November 30, 2024

Green cold war threatens survival against climate change

By: Azhar Azam

China and the European Union (EU) are inching towards a trade war after the two sides locked their horns in a battle over tariffs on Chinese electrical vehicles (EVs). Having failed to find a diplomatic solution, the European Commission (EC), which oversees the bloc's trade policy, on October 29 announced to impose duties on imports of unfairly subsidized battery electric vehicles from China for five years.

The EC Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis championed the EU “open, fair and rules-based trade,” insisting “By adopting these proportionate and targeted measures after a rigorous investigation, we’re standing up for fair market practices and for the European industrial base.”

But by barricading China’s green technology entrance into the EU through high tariffs, Brussels is threatening to obstruct its own economy, weaken its own fight against climate change and harm its own people.

That's because while these tariffs would shut out foreign competition in the EU, they will saddle the consumers with additional costs and undermine the bloc’s goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Furthermore, they will provoke retaliation from Beijing that could deal a blow to the EU exporters to China, potentially complicating the bloc’s economic challenges.

China has already opened anti-subsidy investigations into the imports of the EU dairy and other products. In response, Brussels challenged the probe at the World Trade organization in September. This was for the first time that the EU had launched a consultation request at the initiation stage, indicating how quickly a trade war between Beijing and Brussels is simmering.

German Association of the Automotive Industry's President Hildegard Müller has already given a warning to the bloc, dubbing these tariffs “a step backwards for free global trade.” “The industry is not naive in dealing with China but the challenges must be resolved in dialogue,” She said adding “the countervailing tariffs increase the risk of a far-reaching trade conflict.”

The uneven duty rates such as 17%, 18.8%. 35.3% and 7.8% EVs from BYD, Geely, SAIC and Tesla respectively on top of the EU standard 10% import duty are considered “measured”; such analysis ignore the impacts of these measures on the battle against climate change and that they violate the very basic principles of free trade and speak volumes of the EU’s targeted treatment.

Duties on Chinese EVs have divided the European capitals. For instance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wanted to continue negotiations with China as five EU member states including the bloc’s largest economy reportedly voted against the measure with 12 abstentions, unveiling inside rifts over the tariffs on EVs from China.

20.7% tariffs on German auto giants BMW and Volkswagen, manufacturing EVs in China, would infuriate Berlin for it considers Beijing “most important” and “a key business partner for Germany and all of Europe.” It’s pertinent to note that despite geopolitical tensions, economic headwinds, pressure from the US to pare back investments in China and calls of de-risking from their leaders, German carmakers and other companies have been reluctant to de-risk from China and are investing heavily there.

The EC cited unfair state subsidies, which helped Chinese EV manufacturers to undercut rivals in the EU on price, as a reason for imposing heavy taxes on Chinese EVs. True, they have played an important role in China's EV development yet other factors such as fierce domestic competition and technological innovations over the years have also helped accelerate Chinese EV evolution. What's more, battery production in China is more integrated than the US and Europe, courtesy of its leading role in upstream stages of the supply chain.

Tesla’s Elon Musk observation earlier this year “the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world” highlights why the EV manufacturers in China today are much more competitive than their competitors elsewhere. China has also set an ambitious target of having 45% new energy vehicles of all new auto sales by 2027. This also helped promote competition between domestic and foreign EV manufacturers in China as well as contributed to global environmental goals.

Seeing Beijing’s climate contributions through the geopolitical lens just cannot snatch away the credit from China of indigenously developing a robust EV industry and giving the world a hope to foster clean energy transition through wide EV adoption.

If geopolitics is to be accounted for, the EC ex-officio anti-subsidy investigation – initiated by the Commission itself rather than in response to industry complaints – too is a geopolitical move to buy time to improve Europe’s future competitiveness and assert its “green industrial leadership” even this agenda slows the pace of the EU green transition.

Data has shown that duties are unlikely to make a significant impact on the market share gains of Chinese EV makers in Europe. But what the EU tariffs could do is that they would stoke divisions within the bloc and handcuff its climate ambitions. The US and Canada’s sweeping tariffs on China’s electric cars too indeed would delay the global sustainable transition.

Climate change is a global challenge. It must not fall victim to anyone’s geopolitical ambitions. This cold war for green industrial leadership should be stopped immediately and focus should be given to dialogue and on exchanging experiences in developing green technologies if the world is to be secured from the unfathomable consequences of global warming, environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared at "Express Tribune

November 29, 2024

CIIE: A symbol of globalization and an antithesis of protectionism

By: Azhar Azam

At the opening ceremony of the seventh China International Import Expo (CIIE), Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a keynote address and underscored the need for upholding, expanding and upgrading China's opening-up, stating it was the only effective way to promote lasting peace, stability, development and prosperity in the face of rising unilateralism and protectionism and the backlash against globalization.

High-standard opening-up has been a key feature of China's economic journey. Over the past six editions of the CIIE, companies from 173 countries and regions have made appearances with transactions of more than $424 billion and over 2,400 products, technologies and services debuting annually.

The sheer size of the CIIE is so appealing that chief executive officers see even their firms' participation as "very rewarding" for it presents them with the opportunities to showcase their latest innovations to one of the world's largest and fastest-growing consumer markets.

Hailed as an access point for international businesses looking to make a footing or expand their market presence in the large Chinese market, last year's expo saw the largest-ever delegation from America comprising more than 200 U.S. companies such as Ford and Tesla, among others. This reflected their approach to distance themselves from their country's unilateralist and protectionist policies and bracket their interests with China's development.

The number of exhibitors for this year's expo alone has hit a new record with participation from 152 countries, regions and international organizations. With another record 297 Fortune-500 companies and industry leaders set to attend the exhibition, China is increasingly becoming a hub for global business development activities.

The 2024 Investment Promotion Conference in support of this year's edition has already taken place, attracting attendees including consular officials from Argentina, Mexico and the Czech Republic as well as delegates from foreign investment promotion agencies. The successful event again describes the interest of foreign officials and companies to invest in China and their trust in the country's openness.

China's opening-up isn't just about removing trade barriers, boosting and facilitating economic and trade cooperation or encouraging investment; by holding such exhibitions, Beijing is also opening up minds and hearts to new ideas and cultural exchanges, bringing countries and regions closer to each other. From this perspective, the CIIE is a platform of innovation, cross-cultural interactions and transnational harmony, all of which are crucial to bringing stability, development and prosperity to the world.

The exhibition is taking place in a complex geopolitical environment where the escalation of regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, poses serious threats to international security and economic growth. At this critical time, orchestration of the expo delivers a treasured message of cooperation, peace and mutual coexistence with China's openness presenting an invaluable opportunity to global nations and companies to make or expand their footprint in one of the world's largest consumer markets.

The Enterprise and Business Exhibition, comprising six major areas – including an Innovation Incubation Special Section, aiming to provide opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises – will remain the cornerstone of this year's edition, offering an equal level-playing field to the companies from developed and developing nations to showcase their innovations and promote their products.

Due to the expo's potential to grow their businesses, global industry groups and countries are keen to take advantage of this international business development opportunity that would allow exporters to exhibit their brands and products in one of the world's largest trade shows.

According to the International Trade Center, since its onset, the CIIE has been providing an "unparalleled" platform to hundreds of small businesses from dozens of developing countries to connect to the colossal Chinese market. This year too, more than 120 complimentary booths have been provided to exhibitors from 37 least-developed countries to familiarize them with the high-quality demand in China and facilitate their efforts to push their exports to Beijing.

The CIIE is promoting healthy competition among companies to foster a green transition. In the 2023 expo, 40 awards were presented to the winners with their technologies in the fields of green hydrogen, energy efficiency and clean energy innovation which were showcased in one of the booths.

Since its unveiling in 2018, the expo has been working as an antithesis of protectionism and unilateralism, becoming a symbol of trade liberalization and economic globalization. Due to these essential characteristics, the CIIE continues to garner the support of countries from all over the world, providing an opportunity to jointly work for peace, development and prosperity while serving as a platform for China's high-standard of opening-up and representing Beijing's unshakable confidence to share the rewards of its economic dynamism with the rest of the world.

My article that first appeared the "CGTN"

November 8, 2024

Lammy’s ‘progressive realism’ kicks off with his China visit

By: Azhar Azam

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy wrapped up an official trip to China as part of the new Labor government’s effort to take a "pragmatic" approach to engage Beijing, reconsolidating relations with the world's second largest economy from scratch.

Under the Conservatives, China-UK “golden era” relationship towards the end of 2020 shifted into a higher gear as Theresa May in 2018 visited Beijing and discussed cooperation with Xi Jinping. Boris Johnson, despite America’s pressure to block Huawei, in 2020 allowed Chinese telecom giant to operate in the UK on a limited level, seen as a “strategic defeat” for the US.

But ecstasy didn’t last long with London, just six months later, banning purchase of new Huawei equipment and announcing to root out its 5G networks by 2027, shoving both countries into a vicious circle of a diplomatic war. A UK parliamentary committee’s recommendation to counter Beijing’s “‘whole-of-state’ threat” poured gasoline on a fiery relationship. This “violent” shift from “courtship to aversion” was Tories “biggest mistake” that tipped China-UK ties into further ambiguity.

Things seem to have slightly changed with new Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a call with Xi in April sought to forge a long-term and closer economic relations with China and work together on international challenges, hoping to have "open, frank and honest discussions" on disagreements.

This helped melt the ice between two large economies, making some significant developments as UK's Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly planning to visit China in early next year to mull over resumption of Economic and Financial Dialogue with Beijing.

Britain's economy, after falling into recession H2-2023, bounced back, posting an average of 0.6% growth H1-2024. As China-UK trade dropped 21.1% to £86.5 billion in 2023 and Beijing accounted for just 0.2% of total UK FDI in 2022, Starmer is seeing an opportunity to strengthen trade and investment ties with China and build on this year's economic gains. Reeves remarks Britain benefits from trade links including with China, exports and imports and FDI suggest London's inclination towards an economic dialogue with Beijing.

It's the same mission former Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair embarked on two decades earlier, predicting China to become the world's largest economy in the next 20-30 years. By augmenting trade and investment relations, he paved the way for the “golden era,” which lasted for more than a decade before collapsing over US edginess of China’s remarkable economic and technological advancement. Those heydays may be hard to emanate but impart diplomatic wisdom on how to rebuild the relationship.

Other instances also suggest that London is cozying up to China. For example, UK Trade Secretary Jonathon Raynolds recently slammed previous government for doing little to build China-UK relationship and sought "more engagement with China,” ruling out imposing tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.

Labor’s approach is hinged on “progressive realism,” a fusion of policies adopted by two Britain’s former foreign secretaries, Robin Cook and Ernest Bevin, who respectively brought climate action and human rights to the diplomatic fore and helped create NATO and the country's accession to military alliance.

Setting out his vision of “progressive realism,” which American author Robert William claimed to have coined in 2006, Lammy in April criticized UK’ China policy had “oscillated wildly over the past 14 years” of Tory rule, urging Britain to “adopt a more consistent strategy, one that simultaneously challenges, competes against, and cooperates with China.”

This strategy pursues a realist approach to advance progressive goals rather than just confining to disagreements. Lammy's doctrine is being widely vilified; it could enable Britain to explore realistic means of cooperation with the world's largest producer of clean energy, solar panels and electric cars that without engagement isn't possible.

The “broad consensus,” Lammy wrote, “economic globalization would inevitably breed liberal democratic values proved false. Instead, democracies have become more economically dependent on authoritarian states…China provides a particularly stark case.” "In today’s world, Western governments must partner with the Global South," he added, acknowledging they “undermined” the sovereignty of weaker states.

While this economic dependence, with Beijing’s exports also relying on foreign demand, has been reciprocal, The West itself is responsible for decline in share of world trade between democracies between 1997 and 2022. As the West squandered trillions of dollars in wars and operations to change regimes it deemed were incompatible with its liberal values, China spent those years in producing and flooding the world market with cheap goods.

As the West retreated over economic fallouts of wars after killing hundreds of thousands of people, triggering antipathy for it in the Global South, China became aggressive and channeled trillions of dollars in infrastructure development across the developing world. The West has only itself to blame for China ending the era of US "hegemony.”

With America focusing on Indo-Pacific to counter China, Britain is being warned against consequences of any retrenchment from region out of UK new Defense Secretary John Healey’s comments last year that Britain can’t be a “strong military force in Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic simultaneously” and “there needs to be a realism about military commitments.”

Both Britain and Europe are cautious. Over US sea-change, the EU is being urged to “defend Europe with less America” as Britain prioritizes “NATO First” and limits its engagement in the Indo-Pacific to "advancing technology (and) developing military capabilities.”

China's role in net zero and world trade is driving Labor into maintaining a “constructive" relationship with China even in areas where both countries’ "viewpoints" diverge. UK government's readout – accentuating significance of "working together" on global challenges and commitment to promote "secure and resilient growth through increased trade and investment" – suggests Lammy’s realism has come into play in Labor's foreign policy. How his vision will meet the progressive ends though remains yet to be seen.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in "Express Tribune"

November 4, 2024

Great power struggle for undersea dominance


Laid on the ocean floor, undersea cables are arteries of international communication, digitalization and globalization and the lifeblood of the global economy. These 600 fiber-optic cables, activated or planned, spanning 1.4 million kilometers carry 95% of global data by transmitting $10 trillion every day while offering the fastest and reliable route.

These thin wires, as wide as a garden hose, are owned by a consortium of parties because of high costs associated with laying of new undersea ecosystems. Over heightened risk of being damaged by natural disasters, fishing nets, ship anchors and sharks, there is a greater need for interstate cooperation to protect the flow of information they electronify.

But by proclaiming principles that aspire to advance cooperation between a handful of countries to “promote selection of secure and verifiable subsea cable providers,” Washington is stonewalling cooperation on an area that delivers international bandwidth, necessary for global digital transition.

A blend of America’s megaphone and coercive diplomacy, through which it denigrates China and strong-arms allies and telcos to dissuade them from partnering with Chinese companies, and geopolitics around information superhighways, underpinning the global economy and finance, to retain its subsea hegemony could stoke tensions with Beijing for the plan's ulterior goal is to phase one of the fastest-growing companies, China’s HMN Technologies, out of the market.

America’s SubCom, Japan’s NEC and France’s Alcatel historically dominated the sector before a seismic shift took place as HMN Tech (then Huawei Marine Networks) entered the fray in 2008 and disturbed status quo, becoming an important player in the market over the next 15 years.

Emergence of a Chinese firm shook the US Department of Justice whose Team Telecom in 2020 raised national security concerns about China’s “sustained efforts to acquire sensitive personal data of millions of US persons.” In 2021, Washington finally added HMN to its entity list.

A Guardian’s investigation of documents disclosed to it by NSA’s whistleblower Edward Snowden, in 2013 revealed the UK’s spy agency, GCHQ, had tapped into more than 200 fiber-optic cables to access a huge volume of communications including between entirely innocent people, sharing sensitive personal information with its American peer.

NSA and other US intelligence agencies have been eavesdropping on its own Five Eyes’ allies such as Australian and New Zealand and snooping on American people including protesters, racial justice activists, journalists, political commentators, campaign donors and Congressmen; there is no clear evidence that subsea cables are being tapped or sabotaged by any country, let it be US, China or Russia.

Recent reports have seen such threats as overblown. Labeling concerns vis-à-vis "tapping into cables to derive, copy or obfuscate data" as “highly unlikely,” a European report in 2022 found “no publicly available and verified reports” indicating deliberate attacks including from China. The threat scenarios “could be exaggerated and suggest a substantial risk of threat inflation and fearmongering,” it said.

Still, US unabated offensive against Chinese company continued as it through incentives and pressure on consortium members including warnings and threats of sanctions and exports controls flipped the contract of Southeast Asia-Middle East-Western Europe-6 (SEA-ME-WE-6) cable, snaking its way from Singapore to France, to SubCom.

Per Reuters, it was one of the six private undersea cable deals in Asia-Pacific where the US government had intervened to prevent HMN from winning or forced rerouting or abandonment of cable deals, unveiling Washington’s innate impulse to monopolize undersea ecosystems and marking a beginning of underwater geopolitical rivalry.

Yet China struck back through a $500 million Europe-Middle East-Asia internet cable. Known as PEACE (Pakistan and East Asia Connecting Europe) cable, the project directly competes with SEA-ME-WE-6 and supersedes its rival project with a planned length of 25,000+ km against latter’s 21,700 km, providing even higher bandwidth.

US efforts to control subsea cables shone as market share of HMN, which had built or repaired almost 25% of world's cables and supplied 18% of them in the last four years through 2022, is expected to contract to mere 7%. The top beneficiary of US interventionism is its SubCom that has grabbed only 12% of contracts but accounts for a whopping 40% of cables laid.

At the core of this competition is America’s fear of conceding a critical component of the digital economy to China. US officials have voiced concern the Chinese repair ships could be used for spying; there is no evidence of such an activity either. While some have dubbed submarine cables as “a surveillance gold mine" for world intelligence agencies, most experts believe the biggest risk isn't espionage, sabotage or even rogue anchors rather an uneven spread of cable infrastructure that threatens the very promise of digital equity and demands East-West cooperation to end this digital injustice, especially with the Global South.

For decades, America, France and Japan dominated the global underwater ecosystem. Wary of losing their ascendancy, they are pooling efforts to exorcize Chinese demon and retain influence over submarine cables. The involvement of security alliances such as Quad "to support and strengthen quality undersea cable networks in the Indo-Pacific" and Biden's push to bolster cooperation in the region on cybersecurity including undersea cables and whisk regional submarine plans away from China are beseeching Beijing to respond, elevating risk of kicking off a cold war under the sea.

Multination cooperation has been the catalyst of submarine cable expansion and is essential for the future of the digital economy. But this kiasu approach of asserting a closed group's unwater dominance is threatening to black out collaboration and divide the world in two geopolitical or ideological blocs. This simmering struggle for subsea hegemony should be lulled before it boils up and compounds global challenges, being faced by a fragmented world.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in "Express Tribune"