US-China Trade Deficit Mounts albeit Manufacturing Jobs Return

By: Azhar Azam

Trump repeatedly slated China for ripping United States in trade and threatened to slap 45% tariff on everything from China – arguing that the America has lost 70,000 factories ever since China entered into the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Now he fitfully tweeted that the lost factories are 55,000 besides loss of 6 million manufacturing jobs and accumulating trade deficit of $12 trillion since Bush Sr. through 2017 – including his first year for ‘Bad Policies and Leadership’.

In his hardnosed speeches, he frequently professed China an economic boogeyman and currency manipulator who is competing unfairly with other countries including United States to upturn its exports at the cost of US manufacturing jobs.

He incessantly accused China, Mexico, and some other countries for ‘greatest jobs theft’ in the history of the America – proclaiming that US companies moved jobs to these countries and vowed to bring them back into the US.

BUT on the completion of his first year in the White House as US President, Trump only managed to increase US reliance on China’s goods.



From January 2017 to December 2017, United States endured the largest-ever trade deficit with China in goods of $375 billion as US goods imports from People’s Republic rumbled to peak $506 billion – by $43 billion or 9.3 percent.

With US exported $130 billion of goods to China in 2017 – the trade gap kept on echoing that against every $1 of goods exported to China, the United States imported about $4 of goods for the closed year.

Farcically, the trade deficit in goods with China alone was responsible for more than 66 percent of the US trade deficit in goods and services combined as well as accounted for over 46 percent of US trade deficit in goods in 2017.

US trade deficit in goods and service represented $566 billion in 2017 – an increase of $61.2 billion from 2016. It exported $2,329 billion of goods and services and imported $2,895 billion of goods and services in 2017.

The country’s trade deficit in goods in 2017 alarmingly ballooned to $810.0 billion – an increase of $57.5 billion or 7.6 percent from $752.5 billion in 2016, though was partially offset by services trade surplus of $244.0 billion.

Besides China, US goods imports from Mexico, Canada, and Japan also increased by 6.8 percent, 8.0 percent, and 3.4 percent respectively. Parenthetically, the same four countries are also the top exporting markets of US goods.

Manufacturing jobs – the crux of Trump’s campaign – have however increased by 245,000 – from 12.369 million in January 2017 to 12.614 million in February 2018, according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data shows an increase of 189,000 in manufacturing jobs for 2017, second-largest to 209,000 in 2015.

United States heavily relies on manufacturing exports which makes 85.5 percent of total US goods exports. In 2017, manufacturing exports have grown only by $58.9 billion against manufacturing imports increase of $109.9 billion.

Although Trump’s hoax – to influence voters’ sentient over China stealing their jobs – bargained him a win, yet he has completely flopped to meet his promise on ‘economic enemy’ and in its place, almost doubled the increase in trade gap with China.

The Trump’s Administration dubs these mounting imbalances over termination of ‘job-killing’ Trans-Pacific Treaty (TPT) and renegotiating North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and several other reasons.

Disappointed Trump is now seeking China for a plan to cut the US trade deficit by $100 billion – by 27 percent of trade gap in 2017. Simultaneously, he is threatening a host of actions – starting from ‘misdirected’ tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Chinese steel production – which supplies half of the total world steel output – is the newest target of Trump’s ire. But China already is slowing its steel production to stomach its steel over-capacity (831 million tons), leaving millions jobless.

Its aluminum output was only 36 million tons in 2017 – the exports of which fell 30% from 2016 to 63 million tons. The production was still 25% of the global aluminum production and more than twice of Japan’s 30 million tons.

Now the Trump Administration cuffed a tariff of 25% on import of steel and 10% on the import of aluminum to screw China – giving reprieve to Canada and Mexico and possibly Australia in future.

US steel products imports totaled $31.0 billion in 2017 and China made up only about 3.5% or $1.1 billion for the year – half of its steel exports valued at $2.2 billion to the United States in 2015.

Canada, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, and Japan are the top exporters of steel products to the US while China is not even in the top-10. Trump believes that China’s exports of steel products is much higher as it transport thee goods through transshipments.

Consequently, as the Trump Administration goes on to punish China on steel and aluminum trade – the tariff surge is more likely to target US own allies, Japan and South Korea.

Further to these actions, United States Trade Representative (USTR) 2018 Trade Policy Agenda recalled that China is engaged in unreasonable and discriminatory efforts to obtain US technologies and intellectual property.

The report further indicated that the US also challenged India’s ban on the various US agricultural products – noting that India discriminated against the US products in favor of Indian products and the measures as trade restrictive.

After India failed to comply with the WTO recommendations, the United States requested WTO authorization to suspend $450 million in concessions and other obligations with respect to India per year.

USTR also proposed to keep China and India as well as nine other countries on ‘Priority Watch List’ over IP protection. Both the countries have consistently been listed every year since the report’s launch.

Civil War in Syria Explained: 500,000 Killed, 2-million Injured, 12-million Displaced and more Women Forced for Temporary Serial Marriages

By: Azhar Azam

March 2018 marks seven years of grave humanitarian crisis in Syria – which has so far killed about 500,000 people, injured over 2 million, and displaced about 12 million people, half the prewar population from their homes.

Let’s take a brief look at the Syrian civil war since it started in March 2011:

Syrian Crisis Background

Enthused by Arab Spring, Syrian people carried peaceful demonstrations in March 2011 to demand personal freedoms and democratic reforms – President Basahar al-Assad refused to offer.

The pacific marches quickly bloodstained and flared up into anti-regime protests after the inimical Syrian regime forces conducted a crackdown and opened fire on the protestors – killing a few and detaining many.

Uprising further brewed after Syrian regime forces detained and tortured a group of teenagers for writing graffiti in support of Arab Spring – resulting in dehumanizing and killing a 13 years old boy, Hamza al-Khateeb.

In July 2011, defectors from the military formed an armed alliance – Free Syrian Army (FSA) – to fight Assad’s brutalities and to topple his government – and the civil war broke throughout the country.

11% Assad-led Alawis Rule Syria

Syria is divided into a complex religious and ethnic divide. Originally the uprising was non-sectarian but the prevalence of armed conflict deep rooted the sectarian dissent in Syria

About 70% of the Syrian population is Sunni; however the country is dominated by 11% Alawites or Alawis – branded as an upshot of Shia sect – though they distance themselves from this sect.

Assad – an Alwai – gained the power in July 2000, securing 99.7% votes in favor and 0.3% against in a controversial uncontested presidential 2000 elections.

He is the son of Hafiz al-Assad who ruled Syria for 30-years. Besides Syrian president, Assad is also the commander-in-chief of Syrian armed forces and the General Secretary of ruling Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party.

Foreign Intervention

A number of regional and global players are involved in Syria to secure their ‘specific’ interests but foreign interventions have critically fueled the Syrian crisis. Whatever are the reasons behind foreign interventions in Syria – the cost is paid and paid heavily by the civilians of Syria.

Assad’s government is strongly backed by Shia-majority countries like Iran, Iraq, and Lebanese Hezbollah while Sunni-majority countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar favor the revolts.

In September 2015, Russia also made a military intervention into the Levant to support Assad’s regime in guise of bombing terrorist bases in Syria. The experts believed it as a Russian attempt to offload western pressure and bargain sanctions.

Russia is also very keen to secure its strategic asset in Syria to use Tartus port – under an agreement signed with Hafiz al-Assad in 1971 – in return of selling advanced weapons to Syria and keep its influence in the region.

Although United States has repeatedly rebuked Assad’s serious human rights violations in Syria – but always reluctant to involve directly into the crisis except for firing 59 Tomahawk missiles on Syrian air base in April 2017 over suspected use of chemical weapons by Syrian regime forces.

Death Toll

Several human rights and research non-governmental organizations (NGOs) give roughly the same estimates of casualties in Syria. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) provides the latest of all.

In its report on 10-December-2017, SOHR said that it documented about 500,000 death casualties in Syria since the start of the Syrian Revolution on 15-Macrh-2011. It also reported civilian death toll of 103,490 including 19,116 children and 12,041 women.

Syrian regime forces and Syrian and non-Syrian militias loyal to Assad (78.4%) and Russia (6.1%) victimized 84.5% of the total civilian casualties. Coalition forces bombings (2.7%), Turkey (0.9%), and opposition and Islamic factions (11.9%) were the other players responsible of civilian mortalities.

SOHR further documented that a total of 185,790 people of opposition forces including fighters in the ranks of rebels, defectors of regime forces, and Islamic factions were killed during the same period.

Regime forces endured deaths of 57,332 including fighters of NDF, Lebanese Hezbollah, domestic and international gunmen loyal to regime forces. The unidentified deaths from pictures and videos totaled 147.

These casualties do not include the fate of 5,200 abducted civilians and fighters by Islamic State; 4,700 prisoners and militiamen loyal to regime forces; and 2,000 kidnapped by the rebel and Islamic factions.

Observatory institution estimated that about 90,000 more deaths were not documented both from pro-government and opposition forces because of intense secrecy on the number of casualties and deaths in remote areas.

The continued military operations, shelling, and explosions have also wounded more than 2 million Syrian people with different injuries and permanent disabilities.

Another independent think tank – Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) said in its February 2016 Syrian Crisis Report that this devastating armed conflict in Syria educed about 470,000 fatalities by 2015.

As a result, life expectancy dropped significantly from 70.5 years in 2010 to 55.4 years in 2015 alongside reducing poverty ratio to 85.2%. The report also stated that the deliberate targeting of the doctors forced them to leave the country.

While speaking to the pressmen in April 2016, Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy said that up to 400,000 people have died in Syria due to ongoing civil war, rescinding the previous estimated death toll of 250,000.

In Geneva, where parties to the conflict were holding fraught peace talks – de Mistura stressed that the new estimate is an unofficial estimate and is based on his personal assessment, admitting UN figures out of date.

According to Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), it has documented the killings of 10,204 civilians in Syria during 2017 – including 2,298 children and 1,536 women.

The non-partisan organization fingered Syrian regime forces and Iranian militias for over 40% of civilian killings. Non-governmental overseer also identified International Coalition Forces and Islamic factions for more than 17% and 14% respectively for civilian deaths in Syria for 2017.

SNHR in its prior report said that nearly 207,000 civilians were killed from March 2011 till March 2017 in six-year Syrian civil war, including 24,000 children and 23,000 females. Most of the civilian victims – over 94% – were killed by Syrian, Russian, and Iranian alliance.

Aerial bombardment alone killed at least 57% of the total civilians died in Syria. Shelling through heavy artillery and tanks also killed 13% while the remaining death toll was divided amongst various kinds of weapons.

Human Displacements

As of February 2018, half of the Syria’s prewar population – about 12 million people – have either been internally displaced or forced to fleeing to nearby countries since the uprising movement, according to UN humanitarian affairs office.

The UN body also says that a total of 13.1 million people in Syria need humanitarian assistance – including 3 million needy people trapped in besieged and hard-to-reach areas where they are exposed to grave protection threats.

Out of 5.6 million Syrians fled the country – 2.1 million refugees are registered by UNHCR in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon including 37.4% children (0-11). A total of 3.5 million Syrian refugees are registered by Government of Turkey.

Tragically, many Syrians risk their lives while entering Europe to seek asylum and a few lose their lives on the way. From April 2011 to December 2017, European countries received over 1 million asylum application from Syrian people.

Sexual Exploitation

Women in Syria are exposed to greater risks of sexual exploitation and sexual harassments as the Syrian civil war prolongs.

According to Voices from Syria 2018, Syrian women are increasingly becoming victims of rapes, forced, and temporary serial marriages throughout the country. One of the types of sexual exploitations was marriage agreements for ‘as little as few hours before the marriage is then annulled’.

Gender-based Violence Area of Responsibility (GBV AoR) noted that the crisis has fumed the child marriages – several marriages with less than a month – ‘without sparing time between one marriage and another for the waiting period decreed by Islam.’

“Examples were given of women or girls marrying officials for shorter period of time for ‘sexual services’ in order to receive meals…..or obtaining distributions ‘in exchange of for a visit to her home’ or ‘in exchange of services’, such as spending a night with them.”

The pretext of temporary marriages is helping the networks of prostitutions to grow in some shelters to employ the girls in prostitution, the report observed.