From abstract threat to an existential challenge, climate change has sped through the planet – wrecking ecosystems, lives, social structures and livelihoods particularly of vulnerable countries and small islands.
The world’s descent to this point isn’t abrupt – it’s been gradual and deliberate. Unchecked fossil fuel combustion, industrial expansion and exploitation of natural resources over the last two centuries engendered a phenomenon, called global warming. The scorching heat accelerated climate-induced disasters such as droughts, water scarcity, wildfires, floods, biodiversity loss and spread of infectious diseases.
Pakistan is highly exposed to climate change. Arguably the worst in its history, the 2022 floods submerged a third of the country, affected 33 million people, resulted in 1,700 deaths and caused $30 billion in damages and economic losses, according to the Word Bank.
Islamabad has sharply climbed up the ladder vis-à-vis weather extremes. It was ranked at #5 in countries most affected by the extreme climatic events by GermanWatch's Climate Risk Index 2020. The country now tops the list, mainly due to its monsoon-driven exceptionally high relative economic losses between June to September 2022.
A climate catastrophe is in the offing as climate-related calamities have triggered 802 fatalities including 203 children in the ongoing rainy season, mostly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), aside from wreaking havoc on infrastructure, crops and livestock.
Glacial melt led to creation of thousands of glacial lakes in northern areas. The process, kindled by excessive heat, sharply elevated the specter of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These sudden events – over their potential to cause significant downstream damage by releasing millions of cubic meters of water and debris in a few hours – are a persistent threat to life, infrastructure and livelihoods of 7 million people in KP and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Pakistan’s government often singles out climate injustice and “lopsided allocation” – receiving $2.8 billion from international creditors against pledges of $10 billion – of green funding for its failure on climate action. Yet it remains unwilling to address its own governance weaknesses and step up climate adaptation efforts.
For instance, the UN-backed $37 million GLOF-II project faced criticism for failing to contribute to disaster preparedness and deliver early warnings, partially because the funds were allegedly misused. Other projects were also accused of being plagued by institutional incompetence and corruption or eroded in value over unimpeded deforestation.
Similarly, poor access of climate-smart technologies to farmers and major policy distortions such as in wheat procurement and inequitable subsidies continue to block Pakistan's agricultural transformation and harm rural communities.
At the COP27, loss and damage fund was hailed as a quantum leap in climate finance but as of June, 27 countries had pledged just $789 million – a minuscule fraction of hundreds of billions required annually
Developed countries authored the climate destiny of vulnerable nations; the government mustn't dawdle, watching Pakistan sleepwalk into climate catastrophe. It has to iron out cracks in its governance.
For Pakistan to imprint a sustainable impact on climate change, it shouldn't rely squarely on international climate financing and must mobilize domestic resources. Rather than merely shifting blame on the wealthy nations, it should expand the network of technology providers (largely concentrated in Punjab) across Pakistan and encourage private investment in renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure to boost productivity and lower emissions.
Establishing effective risk-sharing mechanisms such as crop insurance, promoting initiatives like issuance of green bonds and experimenting alternative climate finance models for example debt-for-climate swaps should be expedited to protecting farmers and generate climate finance.
The country’s energy mix is highly dominated by oil, gas and coal. Albeit shrinking, circular debt in the energy sector is both a threat to climate adaptation and economic stability, butting heads with terrorism and insurgency for the country’s biggest challenge.
Considering Pakistan’s economic fragility and tiny forex reserves, its heavy reliance on fossil fuels could be acceptable only as short-term necessity to foster transition toward long-term climate resilience.
Still, the government can’t lurk behind climate injustice to evade climate action. This will be akin to courting disaster. Fixing systemic inefficiencies such as low tax-to-GDP ratio, strengthening accountability mechanisms and controlling transmission and distribution losses and unproductive subsidy regimes could create a fiscal space to shore up Pakistan’s climate resilience.
In the coming decades, Pakistan is projected to stay amongst the group of countries most vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather. The country’s high exposure to torrential downpour, floods, cloudbursts and GLOFs urges a collective, nonpartisan national response.
By lacing up climate action with climate injustice or resorting to cosmetic measures – viewed by experts as taxation levies framed as climate mitigation efforts while climate adaptation funding has declined from 40% to 10% in a decade – the government shouldn't pretend to act.
The monsoon that once whispered of bliss and euphoria now fetches pain and affliction. What was rejoiced as a boon is being mourned as a doom. Climate change isn’t alone responsible for this tragic reversal. Chronic Governance failures too have magnified this crisis. Addressing systemic weaknesses is crucial to boost climate adaptation and build a climate-resilient Pakistan.
*My article (unedited) that first appeared in Asia Times