara and Cairo had been restored since two regional powers sparred and broke off in 2013. Tensions eased between Egypt and Turkey once Turkish government forbade three Brotherhood-linked TV channels in the country from airing criticism against Cairo.

In a glaring move, Erdogan bypassed diplomatic protocol and personally received UAE National Security Advisor Tahnoun bin Zayedon August 18. The “historical and positive” meeting, focused on cooperation and economic partnership, was a carpe diem moment for Ankara that helped an increasingly isolated Turkey to recalibrate relations with the Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and launch a charm offensive to curry favor with Abu Dhabi for “serious” investments.

A rare phone call between Erdogan UAE de facto ruler Mohammed bin Zayed on August 31 further opened up the way for new wider regional reconciliation. Abu Dhabi profited from détente too since it has been seeking to shore up Middle East collaboration under Washington’s steady withdrawal from region.

The cost of bitter Turkey-UAE rivalry – which fueled conflict in Libya, tested their relations on Brotherhood and their allies in Syria and Tunisia and pushed to vie for influence in Somalia – is particularly high for Ankara where stubbornly high inflation has reached 19% and central bank is forced to sell $128 billion forex reserves to support the free-falling lira.

Establishment of a $10 billion fund by UAE in Turkey and cooperation agreements between two countries would shift trend from conflicts to economic issues. The pivot to economy and possible swap deals should support lira, shed 45% this year, and set tone for other countries to follow and contribute to region’s stability and growth.

UAE has been trying to cap rivalries with both Turkey and Iran as the Gulf state hones in on a post-pandemic economy after America's retreat from Afghanistan “definitely” provided a “very worrying test” about the opaque US commitment and described Washington’s snotty attitude to abandon allies and leave a “vacuum” in the region for trouble.

After Abu Dhabi said it would take steps to de-escalate tensions with Tehran, bilateral rifts took a backseat during Iranian officials’ visit to UAE as two sides agreed to work for regional stability and prosperity. In a latest diplomatic overture, UAE top diplomat reached Damascus and threw trust behind Syrian strongman, Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, Erdogan is keen to enhance ties with Saudi Arabia and make use of the “close cooperation” for regional peace, stability and prosperity. Albeit expressing strong reservations about resumption of talks on the Iran nuclear deal, Riyadh intends to continue negotiations with Tehran.

Washington’s allies in Arabian Peninsula have voiced their “angst” to the Biden administration on US declining commitment to the region. US president’s snub to greater Middle East at the “Summit for Democracy” further establishes his lagging interest in the Middle East and would accelerate this novel, localized framework of cooperation and broader regional rapprochement.

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2333721/shifting-tides-in-the-middle-east

Biden needs to focus on reforming US political system

By: Azhar Azam

A report from the University of Cambridge which covered 154 countries and combined more than 25 data sources, 3,500 country surveys and four million respondents between 1973 and 2020, wreaked blunt force trauma to advanced economies that championed democracy as a definitive solution to every economic, political and social problem.

The largest dataset ever created on global attitudes found democracy was in a "state of malaise" as the share of individuals "dissatisfied" with democracy had significantly jumped from 47.9 percent in mid-1990s to 57.5 percent in Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia and Americas. The citizens of many large democracies including Australia, the UK and the U.S. showed their "highest-ever" level for displeasure on the so-called egalitarian politics.

Ahead of the virtual "Summit for Democracy" on December 9 and 10, "very few" believed American democracy was a good model for the rest of the world to follow. After the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer, Americans and the international community suspected that the Western form of democracy set a fair example and considered that racial or ethnic discrimination was worse in the U.S. than in other parts of the world.

Unsurprisingly, the U.S. is now described as a "backsliding" democracy and "victim of authoritarian tendencies" over significant weakening of checks on the government and civil liberties. Several factors such as a disputed presidential election, the passage of restrictive voting laws and the January 6 invasion of the Capitol in Washington have exposed serious deficiencies in the U.S. democratic system and questioned Joe Biden's legitimacy to host a debate on democracy.

It is no wonder that owing to political divisions in the country, the Western political model is steadily losing its luster within and outside America. The U.S. president's campaign for democracy, therefore, sounds more about salvaging Americans' deteriorating faith in the U.S. political system than countering the "autocracies" elsewhere.

Since 1981, the country's government has shut down 14 times as two major rival political parties continue to fight tooth and nail over funding of hundreds of federal agencies.

Nevertheless, there have been a number of instances when U.S. politicians, after being gridlocked in bitter partisanship, came up with a bipartisan consensus to protect their duopoly in an "irrational and dysfunctional" political structure, according to the magazine, Harvard Business Review. This was what happened last month after the Democrats and Republicans acted in concert to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

The oligarchic political arrangement in the U.S. comprising four traditions – characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination, and two types of interest-group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism – has been controlled by the powerful business organizations, revealing America is a democratic republic in name only.

The rising influence of economic elites and organized groups, a leading driver of polarization, denies average citizens' role in policymaking and uses the system to entrench wealth by seeking tax breaks and blocking redistributive policies. If some challenge big corporations' interests, they will lose the latter's support in the election. With congressmen being the agents of the major businesses, Americans shouldn't expect their representatives to deliver results to them.

Since the concept of a "coalition of democracies" was floated last November, global leaders cast doubts about the success of the "cold war-style" alliance against China. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was one of those who sharply dismissed Biden's idea, emphasizing that not many countries would be interested in this kind of approach.

The five-term prime minister of Singapore called Donald Trump's era a "tumultuous ride" and perceived his "America First" and "Make America Great Again" as a "narrow definition" of the U.S.' historical interests overseas. As a result of the U.S. "judgment," the city state as well as Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia were not invited to the event, which could go on to complicate the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy in next few months.

At a time when the world is embattled with so many challenges and sorely needs global cooperation on economy and health, observers are highlighting the voting rights controversy, the U.S. president's struggle to manage election-related chaos and Americans' distrust in domestic democratic institutions. Biden's highfalutin framing of the summit to position the U.S. as the global democratic leader and his misguided focus on ideological differences cannot satisfy his nation; it would further divide the international world and undermine universal cooperation.

The summit is taking a back seat in Europe, where regional countries are holding the citizen-led Conference on the Future of Europe from December 10 to 12 on a wider range of topics including climate change, health, economy, jobs and digital transformation. While critics in South Asia are seeking the U.S. to fix its democratic deficits before preaching democratic values, some Latin American leaders are excluded from the meeting over the region's strong economic ties with China.

Biden should not define geopolitics as a clash between "autocracy and democracy" to divide the world through an ideological approach over fear of China's growing economic power. China has its own democratic model, which, unlike the U.S., allows people to actively participate in the development of the country. As Chinese pragmatic and goal-oriented policy emphasizes on cooperation between civilizations, Biden won't be able to construct a coalition against China and will have to reform the U.S. political system to make it favorable for Americans.

*This is my opinion piece that originally appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-12-11/Biden-s-needs-to-focus-on-reforming-U-S-political-system-15SDTLoLhhS/index.html

ASEAN summit injects new impetus into Malaysia's economic, strategic ambitions

By: Azhar Azam

Malaysia is the second-largest exporter of goods in ASEAN, with the exports accounting for over 60 percent of its GDP. In 2020, China was Malaysia's largest export destination as it got 16.2 percent of the country's total exports worth $37.7 billion. In the same year, China was also its biggest source of foreign direct investment for manufacturing, services and primary sectors, which totaled $4.3 billion.

Beholden to China for its COVID-19 support, particularly vaccine donations, Malaysia wanted to see a deepened cooperation between ASEAN and Beijing on post-pandemic recovery; public health and pharma capabilities to better prepare for future health emergencies; and digital economy, given its accelerated growth during the prevalent infections worldwide.

In return, China showed optimism for the two countries, fast-tracking post-pandemic economic growth by scaling up trade and investment to new heights. Beijing is willing to share its development experience and enhance cooperation in potential areas, such as the digital economy, industrial parks, infrastructure construction, equipment manufacturing, information and communications technology, and cyber security.

Peace and stability is Malaysia's top priority to advance regional development. This was reflected in the speech by Malaysian President Ismail Sabri Yaakob at the ASEAN-China Special Summit when he expressed alarm at the U.S.'s regional approach. He reiterated that the two sides were fully aware of the need for peace to attain economic growth.

Most of his views were consistent with Beijing as he urged China and ASEAN to work together on a multilateral world order for "sustainable and peaceful coexistence" while commemorating the 30th anniversary of the ASEAN-China Dialogue Relations. He backed China's call and urged developed nations to meet their promise to developing countries of fighting climate change by providing finance, transferring technology and building capacity.

According to the Malaysian president, Kuala Lumpur aspired to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and lauded commitments made by China at the COP26 in Glasgow, seeking to maintain balance between climate change and socioeconomic development. Climate change is threatening to undo the last 50 years' progress in development, global health and poverty reduction mostly in the developing states with weak health infrastructure. It is, therefore, crucial to join forces on a shared challenge and prevent it from plundering the hard-won gains.

Declaring that it has realized the first centenary goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, China not only contributed to 70 percent of global poverty reduction, according to World Bank data, but the world's most populous and developing country's average annual contribution of more than 30 percent to world GDP also helped safeguard international peace and development.

The Chinese authorities understood the importance of the climate crisis long before and took measures to counter the imminent threat. Over the past two decades, China has added one-fourth of the world's new vegetation areas. On top of that, China's energy consumption per unit of carbon dioxide emissions also witnessed a drop of 18.8 percent between 2015 and 2020.

Since development imperatives of China and Malaysia are highly compatible and the latter aims to benefit from its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the two sides have the opportunity to close ranks, integrate their economies and strengthen bilateral trade and investment relationship in the coming years.

In his address, Chinese President Xi Jinping committed to providing $1.5 billion, in addition to delivering 150 million COVID-19 vaccines and transfer advanced technology, to ASEAN nations to bolster their pandemic control and economic revival efforts. The economic and health support will boost Malaysia and other ASEAN nations' inoculation campaigns and economic prospects.

Moreover, the Malaysian president's digital economy push got an immediate boost after Huawei on Tuesday launched its newly refurbished and upgraded Customer Solution Innovation Center to assist Malaysia to become a regional digital hub.

Against the claim that the South China Sea would be one of the thorniest issues between China and ASEAN, Malaysia adhered to Xi's call for practicing "true multilateralism," agreeing to peacefully resolve all territorial and jurisdictional disputes and exercise "self-restraint," something Sabri referred to earlier. The intent to hold friendly consultations and forge an environment conducive for negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the strategic waterways would open the way for a durable peace and stability amid the U.S.'s malign activities to destabilize the region.

*This is my opinion piece that originally appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-11-25/ASEAN-summit-injects-new-impetus-into-Malaysia-s-economic-ambitions-15ttRdSu8hO/index.html