China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea (SCS) in all scenarios short of war with the Unites States – US Navy Admiral Philip Davidson told Senate Armed Services Committee, according to newest CRS Report.
The Admiral also admitted that the Chinese control of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea – could substantially affect US strategic, political, and economic interests in Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere.
In response to Chinese developing strength in South China Sea, the report suggested to consider potential contribution by its allies such as Japan, the Philippines, Australia, the UK, France, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India.
As the United States itself increased its military activity and naval presence in South China Sea and has conducted 6 Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to control the China’s growing influence, let’s look at the background, biodiversity, natural resources, and political and strategic importance of South China Sea.
Background
Geographically, South China Sea (SCS) is a part of Pacific Ocean which extends from the Strait of Malacca in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast.
More than 500 million people from China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam live within 100 miles of its coastline.
Within the South China Sea, the Paracel Islands and Macclesfield Bank have been inciting dispute but the Spratly Islands, contested by six claimants, have the key bone of contention.
China claims over 90% of the contested waters in South China Sea through ‘nine-dash line’ which serves to its ‘historical rights’. The Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are the major parties involved in the conflict apart from Brunei and Malaysia.
Ecosystem, Natural Resources, and Strategic Importance
Skirted with some of the world’s rapidly industrializing countries and navigated with by one of the busiest sea-lanes in the world – the South China Sea is a unique ecosystem and biome of rich natural resources.
It has also many of world’s busiest shipping ports. More than 50% of the world’s oil tanker traffic and merchant fleet sail through its waters. Due to strategic maritime link between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, it becomes a region of vital interest to the naval powers.
The South China Sea has massive amount of biological diversity including over 30% of the world’s coral reefs and many other valuable fisheries. The region is also considered to contain abundant oil and gas reserves.
Trade Transit through South China Sea
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD) estimates that maritime transport handles more than 80% of the global trade by volume and 70% by value. About 60% of maritime trade passes through SCS, one-third of global trade.
China’s economy is firmly knotted with South China Sea as 60% of its trade goes through seawaters. So, any concession on the region would seriously hurt the Chinese exports and economy immediately.
ChinaPower study found that an estimated of $3.37 trillion – 21% of global trade in 2016 – passed through South China Sea. About 40% of China’s waterway trade, valued at $1.64 trillion – transited through South China Sea in 2016.
Japan ($240bn), Germany ($215bn), United States ($208bn), India ($189bn), United Kingdom ($124bn), France ($83.5bn), Brazil ($77.3bn), Italy ($70.3bn), and Canada ($21.8bn) were the main countries with the largest maritime trade through SCS in 2016.
Oil and Gas Reserves
Russian Research Institute of Geology of Foreign Countries study in 1995 estimated that 6 billion barrels of oil, of which 70% would be natural gas, might be located in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea.
USIP Special Report in August 1996 further represented some Chinese experts who proclaimed that South China Sea could contain 130 billion barrels of oil and gas.
According to the US Energy Information Agency, the sea has an estimated of 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas which has watered the mouths of the contesting countries.
Furthermore, the US think tank CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker estimates that 40% of the global liquefied gas (LNG) trade has been transited through South China Sea in 2017 besides 3,200 acres of land created by China in Spratly Islands since 2013.
Latest Developments
The tensions in South China Seas have buckled the concerned countries several times on the threshold of skirmishes albeit enormous diplomatic rallies by the international community on the issue.
In spite of cooling down the tensions between China and the Philippines and Vietnam, another conflict is rolling toward the South China Sea.
Few media reports promulgated that Australia and Britain are considering to sending British aircraft carrier – HMS Queen Elizabeth – to conduct freedom of navigation patrols in response to China’s militarization in South China Sea.
China’s Response on Outside Forces Involvement
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson smelled the threat beforehand and warned the regional countries to maintain due vigilance by outside forces which could steer a row in South China Sea.
Lu maintained that China and other regional countries value the peace in South China Sea and freedom of navigation and security more than non-regional countries – hoping them to refrain from stirring up problems.