By: Azhar Azam
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2107705/6-reconvergence-middle-east/
More than two months after the world’s largest oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia was blitzed and forced to close down – it is still quite blurred where the drones and cruise missiles were stemmed from and why the US Patriot flopped to protect the biggest strategic asset of one of its closest allies.
Immediate pick out for the shocking attacks had to be Iran and so it was as the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo singled out Tehran shortly after the flying objects sneaked through the rich American defense systems to hit Saudi Aramco oilfields.
Innately, the wearying Riyadh-Tehran bilateral relations were another veiled objective of the assaults. And with Iran and Saudi Arabia gruffly staring at each other, the foremost and cardinal goal was met with near-perfect accuracy.
But once the tempers chilled, the two sides seated in quarantine to decipher the recipient of the Tehran-Riyadh standoff. While Iran was screwed up with the crippling US sanctions driving its oil exports to zero and Saudi Arabia was exposed to the vulnerabilities in its US-shielded defense system, the findings must have ended up in that the attacks didn’t favor any of the regional stakeholders and the victor was somewhere thousands miles away from conflict zone.
It was the time to rethink plans, conceive new strategies and figure out of the box solutions. With regional entities onboard, earlier this month Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stretched out to six GCC countries and Iraq – inviting them to join his UNGA-proposed Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) initiative for the stability and security in the region.
Named after the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most vital maritime oil trade route comprising 15 million barrels of oil per day – HOPE is furthered by Tehran as an important forum of dialogue and political negotiations among the nations based on no use of force, settling crisis peacefully, respect each other’s sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs of other countries.
Meanwhile, announcing the peace deal between Yemini President Abdul Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the secessionist Southern Transition Council (STC) – Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman described the “Riyadh Agreement” as an important step towards a political solution to end the four-year bloody war in Yemen.
Iranian last week’s promotion of its HOPE initiative coincided with bracing move by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain to allow their teams to participate in Gulf Cup football tournament in Qatar alongside the visiting teams from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Yemen.
The handshake was a major shift in GCC countries’ foreign policy towards Qatar ever since Riyadh-led regional bloc imposed a blockade on Doha in June 2017. Rifts among the regional countries are likely to ease as the soccer-diplomacy could begin a new era of regional cooperation.
Since HOPE formulates to forge an agreement of non-aggression and non-interference among the regional states, GCC proclivity to Qatar signals a transformed regional approach to distance and disintegrate itself from the US hawkish Mideast strategy.
After reconvergence with GCC and being a key Iranian ally, Qatar can play a constructive role in brokering new Middle East peace plan. On the other hand, Rouhani’s letters to GCC state heads has already opined to spotlight regional peace and shape up multilateral bilateral ties, not letting the US to cause indifference between the neighbors.
The countries in the Persian Gulf have seemingly grasped that billions of dollars of defense spending and arms purchases from the US cannot guarantee peace in the region and they have to get along and tone down the differences for a durable regional security.
Therefore, strained by regional threats and plunging oil prices in the international market, Gulf countries are now looking to resolve the disputes such as Yemeni war and bilateral tensions through political and peaceful means to rejuvenate their economies.
US interests in the Mideast have tremendously reduced, especially following its self-reliance in meeting vast domestic energy needs. Gulf is now a largely a region where Washington is gazing at to expand its arms exports for which it seeks to fuel the conflicts.
But GCC economies, which are expected to shrink from 2% in 2018 to 0.7% in 2019 collectively, and Iranian economy also in ruins, would turn out to be a major hitch in the realization of the US regional objective to push frictions and boost its arms sale. So over weakened GDP growth, the stabilization of economy will be the top priority of the regional countries rather than large weapon acquisitions from Washington.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2107705/6-reconvergence-middle-east/
More than two months after the world’s largest oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia was blitzed and forced to close down – it is still quite blurred where the drones and cruise missiles were stemmed from and why the US Patriot flopped to protect the biggest strategic asset of one of its closest allies.
Immediate pick out for the shocking attacks had to be Iran and so it was as the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo singled out Tehran shortly after the flying objects sneaked through the rich American defense systems to hit Saudi Aramco oilfields.
Innately, the wearying Riyadh-Tehran bilateral relations were another veiled objective of the assaults. And with Iran and Saudi Arabia gruffly staring at each other, the foremost and cardinal goal was met with near-perfect accuracy.
But once the tempers chilled, the two sides seated in quarantine to decipher the recipient of the Tehran-Riyadh standoff. While Iran was screwed up with the crippling US sanctions driving its oil exports to zero and Saudi Arabia was exposed to the vulnerabilities in its US-shielded defense system, the findings must have ended up in that the attacks didn’t favor any of the regional stakeholders and the victor was somewhere thousands miles away from conflict zone.
It was the time to rethink plans, conceive new strategies and figure out of the box solutions. With regional entities onboard, earlier this month Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stretched out to six GCC countries and Iraq – inviting them to join his UNGA-proposed Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) initiative for the stability and security in the region.
Named after the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most vital maritime oil trade route comprising 15 million barrels of oil per day – HOPE is furthered by Tehran as an important forum of dialogue and political negotiations among the nations based on no use of force, settling crisis peacefully, respect each other’s sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs of other countries.
Meanwhile, announcing the peace deal between Yemini President Abdul Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the secessionist Southern Transition Council (STC) – Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman described the “Riyadh Agreement” as an important step towards a political solution to end the four-year bloody war in Yemen.
Iranian last week’s promotion of its HOPE initiative coincided with bracing move by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain to allow their teams to participate in Gulf Cup football tournament in Qatar alongside the visiting teams from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Yemen.
The handshake was a major shift in GCC countries’ foreign policy towards Qatar ever since Riyadh-led regional bloc imposed a blockade on Doha in June 2017. Rifts among the regional countries are likely to ease as the soccer-diplomacy could begin a new era of regional cooperation.
Since HOPE formulates to forge an agreement of non-aggression and non-interference among the regional states, GCC proclivity to Qatar signals a transformed regional approach to distance and disintegrate itself from the US hawkish Mideast strategy.
After reconvergence with GCC and being a key Iranian ally, Qatar can play a constructive role in brokering new Middle East peace plan. On the other hand, Rouhani’s letters to GCC state heads has already opined to spotlight regional peace and shape up multilateral bilateral ties, not letting the US to cause indifference between the neighbors.
The countries in the Persian Gulf have seemingly grasped that billions of dollars of defense spending and arms purchases from the US cannot guarantee peace in the region and they have to get along and tone down the differences for a durable regional security.
Therefore, strained by regional threats and plunging oil prices in the international market, Gulf countries are now looking to resolve the disputes such as Yemeni war and bilateral tensions through political and peaceful means to rejuvenate their economies.
US interests in the Mideast have tremendously reduced, especially following its self-reliance in meeting vast domestic energy needs. Gulf is now a largely a region where Washington is gazing at to expand its arms exports for which it seeks to fuel the conflicts.
But GCC economies, which are expected to shrink from 2% in 2018 to 0.7% in 2019 collectively, and Iranian economy also in ruins, would turn out to be a major hitch in the realization of the US regional objective to push frictions and boost its arms sale. So over weakened GDP growth, the stabilization of economy will be the top priority of the regional countries rather than large weapon acquisitions from Washington.