Reconvergence in the Middle East

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2107705/6-reconvergence-middle-east/

More than two months after the world’s largest oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia was blitzed and forced to close down – it is still quite blurred where the drones and cruise missiles were stemmed from and why the US Patriot flopped to protect the biggest strategic asset of one of its closest allies.

Immediate pick out for the shocking attacks had to be Iran and so it was as the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo singled out Tehran shortly after the flying objects sneaked through the rich American defense systems to hit Saudi Aramco oilfields.

Innately, the wearying Riyadh-Tehran bilateral relations were another veiled objective of the assaults. And with Iran and Saudi Arabia gruffly staring at each other, the foremost and cardinal goal was met with near-perfect accuracy.

But once the tempers chilled, the two sides seated in quarantine to decipher the recipient of the Tehran-Riyadh standoff. While Iran was screwed up with the crippling US sanctions driving its oil exports to zero and Saudi Arabia was exposed to the vulnerabilities in its US-shielded defense system, the findings must have ended up in that the attacks didn’t favor any of the regional stakeholders and the victor was somewhere thousands miles away from conflict zone.

It was the time to rethink plans, conceive new strategies and figure out of the box solutions. With regional entities onboard, earlier this month Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stretched out to six GCC countries and Iraq – inviting them to join his UNGA-proposed Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) initiative for the stability and security in the region.

Named after the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most vital maritime oil trade route comprising 15 million barrels of oil per day – HOPE is furthered by Tehran as an important forum of dialogue and political negotiations among the nations based on no use of force, settling crisis peacefully, respect each other’s sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs of other countries.

Meanwhile, announcing the peace deal between Yemini President Abdul Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the secessionist Southern Transition Council (STC) – Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman described the “Riyadh Agreement” as an important step towards a political solution to end the four-year bloody war in Yemen.

Iranian last week’s promotion of its HOPE initiative coincided with bracing move by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain to allow their teams to participate in Gulf Cup football tournament in Qatar alongside the visiting teams from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Yemen.

The handshake was a major shift in GCC countries’ foreign policy towards Qatar ever since Riyadh-led regional bloc imposed a blockade on Doha in June 2017. Rifts among the regional countries are likely to ease as the soccer-diplomacy could begin a new era of regional cooperation.

Since HOPE formulates to forge an agreement of non-aggression and non-interference among the regional states, GCC proclivity to Qatar signals a transformed regional approach to distance and disintegrate itself from the US hawkish Mideast strategy.

After reconvergence with GCC and being a key Iranian ally, Qatar can play a constructive role in brokering new Middle East peace plan. On the other hand, Rouhani’s letters to GCC state heads has already opined to spotlight regional peace and shape up multilateral bilateral ties, not letting the US to cause indifference between the neighbors.

The countries in the Persian Gulf have seemingly grasped that billions of dollars of defense spending and arms purchases from the US cannot guarantee peace in the region and they have to get along and tone down the differences for a durable regional security.

Therefore, strained by regional threats and plunging oil prices in the international market, Gulf countries are now looking to resolve the disputes such as Yemeni war and bilateral tensions through political and peaceful means to rejuvenate their economies.

US interests in the Mideast have tremendously reduced, especially following its self-reliance in meeting vast domestic energy needs. Gulf is now a largely a region where Washington is gazing at to expand its arms exports for which it seeks to fuel the conflicts.

But GCC economies, which are expected to shrink from 2% in 2018 to 0.7% in 2019 collectively, and Iranian economy also in ruins, would turn out to be a major hitch in the realization of the US regional objective to push frictions and boost its arms sale. So over weakened GDP growth, the stabilization of economy will be the top priority of the regional countries rather than large weapon acquisitions from Washington.

Hate-driven US strategy on CPEC won't divide China and Pakistan

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-11-24/Hate-driven-U-S-strategy-on-CPEC-won-t-divide-China-and-Pakistan-LSyG8I3lDi/index.html

United States is desperately trying to somehow blow up China’s economic, political, strategic, trade and technology interests across the world. Internationally, it has reached out to its allies seeking support to impair Chinese regional and global interests.

In pursuit of its maligned campaign against China domestically, Washington has taken several hurtful measures against Beijing such as tariffs on Chinese goods and restrictions on it technology companies and additionally stepped up its labors to blame China by interfering in its internal Hong Kong affairs.

The latest US’ China-targeted move surfaced on Thursday after the US top diplomat for South Asia Alice Wells shockingly warned Pakistan that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would push the country into deeper and steeper Chinese debt burden, nurture corruption and oust its jobs and profits to Beijing.

In her “unusually specific” speech, Wells augured that China’s CPEC and non-CPEC loans were “going to take a growing toll on the Pakistan economy” and even if the repayments were deferred, they would hangover Pakistan economic development potential and cramp Prime Minister Imran Khan’s reform agenda.

US knocked the wrong door this time to implement its hate-driven strategy. When it comes to China, Pakistan would be the last country in the world to even thinking about Beijing to blow its economy, overstretch nation’s debt and pinch native employments or revenues.

Relationship between China and Pakistan is not confined to CPEC only, which is only one though critical pedigree of greater Sino-Pak cooperation. Otherwise, the two countries are entwined in much wider and most focal areas of social, economic, trade, defense and strategic collaboration.

This unique, deep-rooted and peerless partnership between the two republics, modeled as iron brothers, is friction-free and shock-proof. In a tailored era where all the nations are pursuing their commercial and premeditated interests – the people, governments and armed forces of China and Pakistan set a new specimen of communal, administrative and military understanding based on mutual trust and concord.

Islamabad is a largely an import-based economy and since the South Asian country has struggled to increase its exports in the last five years, the ballooning current account and trade deficit has put immense pressure on its foreign exchange reserves so as the ability to repay foreign debts. CPEC, purely a transportation project, cannot be convoluted with Pakistan’s weakened liquidity position.

Out of 22 CPEC-related projects worth of $18.9 billion as of December 2018, more than $12 billion were investments in energy sector to ease its power shortage and only $5.9 billion were provided to Pakistan by China as loans over a period of five years on concessional rates to improve its infrastructure network.  While Pakistan’s foreign debt amounted to about $107 billion on 30-September 2019, the Chinese loans accounted for nearly 5.5% of the country’s total external debt.

Wells claim of CPEC repatriating Pakistani jobs and profits to China is forged as well. So far, only the CPEC energy projects had generated $250 million in tax revenues to Pakistan and provided 10,000 jobs to the nationals as well as adding 14.5% to the total energy output.

Ambassador Wells also accused that the lack of transparency can inflate costs of CPEC projects and foster corruption. She hypothetically attached transparency of the energy projects with corruption and presented no evidence whatsoever to back her allegations.

Amid a robust accountability campaign being run by the current Khan administration in Pakistan, which jailed the former president, prime ministers, and federal and provincial ministers, Pakistan’s National Accountability Bureau (NAB) did not find a single evidence of corruption in CPEC and related projects.

As a matter of fact, the US meddled in Pakistani domestic issues and sovereignty by creating doubts on government’s nationwide anti-corruption drive and deliberately dragged Chinese state companies on “encourage(ing) corruption” to give hype to its motivated China-crusade.

Concluding the fifth CPEC media forum, organized jointly by Chinese embassy in Islamabad and Pakistan-China Institute, both sides blasted Wells’ remarks urging Islamabad to “ask Beijing tough questions on debt, accountability, fairness and transparency” and unanimously found that there was no corruption.

Pakistan is a sovereign country and Wells’ comments grossly violated international diplomatic standards and intervened in Pakistani domestic and foreign affairs by seeking Islamabad to question Beijing and politicking the project of economic and strategic significance.

China came to salvage Pakistan’s economy and defense after Washington had suspended its economic and military aid despite suffering from $150 billion of economic losses and 70,000 casualties due to US war on terror in Afghanistan.

On top of that, China and Pakistan maintain historical friendly relations and all efforts to spark differences between the two countries have repeatedly failed. So, the US must refrain setting Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives and cede trumpeting doubts about fate-changer CPEC project that is lone hope for the peace and prosperity of more than 200 million of Pakistanis.

The ‘great game’ in Syria

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2103457/6-great-game-syria/

Several regional and global players are involved in Syria to secure their national and strategic interests or to maintain the soi-disant “peace and stability” in the conflict-ridden country. Whatever are the motives behind foreign intrusions, the cost is paid – and paid heavily by the innocent civilians of the conflict-ridden country.

Since the civil war broke in March 2011, Syrian people have suffered from a grim and grisly array of violations including fatal torture, rape of men and women, forced marriage, internal displacement, relocation to contiguous countries and killing by barrel bombs, Scuds and chemical weapons.

Owing to the flagrant desecrations, which outstripped the ceiling of crimes against humanity, fell on deaf ears of international community that continues to remain muffled and a static spectator. This felonious kind of profound silence has exacerbated the humongous sufferings of millions of Syrian passive citizens.

Beneath the swarming bullets, missiles and fighter jets of government, opposition factions and international coalitions, seeking to compound their control and influence in the region – the civilian death toll in Syria has scaled up to 225,948 including 28,949 children and 28,011 women by September and there are no signs of stoppage anytime soon.

According to the data compiled by Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), the primary source of for the United Nations on all death toll-related statistics in Syria, the Syrian regime forces and Iranian militias were responsible for about 90% of civilian death toll. In its report in December 2018, the observatory group found that at least 560,000 people were killed in Syria including civilians and the parties fighting on Syrian soil.

Despite the reduction in violence in the war-trapped country in last one year, about 13.2 million people need health assistance, 2.1 million children are out of school and 33% are food insecure while 83% of the population is living below the poverty line besides 5.7 million refugees and 6.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).

After Erdogan and Putin, with ratification from al-Assad, struck a deal on pushing back Kurd forces in northern Syria and to establish a buffer zone – and Trump also somewhat wiped off his embarrassment stemmed from Erdogan-Putin deal and crowed about the US biggest success of killing the brazen Daesh leader Abu Bakkar al Baghdadi – there was one glimmer of hope for Syrians that the rival countries would proceed for the restoration of peace and initiate steps for the rehabilitation of IDPs and evacuees.

But with the US to keep 600 military men to secure Syrian oilfields, Russia deployed troops and attack helicopters at an expansive airbase in northern Syria formerly held by the US and Turkey keen interest on creating safe zone and to send Syrian refugees back home – Assad regime is very likely to strengthen its foothold but the civilians would be embroiled in more tougher peace-fading conditions.

In addition, having obtained the control Syria’s largest and deep-water Tartus port for 49 years – Russia has ensured to keep its presence in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Since it is the only Russian naval facility in the region, the port is of a vital strategic importance for the Kremlin.

Flashback to 1971, Assad’s father Hafiz al-Assad signed an agreement with former Soviet Union to use Tartus port in return for selling advanced weapons to Syria. By 1990, Damascus had stacked up a debt of $13.4 billion to Moscow and eventually agreed to concede its control on the port following Russia wrote-off three-fourth of the debt in 2005.



As the US President Donald Trump said in 2017 that the United States had “very little to do with Syria other than killing IS” and vindicated his decision of troop withdrawal in December 2018 after defeating Daesh in Syria, he is not prepared to meet his promise to culminate the US “endless wars” despite killing ISIS top leadership.

Although United States has repetitively reprimanded Assad’s serious human rights violations in Syria but it has been disinclined to involve directly into the crisis except for firing 59 Tomahawk missiles on Syrian air base in April 2017 over suspected use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime forces.

Iran strongly supported Assad regime since the violence epidemic began eight years ago and provided extensive military aid to Syrian government in the form of training, weapons and intelligence sharing. Tehran also deployed its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and militias to fight the rebel sections in Syria and shield Assad regime.

On September 23, the International Coalition against ISIS entered its sixth year. Since the onset, it has relied on providing support to specific armed factions to gain influence and achieve objectives. Therefore, after five years of its military campaign, irrespective of the fact that Daesh has been completely eliminated or not, the international coalition controls about 70% of the oil and gas reserves in Syria and nobody cares for the civilians.

Accordingly, millions of Syrian inhabitants are trapped in the middle of the scrimmage between Syrian government and the rebels as well as are entombed amid the rivalry of geopolitical and strategic regional and global players.

The “great game” is, therefore, crucifying and routing the Syrians ordinary citizens as they become increasingly the victims of “national interests” of their own administration and foreign interlopers and continue to suffer from massive casualties, rapes, displacements, rising poverty and loss of access to basic human needs such as food, education and medical care.

Hong Kong's High Court ruling on anti-mask law abets violence

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-11-20/Hong-Kong-s-High-Court-ruling-on-anti-mask-law-abets-violence-LLHdddQwOk/index.html

Into the sixth consecutive month, the radical protestors in Chinese Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) have bushed the lives of peaceful citizens, assaulted policemen, vandalized public properties, put a man ablaze and killed a few.

The gadget that aided them the most, in conducting their violent activities, has undisputedly been the face mask. Rioters widely used this cover-up tool to hide their identities from police while committing acts of violence in the China’s autonomous region.

Following repeated petitions by the HKSAR residents, Chief Executive Carrie Lam finally enforced an “anti-mask law” on October 5 to “create a deterrent effect against masked, violent protestors and rioters.” Beijing had also voiced its support for mask prohibition, believing it was indispensible to fight and violent criminal acts and restore social order.

But in a recent grilling move, the HK court ruled that an emergency law revived by the government – to ban protestors from wearing the face masks – was “incompatible with the Basic Law” and overturned the legislation, which was constituted to ensure rule of law.

In addition, the nullification of anti-mask law effectively stemmed Lam administration to fulfill its fundamental administrative responsibility to protect people from violence and rioters and maintain peace and stability in its region.

The court divisive finding invited stern dissatisfaction from the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress, sole legislative body that can analyze whether or not the judgments and decisions were compatible with HKSAR’s Basic Law.

It is pertinent to note that China-UK joint declaration on Hong Kong explicitly spoke that the upkeep of public order in the city will be the responsibility of the HKSAR government; the court decision seriously lacks the substance to back its adjudication ruling and the concerns raised by the Chinese legislative body stands validated.

Where the controversial verdict would limit HK government ability to curb violence, it would provide a legal cover to the rioters to freely conduct their violent and vandalistic activities without disclosing their identity to the HK police. In a completely vague legal background, only the radicals would be stirred but and justice would increasingly fade.

The court’s decision that sent a wrong message to radical protestors also compromised the sovereignty and national security of the city as well as violated the Emergency Regulations Ordinance that empowers the chief executive to “make any regulations whatsoever” on the “occasions of emergency or public danger.”

Since the restoration of peace and end violence is the responsibility of HK government and the city’s police, the decree would help to fuel fanatical actions of rioters and spark increased violence. As a result, the police will be more exposed to petrol bombs and improvised weapons assaults and public avenues will also be much vulnerable to extremists’ activities.

Moreover, the court’s unnecessary involvement in administrative issues could be fatal for the safety and security of HK peaceful residents who have started to become the victims of the radicals and are being set on fire and killed through hard objects hurled by the masked rioters.

The horrific killing of 70-year old cleaner pressed Chinese President Xi Jingping to issue a stark warning to the violent protestors and to assert that the restoring peace and stopping violence was the most urgent task for Hong Kong. Xi also extended Chinese support for Lam administration and urged it to implement policies according to law and punish rioters.

Talking to CCTV, Chief Executive of Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) Ho Iat Seng said “Hong Kong has let people know what rioters are” and raised an important point that many protestors in Hong Kong stress too much on their rights and ignore their obligations.

Adding to Seng’s remarks, the region’s court has endorsed the violent acts of the radical protestors and in fact, boosted them to do whatever they want under the patronage of the judiciary. The rioters would certainly exploit the court’s decision as a justifiable source to expand disorder and take the law of the city in the hands.

If the protestors were peaceful, as they pretend to be, the anti-mask law should have been welcomed by them. But since the radicals were more inclined to trail turmoil in Hong Kong, they strappingly defied the legislation.

And unfortunately, the court also abetted violence by terminating the government’s move that was aimed at reducing riots and distinguish the offenders.

Collapse of the threat of ‘phase one’ trade deal

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2098985/6-collapse-threat-phase-one-trade-deal/

The elongating trade war between China and the United States is continuing to bleed the two largest economies of the world and subsequently ushering a slump to the global economy, which is expected report a growth rate of 3% in 2019.

Despite narrowing trade deficit with China, US trade deficit widened $24.8 billion or 5.8% for nine-month period of 2019. Services surplus, the linchpin of the US foreign trade, was downed $20 billion or 10.1% on the back of increased services imports for January-September.

China’s customs also showed that the country’s international trade was contracted by 2.5% for January to October. Although exports were roughly flat at -0.2%, the imports fell sharply by 5.1% year-on-year, to about $1.7 trillion in the first ten months of 2019.

Since weakened Chinese imports ended up in over $92 billion of fewer Chinese imports of goods and services from the world, the decline would drive the global economy to further plunge and increase job losses to the countries exporting goods and services to China.

The flagging Chinese imports epitomized that Beijing has cut its reliance on imported goods and relayed harms to its trading partners. On the other hand, China’s ten-month trade surplus, which soared about 34% to $340.3 billion from last year, showed that its economy remained relatively immune to sustaining significant losses.

Beijing is aware of it falling imports and is therefore actively promoting its innovative China International Import Expo 2019 (CIIE2019) to lift its imports and give an impetus to global trade and economic growth. The responsible Chinese attitude exhibits its readiness to contribute its role as a major global economic stakeholder.

Hassled by the China-US trade war and impelled by vast Chinese market, nearly 200 American companies showcased their products and services in the second edition of CIIE. The American businessmen maintained a cohesive stance that their government should separate politics and business.

American participants of CIIE were increasingly disinclined to endorse the US obsession of intervening China’s Hong Kong affairs and its act of slating Chinese economic model. They were largely of the view that US should not impose their ideology on China.

The businessmen’ sentiments need to be realized and China and the US should step up efforts to wrap up the “Phase One” trade deal. Favorably for the world manufacturers and global economy, the hopes about a potential China-US deal have been piling up every day. However, the rolling back of the tariffs would be crucial for long-lasting and durable trade deal.

On Thursday, Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson Gao Feng urged the sides to simultaneously cancel the tariffs, terming it an important condition for reaching an agreement. White House was also “very, very optimistic” about clinching trade deal to defuse the 16-month trade war nonetheless, Trump Friday remarks “he hasn’t agreed on anything (about tariffs roll back)” could slay the trade talks.

While China has wielded relentless efforts to open up its market for the foreign companies and pledged to increase its imports from the US, it would be extremely inequitable if the Trump administration does not agree roll back tariffs, the root of China-US trade feud.

As tariffs have been the sticking point between China and the US, the promising environment would restore business and investors’ confidence and stabilize global economy. Yet the hawkish elements are in quest of an opportunity to disrupt the trade deal by exploiting tariff cancellation issue.

Pragmatically, the spirit of “Phase One” trade deal was manifestly to annul tariffs slapped by either side, the criticism on rolling back tariffs lacks the nub. Having met all the US preconditions and showing its intent to lift tariffs on American goods, China was inevitably likely to seek US to roll back tariffs.

But the truculent Trump’s aides and opponents are coming up with fierce reproach on China for renegotiating the maiden trade handshake. If the two sides are sincerely committed to sign up a trade pact, they will have to pushback hardcore mentors among themselves, otherwise the hopes to elevate global and the bilateral economies and secure millions of manufacturing jobs would fade briskly.

What does HKSAR need from its people?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)" https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-11-14/What-does-HKSAR-need-from-its-people--LAB3wJu43m/index.html and republished by "China Daily" https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201911/22/WS5dd73f4da310cf3e35579405.html

Hong Kong was one of the world’s safest cities in the world but over the past few months, the foreign-backed social unrest combined with vandalism to the public properties and infrastructure networks has fatally tainted the territory’s image for being a safe city and an important international trade and financial hub.

The ceaseless strife in the Chinese autonomous region has dropped its ranking in the Safe Cities Index from #9 in 2017 to #20 in 2019, plunged GDP by 2.9% in Q3-2019, intensely affected visitors’ arrival, and enormously stifled retail sales and other economic numbers.

Lower the GDP, higher the “economic fever”, so the debilitated growth would hit the wallets of the Hong Kong people in the form of slackened average income. The turbulence would also put a squeeze on new employment opportunities besides slicing existing jobs.

Lurching economic numbers and deteriorating peace conditions are not inhibiting rioters to mend their radical actions. Tolerance seems to have dispelled as the newest footage showed that some of radicals doused inflammable liquid on a pro-peace activist and set him on fire.

It was unfortunate that Chinese President Xi Jingping last week’s call to quell the violence in accordance with law was responded with such a gruesome incident by the rioters, which shook the world and enumerated that the violent protests are inching towards terrorism.

The horrendous incident also flaunted that the radicals have nothing to do with welfare and prosperity of the region’s people and were not campaigning for the so-called “pro-democratic” rights in the region and were pursuing to destabilize and spark havoc to gain international traction.

Candidly, violent protestors should have dispersed immediately after Chief Executive Carrie Lam had shelved the extradition treaty and China had also endorsed its support, respect, and understanding. But since the rioters’ western masters barred them to go back homes, the brutish strikers continued to wreak mayhem in the city.

Violent protestors should feel blessed that their chief executive and the parental Chinese government have shown incredible tolerance and has not yet opted to employ harsh measures such as clampdown, curfew, and large-scale detainments, which are routinely undertaken by the global governments to crush the goaded disarray.

However if the violence continues to burgeon in Hong Kong and the radicals are disinclined to quit their vehement and vandalistic acts, the worsening circumstances could anytime spillover Lam’s forbearance and could induce her to forego the course of her maximum restraint and devise a more strict action plan to ensure peace and stability.

In addition, since the rioters are indisposed to overturn their defiance and engage in a dialogue with Lam administration, the region is threatening to be pushed into such an ultimate turmoil where no one would be able to rheostat the serious consequences..

Therefore, in the face of the continued violence and economic turmoil, the Hong Kong government and residents need to come to light and step up their efforts to denounce and dissuade the violent protests that have reeled their city into chaos and its economy towards “technical recession.”

While it is the fundamental duty of any government to restore peace and stability in its controlled region, it is also the responsibility of the citizens to back and aid their administration to cope with extremism and violence.

Appreciatively, a large number of ordinary Hong Kongers want peace and stability and are fed up of the disruptive activities being carried out by the rioters. The recent online petition, which called for an end to violence and was signed by more than 1.1 million Hong Kong residents, is testimony that a large number of Hong Kongers had strong faith in their government and the basic principle of “One Country, Two Systems.”

Lam administration should take a note from the ordinary Hong Kongers sentiments and increasingly synchronize the people to defuse the volatile situation in the city as no other than they themselves could better help the region to recover from desolation.

The Hong Kong authorities should further focus to forge government-public fusions and exert united and concerted efforts to pull out their region from uncertainty and unrest and prevent the city from becoming another casualty of the “great game.”

US malevolent strategy towards the CPC doomed to disintegrate

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-11-10/U-S-malevolent-strategy-towards-the-CPC-doomed-to-disintegrate-Lv2TxmD31K/index.html

Notwithstanding a series of Chinese benign gestures to untangle the trade war, huge investments, efforts to raise imports of American goods, and precluding fentanyl from flowing into America – the United States is unwilling to see anything good in China and is getting more reproachful of Beijing.

Washington one-eyed version essentially branded Beijing as a US strategic competitor and gave it a faint rationalization to embroil itself in one-sided strategic warfare with People’s Republic of China (PRC) from politics and trade to technology and defense.

Trump administration’s steady and persistent moves to slap tariffs on Chinese goods, restrictions on Mainland’s technology giants, sanctions on several China’s individuals and entities, and interference in PRC’s internal affairs provide a US paradigm of competing China by all means and at all costs.

US Vice President Mike Pence last month’s redundant “charge sheet” against China – accusing it for human rights violation, curtailment of civil liberties, construction of surveillance state, and increasingly provocative military action and standing for “democratic rights” of Hong Kong and Taiwan – epitomize that US is finding it increasingly difficult to withstand Chinese economic, military, and technological growth.

Lately, the US has transformed its China-strategy that additionally touts to criticize the incumbent Communist Part of China (CPC) in an effort to isolate it from Chinese people. The reformed strategy intends to achieve the same US foreign policy objectives of hurting China across disciplines.

While Pence speech presented the blueprint of the US CPC-focused strategy that threw down the religious card with the prognosis that economic engagement alone will not transmute Communist China’s “authoritarian state into a free and open society” – later on, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lashed out at CPC for being “truly hostile to the United States” and accused it for exporting an “authoritarian system.”

“They threaten the free and open international order by making extrajudicial territorial and maritime claims in places like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait,” Pompeo said in a speech at a Hudson Institute. He alleged that CPC was seeking “international domination” and was pursuing a “global campaign” to sway countries on their side.

Pompeo’s latest speech again blasted China (and Russia) that pose to become the “formidable adversaries” of the US and its allies. He indicted CPC also for “shaping a new vision of authoritarianism”, which Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson described an attack on the “Chinese political system, rendering the so-called Chinese threats filled with ideological prejudice and the zero-sum game thinking of Cold War.”

The US is still riveted by the Cold War nostalgia that secured it a landslide victory over the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan, with the immense help from Pakistan. But Washington fails to realize that Pakistan supported the American Cold War with Soviets over threats to its sovereignty. Since China and Pakistan are strongly tied into an immeasurable deep relationship, the American wishful thinking about Islamabad hurting Beijing interests are doomed to flop right at the Launchpad.

Pence’s and Pompeo’s inimical comments at China indicates the US “good cop, bad cop” strategy in which US President Donald Trump would drive Beijing to enter into a trade deal with Washington and his aides to take on China on areas other than trade war.

The former Indiana governor further blamed that CPC was continuing to reward and coerce American businesses, movie studios, universities, think tanks, scholars, journalists, and state officials to influence the public debate in the US. His assertion only elaborated that Washington China-hatred campaign was falling in tatters and the Americans disallowed the US government’s China defamation crusade.

According to the most recent Chicago Council Poll, conducted in October, found that more than two-thirds Americans (68%) believed that the United States should pursue a policy of friendly cooperation and engagement with China rather to focus on limiting China’s growth.

US, which boasts about the oldest democracy in the world, should pay heed to the thoughts of its own people who largely do not support Trump administration’s harsh stance towards China and in addition, do not see the rise of China as a critical threat to their country.

In conclusion, the United States would not be able to spark differences between the people of China and CPC that has 89 million of strong membership base and under which China has pulled more than 800 million people out of extreme poverty and soared country’s per capita GDP from less than $200 in 1979 to in excess of $9,770 in 2018 – a mindboggling increase of 4785%.

CIIE to boost trade relations and global economic growth

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-11-05/CIIE-to-boost-trade-relations-and-global-economic-growth-LmUH6rHJlu/index.html

Increased Imports are routinely considered virulent for the economy because of their ripple effects such as depleted foreign exchange reserves, trade imbalances, and bigger threats to the domestic manufacturers. All the governments therefore use tariff-like trade irritants to slash their imports to secure financial capitals and protect local businesses.

In addition, there are rarely the economies the world over, which hold the valor to voluntarily open up their market for the other countries, fearing that the greater foreign excess might jeopardize their homegrown agricultural and industrial sectors.

China thinks differently. It has never been short of taking bold measures, quite identical in lines with the priorities to push the country’s exports, to ascend its imports. Beijing audacious move to give greater access to the foreign companies – from small startups of the developing countries to the global developed conglomerates – to showcase their products in the diversified Chinese market is astounding and seldom seen.

At Belt and Road Forum (BRF) in May 2017, Chinese President Xi Jingping announcement to host the inaugural import exhibition, China International Import Expo (CIIE), pledged to expand country’s import competitive base by allowing the foreign countries “to board the train of China’s development.”

The exhibition, marked with the watchword “New Era, Shared Growth” warbled the massive Chinese endeavor to inject vitality in the global economic growth by driving the trade liberalization and facilitation and provided the platform to all countries to enter into the vast import market that is expected to reach $10 billion in next five years.

Aeromobil flying car, Leonardo helicopters, world’s smallest Medtronic heart peacemaker, Jimmy Choo’s diamond-crushed shoes, UPM wood-based renewable diesel BioVerna eco-friendly car, Westcom’s bio-toilets to turn waste into fertilizer, and Nannini’s presbyopic foldable glasses were some of innovative products displayed in the first expo that saw contracts signed worth of $57.83 billion.

The second CIIE, scheduled to be held from November 5 to November 10 in Shanghai, has gained substantial importance in the aftermath of global economic slowdown and China-US trade war. Through CIIE2019, Beijing is set to nurse the global slump by boosting its imports of agriculture, consumer, and components products.

China touts the initiative as part of its efforts to stabilize the foreign trade, improve its policies on tax rebates, trade finance and insurance, and ease restrictions for capital account transactions. In other words, this year’s import expo could stir the global economic recession, which has been rattled by tariff wars across the world.

Beijing’s new development phase – of increased consumption, improved living standards, and enhanced technological growth backed by the largest world’s population and second-largest economy of the world – poses enormous growth potential for imports and consumption and provides technology companies the pitch to expand their footprint in colossal Chinese market.

US tech giants are not going to miss the unique prospect. Facebook and its subsidiary Instagram will be among the 192 US companies taking part in CIIE2019. Though both the US companies are not accessible in China, the world’s largest social media platform hopes to introduce its virtual reality (VR) devices such as Oculus and the related applications in the show.

As other American companies such as General Electric (GE) would present its solution for clean energy and other products and Qualcomm is likely demonstrate its cooperation achievements with Chinese companies in 5G cell phones, internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), and smart cities – China is extending a more coherent and more pliant cooperation with the United States.

Calling the CIIE “an innovative approach that no country has ever tried before to increase imports,” professor of economics Khairy Tourk from Stuart School of Business of Illinois Institute of Technology further said “China is behaving as a responsible global stakeholder.”

Like many other projects, the CIIE is also the brainchild of the Chinese President Xi Jingping who will himself attend and deliver a keynote speech in the inaugural ceremony of the expo when it kicks off on Tuesday.

Xi’s presence and the invaluable Chinese promotion of the exhibition is an assurance to the world that China is committed to further open-up its market for the global products and services and share its development dividends with other countries.

The second successive CIIE arrangement by Beijing and large-scale participation of the foreign countries and global enterprises manifestly demonstrate how profoundly China has volunteered itself for betterment of trade relations and revival of the global economic growth in the face of growing trade tensions.

Moving forward on Afghan talks

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2091703/6-moving-forward-afghan-talks/

In an interview with Bloomberg in October 2018, the stalwart Afghan Taliban supporter Maulana Sami ul Haq called on China to play a greater role in Afghan peace negotiations. While asserting to welcome Beijing as an arbitrator to end the insoluble Afghan conflict, he further said that China should not to “leave matters of such a great importance solely to the US”.

Though there were already backdoor communication links between China and Taliban, yet Maulana stressed on an increased Chinese engagement in Afghan peace process because of its larger stakes in the region.

Exactly after one month of his talk, the 82-year religious academic and “Father of the Taliban” was stabbed to death at his residence in Rawalpindi city of Pakistan. Despite the fact that the veteran cleric no more exists, Taliban did pay a heed to his advice and hailed Beijing’s efforts for “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” negotiations.

In June, before talks fell apart, a Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar went to China to discuss peace prospects in Afghanistan. Last month, another Taliban team met China’s special representative on Afghanistan to renew the peace talks with US.

Pakistan is believed to have brokered all the China-Taliban peace consultations while the South Asian country has exerted immense contributions to bring Taliban on the table with the US however its peace efforts have largely been veiled.

China and Pakistan strongly backed Taliban-US peace talks before Trump tersely busted the dialogue with a volley of his fiery tweets on September 7 after the group claimed the responsibility of killing 12 people including a US soldier in a Kabul bomb explosion.

Last week, the group’s spokespersons Zabihullah Mujahid and Suhail Shaheen in Afghanistan and Qatar respectively claimed that China had invited them to hold talks on restoration of Taliban-US peace talks and to anchor intra-Afghan dialogue with Afghan government officials in personal capacity.

Though Chinese spokesperson declined to confirm the dates of intra-Afghan talks, nevertheless the recent China-Russia-Pakistan-US joint statement is testament that Beijing might anchor peace negotiations between leading Afghan political figures, Afghan government officials, and the Taliban.

Beijing and Islamabad, through Afghanistan-China-Pakistan trilateral foreign ministers’ dialogue has extended widespread support to further strengthening relations, deepening cooperation, and advancing connectivity among the three countries.

While the two countries are making all endeavors that Taliban announce a truce and engage is direct negotiations with Kabul administration, the international community must understand that the peace process in dingy Afghanistan is bound to be complex and exhausting.

Until the recent past, the US hailed a storm of diplomatic blows on Pakistan to club it down for something that was beyond its control. Washington has used to consistently accuse Islamabad for harboring terrorists and providing safe havens to them.

Lately Washington abandoned its hostile attitude towards Islamabad but it needs to realize while all the assailants bade to conquer Afghanistan and not the Afghan hearts, the strategy pushed the conditions in the battle-weary country to further deteriorate. The unprofessed interests have unvaryingly obliterated the land and region, eliciting tensions around the world.

China is coming up with an economic solution to ragged Afghanistan. It is trying to utilize its enormous economic vigor, policy to elude interference in the domestic affairs of other countries, and experience to rebuild infrastructure to overwhelm Kabul’s economic downslide.

According to a research by the World Bank, Afghanistan-adjacent BRI corridor (China-Central Asia-West Asia) can scratch the trade cost by 10.2%. If the border delays were halved, the reduction of shipment times could be lowered by as much as 21.6% as well.

For the US, which has spent about $1 trillion to fight terrorism in Afghanistan and subsequently on rebuilding the country, it would maybe intolerable that China reaps the post-peace economic and strategic gains. Thus, China’s containment in Afghanistan would be the US priority even if it flees Afghanistan.

Since China would be greatly relying on Pakistan, given the historical links and deep-rooted relations between the people of Kabul and Islamabad, for its economic ambitions in Afghanistan – US could press Pakistan to stem Chinese plausible emergence in the Islamic Republic.

But considering the deep Sino-Pak relations and increased Pakistan’s economic and defense reliance on China, Islamabad would in a position not to deliver anything substantial to the US. In addition, Pakistan won’t by any means adhere to US guidelines against China because Prime Minister Imran Khan was a staunch supporter of peace dialogue with Taliban even at a time when they were thought to be “pariahs”.

It would be therefore more sensible if US could sort out the options of Afghan peace with Pakistan than discoursing China’s containment in Afghanistan. Once peace is achieved, US can work with Pakistan, Afghan government, and Taliban for its commercial and strategic interests and economic development of Afghanistan.

Why the US should now proceed to lift tariffs on Chinese goods

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-10-30/Why-the-U-S-should-now-proceed-to-lift-tariffs-on-Chinese-goods-LcRjDr8lgY/index.html

Regardless of the scope and breadth, an affable and emboldened economic, trade, and political environment is crucial for any economy to thrive. Equally the tensed trade situation – such as China-US trade war – holds up the economic growth, shakes the investors’ confidence, threatens capital markets, and risks employments of either of them.

In a trade battle, it is meaningless to gauge the economic suffrage, declining investors; confidence, the scale to which stock markets were tanked, or the number of jobs lost. The bottom line is that all the contending economies and the people around the world are hurt.

Donald Trump has apparently fathomed the economic drawbacks and susceptibilities of the prolonging China-US trade war as the optimistic US president on Monday said that “phase -1” covenant with Beijing was “ahead of schedule”. He also looked very keen to sign “a very big portion” of the China deal quickly.

Chinese President Xi Jingping and the US President Donald Trump would sign “phase-1” deal focusing farmers and banking needs at the upcoming summit of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Chili starting from November 11.

Trump’s remarks came after Chinese and the US officials stepped up the ladder to close parts of trade deal following high-level telephone talks on Friday. Response from the global stock markets was exceptional as they rallied to a 21-month high on Monday. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)’s All Country World Index soared 0.44% to its highest level since February 2, 2018.

The respite in China-US trade frictions boosted the US markets too. On Monday, S&P 500 Index cruised to set a new record, Nasdaq coasted to get closer to its lifetime high of late July, and Dow Jones Industrial Average threatened to break its previous best. Shares of some US-listed Chinese companies’ went up as well. Alibaba and Pinduoduo ascended 4.26% and 2.51% respectively to get through to top-10 gainers of the day.

Dow’s jump of almost superseding its prior best was momentous since the US treasury Department on August 5 touted China a “currency manipulator” after it dropped by 767 points.

But Dow’s latter surge of 4.5% and the recent wheel up established that the alleged yuan-related slump was transitory and Beijing had no role in disrupting US capital markets. Therefore, in order to transpire a constructive ad productive deal, US should prevent to unnecessarily accuse China for unfair trade practices and currency manipulation.

China-US trade truce is making a handful of downbeat effects in currency market as optimism over a trade agreement between Beijing and Washington eased the demand of the greenback (US dollar), which slipped 0.09% against a basket of six major currencies on the day.

With the recent dollar slid, the Trump administration could see the episode a healthier sign for the American economy as comparatively a stronger dollar could cart implications for US exports and corporate profits and could force the US manufacturers to relocate their plants in foreign countries, resulting in at lost jobs in the country at least for a short-term.

The growing hopes about soothing trade tensions between the two largest economies of the world exhilarated the investors’ confidence who now anticipate the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rate for the third time in 2019.

US farmers would be the biggest beneficiary of China-US partial trade deal. Soon after the phase-1 deal will be signed, American farmers may return to their pre-trade war exports to China. Trump also has much to gain from the deal since a large number of farmers are located in Trump’s political constituencies.

The trade deal would provide a great relief to the US soybean and other agricultural exports, which peaked to $29 billion in 2013 before dropping to only $9 billion last year. The deal would considerably slice US spending on “Market Facilitation Program” that was aimed to blunt the impact of trade war on US farmers and cost US tax payers $16 billion this year, on top of about $15 billion (total $31 billion) in 2018.

Announcing the preliminary trade deal with China on October 11, Trump said that Beijing will make sure some intellectual property protections and increase agricultural imports from the US. In return, the Trump suspended tariff hike on roughly $250 billion of Chinese goods scheduled for October 15 and would agree to import Chinese-made cooked poultry and catfish products.

Positive signals from the global and US agriculture, stock, and currency markets go on to describe the vivacious importance of Chinese and the US convivial trade relationship for their respective as well as for the global economic growth.

Since both the countries are firmly intertwined with each other on trade, the dynamic China-US fusion could spur a substantial progress for both of them and the entire world.

While a complete end of the trade war can easily put the US economy back on target for 3% to 4% growth and the global economy to bounce back towards 5% – Washington should now proceed from tariffs suspension to lifting tariffs on Chinese goods to give a strong impetus to its own and the global economic growth.