By: Azhar Azam
As Middle East continues to tingle over US-Russia tussle in Syria;
South Asia is quickly emerging into a new geo-politics dais for global powers,
particularly United States aiming to contain growing influence of China in the
region.
United
States conveyed its dissent the moment Pakistan signed various memorandum of
understanding (MOU) with China in wake of Silk Road initiatives, purely
intended to seek its economic growth by a chain of energy and infrastructure
projects, dubbed as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
In
discontent, United States radically reformed its regional strategy to mend ties
with India and maneuver India to confront both China and Pakistan as Pakistan
provides China the passage to potentially touch 65-nations, 4.4 billion people
and control nearly 30% of the global economy.
Pakistan,
underlying United States’ inclination to India, Indian sponsored terror attacks
in Pakistan through Afghanistan soil, and shallow Indian efforts to isolate
Pakistan diplomatically, moved to Kremlin, forming new global strategic
formations. Pakistan is now strategically well placed with off course China,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia.
Afghanistan,
said to be a “Graveyard of Empires”, is yet to be settled out and India’s role
in Afghanistan is inconsequential. It is a land-lock country and the only way
the United States can exit its assets from Afghanistan is through northern
areas of Pakistan.
Though
current Afghanistan government is pro-India but geographically India cannot
access Afghanistan without Pakistan so it is next to impossible for India to
insert an active role in Afghanistan. Moreover, Afghans have resisted against
foreign occupation and interference so United States must need Pakistan, not
India, to devise a workable plan in Afghanistan.
India
failed to realize the long-term consequences distanced itself from its major
global ally, Russia, to execute the US plans in return of trade, strategic, and
defense cooperation such as (Logistics Exchange and Memorandum of Agreement
(LEMAO), Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), Strategic and
Commercial Dialogue (S&CD), and Major Defense Partner (MDP).
India
now gets closer to United States, lagging its oldest partner Russia behind who
supported India across all sectors including regional and international issues
since 1947. This Indian duplicity naturally dismayed Russia and unleashed an
inevitable vacuum in the region and forced Russia to align with Pakistan, its
cold war rival.
Both
the countries have already signed a historic agreement for construction of
North-South gas pipeline by 2020 for supply of 12.4 billion cubic meters per
annum with an investment of US $2-$2.5 billion.
This
project will follow the BOOT (Build Own Operate Transfer) model which would
mean that the project will be built and operated by the manufacturer for 25
years and the company will earn revenue for gas deliveries to recover its
investments and return on investment (ROI) afterwards the project will be
handed over to government of Pakistan.
The
deal will open windows of business opportunities for Russia in multiple non-oil
sectors of not only Pakistan but also its allying countries in the region.
After
a spate of high-level visits by Pakistan armed forces, both countries have also
signed a defense agreement where Russia will provide Mi-35 “Hind-E” attack
helicopters Pakistan aiming at military-to-military relationship. At his visit
to Moscow last year, army chief General Raheel Sharif spent about 16 hours at
an arms expo near Moscow and seemingly has been highly impressive while his
inspection of the weapon systems and the live demonstrations.
The
addition of Mi-35 attack helicopters would certainly boost the military
capability of Pakistan to counter internal and external threats. Furthermore,
Russia also played a vital role in assigning membership of Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) to Pakistan.
Then
there is “Friendship 2016”, first ever joint military exercise between Russia
and Pakistan. Other significance of these military drills is that these have
been conducted at a time when Pakistan-India relations are at nail-biting point
following Uri attack.
Russia,
China’s ally, snubbing Indian plea to cancel the exercise or at-least postpone
in support of India, sent its troops to Pakistan. This event hence changes the
geo-political equation in the region especially when Turkey and Saudi Arabia
bear strategic and diplomatic assaults by the United States whereas Iran, an
ally of both Russia and China, has shown intent to join CPEC.
Indian
analysts embarrassed by the Russian rebuff, term it as “an unfriendly act
against India” and “utter Russian disregard for Indian political
sensitivities.” “India needs to go in for a divorce from this Special Strategic
Partnership which now exists only in name.”
“Russia
did a U-TURN on its earlier declared intentions logically indicates that Russia
has succumbed to Chinese pressure and China is Pakistan’s most vaunted
strategic patron. Chinese pressure would have been intense on Russia so as to
bail out Pakistan from a virtual global isolation.”
“Russian
strategic and political pivot to the China-Pakistan Axis is strategic pivot to
India’s two implacable enemies, namely China and Pakistan. ‘doubly reinforces’
Indian public perceptions that Russia has indulges in a well-calibrated
unfriendly act against India and the Indian people.”
These
quotes give a plain Indian frustration out of Russian move to downplay India
and warm up towards Pakistan for bilateral defense cooperation. However the
article does not spotlight on Indian abrupt spin to the United States away from
Russia.
With
China already a long lasting and trusted ally of Pakistan, the addition of
Russia in the camp would shape a formidable triangle of Pak-Sino-Russo changing
the dynamics of geo-political and geo-strategic positioning.
Pakistan
on the other side has a close relationship with some of the influential Middle
East countries lead by Saudi Arabia, so for Russia; it is not just Pakistan but
also the Middle East is a potential future market to re-stabilize its economy
which has been hit hard by western sanctions after Crimea annexation and
falling oil prices in the world.