On March 28, Secretary Perry of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued thirty-seven Part 810 authorizations to the U.S. companies, including seven to Saudi Arabia, allowing them to export unclassified civilian nuclear technology to 16 countries.
The DOE statement profoundly contested Deputy Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette’s remarks in February, which opined that the U.S. would not help Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear technology, unless it guarantees the use of technology for civilian purposes.
Brouillette’s rhetoric was blatantly responded by former Saudi intelligence chief and senior Saudi diplomat Prince Turki Al Faisal who voiced that Saudi Arabia has more options for civil nuclear technology other than the United States.
Ex-ambassador to the U.S. and the U.K. said that the energy market is open. ‘We have France. We have Russia. We have China. We have our friends in Pakistan and in other places as well, so if they want to remove themselves from that market, well, that's up to them.’
The kind of the U.S. about-turn on civil nuclear technology transfer and assistance to Riyadh is very much surprising to the quite a few in Washington and the world over that didn’t expect the abrupt announcement.
Links to this rushed authorization may be traced back to a topical high-level Chinese military delegation visit to Saudi Arabia in the end of March. Led by Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, the mission received a red carpet reception in Riyadh.
During its trip to the Kingdom, the Chinese military commission had some productive interaction with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) and King Salman, where the two sides agreed to strengthen bilateral economic and military cooperation.
Ostensibly, the United States proclaimed this chaotic Part 810 authorization in a bid to restrain Riyadh from relocating itself into the Chinese camp as well as to try and regain the declining trust of its key partner in Middle East.
Riyadh declines to become an atomic power. In an interview with a U.S. television on 15-March-2018, MbS said that his country isn’t interested in acquiring nuclear bomb but if Tehran develops such a weapon, Riyadh will follow the suit as soon as possible.
Saudi Arabia however is pursuing civil nuclear technology to meet the country’s energy and water needs. The Kingdom’s nuclear research center, King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KACARE), is an integral part of Saudi Vision 2030 that aims to create an energy mix in which atomic energy plays a major role.
Riyadh is also tailing an indigenous defense program. Its state-owned defense organization, Saudi Arabia Defense Industries (SAMI), goals to localize more than 50% of the Kingdom’s military spending and visions to be among the top-25 military industry companies by 2030.
The defense experts in Washington widely believe that Saudi Arabia is tracking its homegrown defense program with the help of China and Pakistan – inferring a Saudi swing towards the East over a potential divergence from the United States.
Earlier this year, an anonymous former Pentagon official told CNBC that Saudi’ secret Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF), which avoids missing with American advisors, likely ‘operates with Chinese input’. ‘Given that, Pakistan has close ties with both China and the Kingdom and has numerous advisors working with Saudi security agencies, I won’t be surprised if there were Pakistani assistance as well’, he added.
Although Riyadh has historically been a strong U.S. defense ally but some recent diplomatic spats have reprimanded the Kingdom to quickly find new partners for its defense needs, particularly after Trump onslaught at Saudi King Salman who would not last in power ‘for two weeks’ without the backing of the U.S. military.
‘King - we’re protecting you - you might not be there for two weeks without us - you have to pay for your military.’
Previously in a post-cold war era, the susceptible U.S. behavior ‘gifted’ Pakistan to China and yet again, Washington’s whiplash policies are giving away the largest Middle East economy to Beijing – a move China won’t mind at all.
Pakistan carts robust economic and strategic relations with both China and Saudi Arabia and all of three nations have a chronicle of being battered by fitful Washington – so together they could expand economic and military cooperation to evolve into much stronger alliance in the region.
As Islamabad has deep-rooted ties with some of the other Gulf nations as well, it could serve as an economic and military trade bridge between China and Middle East. Pakistan can escort Riyadh’s ambitious defense program through its decades-long experiences of erecting the defense industry after the country was abandoned by the U.S.
In addition, Saudi Arabia is in the process of diversifying its economy and wants to learn from incredible and consistent Chinese economic growth experiences over the years so that it can reform and widen its economic base.
In his official visit to China on February 21-22, Crown Prince MbS gave several accolades to Beijing including pacifying byline ‘over such a long period of exchanges with China, we have never experienced any problems with China’.
While signing $28 billion of MOUs, MbS reassured his support for China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI). The MOUs include setting-up $10 billion refining and petrochemical complex in Chinese city of Panjin, which would help Saudi Arabia to emerge as the largest crude oil supplier to China.
Riyadh support for BRI is crucial for Beijing since a substantial volume of Chinese trade will pass through Saudi-adjacent Red Sea, on its way to Europe. The economic cooperation will also strengthen bilateral trade that rose 26.3% to $63.3 billion in 2018; largely favoring Saudi Arabia that’s exports to China increased 44.5% to $45.9 billion for the year.
As long as, the United States gestures to appear distant to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh is quickly responding by lining-up new partners, most importantly China as well as strengthening relationship with stalwart ally, Pakistan.