By: Azhar Azam
Though this short-spanned tumult quickly ended into a failed attempt, thanks to thousands of people standing between the coup and President Erdogan, but everyday a new chronicle is released relating to this baffling military coup, mostly pointing towards involvement of the United States.
The analysts refer this staged coup in response to the geopolitical shift in the policy of Tayyip Erdogan; to disengage Turkey from regional disputes and focus on internal issues, economy, and people’s well being. Turkey has been in a process of reconciliation with Russia, the United States’ all-time rival, after the downing of Russian jet last November enforcing Russia to bar trade relations with Turkey.
Turkey impugns a US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, Erdogan’s adversary, for this conspiracy and has repeatedly demanded Washington to extradite him who apparently is indisposed to act so. Whatever is going to happen now but for sure, Russia seems to be a veritable gainer in this entire build-up “as it would lift blockade the West has created against Russian gas supply route (Turkish Stream) to Europe via Ukraine”, a project Washington has opposed invariably.
The signals are already hinting towards hasty repair of Turkish-Russo frayed relations as Tayyip Erdogan meets Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Aug 9. Turkey is NATO member and the United States at the same time also needs Turkey “as a strategic buffer between Russia and the Middle East, just as Europe needs it as a shield against the spillover of instability from the east”.
According to Russian Federal Custom Service data, the trade between Russian and Turkey has declined by over 57% in the first five months of 2016, year-over-year. Turkish authorities now sees shelved Black link, making Turkey a linchpin to Europe’s energy supplies by 2020, possible now if the relations with Russia are improved.
Modern Turkey was founded in 1923 when Mustafa Kemal defeated the Anatolian remnants of the Ottoman Empire who was then privileged as Ataturk (Father of the Turks). Grand Nation Assembly declared Turkey a Republic and Kemal Ataturk the President.
In 1928, Turkey became secular and the clause retaining Islam as state religion was removed from the constitution. In 2002, pro-Islamic “Justice and Development Party (AK)” wins 2002 elections with thumping majority but promises to stick to secular principles of constitution. Turkey has a history of constant military coups since 1960 as well.
Deputy leader Abdullah Gul was named premier who resigned as Prime Minister after AK party head Recep Tayyip Erdogan takes over in 2003. It was the same year when parliament refused to allow the deployment of U.S. forces for Iraq war though permitted U.S. to use Turkish air space.
Under the rule of Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish economy has substantially flourished and befell as world’s 18th largest economy with a GDP of about $800 billion in 2014 whereas per capita income has almost tripled to reach at nearly $10,500 for the same year, from a modest value of $3,500 in 2002. It is also the 7th largest economy in Europe and an active member of G-20, a group of most powerful economies in the world.
Between 2002 to 2012; extreme poverty is Turkey dropped from 13% to 4.5% and moderate poverty curtailed from 44% to 21%, improving the access to health, education and other services for less well-offs. It created some 6.3 million jobs before global financial crisis although unemployment ratio is still around 10.4%.
Turkish GDP growth deteriorated in 2009 to -4.8% but it bounced back strongly reporting a growth of 9.2% and 8.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The average growth realized between 2002-2014 was 4.9% and between 2010-2014, it averaged at 5.4%.
Exports have risen from $113.9 billion in 2010 to $143.9 billion in 2015, down from $157.6 billion in 2014. Likewise imports have also mounted from $185.5 billion to $207.2 billion, down from $242.1 billion. CPI inflation has also slightly increased from 8.17% in 2014 to 8.81% in 2015. Central bank has foreign exchange reserves of $111 billion as of 28 January 2016.
AK Party has set an ambitious target to reach at 10th largest world economy by 2023 – a $2 trillion economy, per capita income of $25,000, and exports of $500 billion. Most of the economists believe that the goals are unreachable but one has to aim high to reach heights.
Turkey graduated from low-income status to lower-middle-income status in 1955 and remained there for half a century before being classified as upper-middle-income country in 2005. World Bank defines lower income country with per capita income in between $1,046 to $4,025 and an upper-middle-class country with per capita income of $4,126 to $12,735.
Sources: Global Affairs Press, Bloomberg, Aljazeera, Al-Monitor, MOD Turkey, CIA Factbook, BBC, World Bank, Istanbul Policy Center