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| Meeting of NATO Ministers of Defense - Brussels, Belgium |
You may win a war with limited financial and weaponry resources but you can never win it without valiant and resolute combat forces – an instinct NATO misses critically in Afghanistan.
After a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, the commander of NATO-led coalition in Afghanistan General John Nicholson once again called the allies to contribute more troops for the war against Afghan Taliban and other insurgent groups.
The General further briefed the reporters that the entire ‘uplift’ of the American troops committed by Trump has reached in Afghanistan which will make total U.S. troop strength to 14,500 in the country. Besides military personnel, a total of 15,000 U.S. civilian contractors are also working in Afghanistan.
Of 11,000 U.S. troops deployed earlier in Afghanistan under Operation Freedom’s Sentinel (OFS) – nearly 5,000 troops are on a NATO Resolute Support (RS) mission to train, advise, and assist Afghan security forces. Nearly 7,000 troops from 39 NATO and non-NATO nations are helping them on this undertaking.
The additional 3,000 U.S. military personnel, sent as reinforcement, will also join RS mission – not combat forces and will serve in advisory roles only. Other NATO nations would also be sending their troops only for RS mission. Neither the U.S. nor NATO members’ troops are on a combat mission in Afghanistan.
U.S. troops’ level in Afghanistan reached peak in when the troops’ tally equaled 110,325 in 2011 before gradual withdrawal in later years.
Nicholson plea comes at a time when the war-torn country is experiencing a sadistic 2017 and Afghan Taliban are growing their control in the country. As of August 2017, Over 33% of the area in 407 districts of Afghanistan are either under Taliban control or being contested, according to the latest SIGAR report.
As of 30-September-2017, the United States has obligated $44.4 billion and disbursed $43.3 billion to train, equip, build, and sustain the Afghan Security Forces (ASF). As of 2017, Congress appropriations for Afghanistan security totaled $70 billion that is 60% of total reconstructing funds and four-times of U.S. World War II restructuring costs.
Another $48 billion was requested for war spending in Afghanistan during FY2018 by U.S Department of Defense – reaching cumulative war expenditure in Afghanistan to nearly $916 billion through FY2001-2018. United States’ war-related expenditure is projected to exceed $5.6 trillion through FY2001-2018.
But this massive spending could not prevent to control 6,769 ASF casualties including 2,531 killings in the first four months of 2017. Instead, Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) assigned strength declined by 9,000-persons in this quarter – to about 320,000.
On the front of civilian casualties, Secretary James Mattis itemized that in ‘recent months, there have been fewer civilian casualties as a result of Coalition operations’. But UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) disagrees.
According to a recent report, UNAMA documented 8,019 civilian casualties in first nine months of 2017 – 6% decrease in as compared to same period in 2016. Despite this decease, the mission noted a 52% increase in civilian casualties through aerial strikes by Coalition forces for the same nine-month period.
In the contextual of these deadly circumstances in Afghanistan, the other North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries have been cautious to raise troops’ level in Afghanistan – a kind of response General Nicholson seemed to be quite concerned about.
Invoked after 9/11 attacks, article 5 of the treaty requires the fellow countries to come and aid any of the member country in the event of any armed attack – considering it an attack on all. Troops in Afghanistan were deployed under this proviso.
But the prolonged war in Afghanistan has watered the applicability of this stipulation now as a number of military posts are lying vacant in the battle-weary country since last year – adding on to the frustration to the United States.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the new number is yet to be finalized – revealing ‘still have some gaps’ and acknowledging to facing a problem in filling up the hundreds of military vacancies in Afghanistan.
Sore to the wish of the United States, key NATO troops’ contributor, Germany refused to lift its troops’ level for the coming year. ‘The commitments received so far are sufficient. We will not reach the total troop level but to a high degree’, said German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen.
United States and the other NATO member countries are clearly reluctant to deploy combat forces in Afghanistan to avoid troops’ casualties. This is why; Trump administration is using pressure tactics on Pakistan to somehow persuade it for military engagement in Afghanistan.
The recent statement by General Nicholson ‘no change in Pakistan behavior’ is part of this tactical move. But Pakistan is rightly conceiving the NATO ambitious plan and is sensibly evading any step that could undermine peace and stability in its country.
Consequently the more U.S. and NATO troops are not going to change the overall trajectory of war in Afghanistan as the recent troops’ increase is non-combative stride – except for air strikes and for just assisting, advising, and supporting the Afghan security forces battling with the insurgents.
Additionally, if NATO cannot achieve ‘objectives’ in Afghanistan with constant military deployment of up to 150,000 troops in 16 years of war – how could it is going to get there with a few thousands of them?
Unless, the U.S. and other NATO partners engage in direct war against Taliban – the dream of winning in Afghanistan will remain a dream.