The Yemeni Quagmire

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)":
https://www.globalresearch.ca/yemeni-quagmire/5711486

A Saudi-led coalition has rejected the enforcement of a “self-administration rule” by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen and called on all the parties to honor the Riyadh Agreement that includes the formation of a technocrat government with equal representation.

Abu Dhabi-backed separatist group earlier scrapped a peace deal with Riyadh-backed government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and declared a state of emergency in its controlled areas including the port city of Aden. For some time, both sides were building up their forces to resume infighting.

Council rationalized the move in the face of government’s “mismanagement, misgovernance, especially in south Yemen, which has been Houthi-less for four years now.”

It additionally accused the Hadi administration for shirking its responsibilities to implement the peace deal however welcomed Saudi Arabia’s role and pledged on “responding to any initiatives it may propose.”

STC withdrawal from the pact is a crippling blow to Riyadh peace deal that was signed in November and hailed by the Kingdom as a major step towards a wider political solution.

Though the treaty drew the two warring parties on a consensus agreement of establishing a unity government, STC’s dissolution of the accord before its implementation could lead into a collapse of the Riyadh Agreement.

At least the anguish in the ranks of internationally recognized Hadi administration tells that the deal might come to a tragic end.

Decrying the violation, the Yemeni foreign minister Muhammad Al-Hadhrami threatened "The so-called transitional council will bear alone the dangerous and catastrophic consequences for such an announcement."

With the latest wearisome rows between the two ostensible allies, one of the world’s poorest countries can drift into a deeper and shaper chaos. But it wasn’t unexpected.

In January, the STC had pulled out of the committees that were responsible for the implementation of the November peace deal, protesting against the violence in Shabwa province linked with the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Hadi’s al-Islah party.

The government dismisses the allegation but separatists’ complaints grind on, making the route of negotiations bumpy and obscuring the fate of arrangement.

All this ensues as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) battle out with Iran-backed Houthis in a separate conflict who in early 2015 overran and captured the capital Sana’a – ousting the Hadi administration and forcing it to declare Aden its de facto capital.

It was the moment that herded Riyadh for military intervention, which didn’t do anything good for the battle-weary country as it continued to grip into further dissent and discord.

After years-long intense shelling, bombardment and fierce fighting that brought no significant change on the ground, Saudi Arabia is exhausted. It now seeks a safe exit from the enervating Yemen war to focus on its fast-flagging economy, being hit hard by plunging oil prices and the Covid-19.

The coronavirus outbreak unbridled a sporadic opportunity to the Kingdom to move away from military adventurism to a political solution. Mining some good out of the evil, the war-tired Saudi-led coalition last month announced a unilateral ceasefire of two weeks in Yemen.

Saudi peddling of the proclamation in a comeback to UN Secretary General’s call and to “reaching a political settlement” and “comprehensive and lasting ceasefire agreement” with Houthis – implied about its remodeled strategy in its neighborhood.

The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen on April 24 extended ceasefire in Yemen by one month to bolster its efforts of containing coronavirus and renew commitment for “to reach a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Yemen.”

As the Houthis has rejected the extension and exacted to lift the air and sea blockades of their controlled areas before agreeing to a truce, the dismissal multiplies the risks of increased violence and the fears that the war is going to reoccupy the nation.

While the armed faction should carefully observe the country’s vulnerability to the coronavirus and forge ahead for a ceasefire and political dialogue – the Coalition must also preclude stage-managing the crisis by apparently withdrawing the troops but firing the conflict by hinging more on the proxies.

UAE, the key Coalition member, in July last year formally announced its exit from the Yemeni riddle and started to hand over responsibilities to its domestic ally STC.

Riyadh would most likely follow the footsteps of Abu Dhabi and withdraw from the devastated state by delegating the task of confronting Houthis to the STC and forces loyal to Hadi administration and engage itself as a political negotiator in the Yemeni conundrum.

The strategy, if pursued, won’t provide any respite to the peace and stability in Yemen, expressly when there is obstinate spat between the two disparate allies, STC and Hadi government.

Last year, the sky-high tensions pressed the latter to accuse UAE of backing a “coup” after new skirmishes flared in August 2019. Following that, Abu Dhabi had to relinquish some key positions in Aden to Riyadh to pave the way for a dialogue between the government and separatists.

Talking about the legitimacy of the Hadi government, Head of the Yemen Department at the London-based Next Century Foundation Catherine Shakdam said “There was an understanding that if he wasn't supported by the international community, then de facto sovereignty would fall onto the Houthi movement."

It is hence in the best interest of all the stakeholders to put a stop to this deadly conflict – which has swiped the lives of more than 100,000 human lives and pushed millions to the brink of famine – and settle their disputes through consultation and political dialogue.

Amid COVID-19, Africa sees surge in terrorist activities

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-26/Amid-COVID-19-Africa-sees-surge-in-terrorist-activities-Q0Dixe1ykE/index.html

The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) on Tuesday lent a grim caveat – cautioning that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could soar from 135 million in 2019 to 265 million in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Africa with 73 million accounted for more than half of the starved population worldwide last year; it would likely be the most affected landmass in 2020 too.

As the deadly lung disease continues to cause tragic human losses and blow up social and economic order across the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on April 17 that Africa could see an its GDP to contract by 1.25% this year – the worst reading on record.

WFP and IMF predictions followed an African Union (AU) study that earlier this month projected some 20 million jobs were at risk in the continent as a result of the intensive economic blow by the Covid19. Even though Africa has generally escaped from the lethal ramifications of the pathogen, the impact on the employment would be staggering.

In addition to experiencing acute food insecurity and several socioeconomic vulnerabilities, the surge of terrorist activities in Africa – particularly the collaborative attacks by the offshoots of Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the parts of Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin region and the Horn of Africa and expanding reach of Al-Shabaab in Somalia and East Africa – pose a significant threat to peace and security in the continent.

People of the impoverished region have paid a high cost of the towering terrorist activities. In February, the UN said amid a devastating rise of five-fold attacks that killed more than 4,000 civilians and military personnel in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger since 2016 – survivors were badly needing safety, food and water “everywhere.”

While the coronavirus pandemic drags the unabridged global attention, the Boko Haram has also stepped up attacks across various parts of West Africa including Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and restive northern part of Egyptian Sinai Peninsula.

Armed groups are visibly taking the advantage of the Covid-19 to expand their influence, spur violence and recruit members.

The viral respiratory illness has a silver lining for the terrorist organizations in Africa. The killing of three Chinese nationals this month in the mining area of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) retold that the extremists took the benefit of Congolese government deflected attention to the coronavirus.

Amid declining GDP, intense job losses, plunging oil prices, shutdown economic activities, stringent social distancing measures and rising terrorism – the 1.3 billion African people are sadistically exposed not only to the scourge of hunger and poverty but also at the risk of falling soft victims to the terrorist outfits.

The worsening circumstances provide a gold-plated opportunity to the radicals to exploit the grouses of the deprived people and incite them for an armed resistance against their governments.

The lack of access to services such as education, healthcare, justice and security delivers an ideal environment for the insurgents to intersect the marginalized groups and buttress their violent extremism.

Brutal and diabolical killing of at least 52 people in northern Mozambique on April 7 for not joining the ranks of the terrorists recapped that Africans are being lured and forced by the branches of the Islamic State.

If the lockdown prolongs for a longer time, there is growing risk that the terrorists might succeed in enrolling the underprivileged and infuriated youth bulges.

The beheading or shooting of the victims is viewed a stronger threat to the country’s 44 billion euro Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) program. It further unveiled the extremists’ strategy to disrupt the peace and prosperity in the Southern African state that is trying to elevate the living standards of its population by attracting foreign investments.

General Stephen Townsend, the commander of US Africa Command earlier this month warned that the terrorist were eying the pandemic as godsend to take advantage from distracted global attention.

“While we might like to pause our operations in Somalia because of the Coronavirus, the leaders of al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab and ISIS have announced that they see this crisis as an opportunity to further their terrorist agenda so we will continue to stand with and support our African partners," Townsend said.

Africa is surely seeing a spike in the coronavirus patients with more than 25,000 confirmed cases and over 1,200 deaths. But don’t forget that it only the forthright challenge Africa is facing; the climbing outbreak is accompanied by the growing terrorism.

On one side, the African people are bottled up by destitution, malnutrition, hunger and now the Covid19 and on the other; they are massacred by the terrorists for rejecting their proposal of armed resistance.

The increased terror attacks by the affiliates of Islamic State and Al-Qaeda describes that Africa is becoming the new epicenter of extremism. This strategic and geographical of the radicals shift is precarious to the pandemic-hit Africa.

Surely, extremism needs to be decimated by strengthening the regional forces but some joint, tangible efforts should also be wielded to culminate the longstanding grievances of the regional people – without which, the dream of sterilizing Africa from terrorism can’t be achieved.

Why Has the Price of Crude Oil Skydived?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)"
https://www.globalresearch.ca/why-has-the-price-of-crude-oil-skydived/5710691

On the back of the unprecedented supply glut, sapped demand and filled storage amid the coronavirus pandemic – for the first time in history, the prices of the US crude oil futures tanked to a negative territory, indicating the producers would pay traders for taking the oil off their hands.

Prices on the May contract expiring Tuesday for the US-benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), dipped 321% to -40.32/barrel while the global standard, Brent crude futures pared brief gains and edged about 9.5% lower at $25.41/barrel.

The June and July WTI contracts also dropped roughly 18% to $20.43/barrel and 11% to $26.18/barrel.

As the spread between May and June contracts, known as front and second month – is now the widest in the history, the downward trend for June and July contracts insinuated the mounting uncertainty and dying investors’ hopes about reopening of the US economy in near future .

Initially, it was disagreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia on production cuts at the OPEC+ forum that exacerbated tensions in the oil industry and stoked price and share war between them. By the time, the two energy rivals downplayed differences and signed an agreement; the Covid-19 went on the rampage to trigger abysmal anxieties in the US crude markets.

The ecstatic US President Donald Trump, claimed to have brokered the deal, popped up on twitter to thank Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz – terming the agreement “big” and “Great deal for all!” that “will save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States.”

But with the pandemic doling out a severe blow to major driver of the US economy, the settlement between Riyadh and Moscow looks antediluvian as the price setback coupled with shelved energy demand poses a significant threat to the jobs of more than 10 million workers associated with the oil industry. Many of whom are already being terminated or furloughed.

So even the historic deal – to steeply cut the oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) and backstop the value decline – did little to stabilize the markets and cannot prevent the WTI from a free fall. That’s because the reduction was not as per the expectations of the president himself and global analyst firms that believed it to be at least 20 mb/d to resuscitate the industry.

How Washington drove Saudi Arabia into the deal is controversial too. Trump’s push for a production cut was backed by a coalition of US Congressmen that in a threatening letter on April 8, sought the Kingdom “to do its part to bring stability – not further volatility – to global crude oil markets.”

The frictional tone citing threats of suspending the US-Saudi economic and military collaboration and recalling American support to counter “Iran’s malign activity” – emphasized the traditional pattern of Washington’s bulling behavior toward its allies to achieve its interests.

Additionally, the price at which the oil should be sold is vital for the US shale sellers. For the American oil companies, anything less than $40/barrel is perilous for their operations sustainability. If the price of the crude drops below that mark, some producers may decide to stop pumping and the firms may head for bankruptcy. That’s what is happening right now.

Head of shale research Artem Abramov at Rystad Energy says “$30 is already quite bad, but once you get to $20 or even $10, it's a complete nightmare." The comments pronounces how crucial it is for the US companies that oil remains at least around $40/barrel otherwise they won’t be able to survive and many of them could go bankrupt.

OPEC in its most recent monthly statement on April 16 said “The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March.” Contago describes a situation that refers to oversupply and encourages traders to store oil to sell later on, hoping the crudes price to rally.

But with the wiping out US storage capacity, the traders won’t be any more able to buy more oil or even sell existing stocks in sharply condensing domestic oil market. The buyers of front month contracts would hence be forced to take physical delivery of the oil at the end of May that they can’t so they have to sell it now at any price.

Chief commodities analyst at leading Swedish SEB Group Bjarne Schieldrop confirmed the US storage issue referring “very front-loaded” contango, stating “The curves are saying we have a big problem with the storage of oil right now.”

Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research also doubts the US storage capacity to endure the flooding oil and believes that could be full to brim. “The implication is that storage might be more full than thought, or that buyers expect it to be very soon.”

All the US key oil facilities, including its main storage hub and delivery point Cushing, Oklahoma, are weighed down with the excess barrels. Since the end of February, the stockpiles at the largest oil-storage tank farm in the world have increased by nearly 50% to 55 million barrels against its working storage capacity of 76 million barrels. If the critical facility is full, a trader said it would be a “disaster.”

The US needs the consumption to rebound in short term. If it doesn’t and the airlines keep on grounded, cars remain garaged and refineries stay idle for a longer period – there would be tremendous selling pressure on all the traders holding the contracts, adding more weight on the Trump administration to provide support and reopen economy amid pandemic.

US catty and splenetic behavior is detrimental to global cooperation

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-14/U-S-catty-and-splenetic-behavior-detrimental-to-global-cooperation-PG2Ca0CcA8/index.html

The Covid-19 is such an enormous threat to the mankind and global economy that it obliges all rivals to shelve the rivalries, all nationalists to forego nationalism and all the protectionists to suspend the protectionism at least temporarily and embrace a stronger, unvarying international cooperation for the protection of their citizens and economies.

Despite populist backlash from some Western quarters, it is still an era of breakneck globalization that has lifted the living standards of millions of people. While the phenomenon continues to connect people and make them dependent on each other for their economic and technological growth through multifaceted cooperation, it also prevents some aggressive and dominance-seeking countries to assert their hegemony or impose the totalitarian decisions on other sovereign nations.

The global cooperation, by pooling the wisdoms and sharing the experiences, is therefore the one-stop solution for international community to put forward a concerted and determined international response – in an open and transparent manner through mutual understanding, trust and support – to the novel coronavirus outbreak.

A report titled “Strengthening multi-level cooperation to fight the pandemic” published by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) noted as the Covid-19 transforms into a global crisis affecting virtually every country, its impact on public health would have far-reaching implications ranging from individual livelihoods to political and economic structures.

It summarized China’s experiences – from implementation of the orthodox coordinating, mobilizing and communicating techniques to introduction of inventive big data, mobile apps and artificial intelligence applications – to control the disease and provided valuable suggestions on global cooperation to fight the virus and its economic fallout.

Of course, the objective of sharing Beijing’s experiences was not to urge global nations to follow Chinese method of handling the disease but to help them better understand how it fought and defeated the virus, enabling governments better analyze and contrive an effective Covid-19 strategy in accordance with their legal and political backgrounds.

Based on its findings, the report lined up a series of recommendations including activating multilateral platforms such as G-20; supporting the World Health Organization (WHO), allowing it to play a greater role in global cooperation and establishing a governance mechanism for international coordination on public health measures; and protecting global value, supply and industrial chains.

Recommendations also urged China and the US to strengthen dialogue and reach consensus on trade in medical supplies, support the World Trade Organization (WTO) to play an effective role in responding to the epidemic by promoting trade facilitation for emergency goods and cooperation across supply chains and support multinational cooperation on drug and vaccine development.

Although the US President Donald Trump lately scorched WHO labeling the international health body “Chinese centric” and accused it for giving “faulty recommendation” and is again threatening to withdraw from WTO over losing “so many cases” – the role of both the institutions is crucial in protecting the human lives initially from the pandemic and then from the economic consequences in post-coronavirus world.

While Trump’s criticism on the WTO is a blunt effort to influence the organization and coerce its appellate tribunal to resolve cases in the US favor – his disapproval of the WHO and the accusations on China for camouflaging the numbers by some other US officials, lack both evidence and prudence.

In an interview, the Republican Senator Rick Scott claimed that the American public will want to boycott Chinese goods after the pandemic as they “clearly killed Americans with their actions.” In his prior article, he called for congressional investigation into the WHO for serving “as a puppet to for the Chinese Communist Party.”

The US officials’ reproof on China and the WHO is detrimental to global cooperation in defeating the Covid-19. They are overtly trying to politicize the outbreak by deliberately overlooking the fact that China so far is the only country that has effectively controlled the pandemic and prevented its resurgence albeit being terrifically gripped by the virus.

Since the start of the outbreak, the WHO too has worked hard by supporting the countries to build their capacity to prepare and respond, has provided accurate information and fought the “infodemic” through issuance of technical guidance, arranged training and mobilization of the health workers, accelerated research and development and is ensuring the critical supplies to reach the frontline health workers.

Former Jennings Randolph fellow at The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and professor of political science at Georgia State University Dr. William Long acknowledged “China, for its part, gave more timely notice of the outbreak” and the WHO too “made a timely finding” of the disease. He also believed that the spread of the infectious diseases can foster opportunities for international cooperation.

But Washington’s ostensible belief that it is the so-called custodian of the world and thus has the right to dominate all the countries and international organizations is the real hitch in the fruition of the global cooperation. Though the Trump administration has long been wary of trade deficit with China, it now seeks Beijing to direct all the medical supplies to Washington.

The attitude shows that for the US, the life and health of its people is important than those who live in Africa, Asia and even Europe. But for China, it tantamount to racism and the protection of people across the world was equally vital. Chinese donation of medical items, which to date reached to a total of 127 countries and four international organizations, emphasizes its uniform approach to shield all the nationalities without any favoritism.

In addition to this, the cooperation between China and world during the pandemic including the deployment of 13 medical teams to 11 countries and the commercial procurement of RMB 10.2 billion of anti-epidemic supplies by 58 countries and regions, spelled out the importance of global cooperation and the utility of globalization.

While some US politicians, governors and congressmen cried out about acute shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) for doctors and nurses, it is imperative to know that China’s industrial capacity has already exceeded the pre-pandemic production of manufacturing 200 million masks daily. This imbalance in demand and supply can only be achieved through bilateral cooperation.

By the way, it is the US tariffs on the Chinese masks, gloves, goggles and thermometers that hampered the healthcare industry in China. The people and politicians in the US should first question the Trump administration – which still maintains tariffs of about $360 billion on all Chinese goods, slightly lower than the prior $400 billion – as why it ignited a trade war that earlier directly impacted the US farmers and importers and now indirectly is overawing the American people.

The scale and unforeseen consequences of the Covid-19 can only be contained through altruism and global cooperation among all nations and international institutions however the cause as big as the coronavirus necessitates the US to abandon its catty and splenetic behavior toward China.

US economy poised to make a hard landing

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-11/U-S-economy-poised-to-make-a-hard-landing-PB8Cvcac7e/index.html

Due to the catastrophic fallouts of the Covid-19, the credence and state of the US economy is shaking ominously and it has lost the confidence of its businessmen. A survey by The Conference Board revealed that more than 80% of the America CEOs said that their business has been or will be substantially impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.

The US President Donald Trump wants to reopen the economy with a “big bang” once the death toll from the disease plummets. But the pessimism among the US chief executives, which has declined to the levels of the Great Recession with half of the executives seeing economy and industry to recover in no earlier than six months, poses a stark challenge to his post-virus ambitions.

While a whopping 97% of the executives as of early April, as compared to 70% for the month earlier, believed that the US economic conditions had deteriorated and were significantly worse than six months ago – the plans by over 54% of them to layoff or furlough the workers or slash the wages, salaries or benefits tells of their suspicion about quick restoration of the US economy.

The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Thursday claimed that “100 percent immediate expensing across the board” could temp the US companies back from China. Nevertheless if the anxieties among the domestic entrepreneurs continued to intensify, it could instead heave more American firms out of the country.

On March 31, the other closely watched review by the member-driven think tank about consumer sentiment showed that worried Americans were worried about the US economy and how their personal finances will fare. The Index dropped 12.6 to 120.0 in March versus a month earlier – its lowest level since June 2017.

The plunge in the consumer trust wasn’t a temporary shock – rather was “in line with a severe contraction” and further “declines are sure to follow,” said Lynn Franco Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board about the preliminary results the cutoff date of which was March 19.

Looking at the numbers, it is quite clear that the American businessmen and people didn’t had a great faith on their country’s economy even before the pandemic knocked the US. They prematurely smelled the imminent crisis that started to turn into an excruciating reality after an additional 3.3 million jobless workforce on March 26 joined the national tally in just one week.

Consumer spending roughly makes 70% of the US GDP so the blunt force trauma to the optimism of the biggest population segment was a telling indicator of what could happen to the world’s largest economy. Moreover, since the assessment largely relied on the data before the shutdowns and mass layoffs, economist at Harvard Kennedy School Megan Greene visualizes the next set of numbers “to be whole lot worse.”

It is in a sheer contrast to Trump’s frequent claims that the US economy is on historic high, perhaps greatest it’s ever been or “great American comeback” which were crossly disproved by the reality checks. The fetid truth is that the “envy of the world” he boasts of is yet to hit 3% growth whereas his most swanked assertions of creating 6.7 million jobs has been decimated by the Covid-19.

The top international asset management organizations are also skeptical of US economy rebound in the shorter period. Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), one of the leading global investment firms, predicted that the business closure and rising unemployment would likely contract the US GDP by 30% in the second quarter and 5% overall in in 2020.

Coronavirus outbreak has also triggered the Wall Street economists to rush out with shoddier predictions of economic disaster. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are some of those who forecast the US GDP to drop by 24% to 30% in next quarter that would be 2.5 times bigger than any decline in history.

Fitch on Thursday also presented a gloomy picture about the US economy. One of the Big-Three global ratings agency said that the country’s GDP probably slipped by about 1% in Q1-2020 and is shaping to fall further by 7% in Q2-2020, more than the height of the Global Financial Crisis, based on the assumptions of social distancing measures to remain intact in the next few week.

Trump administration would hope that its herculean economic $2.2 trillion package, claiming every average recipient to receive benefits equal to nearly three times, would spur consumer spending to spin the US economic downturn but unless the virus is defeated, the government couldn’t expect Americans to pushcart the US economy.

For the week ended on April 4, another 6.6 million Americans lost their jobs, scooping the three-week total to 16.8 million. The situation would deteriorate further when many of Americans will not have jobs even if the contagion ends because most of the jobs created over the last few years were “temp gig or contract jobs.”

The speed and the magnitude of the US labor market is sharper than seen in the recent history and suggested that more stronger blow to the US economy. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang described the outpouring as “We’re going to see something like 10 years of change in 10 weeks.”

Coronavirus pandemic has just started to take a toll on the US economy and it is in tatters. As other states in the country prepare for the closedown and the projected unemployment rate at 15% in April browbeats to surpass the size of the Great Recession, the US economy is poised to make a hard landing.

China emerges from health crisis to fast-track economic growth

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-23/China-emerges-from-health-crisis-to-fast-track-economic-growth-P6b5c6SJ6E/index.html

After there was no locally transmitted case of Covid-19 for a third consecutive day in China, it is a time not to unwind but to man up and revive the second largest economy of the world that has been hammered by the deadly germ known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Chinese government already stepped up its efforts to support jobs by fast-tracking targeted tax and fee cuts for the firms, reimbursing more unemployment insurance premiums to domestic companies that save jobs and subsidizing small organizations to hire college graduates on contract for longer than a year.

The ambitious fiscal measures coupled with slashing the operational costs and resumption of activities at key firms and projects – especially in manufacturing, construction, logistics, and public services – would resolve the critical understaffing issue and hold the key to give a stimulus to the country’s economy.

Local governments actions – to help top 9,138 manufacturers recruit 370,000 workers and arrange chartered trains, buses and flights to bring more than 4.1 million migrant workers back to work – would surely ease labor shortages and more importantly, lubricate the Chinese economic wheel to whirl at a rapid pace and reduce the people’s financial stress.

About 100 million migrant workers have so far come back to work after being staved off by the Covid-19 for more than two and a half months. The arrival of nearly 80% of the returnees to their hometown, ahead of the Spring Festival, is the reflection that echoed production is resuming and gaining momentum in the country.

Since the economic reforms, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) – estimated at over 38 million in 2019 – have been one of the major driving forces to the China’s national economy. Beijing’s special focus on small businesses, which would save these businesses up to 500 billion yuan through June – should bolster them and assist their government to streamline the state’s economy.

These far-reaching and production-friendly policies will considerably alleviate the pecuniary burdens on the manufacturing companies and would help to hack the unemployment rate that cruised to 6.2% in February. However, it shouldn’t be ignored that amid health crisis phase, Beijing still managed to create 1.08 million new urban jobs in the first two months of 2020.

While the global financial behemoths such as BlackRock and JPMorgan are ramping up their investments in China’s financial hub of Shanghai, the return of international basketball players including Jeremy Lin from the US is also the rising trust on Chinese well-fought victory against the Covid-19.

Other than a few US mouthpieces who characterized that the coronavirus outbreak had stoked an intense blow to the country’s economy, Chinese effort to snuff out the pandemic and blunt the Covid-19 largely drew applause from the top global health and economic regulator, the World Health Organization (WHO) and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Friday, the WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom again clapped Chinese success to controlling the outbreak in the hardest-hit Wuhan that was the proof the disease was not insurmountable. His urge – to tow inspiration from China’s fight against coronavirus that “provides hope for the rest of the world that even the most serious situation can be turned around” – should obliterate any leftover doubts about Beijing’s overriding control over disease.

Showing concerns on the serious global economic implications of the pandemic, the IMF officials lauded Beijing on March 20 stating China’s experience shows “the right policies make a difference in fighting the disease and mitigating its impacts.” Though they also cautioned about some risks but their comments “reassuring signs of economic normalization” in the country was a rich belief on Chinese quick monetary actions.

Right from the onset of the 2020 following a sudden outbreak, China had to make a hard choice either to deploy its resources in protecting the health, life and economic survival of the people or prevent the economy from a hard landing. The government rightly prioritized the former without ignoring the latter through an innovative mix of planned tactics to support vulnerable households and smaller firms by waiving social security fees, utility bills and channeling credit via fintechs.

The nonpareil and novel blend of state’s social and economic measures – through arrangement of subsidized credit to scale up the production of healthcare equipment and other critical activities – China not only neutralized the dire Covid-19 challenge but also shielded its economy from significant disruption.

As the disease is almost wiped out from the country, the massive Beijing-built healthcare production structure isn’t standing idly by instead unleashes a silver lining for its economy. The more wired China capability in manufacturing medical diagnostic apparatus and accessories including masks and other personal protective goods can be redirected to meet growing domestic and international market demand that is encountering a famine of diagnostic items.

From now onwards, China will be more prepared to confront any potential danger of the epidemic emergence with a futuristic approach. As the Covid-19 jolts the Europe and North America and threatens to infiltrate in the other regions, Beijing is playing an assertive role as well in guarding the world from pandemic by extending its expertise and providing medical supplies to the struggling government.

So, a strong China is in the interest of world since it always called on social and economic cooperation to settle differences and resolve disputes. By clobbering the Covid-19 and taking sweeping fiscal measures at home, Beijing has laid the foundation for its own and global economic revival and showed the way how a country can emerge from crisis and get back on the path of development through a resolute will and robust risk management.

Is incompetence behind Trump’s anti-China rhetoric?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "Fort Russ News (FRN)":
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/03/is-incompetence-behind-trumps-anti-china-rhetoric-covid-19-in-perspective/

Global impact of Covid-19 is expanding from human to economic and labor crisis and if the world did not respond with urgent, large-scale and coordinated measures of protecting workers, stimulating economy and supporting jobs and incomes – up to 25 million people could be unemployed that can trigger up to $3.4 trillion of income losses to workers.

The study by the International Labor Organization (ILO) also estimated that this strain on income resulting from the decline in economic activity will push the workers close to below the poverty line and could increase the working poverty by up to 35 million around the world in 2020 as compared to original estimate of 14 million.

Given that that the global financial crisis of 2008-09 elevated the worldwide unemployment by 22 million, the latest ILO projection portrays a ghastly global economic outlook which could spur the universal joblessness by more than 13% to 213 million in “high” scenario. The three low, mid and high situations were assessed on the basis of decline in GDP by 2%, 4% and 8%.

UN agency’s “mid” scenario present a whitish look about high-income countries where 7.4 million people are anticipated to be unemployed out of a total of 13 million. It sounds alarm for the rich nations, such as the US, which would be exposed to the risk of a significant GDP drop in the aftereffects of coronavirus pandemic.

With the coronavirus already beleaguered and laid the country in an undeclared lockdown, the suspension of manufacturing and production activities accompanied by flattened consumption of goods and services, inside and outside the US, would put a squeeze on its economy and speed up the employment seepage from the national job tally.

At a time when the US President Donald Trump should overlook all the discords, at least provisionally, and develop cooperation and engagements with all the nations, especially with China, due to its hands-on experiences in fighting and flooring the coronavirus – Alas, he has moved exactly on the opposite side and ratcheted up criticism on Beijing using a racist tone.

Since the signing of phase-one trade deal, Trump has been pretending to be a responsible, soft-spoken and placatory leader though was relying on his top aides to nitpick China on economic, trade, political and most recently on coronavirus issue. But the unusual public façade of being a serene and placid US president couldn’t last long and he bounced back into his original instinct quickly.

The very same guy, who until last week was praising China for shouldering international fight against Covid-19 by sharing critical information and taking impressive measures to control the spread of virus, suddenly hit the roof and started to blame Beijing for the pandemic. For him, “Chinese virus” isn’t a corrosive or racist term because coronavirus came from China and against which he is leading America’s war.

Other than Trump himself, perhaps everyone agrees that his repeated comments are racist and provocative. Scot Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, slammed his remarks stating “use of this term can’t but be interpreted as xenophobic and tinged with racist overtones.” His rash attitude is now inciting the countrymen to use xenophobic slurs and physically abuse the Asian-Americans.

As the experts, global media outlets and even the public health officials in the White House have avoided practicing such discriminatory behavior – ILO projection about significant economic slowdown and job losses in high-income countries gives an idea why Trump has become so consistent in using the racist expression.

It is not just the UN agency that foresaw a slump in the global economy, predominantly in the rich economies. While the Goldman Sachs last week forecasted that the Covid-19 would drive the US economy into recession through the first half of 2020, Moody’s Analytics too expected the havoc in American economy over the disease prevalence.

David Wilcox, a top economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said earlier this week that an economic downturn due to the coronavirus would put an abrupt end to the longest-running expansion in the US history. He further noted that if it were like an average recession, it would translate into roughly 6% unemployment from existing 3.5% and wipe out 3.5 million jobs from American market.

Behaving the way he is, Trump is played his part “sincerely” in making the jobs disappear from the US. During China’s battle with the coronavirus, he and his aides didn’t take the threat seriously rather “relished” the proceeding alongside attempting to deal a blow to China’s economy by making efforts to steal its manufacturing jobs, investment and exports.

Trump thought that his travel restrictions should be enough to keep the coronavirus outside the border of the US. After his sole gadget to prevent Covid-19 entrance flopped pathetically, he ought to come up and take the responsibility of his languor in responding the challenge that has destroyed small businesses and millions of daily wagers for a longer period.

Meanwhile, the life is returning to normalcy in China which is quite vexing for the Trump administration that hoped Beijing to collapse economically but in the end, has endangered the US economy and jobs by driving it en route for a disaster and is now shrouding its incompetence in anti-China rhetoric.

Trump is failing at defeating the 'invisible enemy'

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-19/Trump-is-failing-at-defeating-the-invisible-enemy--OYTKY3F1Ze/index.html

Despite the spike in the number of coronavirus patients within the United States and its intrusion into the entire 50 states, the US President Donald Trump lends no time to take care of millions of Americans but clings days on rediscovering the disease’s country of origin or determining the nationality of Covid-19 by tagging it a “Chinese virus.”

Though he defends his repeated use of the phrase as a comeback to Chinese foreign spokesperson comments about probable US soldier’s involvement in the virus introduction – the racist tones and viral bigotry of his aides calling coronavirus “Wuhan virus” and “the Kung-Flu” tells of a cover up tactic to cloak the US administration’s real gaffes..

Snippy change in Trump’s behavior toward Beijing only emanated after his failure to preempt the lethal fallouts of the coronavirus in the US. Indeed since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, his role has been lethargic and lacked the vital gravity needed to engulf a disease that is racing across the world, overwhelming healthcare systems and upending societies.

US president initially claimed that the coronavirus was “totally under control” and “to be down to close to zero” in the country. Just over a week earlier, he quoted the Surgeon General “The risk is low to the average America”, boasted of creating over 350,000 jobs and largely relied on the divisive travel ban measures on China and Europe including the UK.

Efforts by the White House officials to link the coronavirus outbreak with China are deliberate in a bid to stoke tensions with Beijing and distract the focus of the ordinary Americans from their blunders. In such an attempt, Trump misled the nation stating in his unusual Oval Office address that his early intense travel restrictions, which the European Union failed to take, prevented the Covid-19 to prevail in the US.

He made outlandish declaration knowing that the World Health Organization (WHO) had warned that such gauges are not usually effective in precluding the importation of epidemic cases but may have significant economic and social impact. So, the only major step Trump took was expected to do more harm than the good for Americans and the US economy and it did.

Chaotic president’s dramatic announcement to constrict most travel from Europe roiled the airports into mess, tanked the stock market and stunned the lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic. The move infuriated the public health experts inside and outside of the US who slammed the decision, underscoring that the tack can theoretically just delay the spread of disease and could work strategically only if combined with the containment measures.

Trump, therefore, is only to blame himself for “Airlines and other” industries which he thought was affected by the “Chinese virus.” It is the result of his hawkish advisors that the country’s biggest airlines called on Washington for more than $50 billion in aid to endure the financial losses – which in fact suffered less from the pandemic and more from his slapdash decisions.

After a prolonged reticence over the prevalence of the illness and playing down the threat of the coronavirus in the US, Trump has finally realized that the Covid-19 “is a pandemic” and he always knew “this is a real.” However, in forcing him to understand the sensitivity of the situation and respond, the disease has infected more than 5,700 Americans and killed 100 of those.

In the grim nationwide circumstances, the US needs to implement lockdown and quarantine methods to safeguard the life and health of Americans. But following China, about whom the US congressmen and media have been overly clamorous until recently, would be extremely embarrassing for the Trump administration.

Though the US National Security Council on Monday denied the reports that there is going to be a “national lockdown” and the country was about to put in a mandatory two-week quarantine, Trump’s advice to the US citizens not to travel, stay home for the most part and “enjoy their living room” was none else than a suggestion to the people to voluntarily keep themselves in lockdown and quarantine.

While his guidance implicitly backed Chinese measures to control the spread of the coronavirus, Trump’s information on the disease and way of tackling the Covid-19 is steadily losing the trust of his compatriots who believe that their federal government was not taking sufficient steps to combat the public health crisis.

A NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on Tuesday showed that 70% of the Americans in March were concerned or very concerned about the increase of coronavirus in their community. An overwhelming majority of 60% wasn’t very much or not at all satisfied with the information they heard about coronavirus from the President Trump.

Instead of preparing the nation from the rising threats of coronavirus and taking effective preventive measures, the White House officials wasted several weeks in criticizing China or looking at the ways to count on its health crisis. Now with the dangers roaming on his skull, Trump now acknowledges “We have an invisible enemy” that “is a bad one,” “a very bad one.”

Role Of Chinese Civilian-Military Cooperation To Fight Covid-19 Outbreak

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "Fort Russ News (FRN)":
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/03/role-of-chinese-civilian-military-cooperation-to-fight-covid-19-outbreak/

Defending the territorial integrity from the invasion of foreign enemies, rounding up terrorists, ensuring peace and stability in the country and performing non-military activities such as humanitarian and disaster relief operations during earthquakes and floods are some of the primary duties of armed personnel the world over.

Though outside of national defense, people’s protection and other doled out functions – they are also responsible for human resource management, legal affairs, computer technology, cybersecurity, medical care and development, maintenance and upgradation of their defense equipment – their role in extending healthcare support to country’s citizens has steadily increased.

After coronavirus outbreak in China, folks around the world witnessed a committed and determined effort by Chinese military to back its government’s drive in effectively combatting and handling an entirely unknown nemesis that was more silent, stealthy and secretive than the conventional adversaries and cutting-edge military weapons.

While all the Chinese institutions prioritized the prevention and control of the Covid-19 to safeguard life and health of people – Chinese President and Chairman of Central Military Commission (CMC) Xi Jingping himself led the charge on the pneumonia and chaired numerous meetings, carried out inspection visits to the virus-hit area, deployed all resources and directed military to assist local authorities in boxing the epidemic.

CMC and People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China’s national army, didn’t disappoint the boss and hopes of ordinary Chinese by resolutely implementing his instructions and taking several initiatives including establishment of joint prevention and control mechanism, indulging in dedicated research, formation of joint logistics support units and deployments to pneumonia-struck regions.

Once President Xi passed out order to deploy PLA doctors and paramedics to the affected cities – Chinese military straightaway began to airlift its military medical staff, with quite a few having applied experience of tackling SARS and Ebola, to the epicenter of Covid-19, Wuhan, as the spiraling viral outbreak threatened to spread across China.

Since January 24, the eve of Chinese Lunar New Year, armed forces sent more than 4,000 medical professionals to assist the fight against Covid-19 in Wuhan in addition to 63 designated military hospitals that provided about 3,000 beds and over 10,000 medical professionals to treat thousands of coronavirus-infected patients.

The affirmative response from Chinese armed forces through deployment of its proactive medical team combined with government’s omnipresent measures including construction of a makeshift Huoshenshan Hospital in just 10 days – was an estimable and inspirational paragon of a groovy and idyllic civilian-military cooperation.

By quickly assuming control of the medical facility immediately, PLA further demonstrated that it was as alarmed and steadfast with the life and health of the Chinese people as it is for the protection of China’s sovereignty. It was an unrecorded declaration that will surely boost people’s confidence in people’s military and their loyalist sentiments toward the country.

Various online comments by Chinese – Cheer up, China! I believe we can curb the epidemic”, “Salute to workers working around the clock” and “It feels like seeing the sunshine through the dark clouds” – expressed that the Covid-19 had failed dreadfully in shaking the trust of Chinese people on their benevolent government and caring army.

PLA role in battling out the infectious diseases isn’t confined to Covid-19 alone. In the midst of rising prevalence and growing cases of such severe illnesses, Chinese military has historically backed its incumbent government to repel the deadly viruses such as SARS, influenza A (H1N1), avian influenza H5N1 and H7N9 and Ebola hemorrhagic fever.

After SARS epidemic, which infected over 8,000 people and killed 774 in 28 countries, was over in 2004 – Chinese government and military attached great importance on the prevention and control of infectious disease and formulated a series of legal mechanisms through 2009 to intensify efforts in building a robust public health system and restrict the spread of epidemic situations.

It was owing to the one-off civilian-military collaborative emergency response that following Ebola epidemic outbreaks in West Africa – China, in 2014, was able to become the first to lend the assistance to the region by sending about 1,200 military-civilian medical and health experts to carry out laboratory tests, make diagnosis, provide treatment and health training and build a biological safety laboratory for the affected countries.

The distinctive fusion worked again in February 2016 when five cases of Zika virus infection, which were imported from Venezuela, emerged in Guangdong and PLA Academy of Military Medical Sciences was successful in determining the gene sequel of the first Zika virus through civilian-military partnership.

Chinese military, therefore, has not only buoyed a strong support for its government to prevent and control the expansion of infectious diseases in the past underlying the principles of unified command, resource sharing and close cooperation – it is again aiding its national administration to push back the latest phenomenon of Covid-19.

As Xi repeatedly called on the military research institutions to step up multidisciplinary scientific research on source of infection, transmission and pathogenesis to help produce more targeted and practical guidelines for Covid-19 prevention and control – the reports that PLA top epidemiologist-led team’s breakthrough achievement in developing Covid-19 vaccine are encouraging.

Hoping these sweats to stroke a jubilation triumph for the mankind – by any means, China’s unprecedented specimen of forging irreplaceable civilian-military teamwork sets the tone for the global world as how diverse domestic institutions can mold themselves into an integrated organizational structure to minimize the risks to human health, upheld social stability and subscribe to the economic development and national reconstruction.

Social disharmony stokes risks to Indian economy

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune" https://tribune.com.pk/story/2178237/6-disharmony-risk-indian-economy/ and "Fort Russ News (FRN)" https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/03/social-disharmony-stokes-risks-to-indian-economy/:

In 2014, the ruling Indian Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) intoned the slogan “One India, Great India” and won election by disseminating its manifesto that pledged to stabilize economy, control inflation, revive labor-intensive manufacturing sector, purge corruption, create jobs, end violence against women, deliver better public service to neo-middle class and raise spending on education to 6% of GDP.

Though until before 2019 election, Modi government completely or partially fulfilled some of its promises as well as failed to meet a few of those – it was still likely to gain a comfortable majority in the Indian parliament through its BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

So, its shift from laying emphasis on socio-economic development to frictional issues – such as revocation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), enactment of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) to fast-track the naturalization of selective religious minorities and construction of Ram Mandir (Temple) – was increasingly oblivious, rash and unruly.

Indian governing party unequivocally was influenced by the ultra-nationalist Hindutva agenda of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) that seeks control in national policies, teaches Hindu scriptures as historical facts in BJP-won states, scuttles unsought legislation and browbeats government to be protectionist about multinational companies’ entrance in the country.

Falling hostage of the country’s largest political party to RSS ideology was replicated in the conflagration of “one-sided and well-planned” riots in northeast Delhi that so far killed more than 50 people, injured over 200 and forced to flee thousands. The fear of RSS hardcore doctrine has infiltrated so much that it even prevented the Speaker Om Birla to allow a debate in the Indian parliament.

While the violence, which originally stemmed from anti-CAA and pro-CAA clashes, seems to remodel into a program after BJP reprehensibly lost Delhi state election – the continuance of raising the incendiary “Shoot the Traitors” slogan in the rally of Union Home Minister Amit Shah is setting a dangerous trend that could be caustic for Indian internal stability, people security and for the country’s plunging economy.

After BJP hostile campaign followed by its divisive moves of striping the autonomy of J&K and Ladakh after cleaning up the rivals in national election –Rajiv Kumar, the vice chairman of state’s policy think tank NITI Aayog, warned government about “unprecedented (Indian economic situation) in the last 70 years” citing 5.8% GDP growth and called for extraordinary steps to tackle the slowdown.

The dramatic reversal in one of the key members of Modi’s economic team came within months of Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das’ claim that argued the country would be the fastest growing economy, clocking a growth of 7.2% in 2019-2020 despite global economic risks and financial market and crude price volatility.

It further stalked former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian’s conclusion in his June 2019 paper that found country’s real GDP was overestimated by 2.5% at about 7% between 2011-12 and 2016-17 and reckoned it to be hovering around 4.5%. In his another co-authored December 2019 research, he dubbed the current crisis as “India’s Great Slowdown” where the economy was heading to the intensive care unit.

Kumar’s caveat about looming threats to Indian economy and Subramanian’s revelation over GDP hyperbole stood irrefutable once the global ratings agency Moody’s, in November 2019, downgraded New Delhi’s sovereign rating from stable to negative – pointing out the economic slowdown, financial stress among rural households, weak job creation and liquidity crunch in non-banking financial sector.

Moody’s latest prognoses are even nerve-wracking. In less than a month last week, the agency revised its baseline growth projection for India from 5.4% to 5.3% in 2020 after initial expected downfall from 6.6% to 5.4%. Last month, it said that Indian economic revival will likely to be “shallow” as its economy had decelerated rapidly over the last two years with real GDP grew by a meager 4.5% in the third quarter of 2019.

Taking into consideration that the Indian per capita GDP needs to grow at least 9% a year to reach the half of the level of the US in 15 years – at current pace, it would take no less than 30 years for New Delhi to achieve that. It would thus be stark challenge for India to turn the tide amid forthcoming global economic crisis and growing domestic violence.

Violence in the last week of February that was a week of many firsts – where India, for the first time at the arrival of a US president, saw communal violence in its independent history and for the first time in recent memory , schools and mosques were burnt; ambulances were denied access to the grievously injured and journalists were beaten up, booed and heckled – could propel nationwide riots and further exacerbate Indian chilling economic situation.

Former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is also skeptical of the economic ruin and worsening communal tensions that are being stoked and fanned by religious and political intolerant sections of the society and could rupture the soul of India and pull down its “global standing as an economic and democratic power in the world.”

After winning election, Modi claimed to have met his objective “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas” (development for all) and assured to win “Sabka Vishwas” (trust of everyone) this time. About 10 months of becoming the prime minister, people in India are seeing it otherwise – “Sabka Vinash” (destruction of all). In all, BJP would have regained the power but in due course, Indian economy and people have lost to RSS Hindu-nationalist ideology.

The ongoing social disharmony and the self-inflicted economic extinction, if not handled and tamed through a harmonized politically negotiated dialogue, could make India’s economic resurgence more distant that has already slid the country into a majoritarian state where the tyranny of numbers are in full display.

Why Biden won and can Sanders make a comeback?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-07/Why-Biden-won-and-can-Sanders-make-a-comeback--OFmndRPiSc/index.html

Democratic Party’s swamped contest for the US presidential candidature, akin to the WWE crowded Royal Rumble event that aims to toss the rivals over the top rope, markedly became a two-man race on Super Tuesday after a renascent Joe Biden scored some stunning and terrific victories in Texas, Minnesota and Massachusetts and pulled off 10 out of the 14 states up for grab, capping the rival Bernie Sanders’ dream run at the launching pad.

Vermont Senator Sanders dashed into the Election Day with sky-high expectations for the presidential nominee to be finalized at the Democratic convention in July as compared to Biden whose political history and hitherto dreary electoral campaign never appeared to transpire into a sort of a rampage on Super Tuesday.

Biden’s belated turnaround, after running a dead campaign as recently as of last week, not only coxed former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to drop out and drove him to support the veteran US politician; his stunning show also intimidated Sanders’ status as a Democratic frontrunner.

Late-deciding voters, the one consistent trend across the United States that traditionally led American voters to make up their minds in the last few days, were the key for Biden’s remarkable win. By bagging at least 40% votes of late deciders in nine of the ten states analyzed, Biden recounted that time belonged to him.

While the bemused voters filled Biden’s ballot box drastically to claim him wins in Minnesota, Tennessee, Maine, Massachusetts, Texas, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Virginia – his strong American African vote base additionally helped him to take control in Alabama, Arkansas and strengthen his position in some of other states.

The late change of minds struck Sanders spicily and he was able to protect only his home town Vermont out of 10 probed states along with Colorado, California and Utah from the electorates’ madcap blitz. Biden nine, seven and one point wins in Minnesota, Massachusetts and Maine respectively dealt blows to Sanders’ up to 80% favorability in the three primaries.

On Wednesday, Sanders claimed Biden was winning black votes “by running his ties” with the former US President Barrack Obama. Earlier he blasted his rival for pursuing “same old politics” and pledged to wage a war on the corporate and political establishments and sought to bring in “working class people” into his “unprecedented, grassroots, multigenerational (and) multiracial movement” to defeat Trump.

Though Sanders points at 60 billionaires for funding Biden’s campaign, his remarks are grossly believed to be “racially clumsy at best and outright ignorant at worst” and insulting for the African Americans that have never been a part of the “elite” or “establishment” instead they have played a bigger role in capsizing the establishment in pursuit of their civil rights and quality.

Sanders’ rhetoric toward black voters is stemmed from their overriding support for Biden that gave him a surprise victory on Super Tuesday. For many black voters, Biden is the grandest option and an impeccable candidate with the right experience who would appeal to the wider cross-section of Democrats and has got the ability to take on Donald Trump in a bare-knuckle political battle for the US President.

Biden’s dominant performance with black voters in South Carolina on February 29 was reverberated in nearby North Carolina and Virginia on Super Tuesday and fueled his victories across the South where exit polls found that Biden won 62% of the black votes and another 33% of them in other states. Grabbing these votes was crucial since in each of the last five contested Democratic primaries – whoever grabbed black voters, has gone on to clinch the nomination.

As either of the two Democratic presidential candidates needs at least 1,991 pledged delegates to secure a nomination and to challenge the President Trump – it is not all over for Sanders yet and he is determined to make a strong comeback by producing an invincible spree like he earlier did in Nevada and in other states.

Sanders performed impressively in Colorado and would hope to cut Biden’s lead in California where about 3.3 million ballots remain uncounted over state’s absentee-voting program that allows people to cast ballots through mail. But since it might take weeks the authorities to announce final results, Sanders will have to wait and see if his biggest bet would allow him to catch Biden if not surpass him.

Nevertheless, harking back to 2016 Democratic presidential primary contest, Sanders had only succeeded to reduce Hillary Clinton’s 13-point lead in California, the largest trove in the US with 415 delegates, to seven points without any change in the topline after the final precinct total were declared. So, it would be something paranormal if he manages to square off Biden who is currently overall leads Sanders 627-551.

Much depends on how Sanders performs in Michigan, Washington and Missouri on March 10; in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona on March 17 and in Georgia on March 24. If Sanders yearns to roll out a sandy pitch for Biden in the post-Super Tuesday leg of race for an ultimate showdown with Trump on November 3, he would need to tone down his grandiloquence toward Democratic establishment that is coalescing behind Biden.

With the last female candidate and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren also pulled the plug on her campaign after being squeezed in between Biden and Sanders, the duel has effectively modeled into a two white-men rivalry. And if Sanders failed to do well in the next rounds, the 2020 Democratic Party’s presidential and caucuses contest would be over beforehand.

The world needs China to fully get back to work

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-06/The-world-needs-China-to-get-fully-back-to-work-ODeK8bPOM0/index.html

Coronavirus epidemic, which killed more than 3,000 people, infected over 90,000 and reached 64 countries of the world, mostly in China’s city of Wuhan, is being hit hard by the Chinese authorities that is gradually taking a predominant control on the flu-like virus. Other than Hubei, the mortality rate of the virus is mostly below 1% with some seven provinces and regions had not reported a single patient.

The closure news of the first of the 16 specially built hospitals – following a sharp fall in the new cases in Chinese Hubei province and its capital Wuhan, the one at the center of the disease – established that China was finally winning its well-fought battle against Covid-19. Bold decision was taken after the hospital discharged its last recovered patients.

As China takes a dig at the pneumonia outbreak, there has been a widespread criticism, especially in the United States, about Chinese violation of the human rights through the implementation of mandatory 14-day quarantine, roadblocks, checkpoints and some lockdown gauges wrought as “cordon sanitaire.”

But with the confirmation from the World Health Organization (WHO) and even by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that people can catch infection from others – the vilification lost its legitimacy and proved that China, through such preventive measures protected health, lives and human rights of other millions of people who were at the risk of falling victim to the disease.

Denigration lacked the wit with also because the restrictions are of course temporary and will be lifted once normalcy prevails in the country. In addition, the curbs should worry China more than the outsiders since the coronavirus has suspended its economic activities and disrupted the routine life of ordinary Chinese people.

In actual fact, China isn’t the only country that quarantined people to prevent the outbreak to inflate. During 2003 SARS outbreak, Canada too practiced “community quarantine” that successfully reduced transmission of the disease to one-third. The US, Taiwan and Singapore had also used to isolate or quarantine the people at homes and hospitals with suspected or probable SARS.

After Ebola went out of control in 2014, West African nations agreed to impose a cross-border isolation zone, “cordon sanitaire”, after WHO warned the outbreak could cause “catastrophic” loss of life and serve economic disruption if it continued to spread. CDC again found that the separation of sick persons and comprehensive contact tracing were the essential components of Ebola response in Liberia.

The claims of gaining effective control on the epidemic by China are backed with the authorization of international health organization. In its report, the WHO suggested the world to follow China’s lead where upon detection of a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology in Wuhan, it launched the national emergency response.

Explaining the declining Covid-19 cases in China, WHO assistant director and veteran epidemiologist Bruce Aylward subbed the western denunciation saying that the measures China took to fight the outbreak were all common to prevent the spread of disease. He also came down on the lockdowns – to decry human rights violations – and revealed that only people in Wuhan and two or three other cities were confined and lauded Chinese efforts to protect its country and rest of the world.

The comments coincide with agency’s Chief Tedros Adhanom remarks that almost eight times as many cases were reported outside China as inside in the previous 24 hours. So as of now, the world needs China more, over its rigorous knowledge and experience of combatting Covid-19, than Beijing would look toward global nations to force back the epidemic.

It is bluntly clear that China had no intentions to limit the human rights of its people; indeed it shielded humans themselves from fatal consequences of illness. That is why, hopes for restoration of routine life and economic activities are ascending in the country as China witnesses a declining trend in new virus cases.

On Tuesday, Apple’s supplier Foxconn announced to resume the normal production in China by the end of March. While more than half of its workers had already restarted work in the country, the decision by the world #1 contract manufacturer, to start the full-fledge manufacturing in China, was an unprecedented belief in Chinese government to knockout the virus and revive its economy.

China acknowledges that the coronavirus outbreak had a “negative impact” on its economy. Nevertheless, Beijing is committed to bounce back with the assurance of revitalizing the economy and achieving its economic and social goals for 2020. Over the years, China has faced several such outbursts that threatened it economy and culture.

This time again, China asserts to emerge successfully on the back of its stronger resilience, enormous domestic consumption, world’s biggest market and solid foundation of economic and trade structure. In the past, China has recurrently demonstrated that it can do wonders after being hit down and there is no reason it can’t do it once more.

As China has its system primed for rapid detection and quick response and its 30 other provinces managed not just to avoid but to reverse the outbreak, it is about time that the people of China should oust the fear and come up with a stronger will to put China and the world on the path of development again.