By: Azhar Azam
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-22/-Namaste-Trump-will-be-an-event-of-pledges-and-reassurances-OhIkzScc5W/index.html
Before making his first trip to India in a couple of days, the US President Donald Trump is vague whether or not he would sign a trade deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, though one thing is sure that any agreement isn’t going to be signed up in near future.
On February 18, he told reporters “We’re not treated very well” by the “tariff king” and expressed his skepticism on signing a trade deal but hoped to do “a very big” one perhaps “before the election.” Now he says “We may make a tremendous deal or maybe we’ll slow it down” and “do it after the election.” Both the leaders had failed to strike an agreement on the sidelines of UNGA annual session in September.
In the absence of a trade deal, the optics of meatloaf lover’s visit is grossly seen in inaugurations, rallies, smiles and waves or just a payback for “Howdy Modi” especially after India’s termination from the US preferential trade treatment last year and recent cancellation of its status as a developing country, restricting its duty-free goods entry.
Trade talks between the major economies bore a Spartan swipe on the back of American demands to grant more access to its farm products and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer called off his outing to New Delhi last week. The US is India’s second-largest trade partner behind China with a bilateral trade of $142.8 billion in 2018.
US president will start his maiden visit from Ahmadabad, the largest city of Indian state Gujarat and Modi’s hometown, where he served as the chief minister at the time of infamous 2002 Gujarat pogrom and was allegedly involved in initiating and condoning the violence that killed, raped, plundered and destructed properties of Muslims.
Trump arrival coincides with a critical juncture when ruling BJP is luring strong international criticism following a series of its discordant moves such as stripping the autonomy of disputed Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), detaining its political leadership and other prominent figures, inflicting about seven months of security lockdown in the valley and passing a religiously discriminatory Citizen Amendment Act.
Indian suspension of the civil rights in Kashmir and the ongoing military crackdown on eight million Kashmiris causing shortage of medicine, communications blackout and rising death toll – has, in particular, stoked intense diplomatic and political tensions with Pakistan alongside intensified fire-exchange incidents across the Line of Control (LOC).
Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan has long sought Trump to play a mediation role in the resolving the core dispute of Kashmir. Although the US president initially offered his profound eagerness to intervene, nevertheless he quickly recoiled after a burly opposition from India and to protect American business and strategic interests in the region.
Same is the case with other major regional and global players including Pakistan’s closest and historic Arab allies, which do not want to blight their relations with the third-biggest oil market of the world and foresee their economic survival in tightening the lips on the plight of millions of people held hostage in Kashmir.
If the US and international community continued to overlook the growing military skirmishes along the LOC – the limited conflict can potentially escalate the risk of military confrontation between two-nuclear armed states. Increasing ethno-religious nationalism and anti-Muslim sentiment in India heighten this possibility as the factors might inveigle India to respond with force.
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan will be a recipe for disaster. While such a tragedy could result in fatalities of up to 125 million people immediately, it would severely impact the global climate and atmosphere in the form of declined surface sunlight, cooled temperature and reduced precipitation – leading to famines and massive starvation worldwide.
So, prevention of an Indo-Pak nuclear war should be the world’s topmost priority that could only be achieved by resolution of J&K spat. Even if the of UN-brokered Simla Agreement, which bars both countries not to alter the status unilaterally, could not be reinstated, ending of Kashmir siege can ease the growing tensions but lack of interest by the global nations is distancing peace from the region by every day.
China, until now, is the only country that has constantly voiced its concerns over the powder keg situation in Kashmir and mounting severities between India and Pakistan. Beijing has repeatedly pressed both the parties to understand the risk of further escalation and seek solution through dialogue.
Chinese stance of peaceful resolution of the squabble on the basis of UN Charter, UN Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements provides an unalloyed solution of J&K dispute and can thwart the global suffrage that could erupt from the deadly consequences of fissile fuel vendetta.
But the apparent US strategy to use the Kashmir row as a bargaining chip between India and Pakistan is making it hard to resolve the decades-old issue. On one side, Washington solicits Islamabad to facilitate peace talks with Afghan Taliban and review its active participation in CPEC, ostensibly to back Pakistan perspective on Kashmir. And on the other side, it is forcing New Delhi to look at Beijing through the American lens in order to endorse its divisive moves in the valley.
As peace and stability in Afghanistan meets Pakistan’s and global interests, Islamabad is unstinting in extending its support for Afghan peace process however since CPEC is vital for the country’s plunging economy, expecting Pakistan to reassess or even slowdown the flagship project is something asking the South Asian nation to offend its own fate.
On the other hand, the flagging economy and the excessive internal engagement would outwit India to dish up the US bellicose objectives in the region. With the most hyped Indo-US strategic partnership is in the soup, the “Namaste Trump” will only be an event of pledges and reassurances by either of the sides.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-22/-Namaste-Trump-will-be-an-event-of-pledges-and-reassurances-OhIkzScc5W/index.html
Before making his first trip to India in a couple of days, the US President Donald Trump is vague whether or not he would sign a trade deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, though one thing is sure that any agreement isn’t going to be signed up in near future.
On February 18, he told reporters “We’re not treated very well” by the “tariff king” and expressed his skepticism on signing a trade deal but hoped to do “a very big” one perhaps “before the election.” Now he says “We may make a tremendous deal or maybe we’ll slow it down” and “do it after the election.” Both the leaders had failed to strike an agreement on the sidelines of UNGA annual session in September.
In the absence of a trade deal, the optics of meatloaf lover’s visit is grossly seen in inaugurations, rallies, smiles and waves or just a payback for “Howdy Modi” especially after India’s termination from the US preferential trade treatment last year and recent cancellation of its status as a developing country, restricting its duty-free goods entry.
Trade talks between the major economies bore a Spartan swipe on the back of American demands to grant more access to its farm products and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer called off his outing to New Delhi last week. The US is India’s second-largest trade partner behind China with a bilateral trade of $142.8 billion in 2018.
US president will start his maiden visit from Ahmadabad, the largest city of Indian state Gujarat and Modi’s hometown, where he served as the chief minister at the time of infamous 2002 Gujarat pogrom and was allegedly involved in initiating and condoning the violence that killed, raped, plundered and destructed properties of Muslims.
Trump arrival coincides with a critical juncture when ruling BJP is luring strong international criticism following a series of its discordant moves such as stripping the autonomy of disputed Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), detaining its political leadership and other prominent figures, inflicting about seven months of security lockdown in the valley and passing a religiously discriminatory Citizen Amendment Act.
Indian suspension of the civil rights in Kashmir and the ongoing military crackdown on eight million Kashmiris causing shortage of medicine, communications blackout and rising death toll – has, in particular, stoked intense diplomatic and political tensions with Pakistan alongside intensified fire-exchange incidents across the Line of Control (LOC).
Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan has long sought Trump to play a mediation role in the resolving the core dispute of Kashmir. Although the US president initially offered his profound eagerness to intervene, nevertheless he quickly recoiled after a burly opposition from India and to protect American business and strategic interests in the region.
Same is the case with other major regional and global players including Pakistan’s closest and historic Arab allies, which do not want to blight their relations with the third-biggest oil market of the world and foresee their economic survival in tightening the lips on the plight of millions of people held hostage in Kashmir.
If the US and international community continued to overlook the growing military skirmishes along the LOC – the limited conflict can potentially escalate the risk of military confrontation between two-nuclear armed states. Increasing ethno-religious nationalism and anti-Muslim sentiment in India heighten this possibility as the factors might inveigle India to respond with force.
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan will be a recipe for disaster. While such a tragedy could result in fatalities of up to 125 million people immediately, it would severely impact the global climate and atmosphere in the form of declined surface sunlight, cooled temperature and reduced precipitation – leading to famines and massive starvation worldwide.
So, prevention of an Indo-Pak nuclear war should be the world’s topmost priority that could only be achieved by resolution of J&K spat. Even if the of UN-brokered Simla Agreement, which bars both countries not to alter the status unilaterally, could not be reinstated, ending of Kashmir siege can ease the growing tensions but lack of interest by the global nations is distancing peace from the region by every day.
China, until now, is the only country that has constantly voiced its concerns over the powder keg situation in Kashmir and mounting severities between India and Pakistan. Beijing has repeatedly pressed both the parties to understand the risk of further escalation and seek solution through dialogue.
Chinese stance of peaceful resolution of the squabble on the basis of UN Charter, UN Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements provides an unalloyed solution of J&K dispute and can thwart the global suffrage that could erupt from the deadly consequences of fissile fuel vendetta.
But the apparent US strategy to use the Kashmir row as a bargaining chip between India and Pakistan is making it hard to resolve the decades-old issue. On one side, Washington solicits Islamabad to facilitate peace talks with Afghan Taliban and review its active participation in CPEC, ostensibly to back Pakistan perspective on Kashmir. And on the other side, it is forcing New Delhi to look at Beijing through the American lens in order to endorse its divisive moves in the valley.
As peace and stability in Afghanistan meets Pakistan’s and global interests, Islamabad is unstinting in extending its support for Afghan peace process however since CPEC is vital for the country’s plunging economy, expecting Pakistan to reassess or even slowdown the flagship project is something asking the South Asian nation to offend its own fate.
On the other hand, the flagging economy and the excessive internal engagement would outwit India to dish up the US bellicose objectives in the region. With the most hyped Indo-US strategic partnership is in the soup, the “Namaste Trump” will only be an event of pledges and reassurances by either of the sides.