A divided Europe is Trump’s soft target

By: Azhar Azam

Since Donald Trump’s ‘landslide’ win in November’s US presidential election, the European Union (EU) has been nervously bracing for a tidal wave that would shake the foundation of the transatlantic partnership and put the bloc’s unity to test.

Within a couple of months, Brussels hastily sealed a trade agreement with four Mercosur countries – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – carried out the biggest overhaul of the EU-Switzerland trade ties and concluded a stalled trade agreement with Mexico to showcase its strength to the tariff man.

In Europe, looming Trump’s tariffs are nudging Berlin and Paris closer, driving the French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz into demonstrating unity to the transactional US president who has lambasted the EU for treating the US "very, very badly" and will stack up obstacles for the European countries.

But the real challenge to the bloc stems from internal divisions. For instance, key European powers, France and Germany, differ on several issues ranging from deployment of troops to Ukraine and nuclear power to the South American deal. Unlike Berlin, Paris has wanted to send troops to the Ukraine war, is committed to build nuclear reactors and abhors the Mercosur accord, believing it would undermine the French farmers with a tide of cheap poultry and beef from Latin America.

Trump's return has forced them to exhibit cohesion; these deep-seated resentments toward each other could dominate their aspiration of forging a joint response against the US. Both Macron and Scholz have weakened politically at home, further dimming the hopes to respond to Trump with one-voice.

Macron is an ardent campaigner of European strategic autonomy; Berlin, irrespective of whoever becomes the next German chancellor, will cling to Atlanticism. Although the former advocates for a “united, strong and sovereign Europe” and later describes Trump as a “challenge,” divergent approaches of the two countries will continue to strain the Franco-German relationship, hampering the EU ability to construct a resilient alliance against Trump.

In Davos, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used the World Economic Forum (WEF) to warn Trump the EU would expand relations “not only with our long-time like-minded friends, but with any country we share interests with.” His speech was disseminated as the European response to Trump’s “America First” presidency.

Yet unfazed by her diplomatic maneuvers, Trump ripped the EU apart with his grandiloquence. In his virtual address at the WEF, he continued to thump the bloc for having "hundreds of billions of dollars" of deficit and not buying the US farm produce and cars and derided the Union’s red tape, pointing to recent multibillion fines on Apple and Google while accusing it of flooding America with millions of vehicles.

Hours after Trump signed an executive order to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, putting America in line with the likes of Iran and Yemen, von der Leyen pitched the climate treaty as a “best hope for all humanity" and boasted of the EU's new partnerships with Mercosur, Switzerland and Mexico in an effort to portray the EU as a unified bloc.

While France-Germany tensions pose a serious threat to pan-Europeanism, EU unity is being further imperiled by the advent of the Eurosceptic, right-wing bloc comprising Hungary, Slovakia, Austria and possibly Czechia. The nationalist leaders such as Italy’s George Meloni, the only EU leader invited to Trump’s inauguration and Hungary’s Victor Orban, a longtime admirer of the deal maker, will also help Trump to split the Union and capitalize on the EU internal weaknesses.

Leaders across the EU are urging to stick together in dealing with Trump’s “zero-sum” trade war. These calls aren’t new. Several European leaders in the past have made such appeals without the European dream of becoming a formidable global force, capable of coping with economic and strategic challenges, coming into fruition.

Brussels has only itself to blame for stranding the bloc into this hapless position. By disregarding the downsides of the Biden administration's China-only tariff policy, the EU submitted to the US and torched its vital tool of strategic ambiguity, which would have helped it to become a major power broker and served as a hedge against the impending Trumpism.

Once Trump returned, the EU found it sheepishly apologetic, geopolitically isolated and strategically limbless in its effort to withstand the US president's tariff barrage and remain globally relevant. The way things are unfolding, Brussels could even struggle to sustain its distinctiveness as a bloc internationally with a possible China-US detente ruining its ambition of making the EU an influential player internationally.

A fragmented Brussels lacks options to brave Trump who has stunned America’s transatlantic allies by asking them to raise their defense spending to a whopping 5% of their GDP and could threaten to upend the US defense and security guarantee if Europe decides to retaliate by hitting America with its own tariffs. With divisions continuing to beleaguer the bloc, the EU is rather a soft target for Trump.

*My aticle (unedited) that first appeared in the "Express Tribune"

TikTok ruling: SCOTUS has failed to protect Americans and U.S. constitution

By: Azhar Azam

Friday's ruling by the Supreme Court of the U.S. (SCOTUS), paving the way for an imminent ban on globally popular app TikTok, comes even as many in the U.S., including lawmakers, say there is "no credible evidence" the app presents a national security threat. A significant number of Americans don't support the ban, which will impact the livelihoods of millions of Americans, and see it as a sign of the massive disconnect between politicians and the public.

Signed by President Joe Biden last year, the controversial Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act requires TikTok to be sold or face a ban. The Biden administration argues the app poses a national security threat while ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, stands firm not to sell its subsidiary.

Now with the SCOTUS rejecting TikTok's appeal, the short video-streaming app has a Jan 19 deadline to divest or face a blackout in the U.S., which will prevent 170 million American users from accessing it.

This is not Washington's first bid to ban TikTok but it failed in the past. In 2020, two judges blocked the ban, ruling that the so-called national security threat was "hypothetical" and that the government "acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner." After the state of Montana passed a ban on TikTok in May 2023, a district judge issued an injuction against it, saying the move "violates the constitution" and "oversteps state power."

The reality is that the app is such a powerful tool that Donald Trump on his campaign trail signed up to it to attract young voters. Even Biden's campaign had a plan to use it to reach out to young voters. The full-throttle use of the app by presidential candidates debunks the notion that it is a national security threat.

In fact, TikTok can be be crucial in raising public awareness on critical issues such as climate change, and it can be used to counter hate crimes and violence, which the U.S. is increasingly grappling with. The app has become a platform for language-learning communities and educators and scholars; it is also an essential forum of expression for underrepresented voices such as people of color and other marginalized groups.

Besides facilitating entertainment and conversation, TikTok is an important source of revenue and job creation. Some 7 million businesses using TikTok are estimated to have contributed $24.2 billion to the U.S. GDP and supported 224,000 jobs in 2023. Banning TikTok would shut down a lot of those small businesses and hurt millions of Americans.

Last month, Trump asked the court to delay the ban so that he could find a "negotiated resolution" that would address the national security concerns while also preserve the rights of tens of millions of Americans. But by backing TikTok's ban, the SCOTUS sends out the message that it doesn't believe in a negotiated solution.

Usually, the SCOTUS takes about three months after an argument to issue a ruling. Yet in this case it did so within a week of the arguments.

TikTok has become a political lever in the U.S. During his first presidential term, Trump signed a pair of executive orders to bar Americans from doing business with TikTok and WeChat, alleging they were tools of corporate espionage. Then Biden expressed similar fears. The question is, if TikTok is a threat to U.S. national security, why did Biden in 2021 revoke Trump's executive order to ban TikTok and WeChat?

There are more instances of double standard. TikTok is accused of collecting Americans’ data and passing it on to the Chinese authorities. But the data TikTok has pales in comparison to what American tech companies collect. Besides, to allay this fear, TikTok shifted all its user data to servers in America. On the other hand, the U.S. has been pressuring its firms to create backdoors in their encrypted messaging apps to gain access to private communications. This is a clear attempt to use every Internet-connected device for enhanced surveillance.

By passing a law to shut down a social media platform, the Biden administration sets a dangerous precedent of unconstitutional government intervention in the corporate sector. This reinforces the belief that America is a threat to global businesses and resorts to questionable means to suppress the nations it perceives as rivals. Washington's actions imply a marked reversal from its so-called Internet policy of openness and free speech and are bound to discourage international firms from entering the U.S. market, fearing similar treatment.

The TikTok ban also has far-reaching consequences for the China-U.S. relationship. America's digital protectionism amplifies the perception of decoupling from China and weaponization of national security concerns to stifle fair competition. This, besides complicating the bilateral relationship described as the most important relationship in the world, could force Beijing to take retaliatory actions to safeguard its interests.

In this era of global community, the measure will balkanize the global Internet, disconnecting Americans from the rest of the world, and widen the global digital divide, when it is crucial to bridge it to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Hopefully, when Trump assumes office his administration will rectify this. After all, China-U.S. economic and technological cooperation holds the key to defusing tensions and supporting each other's development.

*My article that first appeared at the "CGTN"

Resilient China-Africa partnership: Navigating challenges together

By: Azhar Azam

In a 35th consecutive visit by a Chinese foreign minister to Africa, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi is visiting Namibia, the Republic of the Congo, Chad and Nigeria between January 5 and 11.

The China-Namibia ties are rooted in political understanding, cultural cooperation and academic exchanges. Windhoek appreciates China's important role and the impact of Chinese investments in Africa's development. Namibian President Nangolo Mbumba last month described Beijing's relations with the Global South as unique because it always looked to establish win-win cooperation with "no historical hangover" and because China "was never a colonizer in Africa or the Caribbean."

While China's investments in the Husab Uranium Project and Rossing Uranium Mine have contributed to about 7 percent of Namibia's GDP, further financial support of more than 1.5 billion Namibian dollars (about $80.2 million) at the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) last September was committed to helping Windhoek to construct housing facilities for police officers and other future projects as well as bolster its drought relief efforts as part of Beijing's push to promote mutual development and build a high-level community with a shared future.

During the FOCAC summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of the Congo and acclaimed the country's progress in consolidating peace and development under his leadership. Leaders of the two countries later witnessed the signing of bilateral agreements including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and digital economy as the first ladies of the two countries held discussions on promoting healthcare, education and women and children's welfare in Africa.

Beijing's development projects have transformed the Congo's infrastructure landscape, bringing benefits to the Congolese economy and prosperity to the domestic people. The No. 1 National Highway – a key outcome of the FOCAC and widely known as the "Dream Road," linking Brazzaville, the capital, with Pointe-Noire, the economic center – has become an economic lifeline for the Congo by reducing the travel time and distance, transporting about 90 percent of the country major products, generating 10,000 jobs and training more than 4,000 local technicians.

China has been Chad's largest trading and investment partner for quite a few years. Beijing supports N'Djamena in pursuing its independent development path and is committed to playing its role in the country's development. The bilateral relations have been elevated to a strategic partnership. Chad's President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno believes that China's sustained development brings opportunities for his country, Africa and the entire world.

At the FOCAC, leading Chinese companies and institutions signed six memorandums of understanding with Chad in areas such as energy, water, agriculture and infrastructure that would contribute to the country's development and the well-being of its people.

China and Nigeria have maintained warm ties for almost 54 years since 1971 and are locked in a close economic relationship with a bilateral trade volume reaching $1.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5 percent in 2023. Ahead of the FOCAC, Xi and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu held talks, inking several deals including on BRI and elevating bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, demonstrating their commitment to using the strengthened relationship for "robust development, stability and security" across Africa.

In the latest sign of deepening ties, Beijing and Abuja recently renewed a currency swap deal worth over $2 billion. The deal is expected to boost trade and investment between the two countries, ease pressure on Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves, reduce transaction costs and stabilize the country's economy.

In a world plagued by conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, protectionism, political turmoil in several Western countries and economic crisis exacerbated by U.S. hegemony, the China-Africa relationship has solidified through a joint vision of promoting peace in the world, extending respect to each other, increasing economic engagement and pursuing win-win cooperation. Wang's four-nation trip would open new horizons for the China-Africa cooperation, delivering a message of peace, harmony and mutually beneficial development.

It isn't just China's investment and lending that portrays Being as a trusted African partner; it is also China's pledge to share its experiences in poverty alleviation, technology and development that in contrast to the U.S. and other Western powers has won admiration from African leaders. This has made Beijing an inspiration for the countries across the continent.

Wang's trip to Africa not only maintains the long-held tradition of visiting Africa but also aims to put actions behind words by implementing the outcomes of the FOCAC. This consistent and steadfast commitment to the continental people, stability and sustained development will break the ground to forge an all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future for the new era, a partnership that is more resilient and capable of jointly withstanding uncertainties and navigating regional and global challenges toward common prosperity for both sides.

*My article that first appeared at the "CGTN"

Somaliland trading recognition for sovereignty in the Horn

By: Azhar Azam

Situated in the larger Horn of Africa with hundreds of miles of coastline along the Gulf of Aden, bordering Ethiopia to the south and west and Djibouti to the northwest – Somaliland is a self-governing region of Somalia that declared independence from Mogadishu in 1991 but remains unrecognized internationally.

A tectonic shift is taking place recently as the US ambassador to Somalia Richard Riley attended Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi’s inauguration as the new Somaliland President and said that it was “one of the best examples of democracy in action in Africa,” in a signal to build relations with Somalia’s breakaway region.

The same day Abdullahi was sworn in, a Republican Congressman Scott Perry introduced bill in the House to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. Republicans had attempted to pass pro-Somaliland legislation in the Congress but these bills were ultimately rejected by the House and Senate.

This time, the bill could pass given former aides of the US President-elect Donald Trump say that he could recognize Somaliland and the de facto state has shown its willingness to provide the US a military base in the port city of Berbera, which was modernized with the support of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and whose proximity to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait – a critical shipping route that connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden – drastically enhances its strategic value for commercial and military activities and counter China's influence.

In 2020, Somaliland opened a representative office in Taiwan, drawing China’s wrath. Recently, Taipei's Deputy Foreign Minister François Chihchung Wu led a delegation to attend Abdullahi’s swearing-in ceremony. This as well as Beijing’s close ties with Mogadishu and its support of Somalia’s territorial integrity could push the US to consider this proposal.

Somaliland has been offering this facility to other countries in exchange for recognition. In January, its President Muse Bihi Abdi signed a memorandum of understanding with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmad to provide the landlocked country access to the sea on the condition that Addis Ababa at a future date would recognize Somaliland. The deal infuriated Somalia, which labeled it an “aggression” and called his ambassador back from Addis Ababa.

But after Somalia and Ethiopia in a Turkey-brokered agreement agreed to mend ties, ending fears of a wider conflict, Somaliland has now turned to the US for a deal that would earn it the status of a separate country and allow America to establish an intelligence facility in the Horn to monitor arms trafficking, Houthi movements in Yemen and Chinese activities in the neighboring Djibouti.

As the Project 2025, a controversial agenda created by the right-wing Heritage Foundation that is widely seen as a blueprint for the coming Trump administration, has called for "the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the US's deteriorating position in Djibouti,” Somaliland has a better chance to get itself recognized by the US with the right-leaning administration taking over the White House in a few weeks.

The Biden administration has been favoring Somalia over Somaliland yet the policy appears to have changed as it sent a high-level delegation led by Riley and the commander of the US Africa Command Maj Gen Brian Cashman to the region who met both outgoing and incoming Somaliland presidents and discussed peace, stability and prosperity across the Horn, indicating a bipartisan support could grow on Somaliland.

However, there are choppy waters ahead. Egypt, a key US ally in the region – that has closely aligned itself with Somalia, holds deep-seated rifts with Ethiopia over its construction of a dam on the River Nile and is an important mediator between Hamas and Israel – could take the US recognition of Somaliland as betrayal.

Turkey, America’s Nato ally and the other major regional player, would be upset too for it has inked a defense and economic agreement as well as an oil and gas deal with Somalia. Such a move would also elicit from a scathing diatribe from the African Union that has long opposed secessionist movements, believing they would encourage separatists across the continent.

Somaliland’s recognition by Trump would further have far-reaching implications given it would prompt strong reservations from Somalia, a vital America’s ally in the fight against al-Shabaab and the rising threat of Islamic State in Puntland, Djibouti and Eritrea as well as America’s key partners, in addition to Egypt and Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar that are bolstering their engagement with the regional nations and could see tensions in the region as a hazard to their economic and security interests.

The UAE is by far the biggest Gulf player in Africa. While Abu Dhabi has invested $59.4 billion in the continent over the last decade, it is operating a network of logistics platforms and ports in the Horn including Somaliland and Puntland, the two Somali-federated states. The UAE had earlier developed military installations in Eritrea and Somaliland during its military campaign in Yemen, urging Somalia to perceive Emiratis a threat to its unity.

During the cold war, the Horn couldn’t witness sustainable peace and prosperity as the region became a proxy battleground for the US and the Soviet Union with the former seeing the territory as a means of solving its problems such as preventing the advances of the Soviet communism and the latter viewing it as a key to victory over its Western rivals.

Once violent extremism and interstate conflicts shoved the region into a perpetual instability, an intra-regional propensity to choose confrontation over dialogue on access to the Red Sea and inclination to surrender its sovereignty to foreign nations to extract economic benefits have allowed the great and middle powers to jostle for influence across the Horn with some patting distant countries to exploit the opportunity.

As Somaliland trades recognition for sovereignty by tempting America to strengthen its military footprint in the region, this approach would kick off a race in the region where other countries could consider offering their territory to international powers. This would have horrifying consequences for the people and peace in the Horn, which unarguably is one of the poorest regions in the world.

*My article (unedited) that first appeared in the "Express Tribune"

After Britain, will China be next to join CPTPP free trade pact?

By: Azhar Azam

While Trump’s unilateral ways might make it easier for Beijing to rally support, the path to its accession remains littered with obstacles.

*My article that first appeared in "South China Morning Post"