The Trump administration should rank its patients and healthcare workers first

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-26/Trump-administration-should-rank-patients-and-healthcare-workers-first-QMKmD0UZyM/index.html

In the United States, there is no universal healthcare – the government doesn’t provide health benefits even to its citizens. The very expensive healthcare, costing around $7,500 to fix a fractured bone or hundreds of thousands of dollars for a comprehensive cancer treatment, drives most people to private hospitals or forces them to buy a health insurance that is mostly tied to the job.

As researchers estimate that 25-43 million Americans could lose their employer-sponsored medical insurance coverage due to Covid-19-related unemployment, at-least one-fourth of these workers and their dependents will become uninsured in expansion states and another 40% in the non-expansion states. Another study suggested that soaring unemployment could decipher into loss of health insurance to almost 27 million people.

Enormous insurance losses and unaffordable healthcare poses serious risks to the lives of millions of Covid-19 patients as they won’t able to get an expensive treatment , clouding US efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus. Perceiving such a threat, the health insurance providers took several doctor and nurse associations, hospitals and business groups onboard and urged Congress to bolster its support for employers, enabling them to continue workers’ insurance coverage.

Top executives in the US insurance companies say that at the most basic level; the people must have access to healthcare if the government is really interested in testing, treating and defeating the pandemic. Although the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has authorized private health insurance to cover the Covid-19 diagnostic testing “at no cost,” but treatment isn’t free and steals as high as $40,000 from patients. Even the $100 billion CARES Act does not provide universal coverage for Covid-19 treatment.

US federal government lacks the tenacity to protect its frontline medical professionals, doctors and nurses, too. While in adjacent Canada, there wasn’t any nurses’ fatalities – it were more than 100 in America. The yawning gap in deaths was traced after nursing leaders from both countries came down to a unanimous conclusion that unlike Canada’s nationalized healthcare system, which places patients and practitioners before profits, American authorities moved the other way and make the most of outbreak.

The prioritization of commercial interest, combined with hospital industry’s failure to provide sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) to the nurses nationwide and Trump’s agenda to save the economy rather than saving people’s lives, roiled the doctors, nurses and patients into a horrific and vulnerable situation.

A National Nurses United (NNU) survey echoed same sentiments from nurses across the US, and showed that the employers didn’t ensure the safety of their medical professionals fighting on the battlefront during the ongoing pandemic. It further found that apart from employers’ chilling and haphazard response, the government officials had floundered too.

When more than 23,000 nurses across all 50 states and Washington DC were asked about their working conditions, 87% of the respondents said that they were reusing a single-use disposable respirator or mask with a Covid-19 patient, 84% complained haven’t being tested for Covid-19 and 72% exposed their skins or clothes to the patients of highly contagious disease.

The enmeshed nurses wailed over the government of world’s richest country that calls them heroes “without even bothering to invest in mass producing N95 respirators and other equipment” to keep nurses alive. “Nurses signed up to care for their patients. They did not sign up to die needlessly on the front lines of a pandemic. Our message to employers and the Trump administration is: Platitudes are empty without protections. For our sake, for the public’s sake—give us PPE,” said NNU Executive Director Bonnie Castillo.

Even though the US federal agency Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warns that N95 respirator “should not be shared or reused,” the frequent use of protective gear by nurses, including 28% of those who had to reuse the so-called “decontaminated” masks with confirmed Covid-19 patients, could be fatal for the saviors of humanity.

Frank Gabrin, first US emergency room doctor to die of coronavirus, told his friend that he was worried of PPE famine in the hospitals he was serving where he had to wash N95 mask to make it last several shifts. Eventually, the two-time cancer survivor caught the virus wearing the same mask four days in a row and succumbed to Covid-19.

The dearth of PPE as well as the shortage of medicine and ventilators in emergency departments forced American College of Emergency Physicians last month to seek support from the US lawmakers directly to protect nation’s patients and healthcare workers.

Dr. Rick Bright, a top government scientist, who alleged in his whistleblower complain that he was sacked in April from the directorship of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for voicing concerns over Trump’s support of hydroxychloroquine, gave grim warnings in his written testimony on Covid-19 to the US Subcommittee of Health, House Committee on Energy and Commerce.

The virologist, labeled “disgruntled employee” by the US president, said that 2020 will be an ominous year for the country as the window of opportunity was closing and if the US failed to develop a national coordinated response, the pandemic “will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illnesses and fatalities.” Bright slammed the US government for its lethargic response on disease and for not ramping up the production of masks, respirators and other critical supplies despite his premonitions in January, February and March.

As the specialist on addressing pandemic outbreaks heralded an “undeniable fact” about the resurgence of Covid-19 this fall that would be greatly compounded by the challenges of seasonal influenza – Trump administration should rank patients, healthcare workers and the national healthcare system first before the US enters into the “darkest winter in modern history.”

Hong Kong people need to protect their city from three-fold challenges

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-18/Hong-Kong-people-need-to-protect-their-city-from-three-fold-challenges-QAOH8AAzAs/index.html

The much-awaited report released by Hong Kong police watchdog, the Independent Police Complaints Council (IPCC), into force’s handling of months of violent protests in Chinese administrated region said that the city may be heading toward terrorism – comparing the “scale of lawlessness with a degree of violence and vandalism not seen in Hong Kong since the riots of 1967.”

It noted that by labeling Police action as “brutality”, the protesters seem to disregard their own violence, vandalism and vigilantism. The Council commented the recent seizures of assault rifles, hand guns and ammunition and materials for bomb making also indicated that the community was being dragged by the protesters into an “era of terrorism.”

A Thematic Study of six Public Order Events (POEs) from 9-June-2010 to March 2020 identified that the protests continued to spread on wider scale and with increasing ferocity of violence and even destruction by the mask-wearing black-clad protestors for almost throughout the period.

The IPCC findings lent grim warning that Hong Kong, which has been the beacon of peace and prosperity for the world, was steadily gripped by violence and moving on the way to terrorism. Under the bleak circumstances, it becomes a collective responsibility of the city’s people to protect their megalopolis from the menace of sadism.

In my article for CGTN on 14-November-2019, I had cautioned that the violent protests were “inching toward terrorism” and urged the peaceful Hongkongers to come to light and step up their efforts to denounce such elements that were trying to disrupt peace in their city. They need to make to the streets again before its gets too late.

While a small group is trying to return the city to violence, following a brief respite due to the coronavirus pandemic, the people should dissuade their malicious intents to challenge government authority, disturb social order, undermine the basic principle of “one country, two systems” and push Hong Kong to the brink of chaos amid thawing economy.

In a historic blow to already declining business activity, Hong Kong economy suffered deepest annual contraction in the first quarter of 2020 since records began in 1974.The city’s GDP withered 8.9% as compared to last year, a third straight quarterly fall for the Asian financial hub whereas unemployment rose to 4.2%.

Tourism industry, one of the major pillars of economy of Hong Kong, which contributes roughly 4% to GDP and accounts for nearly 7% of the total employment, is on the decline too. In April, the visitor arrivals dropped about 100% just as the figure was down by 85.3% for the first four months of 2020.

Though several factors were responsible for this eye-watering and head-scratching regression – the continued social unrest, anti-government protests and open enticement for engagement in “lanchao” – a scorched-earth tactic – by the local violent forces also played a devastating role in botching the economy.

As the global economy started to take a real hit by around the end of March, the drop in the second quarter would be more worrisome and can drive Hong Kong economy into worst recession. Weekend’s plunge of 1.8% in the Hang Seng benchmark, to record its biggest fall in three weeks, signaled a tough economic road frontward on the back of resurging riots.

On Friday, the first rioter was sentenced for a four year jail by the court after he admitted attacking the Legislative Council and pushing police barricades and hurling other object at the officers last year. His confession enumerated that the defendant was guilt-ridden and a little over dozen protesters chanting outside the court were backing a criminal.

The law enforcement agencies and institutions are making fiercely determined and resilient efforts to restore peace in Hong Kong. But they should not be left to fend for themselves by the city’s residents whose life and well-being is seized by a handful of radicals in the wake of so-called democracy calls.

After the coronavirus outbreak, it’s a very much changed world. Nobody knows how long it will have to battle this contagion. With many of the top economies mashed by the Covid-19 in just a few months, the global governments will be forced to shred their geopolitical objectives to profoundly focus on their economic revival.

While all nations would be striving to regain its fortune alongside contending the coronavirus, the people of Hong Kong cannot remain unruffled about their city’s economy that was crashed months before the health crisis due to violence. The radicals too shouldn’t expect their foreign backers to aid them for uproar since the pandemic has turned the global economy upside down and everyone is looking to rebalance its national accounts.

Afghanistan is one of the leading examples where the chilly international response has obliged the warring parties to cooperate. As Taliban has partly “quarantined” their weapons and donned personal protective equipment to fight the disease, the insurgent group is also cooperating with Kabul administration to stem the spread of the disease in country.

The emergence of three locally transmitted cases last week, breaking the streak of 23 days without any infection – serves a warning to the health and life of Hongkongers as well. It raised concerns that the city has not been uncontaminated from the germ and there are potentially clusters in the communities.

In the tensed economic and health environment regionally and globally, there is no room for violence at all and at the same time, the fears of losing Hong Kong opulence are much higher owing to its economic breakdown that started well before the Covid-19 jolted world economy. The Hongkongers can’t be complacent this time again and needs to protect their city from three-fold economic, health and violence challenge that can drive them back to decades behind.

Trump’s Political Hoax Won’t Revive US Economy, Retrieve Jobs

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)":
https://www.globalresearch.ca/trump-political-hoax-wont-revive-us-economy-retrieve-jobs/5712768

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was a hardliner Republican before Trump appointed him the head of American premier civilian intelligence service, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and later on to serve as the top US foreign diplomat.

Although the post he was elevated to is highly demanding and sought him to be well-balanced, the ex-spymaster has overly botched to offload his ham-fisted and parochial instinct that seemed to have dominated in his numerous photo shoots.

During his term so far, his hostile tone has further ruptured US ties with several countries including the US’ European allies. The opening of too many frontages at one fell swoop reveals that he is naive in handling the delicate international relations.

In order to overcome his serious diplomatic lacking, the former army captain greatly banks on incongruous theories and lies. Recently, he accused China for ripping up the US and global economy by not sharing the information it had on coronavirus.

Pompeo trashed all the diplomatic norms and crowed the reprehensible allegations over the killer bug that by not sharing the data, “they (China) failed to comply with their most fundamental obligations as a nation” and then “to cover that up.”

Lately, he has been spreading blunt lies about origin of the virus, alleging that it has emanated from Wuhan Institute of Laboratory. The former intelligence chief has “enormous evidence” about his sham contention but doesn’t “have certainty.”

While the attack on Chinese nation was woeful and unforeseen, it was extremely execrable for a top US foreign delegate to drag the people of other country or the government to justify his shallow claims without providing any evidence at all.

Even though the international analysts and intelligence experts including the intelligence-sharing group of the Five Eyes – including the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada have confirmed it is “highly unlikely” that it was an accident – he continues to parrot his spurious lab theory.

Jeffrey D. Sachs, professor and director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University said that these kinds of charges by Trump administration are “reckless and dangerous” and could drag the world into a “conflict just as Bush Administration’s lies about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq pushed the US into war in 2003.”

In an interview with CGTN separately, he blasted Trump for shifting the blame of his failures on China such as loss of jobs, loss of competitiveness and now the deaths from the Covid-19. “And this is working in the United States, unfortunately, as a political tactic, but it’s a very dangerous one.”

Sachs consistent warnings about the “dangerous” campaign of the Trump administration toward China, led by Secretary Pompeo, tells that the US president and his hawkish advisers are laying the country on a suicidal track for their egocentric and sporadic political ambitions.

By propagating the venomous thoughts, Trump is redirecting his 2020 presidential campaign in lines with 2016 canvassing when he used to smear China to fire emotions of Americans by pledging to reduce trade deficit and relocate the US manufacturing facilities back in the country.

On the other hand, Pompeo, one of the worst US secretaries ever, has been irrationally and rashly knocking Beijing to placate Trump so that he may book a chair in the cabinet of next government. And the whole dirty politicking flits around only one exploitative socket: blame China on the coronavirus pandemic to cover up offending lapses in containing Covid-19.

While the outbreak outsmarts American life and economy – the US federal government cannot escape from its statutory duty to ensure the citizens’ health and protect businesses and thus would eventually be accountable to the people for a chain of bloopers – slackened response to the highly contagious disease that exterminated thousands of people, erased millions of jobs and floored trillion-dollars of economy.

In order to galvanize his election probability amid surging unemployment and tumbling economic numbers, the US president wants to reroute trade war with China. Last Friday, Trump said he was “very torn” about whether to terminate the hard-won phase-one deal with Beijing.

On Monday, a top White House trade adviser Peter Navarro fueled speculation after he said “A bill has to come due for China” and accused it for inflicting tremendous loss to the global economy. “It’s not a question of punishing them; it’s a question of holding China accountable, the Chinese Communist Party accountable.”

The rabble-rousing statement emerged just days after the trade officials from China and the US discussed economic and trade issues including the phase one deal – appreciated the progress on creating the governmental infrastructure necessary to make the agreement a success and pledged to meet their obligations.

Such an act, if committed by the US president, would be a disaster for the US economy and thousands of small businesses that rely on cheap Chinese raw material, as well as manufactured goods, to survive in a highly competitive international market.

As the move would provoke Beijing to slap retaliatory tariffs, American exports to China, which had just started to climb, would immediately take a swipe while millions of domestic farmers, who have put everything at stake on Trump’s advice to buy more land and “huge tractors” and are seeing the farm exports mounting, will be furious too.

Despite the strong wave of coronavirus in the country, Beijing had radically increased its farm imports from the US. In the first quarter of 2020, the US shipments of soybean, meat, cotton and fiber to China witnessed a whopping surge of 210%, 640%, 43.5% and 17% as compared to the same period of last year.

In April, there were reports that China was planning to buy 30 million of crops, mostly from the US, to fulfill its purchase commitments and boost its state stockpiles including 10 million tons of soybean, 20 million tons of corn and 1 million ton of cotton worth of more than $6.25 billion. The US poultry and product exports to China in March were also the largest for any month since August 2013.

While economists have repeatedly shown that the US businesses and consumers are paying the duties Trump enacted on Chinese goods – millions of enraged American businessmen and farmers alongside their families could retaliate in the upcoming US presidential elections, ignoring his spending of more than $23 billion from the US taxpayers’ money to the farmers.

Though the hostile attitude and tariff saber-rattling being actively promoted by the hawkish White House officials may probably help to stoke hatred about China, the political hoax can no way revive US economy or retrieve millions of jobs – which would continue to haunt Trump throughout the rest of his presidential campaign.

China Might be a “Silver Bullet” for Countries in the Middle East. Might Jeopardize Relations with Washington

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)":
https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-silver-bullet-countries-middle-east/5712635

As the Arab states in the Gulf embrace Beijing to ease off their over-reliance on hydrocarbons and diversify economy by seeking Chinese investment and technology, A US official threatened that the shift could jeopardize their relationship with Washington.

Giving a caveat to decades-old American allies, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker warned they “have to weigh the value of their partnership with the United States” and his country wants its partners to “do due diligence.”

The top US diplomat for Middle East sought the regional nations to be wary of Chinese aid, describing it “predatory” and conveyed his concerns over the participation of Shenzhen technology giant, Huawei, in building the 5G infrastructure across the oil-rich region.

Huawei is working in Arabian Peninsula for more than 20 years and by the end of last year, 12 out 77 5G contracts it secured globally were in the Mideast. While Schenker conceded the US lags behind China on the fifth-generation technology, still looking at providing them with the alternatives was quite farcical.

After the reportedly drafting of a new rule by the US Commerce Department to allow domestic companies work with Huawei on setting standards for 5G networks, the eminence of world’s largest telecommunication equipment manufacturer has greatly scooped.

If the US government and industry officials believe that the Huawei placement in the Entity List had put the country at disadvantage, Washington’s expectation from the Gulf nations to restrict their access to the global leader is unwarranted and prying.

Schenker’s allegation about Chinese support to the Middle East is counterfeited too. Beijing’s aid of gloves, masks, reagents and ventilators and deployment of medical experts to the region is aligned with its international commitment with the international world to defeat the coronavirus.

Chinese display of solidarity with the regional countries – including Iran, Palestine, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Algeria and others – is the testament that its indiscriminate cooperation is purely humanitarian, without expecting any political leverage.

Gulf nations have appreciated China for its aid and guidelines that helped them in controlling the spread of Covid-19. Egyptian Deputy Speaker Soliman Wahdan, Palestinian government spokesperson Ibrahim Melhem and Arab League’s Assistant General Secretary Haifa Abu-Ghazaleh all praised Beijing’s timely assistance and experience-sharing that played a key role in limiting losses and containing crisis.

Although China relies heavily on the Mideast oil to meet its massive domestic energy requirement – it has skirted becoming part of any multilateral maritime efforts such as the US-proposed International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), Operation Sentinel, or French-led European Union initiative Operation Agenor to ensure freedom of navigation in Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Oman.

The obvious reason why Beijing turned down the opportunity to become part of these campaigns was that it did not want to stir tensions in the volatile waterways and have always intended to resolve all disputes through political dialogue and peaceful means.

Rebuttal by nearly all of the major EU members – including Belgium, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands – to join the IMSC alliance and launch its own naval effort – in a way backed Chinese stance as the European bloc also coveted to lower tensions in the region.

China too last December conducted joint naval drills with Iran and Russia in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman, which connects to Strait of Hormuz. As it aimed at protection of international trade, countering piracy, rescue operations and sharing tactical experiences – the maneuver could be dubbed entirely routine exercise in accordance with the international law and practices.

Beijing has an economic role in the Mideast though and a very important one. The bilateral trade between the two has grown to $245 billion while in 2018 alone; China had committed $20 billion in loans for reconstruction in the Arab world as well as $3 billion in finances to the banking sector. In Middle East and North Africa (MENA), five of the top ten e-commerce firms are Chinese.

Since China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) endeavors to elevate the comprehensive strategic partnership with Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and across the region – several visits to China by the regional state leaders, including six by Egyptian President Abdul-Fattah Al-Sisi since assuming office in 2014, describe the deepening and strengthening nature of relationship between them.

In addition to providing a mixture of concessional, preferred and commercial loans to support Mideast central banks and fund mega infrastructure projects – the currency swap agreements can help the Gulf nations to eschew the weaponization of dollar, used by the US to slap economic sanctions, and achieve a higher degree of financial stability since Chinese renminbi is set to play a stronger and significant role in international trade and finance.

For conflict-stricken Arab world that is facing economic losses of about 1.2 trillion with 7.1 million workers unemployed due to the Covid-19, China is a silver-bullet that can buy its oil and gas in large quantities and then again pour billions of dollars in loan and investment to build the infrastructure and transform the region’s economy, realizing its ambition of industrialization.

Can Trump force the global supply chain to flee China?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-07/Can-Trump-force-the-global-supply-chain-to-flee-China--QiHzKI61So/index.html

Ahead of the US presidential elections in November, Donald Trump is desperately trying to lift his sharply declining approval ratings that have been falling over his botched response to the coronavirus outbreak and crazy advises about treatment of Covid-19 by injecting bleach or other disinfections.

His real worry is that the only thing he was relying on heavily, the US economy, is headed for a collapse comparable to the Great Depression. With a predicted 50% drop in GDP and 30% rise in the unemployment rate, the economic fragmentation would be a disaster to his popularity in front of campaign for the second term.

As Goldman Sachs forecasted that the global economy has likely bottomed so once health situation eases down, the US president can overhaul his strategy to relocate the country on the path of economic revival. He could also hearken to the bank assurance that if Western economies can manage even a partial recovery relative to China’s economic activity rebound since February – it “would imply brisk sequential activity growth in the remainder of Q2.”

But Trump has favored confrontation over cooperation. Last weekend, he pulled his antediluvian tariff gadget to renew a latest round of trade war with China – toning down the phase-one trade deal that to him has now become of secondary importance to the coronavirus pandemic.

His rhetoric toward Beijing, arguing over the origin of SAR-CoV-2 virus, echoed a shrill rebuttal from the global stock markets which on Monday, smarted biting losses and strengthened the US dollar and pushed gold prices higher.

The speculations around rekindling of tariff war stoked so much fears in equity markets that pan-European STOXX 600 indexes dropped 2.65% while MSCI global stocks gauge shed more than 1%. Dow and S&P 500 on the Wall Street also lost 120.01 and 4.36 points respectively.

Maybe, Trump is confident that the regeneration of trade war would help him to bring back his plunging popularity and earn him a win in the next elections. Nevertheless in the middle of fragile growth projections of the US economy, the likelihoods of waging and winning a tariff feud against Beijing are microcosmic instead it would drive the world’s largest economy to increased turbulence.

Rendering a stark warning to the US president about the serious consequences of slapping tolls on Chinese goods – the US experts, media and businessmen cautioned that American economy was too weak to handle the impacts of a trade war with China and drew its comparison with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act that had triggered tit-for-tat tariffs and exacerbated historic economic downturn in the US.

CNBC Mad Money and host Jim Cramer said it’s really important to recognize that Trump now wants to raise tariffs with 30 million people unemployed. Tech billionaire Mark Cuban dubbed the plan “zero sense” and called on to scrap it immediately, invoking more than 71% Americans were concerned about the impact of Trump’s recent trade policies and tariffs on their household expenses.

Meanwhile, the companies in the US are already bearing the brunt of up to 25% tariffs on $370 billion of Chinese goods despite the phase-one trade deal and are witnessing their sales wiped out. The additional levies would shrink their revenues and ramp up inventories – forcing them to file bankruptcy and further laying off jobs that Trump cannot afford in an election year.

While several bleak economic reports by the US Commerce Department underscore that the new orders of the American-manufactured goods have been dried up in March and could sink further as the virus-sparked disruptions fracture supply chains and depress exports – any blueprint plan to provoke economic tensions with China would be barren and counterproductive for the US economy.

Since the numbers present gloomy picture about the US production, the so-called “turbocharging” initiative, espoused by the hawks in the Trump administration to remove global supply chains from China, is a proposal to overwhelm already stressed US companies that have invested heavily in Chinese low-cost manufacturing.

Although the State officials are mulling over tax incentives and re-shoring subsidies to bribe the US manufacturing firms in China but underlying American economic situation, the cash-strapped organization would turn down any pitch that would incur massive expenditure and mount their manufacturing costs by shifting their production to high-cost United States as they see their revenues plummeting due to the Covid-19.

The pandemic highlighted China’s utility in the global supply chains and its role as the world’s leading manufacturing country, accounting for roughly 28% of the global output in 2018. It is largely because of Beijing’s enormous ability to supply large-scale medical gears, generic drugs, thermal cameras and ventilators that the US is in a position to contend with the spread of the disease.

Under the given circumstances, Trump’s prior belief, the US economy is strong enough to withstand a trade war and he can force global supply chains to flee China, is squeezed by the Covid-19 and in fact has exposed Washington’s reliance on Beijing.

With almost all the Western economies bogged down to the coronavirus, the world needs an impetus from Beijing to reshape the global economy. Chinese strength to quarantine the disease and revive its economy best places it to become the origin of resuscitating the global economic growth and stretches it far away from Trump's tariff reach and intent to remove global supply chains from China.

Afghan violence unveils critical pinholes in US-Taliban agreement

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)":
https://www.globalresearch.ca/afghan-violence-unveils-critical-pinholes-us-taliban-agreement/5711933

Just over two months into the “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” between Afghan Taliban and the US on February 29, the conflict-stricken country is witnessing a sharp escalation in violence as the insurgent group has stepped up its attacks on national defense forces.

Between March 1 and April 15, the Taliban militants mounted more than 4,500 attacks in Afghanistan that were 70% more as compared to the same period of last year – Reuters reported on Friday citing several sets of data.

Armed faction spurned the statistics and claimed that their attacks had dropped 54.7% to 537, killing 54.2% fewer members of Afghan security forces. They also accused the US for jeopardizing the agreement by supporting the Afghan military and delaying the release of 5,000 Taliban’s combat and political prisoners, a key part of the treaty.

Even though Pentagon spokesperson Jonathon Hoffman complained that the surge in hostilities was “unacceptably high” and “not conducive to a diplomatic solution” – the recent escalation of violence identified some critical pinholes in the US-Taliban accord that allowed the militants to kill more than 900 local and national forces, almost double from prior year’s 520.

The agreement rested the key agenda of a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire on the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations. In so doing, the US left a crucial vacuum in the pact that permitted Taliban to scale up the attacks and upheaval to prevail in the strife-torn Afghanistan.

John Sopko, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) in his letter to the US Congress accompanying quarterly report faintly touched the issue. "Although not all such attacks are expressly prohibited by the text, U.S. officials had said they expected the level of violence to remain low after the agreement came into effect," Spoko said.

So the “historic” deal, hyped as a gateway to peace in Afghanistan, did not lead the road to an all-inclusive intra-Afghan dialogue. Instead, it constituted a messy environment where neither of the sides was constricted to cut back on violence, the only way to restore stability in the country.

By seeking Taliban to “prevent the use of Afghan soil by any group or individual against the security of the United States and its allies” ONLY – the American envoy deliberately undermined the territorial integrity of regional stakeholders – China and Russia in particular – which also wielded intense efforts to make the negotiations successful.

As Washington bartered its security and lives of the US-led NATO troops for providing a timeline for withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan – the deed was bluntly an exchange of guarantees between Taliban and the US.

Right off the bat, it appeared to be a process of extending pledges rather than a course of a political dialogue in which Taliban clearly had the predominant edge and the US was forced to kneel down and capitulate to the armed group for the safety of its assets and forces.

While Taliban intensifies their attacks, the US may dub the level of strikes against the Afghan military “unacceptably high” and plead for reduction in violence. But it cannot term assaults an infringement of the agreement simply because the arrangement never stipulated the insurgents to cease hostilities.

The key to durable and sustainable peace in Afghanistan was inevitably an all-embracing intra-Afghan dialogue that was scheduled to kick off on March 10 after prisoners swap though yet to kick off. The opacity about the release of detainees has made the prospect of the peace in country much more distant.

In a rare Twitter spat with his Taliban counterpart Zabihullah Mujahid on Saturday, Col. Sonny Leggett of the US military spokesperson in Afghanistan stressed on the necessity of reducing violence and returning to the political path to stem the spread of the Covid-19. Mujahid rejoined with the demand to implement the Doha agreement.

Peace in Afghanistan is in the interest of Afghan people and region and it cannot be achieved without unswerving political interaction and reduction in violence. But it is a matter not to be discussed between the military spokespersons on a social media platform; it should have been deliberated earlier and incorporated in the agreement too.

After shielding its interests, the US signed the covenant in haste to dispense with the Afghan impasse. It didn’t really make a serious effort to persuade Taliban on moderating attacks on Afghan forces that was essentially required for triggering peace in the country.

The typical display of the US behavior, to turn its back on international community or allies after meeting its objectives, had raised doubts over its integrity before and questions its plausibility again as it urges Taliban to pay heed to global call to end violation and focus on the Covid-19.

As Afghanistan sees a spike in the coronavirus patients and Afghan government and Taliban have shown readiness to at least partially release the prisoners to accelerate the peace process and contain the spread of the killer bug – both the sides should slowly cap the role of foreign military intervention in their country and move forward with a political will that is indeed the path to any dispute resolution.

The Covid-19 crisis profoundly exposes African Americans to the scourge of poverty and racism

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)":
https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-profoundly-exposes-african-americans-racism/5711687

They live below the poverty level. They are prison inmates in large numbers. They are most likely to be killed by the police, a longstanding grievance that originated the Black Lives Matter (BTM) movement to protest against police killing and wider issues such as racial profiling, police brutality and racial inequality in the US criminal justice system.

In addition, they are comparatively much less paid. They suffer excessively from job loss and underemployment. They are “essential workers” in service industries, exposing themselves to a range of infections. They are “last hired and first fired.” They face higher death rates and higher prevalence rates of chronic illnesses.

They are African Americans living in the United States of America.

As the Covid-19 subverts the states of the world’s biggest economy, the number of black deaths in the US due to the novel coronavirus is unprecedentedly and disproportionately high and they are dying of the disease in throngs.

Conceding the worst impact of the disease on the ethnic US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said last week that the existing data suggested lopsided burden of the Covid-19 and deaths among the racial and ethnic minority groups, American African being the largest.

Even though the black Americans account for only about 14% of the country’s population, almost 30% of them are affected by the killer bug. Their fatality rate is even higher as nearly one-third of the total deaths caused by the Covid-19 were of African Americans.

Some of the states represent much bluer picture. In Louisiana and Michigan, more than 58% and 41% of those who died of the highly contagious disease were black, although they make only 32.7% and 14.1% respectively.

Likewise in New York City, the death rate of black/African American persons is 92.3 deaths per 100,000 population – which is more than double to that of white. In Chicago, black’s deaths, at 56.5% of the total, were roughly four-times that of white’s.

A pictorial illustration by the National Geographic showed that they are overrepresented when compared to their proportion in the total population. It plainly expressed that the disproportionate death rate has spread throughout the country and was not confined to specific states.

Looking at the shocking black mortality rate, the leaders and health professionals urged the Trump administration to release comprehensive racial demographic data of American Covid-19 victims and devise clear strategies to blunt the devastation on the African Americans.

The statistics may not be surprising given the social determinants of health are widely missing in the US communities of color persons. Coupled with underlying conditions such as diabetes and hypertension – the lack of access to healthcare and poverty has pushed the most vulnerable African Americans to the brink of despondency.

An organization campaigning for inequities confronted by the African Americans and other ethnic and racial minorities – Layer’s committee for Civil Rights Under Law – in its letters to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on April 6 and April 24 called for transparency in the racial deaths but didn’t get any response.

The chilly HHS response raised fears about the growing ethnic intolerance and ambivalence in the US federal government and its tenacious reluctance to safeguard the health and life of its black people, cuing that the country is being divided on xenophobic grounds.

It further sheds light on the excruciating truth that the systemic racism is being implemented nationwide and expounds how African Americans have been subjugated by structural racism, political exploitation and economic exclusion.

Trump administration‘s unwillingness to release the racial breakdown of the Covid-19 cases pressed the Senator Elizabeth Warren to decry its bigotry attitude towards black communities.

“Because of government-sponsored discrimination and systematic racism, communities of color are on the fronlines of this pandemic,” Massachusetts Congresswomen said in a statement.

She teamed up with other Democrats to introduce the bicameral Equitable Date Collection and Disclosure on Covid-19 Act earlier this month and demanded “comprehensive national data,” citing stark racial disparities in the coronavirus cases and fatalities.

The White House deliberately overlooked the humungous threat to the African Americans although the Office of Minority Health at HHS had clear information that the death rate in black Americans has been generally higher than whites for heart diseases, stroke, cancer, asthma, influenza and pneumonia, diabetes, HIV/AIDS and homicide.

So well before the Covid-19 spate, the American government knew that the blacks, living with the chronic illnesses, were prone to the disease. It had the idea that people with these ailments could have the greater risk of hospitalization and death; still it ignored the forewarnings by the health professionals.

Dr. Ebony Hilton, Associate Professor of anesthesiology and critical care medicine at the University of Virginia, said “I knew that the coronavirus would leave a higher rate of death in the African-American community,” “I knew we would be in an uphill battle. I could see the storm coming.”

Racism isn’t restricted to health and social issues being faced by the black Americans; it is bluntly visible in the middle of the US economic downslide and labor market crisis, which is spraining their already flabbergasted economies.

By dint of this racist bend, the African Americans are expected to feature disproportionately in 26 million US jobless claims. As the critical workers have the lowest median net worth, slowest wage growth and bottommost home ownership – the least likelihood of them to be insured and get paid sick leaves make them the most vulnerable community in the US.

Way the varied disparities is persecuting the African American communities in the US, it illuminates that the reason of their compounded health, economic and social problems of is racism.

The Yemeni Quagmire

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)":
https://www.globalresearch.ca/yemeni-quagmire/5711486

A Saudi-led coalition has rejected the enforcement of a “self-administration rule” by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen and called on all the parties to honor the Riyadh Agreement that includes the formation of a technocrat government with equal representation.

Abu Dhabi-backed separatist group earlier scrapped a peace deal with Riyadh-backed government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and declared a state of emergency in its controlled areas including the port city of Aden. For some time, both sides were building up their forces to resume infighting.

Council rationalized the move in the face of government’s “mismanagement, misgovernance, especially in south Yemen, which has been Houthi-less for four years now.”

It additionally accused the Hadi administration for shirking its responsibilities to implement the peace deal however welcomed Saudi Arabia’s role and pledged on “responding to any initiatives it may propose.”

STC withdrawal from the pact is a crippling blow to Riyadh peace deal that was signed in November and hailed by the Kingdom as a major step towards a wider political solution.

Though the treaty drew the two warring parties on a consensus agreement of establishing a unity government, STC’s dissolution of the accord before its implementation could lead into a collapse of the Riyadh Agreement.

At least the anguish in the ranks of internationally recognized Hadi administration tells that the deal might come to a tragic end.

Decrying the violation, the Yemeni foreign minister Muhammad Al-Hadhrami threatened "The so-called transitional council will bear alone the dangerous and catastrophic consequences for such an announcement."

With the latest wearisome rows between the two ostensible allies, one of the world’s poorest countries can drift into a deeper and shaper chaos. But it wasn’t unexpected.

In January, the STC had pulled out of the committees that were responsible for the implementation of the November peace deal, protesting against the violence in Shabwa province linked with the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Hadi’s al-Islah party.

The government dismisses the allegation but separatists’ complaints grind on, making the route of negotiations bumpy and obscuring the fate of arrangement.

All this ensues as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) battle out with Iran-backed Houthis in a separate conflict who in early 2015 overran and captured the capital Sana’a – ousting the Hadi administration and forcing it to declare Aden its de facto capital.

It was the moment that herded Riyadh for military intervention, which didn’t do anything good for the battle-weary country as it continued to grip into further dissent and discord.

After years-long intense shelling, bombardment and fierce fighting that brought no significant change on the ground, Saudi Arabia is exhausted. It now seeks a safe exit from the enervating Yemen war to focus on its fast-flagging economy, being hit hard by plunging oil prices and the Covid-19.

The coronavirus outbreak unbridled a sporadic opportunity to the Kingdom to move away from military adventurism to a political solution. Mining some good out of the evil, the war-tired Saudi-led coalition last month announced a unilateral ceasefire of two weeks in Yemen.

Saudi peddling of the proclamation in a comeback to UN Secretary General’s call and to “reaching a political settlement” and “comprehensive and lasting ceasefire agreement” with Houthis – implied about its remodeled strategy in its neighborhood.

The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen on April 24 extended ceasefire in Yemen by one month to bolster its efforts of containing coronavirus and renew commitment for “to reach a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Yemen.”

As the Houthis has rejected the extension and exacted to lift the air and sea blockades of their controlled areas before agreeing to a truce, the dismissal multiplies the risks of increased violence and the fears that the war is going to reoccupy the nation.

While the armed faction should carefully observe the country’s vulnerability to the coronavirus and forge ahead for a ceasefire and political dialogue – the Coalition must also preclude stage-managing the crisis by apparently withdrawing the troops but firing the conflict by hinging more on the proxies.

UAE, the key Coalition member, in July last year formally announced its exit from the Yemeni riddle and started to hand over responsibilities to its domestic ally STC.

Riyadh would most likely follow the footsteps of Abu Dhabi and withdraw from the devastated state by delegating the task of confronting Houthis to the STC and forces loyal to Hadi administration and engage itself as a political negotiator in the Yemeni conundrum.

The strategy, if pursued, won’t provide any respite to the peace and stability in Yemen, expressly when there is obstinate spat between the two disparate allies, STC and Hadi government.

Last year, the sky-high tensions pressed the latter to accuse UAE of backing a “coup” after new skirmishes flared in August 2019. Following that, Abu Dhabi had to relinquish some key positions in Aden to Riyadh to pave the way for a dialogue between the government and separatists.

Talking about the legitimacy of the Hadi government, Head of the Yemen Department at the London-based Next Century Foundation Catherine Shakdam said “There was an understanding that if he wasn't supported by the international community, then de facto sovereignty would fall onto the Houthi movement."

It is hence in the best interest of all the stakeholders to put a stop to this deadly conflict – which has swiped the lives of more than 100,000 human lives and pushed millions to the brink of famine – and settle their disputes through consultation and political dialogue.

Amid COVID-19, Africa sees surge in terrorist activities

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-26/Amid-COVID-19-Africa-sees-surge-in-terrorist-activities-Q0Dixe1ykE/index.html

The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) on Tuesday lent a grim caveat – cautioning that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could soar from 135 million in 2019 to 265 million in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Africa with 73 million accounted for more than half of the starved population worldwide last year; it would likely be the most affected landmass in 2020 too.

As the deadly lung disease continues to cause tragic human losses and blow up social and economic order across the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on April 17 that Africa could see an its GDP to contract by 1.25% this year – the worst reading on record.

WFP and IMF predictions followed an African Union (AU) study that earlier this month projected some 20 million jobs were at risk in the continent as a result of the intensive economic blow by the Covid19. Even though Africa has generally escaped from the lethal ramifications of the pathogen, the impact on the employment would be staggering.

In addition to experiencing acute food insecurity and several socioeconomic vulnerabilities, the surge of terrorist activities in Africa – particularly the collaborative attacks by the offshoots of Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the parts of Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin region and the Horn of Africa and expanding reach of Al-Shabaab in Somalia and East Africa – pose a significant threat to peace and security in the continent.

People of the impoverished region have paid a high cost of the towering terrorist activities. In February, the UN said amid a devastating rise of five-fold attacks that killed more than 4,000 civilians and military personnel in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger since 2016 – survivors were badly needing safety, food and water “everywhere.”

While the coronavirus pandemic drags the unabridged global attention, the Boko Haram has also stepped up attacks across various parts of West Africa including Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and restive northern part of Egyptian Sinai Peninsula.

Armed groups are visibly taking the advantage of the Covid-19 to expand their influence, spur violence and recruit members.

The viral respiratory illness has a silver lining for the terrorist organizations in Africa. The killing of three Chinese nationals this month in the mining area of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) retold that the extremists took the benefit of Congolese government deflected attention to the coronavirus.

Amid declining GDP, intense job losses, plunging oil prices, shutdown economic activities, stringent social distancing measures and rising terrorism – the 1.3 billion African people are sadistically exposed not only to the scourge of hunger and poverty but also at the risk of falling soft victims to the terrorist outfits.

The worsening circumstances provide a gold-plated opportunity to the radicals to exploit the grouses of the deprived people and incite them for an armed resistance against their governments.

The lack of access to services such as education, healthcare, justice and security delivers an ideal environment for the insurgents to intersect the marginalized groups and buttress their violent extremism.

Brutal and diabolical killing of at least 52 people in northern Mozambique on April 7 for not joining the ranks of the terrorists recapped that Africans are being lured and forced by the branches of the Islamic State.

If the lockdown prolongs for a longer time, there is growing risk that the terrorists might succeed in enrolling the underprivileged and infuriated youth bulges.

The beheading or shooting of the victims is viewed a stronger threat to the country’s 44 billion euro Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) program. It further unveiled the extremists’ strategy to disrupt the peace and prosperity in the Southern African state that is trying to elevate the living standards of its population by attracting foreign investments.

General Stephen Townsend, the commander of US Africa Command earlier this month warned that the terrorist were eying the pandemic as godsend to take advantage from distracted global attention.

“While we might like to pause our operations in Somalia because of the Coronavirus, the leaders of al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab and ISIS have announced that they see this crisis as an opportunity to further their terrorist agenda so we will continue to stand with and support our African partners," Townsend said.

Africa is surely seeing a spike in the coronavirus patients with more than 25,000 confirmed cases and over 1,200 deaths. But don’t forget that it only the forthright challenge Africa is facing; the climbing outbreak is accompanied by the growing terrorism.

On one side, the African people are bottled up by destitution, malnutrition, hunger and now the Covid19 and on the other; they are massacred by the terrorists for rejecting their proposal of armed resistance.

The increased terror attacks by the affiliates of Islamic State and Al-Qaeda describes that Africa is becoming the new epicenter of extremism. This strategic and geographical of the radicals shift is precarious to the pandemic-hit Africa.

Surely, extremism needs to be decimated by strengthening the regional forces but some joint, tangible efforts should also be wielded to culminate the longstanding grievances of the regional people – without which, the dream of sterilizing Africa from terrorism can’t be achieved.

Why Has the Price of Crude Oil Skydived?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "Global Research/Centre for Research for Globalization (CRG)"
https://www.globalresearch.ca/why-has-the-price-of-crude-oil-skydived/5710691

On the back of the unprecedented supply glut, sapped demand and filled storage amid the coronavirus pandemic – for the first time in history, the prices of the US crude oil futures tanked to a negative territory, indicating the producers would pay traders for taking the oil off their hands.

Prices on the May contract expiring Tuesday for the US-benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), dipped 321% to -40.32/barrel while the global standard, Brent crude futures pared brief gains and edged about 9.5% lower at $25.41/barrel.

The June and July WTI contracts also dropped roughly 18% to $20.43/barrel and 11% to $26.18/barrel.

As the spread between May and June contracts, known as front and second month – is now the widest in the history, the downward trend for June and July contracts insinuated the mounting uncertainty and dying investors’ hopes about reopening of the US economy in near future .

Initially, it was disagreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia on production cuts at the OPEC+ forum that exacerbated tensions in the oil industry and stoked price and share war between them. By the time, the two energy rivals downplayed differences and signed an agreement; the Covid-19 went on the rampage to trigger abysmal anxieties in the US crude markets.

The ecstatic US President Donald Trump, claimed to have brokered the deal, popped up on twitter to thank Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz – terming the agreement “big” and “Great deal for all!” that “will save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States.”

But with the pandemic doling out a severe blow to major driver of the US economy, the settlement between Riyadh and Moscow looks antediluvian as the price setback coupled with shelved energy demand poses a significant threat to the jobs of more than 10 million workers associated with the oil industry. Many of whom are already being terminated or furloughed.

So even the historic deal – to steeply cut the oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) and backstop the value decline – did little to stabilize the markets and cannot prevent the WTI from a free fall. That’s because the reduction was not as per the expectations of the president himself and global analyst firms that believed it to be at least 20 mb/d to resuscitate the industry.

How Washington drove Saudi Arabia into the deal is controversial too. Trump’s push for a production cut was backed by a coalition of US Congressmen that in a threatening letter on April 8, sought the Kingdom “to do its part to bring stability – not further volatility – to global crude oil markets.”

The frictional tone citing threats of suspending the US-Saudi economic and military collaboration and recalling American support to counter “Iran’s malign activity” – emphasized the traditional pattern of Washington’s bulling behavior toward its allies to achieve its interests.

Additionally, the price at which the oil should be sold is vital for the US shale sellers. For the American oil companies, anything less than $40/barrel is perilous for their operations sustainability. If the price of the crude drops below that mark, some producers may decide to stop pumping and the firms may head for bankruptcy. That’s what is happening right now.

Head of shale research Artem Abramov at Rystad Energy says “$30 is already quite bad, but once you get to $20 or even $10, it's a complete nightmare." The comments pronounces how crucial it is for the US companies that oil remains at least around $40/barrel otherwise they won’t be able to survive and many of them could go bankrupt.

OPEC in its most recent monthly statement on April 16 said “The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March.” Contago describes a situation that refers to oversupply and encourages traders to store oil to sell later on, hoping the crudes price to rally.

But with the wiping out US storage capacity, the traders won’t be any more able to buy more oil or even sell existing stocks in sharply condensing domestic oil market. The buyers of front month contracts would hence be forced to take physical delivery of the oil at the end of May that they can’t so they have to sell it now at any price.

Chief commodities analyst at leading Swedish SEB Group Bjarne Schieldrop confirmed the US storage issue referring “very front-loaded” contango, stating “The curves are saying we have a big problem with the storage of oil right now.”

Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research also doubts the US storage capacity to endure the flooding oil and believes that could be full to brim. “The implication is that storage might be more full than thought, or that buyers expect it to be very soon.”

All the US key oil facilities, including its main storage hub and delivery point Cushing, Oklahoma, are weighed down with the excess barrels. Since the end of February, the stockpiles at the largest oil-storage tank farm in the world have increased by nearly 50% to 55 million barrels against its working storage capacity of 76 million barrels. If the critical facility is full, a trader said it would be a “disaster.”

The US needs the consumption to rebound in short term. If it doesn’t and the airlines keep on grounded, cars remain garaged and refineries stay idle for a longer period – there would be tremendous selling pressure on all the traders holding the contracts, adding more weight on the Trump administration to provide support and reopen economy amid pandemic.