November 20, 2023

Great-power spy conflict is brewing in Asia

By: Azhar Azam

Citing anonymous US officials, a Bloomberg report said the US was constructing a web of intelligence links in Asia to counter China. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the new and strengthened partnerships, formally known as intelligence liaison relationships; America's efforts to develop isolated-but-overlapping alliances for covert activities including an intelligence-sharing arrangement with the Quad is a risky maneuver at a time when it's sending officials and lawmakers in droves Beijing to reconsolidate the relationship.

This flashbacks to 2013 when whistleblower Edward Snowden fled the US for Hong Kong and told the South China Morning Post that "The United States government has committed a tremendous number of crimes against Hong Kong" and "the PRC (China) as well." His allegations, America was spying on the European embassies, led to expulsion of the CIA station chief in Germany after the country's agencies found Angela Merkel's mobile phone was bugged by a couple of American spies.

Merkel “made it clear” to then US President Barack Obama that “spying on friends is not acceptable at all.” Leaders of Austria, Bulgaria, Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands stalwartly backed her complaint and sought an explanation from the US. A furious Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff called off her state trip to the US in protest of eavesdropping on her mail and cell phone, forcing Obama to ban such surveillance activities; in Paris, an American ambassador was summoned before Obama promised his French counterpart to end those espionage practices.

Following a 10-year break, highly-classified leaked Pentagon papers – unearthing this April the US was eavesdropping on the US allies including South Korea and whom America was reportedly pressuring to supply arms to Ukraine but it remained hesitant since its law restricts export of weapons that would “affect” international peace – stirred the pot again and disclosed the US hadn’t scaled back its clandestine operations regardless that were having damning effects on its international relations.

Opposition Democratic Party of Korea, which controlled the National Assembly, equated the alleged US espionage with “a serious violation of national sovereignty.” The officials of the Five Eyes alliance – a "covert club" of English-speaking countries that aims to keep redefining the geopolitical landscape according to its foreign policy goals – expected the US to “share damage assessment” and expressed concern the leaked Ukraine war information could handicap their countries in the battlefield.

The UN too chided the US on the reports of spying on the private conversations of its Secretary-General António Guterres and other senior officials, stating such actions “ were inconsistent with the US obligations as enumerated in the UN Charter and convention on the privileges and immunities.

Latest episode redraws focus on the fact that America's sanctions and exports control on the Chinese companies such as Huawei, which it has accused of espionage for Beijing and declared a national security threat, target to hobble China's economic and technological advancement. This push is being supported by the US efforts to fabricate a seamlessly integrated web of intelligence networks around the Middle Kingdom.

Washington’s Huawei chase dates back to the early 2010s when an 18-month review reportedly found no evidence that it had been spying for China. “As far as the report cited is concerned, it proves again that allegations against Huawei are unfounded,” said a Chinese spokesperson. A German IT watchdog, Federal Office for Information Security, in 2018 also dismissed spy accusations on the company.

In July 2020, the US ordered the closure of a Chinese consulate in Houston for it ““was a hub of spying and intellectual property theft.” The political move, ahead of the presidential election in the country, marked a dramatic step in escalating tensions between the world’s largest economies and threatened to be "very damaging" to the bilateral relationship. The balloon saga earlier this year, that the US President Joe Biden admitted wasn’t a “major (security) breach” describes the fragility of the China-US relationship and the extent to which America is captivated by the China threat.

The US arguably operates the world's largest and most sophisticated surveillance system; its spy network in China, where the CIA misconstrued itself as “invincible,” has suffered a catastrophic blow. A Foreign Policy magazine’s report in 2018 told how a firewall, brought over from the Middle East by America’s intelligence to communicate with dozens of its spies in China, compromised their identities in 2010 and turned out to be one of the agency’s “worst intelligence failures in decades.”

Yet the US intelligence isn’t inclined to pull the plug on or suspend espionage operations in China. Announcing the establishment of the China Mission Center, the CIA Director William Burns in 2021 vowed to “further strengthen our collective work on the most important geopolitical threat we face in the 21st century, an increasingly adversarial Chinese government.”

His public statement this July at the Aspen Security Forum – the US agency had “made progress” on reestablishing its intelligence network in China, inviting immediate condemnation from Beijing, just a month after the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Beijing “to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation" - as well as the Reuters recent report about the revival of cold war submarine spy program by the US navy to counter China signal America is trying to buy more time to undergird its military footprint in East Asia.

For America, espionage activities are critical part to confine China’s economic and technological rise and guarantee the US dominance across these modern-day realms; they strips the US of the right to impugn the Chinese counter-espionage law that encourages and rewards the people to report suspicious activities and strives to dismantle clandestine operations being overseen by America through its spies such as John Shing-wan Leung who backstory was published by China’s Ministry of State Security last month.

After India cold-shouldered the US regional agenda over fear of reigniting two-front conflict with China and Pakistan and once the tripartite conference in Camp David focused on strengthening the US coordination with Japan and South Korea separately, just pledging to bring the trilateral security partnership “to a new height,” America’s bid to concoct NATO clones in the region, as expected, have nosedived. With deputy foreign ministers of China, Japan and South Korea agreeing to hold a leaders’ summit at the “earliest mutually convenient time,” the US reliance on stepping up espionage operations will likely increase.

Akin to Afghanistan where the US used Pakistan as a lever to defeat the former Soviet Union, it's seeking Southeast and East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam to play the same role for Washington as did Islamabad in South Asia to help it emerge as the most dominant world power before being abandoned, leaving the country's economy and security in tatters.

But this expansive and generational great-power spy conflict between America and China will have consequences for wider Asia and Biden's mantra of preventing the competition with Beijing from veering into a conflict given the latter has been and remains a formidable (original link) peer competitor to the former across the realms of economy, technology and military.

*My article that first appeared in the "Express Tribune."

November 4, 2023

China can play a crucial role in Argentina's economic revitalization

By: Azhar Azam

China is a very large country. It is a country that objectively leads international trade, and it is a country that has really treated Argentina very well," Argentine President Alberto Fernandez said recently. Recalling his several meetings with Xi Jinping, he said the Chinese president has been very supportive of him.

In February 2022, Fernandez came to China to meet Xi and attend the opening ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. At a time when the South American country greatly needed support to boost its economy, he signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), marking a true jubilation of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Argentina diplomatic relation. "This strategic decision will allow the national government to sign different agreements that guarantee financing for investments and works for more than $23.7 billion," said Argentina's government.

Fernandez highly praised China's alacrity to treat other countries with "great respect" rather than seeking them into submission, and the role of BRI in promoting development in Argentina and serving as a paradigm for unconditional multilateralism. It was clearly reflected in his recent interview, in which he called Beijing a "genuine investor" and a "valuable partner and friend."

According to Argentina's media, ahead of his trip to China to attend a host of meetings including the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Fernandez reaffirmed his intent of joining the BRICS and extending his support for the BRI.

Following signing the MoU on the BRI, Argentina in June agreed on a cooperation plan with China, including new infrastructure projects. Buenos Aires has been keen to move forward with infrastructure projects, in an effort to improve its connectivity with the world market and better integrate itself with regional and international economies, especially those in Asia.

The cooperation plan on infrastructure projects aims to increase Argentina's productivity, promote its development, and improve the people's well-being. For instance, the China Machinery Engineering Corporation told Fernandez it had completed around $2.47 billion of infrastructure projects in Argentina, reducing the cost of transportation and generating 4,800 direct jobs.

With the plan encompassing 13 sectors of strategic cooperation including education, tourism, sports, science and technology, and defense – Argentina's participation in the BRI contributes to the country's all-round development.

Argentina's decision to join the BRI is crucial for its economic diversification and green development since Beijing has already invested in Argentinian sectors and industries such as agriculture, finance, meat, automotive, fishing, and telecommunication as well as oil and gas, transportation, and alternative energy and the project – believed to have the potential to "facilitate an economic recovery" based on sustainable development and clean energy transition. As a BRI partner, it will attract more Chinese investments.

China is Argentina's second-largest export destination and trading partner. Bilateral trade between the two countries was projected to have increased from $2.3 billion in 2001 to $21.4 billion in 2022. Argentina's ambassador to China is hopeful that the BRI could turn Beijing into Buenos Aires primary trading partner as China's global development initiative continues to solidify its position as the most "significant infrastructure plan."

Buenos Aires has also signed a currency swap deal with Beijing, helping the country to stem the sharp contraction of its foreign exchange reserves after a historic drought slashed its main source of dollar revenue, grain exports. In June, the Argentinian central bank said it had signed a deal to renew the total 130 billion yuan (around $18.4 billion) swap line for three more years, eventually doubling the free accessible part of the swap from 35 billion yuan to 70 billion yuan.

Shortly after South Africa's President in August announced to admission of six countries including Argentina into the BRICS, Fernandez hailed it a "great opportunity," saying the invitation to join the group of emerging economies would herald new economic possibilities for his country such as joining new markets, consolidating existing markets, raising investment, creating jobs and increasing imports.

BRICS has emerged as a strong force in the Global South with 64 percent of its GDP. Once it becomes a member on January 1, 2024, Argentina will be the second Latin American country besides Brazil to join "the most relevant forum" globally that in 2022 roughly represented 26 percent of global GDP and 21 percent of global trade respectively and whose contribution in international economic output will reach 29 percent with the addition of six more countries, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Argentina's enrollment into BRICS will elevate its own and the region's profile internationally, opening the floodgates of a "profound trade development" and helping the government to rein in several economic crises. Upon his arrival, Fernandez, according to the president's office, locked a deal with a Chinese company that plans to invest $2.2 billion in two lithium projects in Argentina, creating 10,000 jobs, and met Huawei president in Latin America and the Caribbean, underscoring the importance of foreign investment. All these latest developments and statistics emphasize Beijing's critical role in Argentina's economic revitalization and the necessity to shore up the strategic partnership.

*My article that first appeared at CGTN: