China Economy: History, Present, and Future

By: Azhar Azam

China maintains a unique economic system. It starkly encourages and supports domestic companies. It obliges foreign companies to set-up factories and transfer technology to local workforce for operating in China.

It tightly controls stock market, banking sector, and strategically important state-owned enterprises. It has developed supercomputers, top-class universities, splendid infrastructure, and terrific defense system.

The Red Dragon also bans Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, WhatsApp, and YouTube as well as a number of international dailies including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and many more.

Nation’s central bank – The People’s Bank of China – firmly influences yuan to dollar value; mainly to protect its exports to the United States. It does so successfully owing to its much lower cost of living as compared to the United States.

All these administrative, strategic, and infrastructural efforts have matured to bake China into a herculean economic and military power that can essentially challenge the most dominating nation-state in the world, the United States.

China’s GDP growth averaged nearly 10% a year – the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history. Although, its growth rate has slowed down to below 7% but its growth trajectory is still very impressive by current global standards.

This wheeling growth has enormously elevated living standards and pulled more than 727 million people out of poverty. The proportion of population living below $1.90 per day fell from 75% three decades earlier to below 2% in 2013.

Additionally, the strict regulations have calmed WeChat and Weibo to become domestic social media giants and vouched SEOs to realize a profit of 1.72 trillion yuan ($253 billion) at a growth rate of 21.1% in H1-2018.

Incidentally, three of the SEOs have made to second, third, and fourth spots in Fortune Global 500 for 2018, after Wal-Mart. Its Tencent Holdings remained the most-profitable company in China with a profit of over 30%.

China’s Tencent along with its e-commerce platform – Alibaba – each has a market value of about $500 billion which is within a striking range of Facebook’s market cap and just trails behind only Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, and Apple.

From an economic backwater, China has demonstrated an explosive growth to become world’s second-largest economy through introduction of economic reforms and trade liberalization in late 1970s.

It spotted and wakened the napping economic drive by gradual transition from agriculture to industry-based economy and focusing on fixed assets investment (FAI) that is billed at about $10.9 for the first half of 2018.

Through sustainable economic reforms, China encouraged rural enterprises and private businesses, increased government spending, stirred real estate, fostered savings, invested in industrial production, and boosted exports.

BUT the productivity was the most important factor which gave a true impetus to the Chinese growth. The 1997 IMF publication cited that prior to 1978 reforms, nearly 4 in 5 Chinese worked in agriculture; by 1994, ratio was dropped to only 1 in 2.

Reforms expanded property rights and unbridled a race to form small non-agriculture businesses in rural areas. ‘Decollectivization and higher prices of agriculture products also led to more productive farms and more efficient use of labor’.

The instrumental measures lured many workers to out of agriculture – resulting in rapid growth of village enterprises and drawing tens of millions of people from traditional agriculture to higher value-added manufacturing.

However, China is still a developing country as its average per capita income is only a fraction of mature economies – only RMB 23,821 ($3,506) with over 43 million Chinese were poked in below poverty line (<RMB 2,300).

Per capita income of rural households is also very low – RMB 12,363 – as compared urban households’ RMB 33,616.

The growing China’s imbalances are frequently debated in international policy discussions as its external debt continued to increase from Q1-2017 by 7.8% or $132.9 billion – to over $1.8 trillion at the close of first quarter of 2018.

Eyes were lit-up after Beijing recently registered its first quarterly current account deficit for almost 17 years – $34.1 billion as the imports outperformed exports. The previous deficit dates back to 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organization.

In spite of some tailwinds, Chinese economy is rejoicings many headwinds. It is not only maintaining a strong GDP growth but also has achieved upper-income status as well as becoming an utopian place for foreign investors.

In the first half of 2018, China listed a total of 29,591 foreign invested companies (increase of 96.6% y-o-y) that brought foreign capital of more than $68 billion, mostly in high-tech manufacturing industry of the country.

China’s job market also witnessed a positive trend as its urban unemployment rate contracted to 3.83%, lowest for the past few years. As much as 7.52 million jobs were created in urban areas in the first six months of 2018.

In its latest Country Focus, IMF gives a strong economic outlook of China’s economy.

The report stated that after decades of high-speed growth, the government is now on high-quality growth. ‘Even with a gradual slowdown in growth, China could become the world’s largest economy by 2030’.

With 700 million of internet users, including 282 million native users (below the age of 25) – the supportive regulatory and supervisory environment has rallied the large scale China’s market to become a global digital leader, the analysis observed.

The international financial institution applauded growing China’s rebalancing efforts that would increase spending on health, education, and social sectors. The additional spending would be financed by taxes on income, property, and carbon emissions and would also support consumption, and reduce income inequality and pollution.

Global growth is heavily reliant on the China’s economy as well. China consumed about 50% of all copper and aluminum and 60% of total iron ore produced globally in 2016 and 2015 respectively. It accounted for nearly 12% of total global oil demand while it is also a very large buyer of agriculture products.

In order to meet the strong domestic consumer market, China aims to lessen its reliance on exports through its strategic plan ‘Made in China 2025’, embracing German concept of Industry 4.0 or fourth industrial revolution.

Made in China 2025 is a blueprint of upgrading domestic manufacturing industry and transform China into global technology powerhouse in the fields of new advanced information technology, aerospace, automated machines and robotics, modern rail transport, power, and energy equipment, advanced medical products, and energy vehicles.

The country’s development plan seeks to transit from labor-intensive to development of value-added manufacturing and raising domestic content of core components and materials to 40% by 2020 and 70% by 2025.

United States sees the plan contrary to its global trade interests and Trump’s imposition of trade tariffs on Chinese goods is an effort to downplay China’s development of advanced manufacturing products.

Although the United States is fretful of Chinese development of advanced technological goods but candidly China’s sustainable growth is indeed vital for global economies which ‘could benefit from the deeper international cooperation and financial integration of China into global economy’.

South China Sea Row Aggravates Again

By: Azhar Azam

China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea (SCS) in all scenarios short of war with the Unites States – US Navy Admiral Philip Davidson told Senate Armed Services Committee, according to newest CRS Report.

The Admiral also admitted that the Chinese control of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea – could substantially affect US strategic, political, and economic interests in Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere.

In response to Chinese developing strength in South China Sea, the report suggested to consider potential contribution by its allies such as Japan, the Philippines, Australia, the UK, France, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India.

As the United States itself increased its military activity and naval presence in South China Sea and has conducted 6 Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to control the China’s growing influence, let’s look at the background, biodiversity, natural resources, and political and strategic importance of South China Sea.

Background

Geographically, South China Sea (SCS) is a part of Pacific Ocean which extends from the Strait of Malacca in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast.

More than 500 million people from China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam live within 100 miles of its coastline.

Within the South China Sea, the Paracel Islands and Macclesfield Bank have been inciting dispute but the Spratly Islands, contested by six claimants, have the key bone of contention.

China claims over 90% of the contested waters in South China Sea through ‘nine-dash line’ which serves to its ‘historical rights’. The Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are the major parties involved in the conflict apart from Brunei and Malaysia.

Ecosystem, Natural Resources, and Strategic Importance

Skirted with some of the world’s rapidly industrializing countries and navigated with by one of the busiest sea-lanes in the world – the South China Sea is a unique ecosystem and biome of rich natural resources.

It has also many of world’s busiest shipping ports. More than 50% of the world’s oil tanker traffic and merchant fleet sail through its waters. Due to strategic maritime link between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, it becomes a region of vital interest to the naval powers.

The South China Sea has massive amount of biological diversity including over 30% of the world’s coral reefs and many other valuable fisheries. The region is also considered to contain abundant oil and gas reserves.

Trade Transit through South China Sea

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD) estimates that maritime transport handles more than 80% of the global trade by volume and 70% by value. About 60% of maritime trade passes through SCS, one-third of global trade.

China’s economy is firmly knotted with South China Sea as 60% of its trade goes through seawaters. So, any concession on the region would seriously hurt the Chinese exports and economy immediately.

ChinaPower study found that an estimated of $3.37 trillion – 21% of global trade in 2016 – passed through South China Sea. About 40% of China’s waterway trade, valued at $1.64 trillion – transited through South China Sea in 2016.

Japan ($240bn), Germany ($215bn), United States ($208bn), India ($189bn), United Kingdom ($124bn), France ($83.5bn), Brazil ($77.3bn), Italy ($70.3bn), and Canada ($21.8bn) were the main countries with the largest maritime trade through SCS in 2016.

Oil and Gas Reserves

Russian Research Institute of Geology of Foreign Countries study in 1995 estimated that 6 billion barrels of oil, of which 70% would be natural gas, might be located in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea.

USIP Special Report in August 1996 further represented some Chinese experts who proclaimed that South China Sea could contain 130 billion barrels of oil and gas.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, the sea has an estimated of 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas which has watered the mouths of the contesting countries.

Furthermore, the US think tank CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker estimates that 40% of the global liquefied gas (LNG) trade has been transited through South China Sea in 2017 besides 3,200 acres of land created by China in Spratly Islands since 2013.

Latest Developments

The tensions in South China Seas have buckled the concerned countries several times on the threshold of skirmishes albeit enormous diplomatic rallies by the international community on the issue.

In spite of cooling down the tensions between China and the Philippines and Vietnam, another conflict is rolling toward the South China Sea.

Few media reports promulgated that Australia and Britain are considering to sending British aircraft carrier – HMS Queen Elizabeth – to conduct freedom of navigation patrols in response to China’s militarization in South China Sea.

China’s Response on Outside Forces Involvement

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson smelled the threat beforehand and warned the regional countries to maintain due vigilance by outside forces which could steer a row in South China Sea.

Lu maintained that China and other regional countries value the peace in South China Sea and freedom of navigation and security more than non-regional countries – hoping them to refrain from stirring up problems.

Pakistan: Car Sale Increases despite Shaking Economy

By: Azhar Azam

PMLN-rule was contaminated with blend of incompetence, nepotism, and corruption charges which pushed Pakistan into the external debt trap, increased income inequality, and several other financial and social crises.

The extent of fatal consequences caused by these fiend deliberate or accidental errs is hard to measure but for sure it will plague the economy and people of Pakistan for an indefinite period of time.

And the historic ‘Rupee humiliation’ may be just one of the many plights.

Through the course of endless economic turmoil, the uptick in the sale of high-tier car segment (>1000 cc) is another insignia of PMLN’s pro-rich policies which sadistically expose their poor management to effectively regulate the country’s economy.

Pakistan Automobile Industry

If you have been inferring that the common man’s luxury rides – Suzuki Mehran or Suzuki Bolan – are the largest selling cars in Pakistan then you are indeed mistaken.

Ironically, the elite’s picks – Toyota Corolla/Frotuner and Honda City & Civic/BRV – are strongly dominating the automobile market of Pakistan.

Despite a very little beat of 2.4% or 1,264 units – Toyota Corolla was still the largest selling car across all segments with a sale of 51,412 units in FY2018, ended 30 June.

Toyota Corolla along with Honda City & Civic (42,810 units) and Suzuki Swift (4,916 units) wheeled the >1300 cc segment sale to record 99,138 units in the prior fiscal year, according to latest data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).

In addition to this, Toyota Fortuner’s two Jeep variants – currently priced at Rs. 6.1 to Rs. 6.5 million – posted a stellar growth of 204.4%, to 4,186 units in FY2018 as compared to only 1,375 units in the previous fiscal year.

Honda BR-V that’s price starts from Rs. 2.1 million also sold a total of 8,684 units during the same year.

In 1000 cc segment, the sale of Suzuki Cultus and WagonR also increased to 20,483 units and 29,206 units – posting an electrifying growth of 20.4% and 65.3% respectively. This extraordinary increase may however be associated with ride-hailing services.

Although the sale of globally dated Suzuki Mehran also grew by 21.8% or 8,288 units – to 46,221 units in FY2018 and it managed to outrun Honda City & Civic but it still lagged behind Toyota Corolla.

Eventually, a total of 161,697 automobiles of above 1000 cc were sold during FY2018 (July to June) whereas the total cars of below 1000 cc was only 67,959 units. The unit sale is of below 1000 cc cars is nearly 2.4 times less than above 1000 cc category.

In FY, Pakistan automobile market broke the barrier of 200,000 units to note a record 229,656 units of cars (excluding jeeps) in contrast to 185,780 units sold in FY2017 – a growth of 31,006 units or 16.7%.

Suzuki WagonR Tartly Disrupts Pakistan Auto Market

Although Toyota Corolla, Suzuki Mehran, and Honda (Civic & City) have been the top choices of the people in Pakistan but in a span of just few years, Suzuki WagonR has tartly disrupted the automobile market in Pakistan.

In terms of unit growth, the kei car or K-car (light automobile) was the largest selling cars across all segments – registering a unit growth of 11,535 units and at an impressive growth rate of 65.3%, to 29,206 Units.

In February, Pak Suzuki suspended the booking of WagonR VXR for a couple of weeks and VXL for over a month. The experts knotted the step to the clearance of heavy backlog and also to divert WagonR clientele to Suzuki’s other hatchback, Cultus.

At the same time, company’s other variant – Suzuki Mehran – has been under critics’ reproach for being ‘over-priced’ and also for lack of innovation in features. The criticism followed with the rumors that Pak Suzuki has decided to discontinue Suzuki Mehran in 2019. The decades old hatchback will be revamped into 660cc Alto, it is learnt.

It is whispered that Pak Suzuki has assembled 50 units of the new variant which are under different testing, trials, and tweaks. Once it works out all kinds of kinks and possible bugs, Pak Suzuki will launch the new car in the market.

Japanese Automakers Faces Taut Challenge

Hitherto Japanese auto makers – Suzuki, Toyota, and Honda – have greatly dominated the Pakistan automotive market but a few new Korean (Kia and Hyundai) and European (Renault and Volkswagen) players have beating their wings to end their hegemony.

Nissan and United Autos are the other new entrants, expected to launch their cars later this year to blur the three-decade ‘dictatorship’ Suzuki Mehran. Nissan’s Datsun Redi-GO and United’s Bravo are also likely to smash a strong blow to the ‘boss’, Suzuki Mehran.

Ghandhara Industries Ltd. and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. have collaborated under Ghandhara Nissan Limited through manufacturing and licensing agreement for domestic production of Datsun models. The sale of locally manufactured vehicles is expected to start in the fiscal year 2019.

Hyundai Nishat Motor Private limited (HNMPL) is the other joint venture between South Korean Sojitz Corporation and Nishat Group which will set up assembly plant in Pakistan for Hyundai brand vehicles. After two years of project completion, the plant will have the capacity to produce up to 30,000 vehicles per year.

The new collaborations, partnerships, and joint ventures will certainly jeopardize the decades’ old dominance of Suzuki, Toyota, and Honda in Pakistan – obliging everyone to offer low-cost vehicles with advanced features to the consumers. The hitches of delayed deliveries and additional payment will also be purged.

BeiDou Set to Outperform GPS

By: Azhar Azam

Global National Navigational System (GNSS) is a generic term for constellation of satellites or satellite navigation (SatNav) systems which provides positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services on global basis.

Smartphones and in-vehicle systems have greatly increased the use of GNSS devices. GNSS have application in several other areas such as agriculture, aviation, drones, maritime, rail, surveying, and timing & synchronizing.

The GNSS technology was originally developed by the United States for an independent military navigation capability which dates back to the Sputnik era when the US Navy experimented satellite navigation to track its nuclear submarines.

Department of Defense launched its first navigation system with a network of satellites in 1978. This space-based radionavigation system was named ‘Navstar GPS’ which was later retitled as ‘Global Positioning System (GPS)’.

Initially, GPS comprised 24 satellites and it became fully operational in 1993. The system was declared operational in 1995 and has never been deactivated since then. US Air Force is responsible for the operation and maintenance of the system.

GPS is the most prevalent GNSS in the world. It provides two levels of services, civilian and military. Civilian service is freely available to all users around the world however its military service is limited to the US and allied armed forces as well as to the approved government agencies.

As of 12-May-2018, a total of 31 operational satellites were in the GPS constellation. GPS-enables smartphones are typically accurate to with 4.9 meters however high-end GPS users have real-time positioning within a few centimeters and long-term measurements at the millimeter level.

But GPS is only one of the four global satellite navigational systems. The other three GNSS are: GLONASS (Russia), Galileo (Europe), and BeiDou (China), in addition to two regional systems including QZSS (Japan) and IRNSS or NavIC (India).

GLONASS – GLObal NAvigation Satellite System – is the oldest GPS rival. ISS-Reshetnev is responsible for the space complex of the GLONASS. It is a world-wide navigation system that ensures global coverage and 24/7 signal availability.

Like GPS, GLONASS was also designed in 1970s for Russian military and is only the second system around the world to provide global coverage in October 2011. As of 18-July-2018, GLONASS has a cluster of 26 satellites in orbit.

BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) – is a Chinese space infrastructure which is developed by China independently. Previously known as COMPASS, It is being used by China for as a standardized system for national security and enormous other areas.

The technics of BeiDou chips has been increased from 0.35 microns to 28 nanometers whereas the lowest price of a single chip is only 6 yuan. As of now, a total of 65 million chips have been sold in China – generating revenue of 250 billion last year.

Besides providing domestic services in various sectors such as public security, transportation, electric power, fishery, forestry, disaster management, smart city construction, and social governance – BeiDou is quickly going global.

In latest developments, BeiDou is providing an accuracy of with 1 to 2 meters from prior up to 10 meters. Sources say that BeiDou accuracy could be even close to centimeters or millimeters in its encrypted service.

With an estimated of 18 satellites to be launched by 2018, the global network will be more or less built-up. By 2020, more than 30 satellites would have been launched and BeiDou Navigational Satellite System will cover the world.

Galileo is a joint effort of the European Union which is developed by European Space Agency. It provides highly accurate and guaranteed service under civilian control and is interoperable with GPS and GLONASS.

By offering dual frequencies a standard, Galileo is set to deliver real-time positioning accuracy to the meter range. The fully deployed Galileo will consist of operational 30 satellites including 6 in-orbit spares.

QZSS (Quasi-Zenith Satellite System) is a Japanese regional navigation system, operated by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The first generation of QZSS was launched in 2010 and it is planned to expand it constellation to 7 satellites in future.

The service of QZSS is available in Asia-Oceania regions with longitudes close to Japan. It will start to develop its GPS-compatible satellite positioning system in 2018 which will expand its usage to other countries in these regions as well.

NavIC (Navigation for India Constellation) is an Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) which provides positioning system for critical national applications. Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is the overseer of the program.

Cloned from US GPS, it provides two types of services: Standard Positioning Service (SPS) and Restricted Service (RS) and consists of three segments: Ground Segment, Space Segment, and User Segment.

ISRO claims that NavIC is much more accurate than the systems developed by foreign countries. But earlier this month, Indian native SatNav system confronted threats before its commercial rollout in the next few months.

According to ISRO, seven-satellite constellation is sending signals in S-band frequency which is utilized for NavIC systems and also shared by other communication technologies such as Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and long-term evolution (LTE).

How 'll be Nawaz Sharif’s Life in ‘B’ Class Adiala Jail?

By: Azhar Azam

Ousted over corruption charges, Nawaz Sharif has been allotted ‘better class’ or ‘B’ class while it has also been decided to keep Maryam Nawaz in Adiala Jail instead of shifting her to Sihala rest house, according to several media reports.

Last week, the former prime minister and his daughter were convicted on Avenfield Reference by Rawalpindi NAB court. Both the offenders were arrested on Friday night at Lahore airport and afterwards were taken to the court on a chartered flight.

According to Rule 248 of Pakistan Prisons Rules 1978, there are only two classes for under trial prisoners – better class and ordinary class. Nevertheless, A and B class prisoners are referred as ‘Superior Class Prisoners‘, under Rule 250.

What is ‘B’ or ‘Better’ Class

Better class includes such under-trial prisoners who by social status, education, or habit of life have been accustomed to superior mode of living and will correspond to A and B class of convicted prisoners.

Ordinary class includes all others and corresponds to C class. Under trial prisoners who pass matriculation of higher examination is 1st Division are also eligible for better class in jail, with effect from the date of result announced.

Qualifications for ‘B’ Class (Rule 245)

To grant ‘B’ class to a prisoner, the recommending authority has to furnish certain details to the government such as prisoner is casual of habitual, previous convictions, offence and sentence, social and financial status of family, profession of the prisoner, income of the prisoner, academic qualifications.

Accommodation (Rule 252)

Superior class prisoners are kept apart from other prisoners and can be accommodated in rooms or in association barracks set aside from them. Separate confinement is strictly prohibited.

In case of ‘B’ class prisoners; it is not mandatory to keep them separate from ordinary prisoners in factories or at times when they are not required to be in their rooms or barracks.

Tasks (Rule 253)

The tasks are assigned with due regard to the capacity, character, previous mode of life, and antecedents of the prisoners.

Sleeping Outside in Hot Weather (Rule 254)

A and B class prisoner may be allowed to sleep outside their rooms and barracks during the hot weather (1st May to 1st October), subject to arrangements. This facility is however not offered to condemned prisoners of superior class.

Furniture (Rule 255-Amended)

Room are supplied with one cot woven with niwar, one chair, one teapot, one table lamp, one shelf, one ashtray, one wooden rack, and necessary washing and sanitary appliances.

Similarly, association barracks are provided with one cot woven with niwar per prisoner, one large table with benches, shelves, sufficient light for reading (till 10:00 PM), necessary sanitary appliances, latrines, and bathrooms in enclosures.

Commodes may also be provided where flush fittings are not available or the prisoners are accustomed to their use and seek such facility.

Exercise and Games (Rule 256)

Superior class prisoners are allowed for walking, physical exercise, or playing outdoor games such as volleyball and badminton, subject to space in enclosure permits the same. Indoor games are also allowed at the cost of the prisoners.

Sanitary and Bath Arrangements (Rule 257)

Superior class prisoners are legitimized for articles such as jersey, bunyan, hairoil,lota, comb, small mirror, toothbrush, toothpaste, mug, plate, shaving, bathing and washing material, eatables, and other related necessary items, as describes in Rule 75.

Prisoners in associated barracks are provided with one fixed mirror in wall, one hair comb, one soap, one lota, one mug, one towel, one plastic tub for ten prisoners, and a fixed towel hanger in bathroom.

Cooking Arrangements (Rule 258)

In case several superior class prisoners are confined together, a separate cook house or two 'C' class prisoners may be provided to them for cooking their food.

If a superior class prisoner in confined individually, he may be permitted a 'C' class prisoner to cook his food.

Utensils (Rule 259-Amended)

Only 'A' class prisoners are allowed to use their own utensils. Other prisoners are supplied with government provided utensils including one plate, one tumbler, one spoon, and various other items.

Diet, Clothing, and Mosquito Nets (Rule 260-Amended, Rule 261)

Diet to ‘A’ class prisoners may be supplemented at their own expense with extra article of food. Occasional presents of fruits by their relatives and friends are also permitted.

‘B’ class prisoners may also obtain food at their own expense. Other prisoners will be provided diet in accordance with the provided diet scale.

‘B’ class convicted prisoners have also to use the provided clothing and 5cm foam mattress throughout the year. Superior class prisoners may be permitted to use mosquito nets at their own expense.

Facilities for Reading and Electric Fans (Rule 263 and 264)

In addition to books provided in the prison library, a prisoner may have any number of ‘suitable’ books or magazines, up to a reasonable level.

Prisoners may also be allowed to use their own electric fans, if such facility is not available in the ward reserved for them.

Letters and Interviews (Rule 265)

Superior class prisoners are allowed for one letter and one interview a week. The number of persons who may visit a prisoner at any given times should not exceed six. The matter of the letters must be restricted to private affairs only.

However, publication of the matters discussed at interview or of the substance of the letters received from prisoner will terminate or curtail the privilege.

Satellite and Space War Summarized

By: Azhar Azam

A satellite is an object which orbits a planet or star. It could be natural or artificial. For example, earth is a natural satellite because it orbits the sun and similarly the moon is a satellite as it orbits the earth. So, earth and moon are the natural satellites.

Artificial satellite is a man-made object which is launched by human in space to orbit earth. Some take pictures of the planet and help meteorologists to predict weather and predict hurricanes.

Others take pictures of the other planets such as the sun, the black holes, and other galaxies – helping scientists to better understand solar system and universe. Thousands of artificial satellites orbit the earth.

Former Soviet Union was the first country to have successfully launched first-ever artificial satellite – Sputnik 1 (Спутник) – and entered the Earth’s orbit on October 4, 1957.

Its full name was ‘Prosteyshiy Sputnik 1’ which means ‘Elementary Satellite’ or ‘Travelling Companion'. Sputnik 1 was a beach ball sized satellite and its diameter was only about 58 centimeters and it weighed 184 pounds.

From here onward, the space race began.

The news of unmanned Sputnik 1 dropped a ‘bombshell’ on the US administration and shook the Americans. As the ‘Red Baby Moon’ orbited the earth, Americans were dismayed as how Soviets could be much technological superior to the United States.

As the Americans were not yet recovered from the first Soviet’s blow, Soviets gave them another newer space sensation on November 3, 1957. The spacecraft – Sputnik 2 – weighed 250 pounds and carried first-ever live passenger, Laika, a dog.

The technical team of Sputnik 1 was called back from vacation that assembled Sputnik 2 in just one month after the launch of first satellite. The equipment was already developed for dog sounding rocket flights.

A total of three dogs – Albina, Laika, and Mushka – were trained in the flight preperations.

Although the US President Dwight Eisenhower tried to downplay the Soviet’s remarkable lead in space over America but he poured additional funds and resources into the space program to catch up Soviet Union.

In December 1957, the US government suffered yet another embarrassment after its first artificial satellite – Vanguard – exploded on the launch pad. The chagrin served as a vexing reminder of the lack of US military capability against the Soviets.

The United States finally succeeded to successfully launch its first artificial satellite – the Explorer (Explorer 1) – on January 31, 1958. The Explorer was smaller in size to Sputnik; however its launch sent it deep into space.

In the late 1950s, both the Soviet Union and the United States started competing each other for technological superiority and growing stockpile of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).

In 1958, President Eisenhower signed a public order to form a federal agency – National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) – dedicated to space exploration. From 1961 to 1964, NASA’s budget was increased by 500% and involved 34,000 employees.

After the Apollo setback in January 1967 which killed three astronauts – the United States eventually succeeded in its first lunar landing attempt on July 16, 1969 – Apollo 11 – carrying Neil Armstrong, Edwin ‘Buzz’ Aldrin and Michael Collins.

Armstrong became the first human to walk on moon’s surface on July 20, 1960. About 20 minutes later, Aldrin joined him. Armstrong and Aldrin walked on the moon while Michael Collins commanded the Command Module, Columbia.

Although by landing on the moon, the United States effectively won the space race but the success of Sputnik had a major impact on the cold war as it unchecked a row of space and arms race between both the countries.

Eventually, the spacefight between the two countries ended in 1975 but the cold war continued.

Space Collaboration: Pakistan & China Extends Cooperation

By: Azhar Azam

China successfully launched for Pakistan the remote sensing satellite (RSS) – Pakistan Remote Sensing Satellite (PRSS-1) – to the designated orbits on 09-July-2018 to monitor China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Belt and Road Initiative.

The PRSS-1 also accompanied Pakistan’s indigenously built experimental space satellite – Pakistan Technology Evaluation Satellite (PakTES-1A). Both the satellites were launched by Long March-2C/SMA launch vehicle.

Remote sensing is a technology of obtaining information about objects or areas from a distance. It incorporates sensors onboard which record and transmit activities of object or area through satellite, aircraft, balloon or space shuttle.

The agreement of PRSS-1 program was signed between Pakistan’s SUPRCO and China Great Wall Industry Cooperation (CGWIC), a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) in April 2016.

PRSS-1 is based on CAST 2000 Program and is designated and manufactured by DFH Satellite Co. Ltd. (DFHSat) of China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), another subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC).

The remote sensing satellite system has the capability to perform day and night monitoring and encompasses viewing capacity even in clouded conditions. It will make Pakistan self-reliant in multi-spectral imaging and will save hard-money by bringing the crucial space capability at home.

When flies over Pakistan, the satellite can send back real-time images with two best-exported remote sensing cameras. Each of the two cameras has independent image processing, storage, and transmission capability. Its designated life is seven years.

It has the same data transmission system, a mature technology, which is used in more than 20 satellites launched by China – told He Xinyang, vice president of the Xi’an branch of CAST.

The PRSS-1 will outspread economic and defense cooperation between the countries to space collaboration; aiding Pakistan to observe the movements of internal and external security threats in the long run as well.

The information PRSS-1 obtains will also broadly be used in agriculture, urban planning, resource management, mineral exploration, telecommunication, national spatial data infrastructure, and disaster monitoring and management as well as improving border security, surveillance and reconnaissance.

PRSS-1 is the 17th satellite developed by China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) for an overseas buyer and first optical remote sensing satellite sold to Pakistan. Earlier, China had manufactured two remote sensing satellites for Venezuela.

During the development phase of PRSS-1, Chinese scientists have greatly helped to train Pakistan technologists on its operation. French experts also were invited to oversee the manufacturing of the satellite’s key components.

In addition to the supply of satellite, China will also transfer space technology to Pakistan and will provide in-orbit testing, personnel training, and technical support.

Pakistan launched its first satellite, Badr-1, on July 1990 from a Chinese launcher Long March 2E (LM-2E) with objectives to establish infrastructure for future satellite development programs, to test the performance of indigenous developed satellite subsystems, and to experiment in real-time voice and data communications.

In August 2011, Pakistan also launched first communication satellite, PAKSAT-1R, on board China’s Satellite Launch Vehicle from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center to replace the existing satellite PAKSAT-1.

PAKSAT-1R has a lifecycle of 15 years and can provide TV broadcasting, internet and data communication services across South and Central Asia, Eastern Europe, East Africa and Far East.

Smartphone, Tablets, and Game Consoles to Blame for Increased Prevalence of Dry Eye Syndrome (DES) in Children

By: Azhar Azam

Scientists at Aston University have developed an app that can help health professionals to detect dry eye syndrome (DES) – a chronic and incurable eye disease which can lead to regular use of artificial tear drops to keep the eyes lubricated.

The app developed by researchers from Aston University in collaboration with UK industry, can be rolled out across GP surgeries, pharmacies, and can also be used at home.

Dry Eye disease prevails in about 40 million people worldwide and with the widespread use of smartphones and other computing devices; the disease is estimated to grow exponentially in next 10-15 years.

Traditionally considered to be an old people’s disease, DES has affected the children frenziedly over the past few years due to excessive use of screens – which makes them to blink less and increases the rate of tears evaporation.

Smartphones have smaller screens so the short watching distances quickly tire the eyes of the children while such ‘starring-screen’ activities can negatively affect the vision and school performance of the children.

Professor James Wolfsohn of Aston University emphasized the need to do more to understand the health implications of children glued to smartphones, tablets, and game consoles for hours at a time.

An eyelid travels the length of a football pitch to keep the eyes moist. With every blink, healthy eyes spread lubricating tears across the surface of the cornea – nourishing cells and providing a thin layer of protections against the environment, irritants, and bugs.

Dry eyes disease occurs when eyes do not produce enough tears or when tears evaporate too quickly from the surface. The condition can result in vision impairment, and sore and watery eyes which cause great discomfort.

The app incorporates some simple questions and a quick test which measures how long you can comfortably stare at a screen without blinking. It will help the GPs and pharmacists who generally do not have the access to the equipment and expertise to confirm a diagnosis of dry eye, the research noted.

Scientists will be conducting the first large-scale survey of dry eyes in young people at Royal Society Summer Science Exhibition (2-8 July 2018) in London.

Artificial Intelligence Beats Top Doctors 2-0

By: Azhar Azam

2-0 appears to be Soccer World Cup 2018 score line. Although it isn’t but the result is no less than the shocks to the football spectators, provided by the exit of some of world’s top teams – Germany, Argentina, Spain, and Portugal.

BioMind – an artificial intelligence (AI) system – defeated 15 topnotch human physicians by 2-0 in a couple of rounds of competition to diagnose brain tumors and predict the expansion of hematoma or bruises.

It is developed by Artificial Intelligence Research Center for Neurological Disorders at Beijing Tiantan Hospital and a research team from Capital Medical University (CMU).

The newly AI system made correct diagnosis in 87% of 225 cases in 15 minutes against 66% accuracy in 30 minutes, achieved by the top radiologists from across China.

AI system also gave correct predictions in 83% of brain hematoma expansion cases – outperforming 63% accuracy of elite team of doctors from renowned hospital.

Developers trained the AI system by feeding it tens of thousands of archived images related with nervous diseases – enabling it to correctly diagnose over 90% of the common neurological diseases such as meningioma and glioma.

The diagnosis ratio was comparable to senior doctors.

All the case were real and contributed by the hospital, but were never used as training material for the AI, according to the organizer.

The competition was organized primarily to help doctors to learn and interact with the technology of the future rather than letting them down against AI.

Wang Yongjun, executive vice president of Beijing Tiantan Hospital said that the competition is an effort to draw the doctors’ attention towards power of AI – especially for some doctors who are skeptical about artificial intelligence.

Radiologists appreciated the effort and acknowledged that AI is not a threat but a friend which will reduce their workload and push them to learn and improve on skills.

However AI technology is still in embryonic stages on medical pitch and its accuracy lags behind the senior professionals in most cases. At the same time, the machine cannot take into account a number of factors such as patient’s state of health or patient’s family medical history.

Yet in future, it will be like a ‘GPS-guided car’ which will assist the doctors to diagnose and it will ultimately be the human doctor who will make the final decision, experts agreed.

China is pursuing AI applications development plan. In 2017, State Council of China unveiled ‘New Generation Artificial Intelligence Plan’ to becoming a global innovation center in artificial intelligence market of $148 billion by 2030.

Pressed by government, new technologies including AI have now increasingly been used in medical care in China. It is helping doctors to read images, such as lungs scan, for diagnoses at some hospitals in China.

In June, a Swedish company – Elekta – introduced IBM’s Watson for Oncology to provide customized treatment to cancer patients in China. The AI platform has been used in 68 hospitals in China to cure cancer patients.