Curbs on Iran and inflating US oil exports

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2065184/6-curbs-iran-inflating-us-oil-exports/

Most hawkish Trump’s aide and staunch advocate of preemptive strikes on Iran, US former national security advisor John Bolton, was ousted from White House but the Trump administration is not short of saber-rattlers yet.

After Saturday’s drone attacks on two major oilfields in Saudi Arabia, US president instantly got a ‘clue’ to identify the “culprit” while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wasted no time to accuse Iran for “unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.”

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Abbas Mousavi clapped back at Pompeo. In his media talk Mousavi said “such accusations as well as blind and futile comments are pointless and not understandable within the framework of diplomacy.”

On Monday, Tehran spurned the “speculation” that Iranian President Hassam Rouhani is likely to meet US President Donald Trump during the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) later this month. Trump also rebuffed Pompeo’s prior avowal that he may meet Rouhani at UNGA with “no preconditions.”

With the latest developments, French President Emanuel Macron’s diplomatic coup at G7 Summit – to brokering a potential meeting between the two presidents – has sank in the Arabian Sea and the “roadmap” of diplomacy that was “sort of been set” has nearly washed out.

Trump veiled and Pompeo blunt allegations on Iran appear to raise the specter of a US military response Iran that would serve to escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf. But as there is no “definite” evidence about Iran’s involvement for coordinated drone attacks on Saudi oilfields, Trump’s craving to avoid and at the same time preparedness for war “more than anybody” is confusing and hints at an inoperable rhetoric.

United States, on several occasions before, has threatened to wage a war on Tehran but realistically the people of Iran have already been in a state of war, maybe even worse than that, due to US economic sanctions particularly after Trump withdrew from 2015 Iran nuclear deal in May 2018.

On paper, medicines and medical equipment and supplies are excluded from the US economic sanctions on Iran. But since the Iranian financial institutions are barred to make transactions with the international world, the ailing people in Iran are essentially pushed into the “ring of death.”

Parsian Bank, the vital conduit for humanitarian trade, was one of the Iranian banks that survived the sanctions by the Obama administration. In October 2018, the US Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) further put a squeeze on Iranians by sanctioning the Parisan Bank, locking up the odd ray of hope for them.

Iran has one of the fastest growth rates of cancer in the world. Every year, about 112,000 new cases of cancer patients including children are reported in Iran. With US sanctions re-imposition, the probability of existence of cancer survivors has significantly dimmed.

In addition, while pharmaceutical companies producing life-saving drugs are largely located in European countries or the US – they vacillate to sell critical medicines and medical devices to Iran over fears that Treasury Department might find some technical or administrative lope-holes to punish them for dealing with Iran.

Although France, Germany, and the United Kingdom launched a barter system, known as INSTEX, to bypass US banking system and to facilitate transactions with Iran – however the swap structure could only provide a limited support for food and medicine to Iranian population owing to US “maximum pressure” campaign to bring Iran’s crude exports down to zero.

As Iranian economy is heavily reliant on energy exports – crude oil and natural gas – the US sanctions have severely impacted the country’s economy and have fueled people’s miseries. As a result of US killing restrictions, Iran’s crude exports have declined 77% since last year while the staggering inflation of more than 40% has radically ascended the prices of foodstuffs in Iran.

In June, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said that country’s oil exports were weaker even than during the Iran-Iraq war in 1980s, when Tehran oil fields were under attack. ”Our situation is worse than during the war,” Zanganeh said. Speaking on national television President Rouhani put it like this “Today the country is facing the biggest pressure and economic sanctions in the past 40 year.”

US sanctions on Iran has allowed America to inflate its crude oil exports by a whopping 60% in just more than one year. When Trump withdrew from Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, the US crude exports were just over 2.0 million barrels per day. But once he reinstated sanctions on Iran and vouched to bring its crude exports down to zero, the US oil exports starkly climbed to about 3.2 million barrels per day in July.

Much of the US crude was exported to the buyers of Iranian oil. Nearly all the buyers of Iranian oil – such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea – are now importing crude from United States. While crude oil accounted for 72% of Europe’s total energy imports in 2018, the sanctions would help US to ratchet up oil exports to European nations.

“Maximum pressure” campaign is inflicting havoc on Iran’s economy. IMF estimates that Iranian economy contracted 3.9% in 2018 after posting a growth of 3.7% and 12.5% in 2017 and 2016 respectively – and is likely to further shrink by 6% this year. The burden of trashing Iranian economy will eventually be endured by the people of the country who would be forced to live a more dismal life.

US crusade on Iran would additionally press Tehran to retrench its public spending – narrowing the federal government’s ability to fund basic human needs of health and education for its public that would mean an increased human toll resulting from American economic sanctions on Iran.

Ladakh: An Indian-US ‘playfield’ to contain China, monitor Russia?

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my articles (unedited) that first appeared in "Daily Times":
https://dailytimes.com.pk/471388/ladakh-an-indian-us-playfield-to-contain-china-monitor-russia/

Donald Trump’s hard-selling Kashmir mediation bid was always succumbed to despair so it did over a dining table co-shared by the US President and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Biarritz, France. He now counsels India and Pakistan to resolve the all differences including Kashmir dispute through bilateral talks.

In other words, the US president has pragmatically vetted Indian divisive and conflict-ridden move to dismantle the autonomous status of its controlled part of Kashmir and splitting the region into two union territories – Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh.

Right-winged, nationalist BJP would profoundly exploit the veiled US endorsement to further militarize China-India-Pakistan contested zone and coerce about 12 million people of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh to crouch down to Hindu-extremist ideology.

Insoluble Kashmir puzzle would additionally dampen the already ruptured New Delhi’s bilateral relations with Beijing and Islamabad as well as procreate frictions and spark tensions in probably the most destabilized region in the world.

As international community and the global media is deeply focused on Indian crackdown on Kashmiris, the carving out of Ladakh could be seen as a joint Indian-US action in the larger perspective to check China’s growing influence and to monitor Russia.

This may be the reason why just within over a month of gaining the status of union territory, worries have prevailed over initial excitements even among the non-Muslim population of Ladakh. The fear of “outsiders” threatening the existence of the locals is now gripping the streets of Leh, the capital of Ladakh.

Though the United States is relatively vocal on J&K but its muteness on Ladakh, which also continues to witness a heavy lockdown after contentious Indian decision, fans the apprehensions about an Indian-US larger regional strategic alliance.

Albeit all its efforts to take effective control of Afghanistan, Washington has yet failed to purge Afghan Taliban and use the distraught country freely as a base to keep tabs on China and Russia. It, therefore, might have been considering to looking out for an alternative strategic location.

At the same time, India has been the only regional country that was seeing Taliban-US peace negotiations as a threat to its national security and higher stakes in Afghanistan, fearing to concede the strategic balance in favor of China and Pakistan.

The evolving regional scenario could drive New Delhi and Washington to marry into a more strengthened strategic alliance and make Ladakh potentially a new US joint strategic base in the region.

Ladakh’s vital strategic importance of gaining direct access to Tarim Basin and the Tibetan plateau pushes for a deeper Indian-US cooperation. Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) is the existing Indian military base in located on the ancient trade route connecting Ladakh to Tarim Basin in northwest Chinese Xinjiang region.

While Ladakh will now be an Indian union territory without an assembly, the doubts over US growing strategic interests in the region mount drastically. With no Ladakh political representation, the step to install an Indo-US strategic base would be comparatively much affluent.

On Wednesday, the border tensions between India and China heated up once again after troops from the both sides engaged in a brawl near the northern bank of 134-km long Pangong Tso (Pangong Lake), which extends from Tibet to Ladakh and largely controlled by China.

However, the situation was defused and soldiers were “completely disengaged” after Brigadier level talks across the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

But the situation could escalate soon as India would be launching the biggest military drills comprising about 15,000 soldiers, including air force personnel, in the disputed Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls South Tibet, near the Chinese border.

The radical and hawkish BJP leaders have been publicly threatening to annex Pakistan-administrated Kashmir and Chinese Aksai Chin. In his speech to Lok Sabha, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah pledged to die for both territories.

"Kashmir is an integral part of India. I want to make it absolutely clear that every single time we say Jammu and Kashmir it includes Pak-Occupied Kashmir (including Gilgit-Baltistan) as well as Aksai Chin. Let there be no doubt over it. Entire Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of the Union of India," Shah said.

New Delhi could term it a political stunt to gain common Indians’ empathies but the diplomatic rhetoric continued. While talking to Hindustan Times afterwards, Indian diplomats affirmed that India has the right to expect China to respect its sovereign claims over Ladakh and Aksai Chin just as China expects India to accept its claims over Tibet, Taiwan, and Xinjiang as part of the “One China” policy.

BJP has a history of criticizing Beijing for “occupying” Aksai Chin. Addressing an election-bound rally in Ladakh in November 2014 – Indian Home Minister (now Defense Minister) Rajnath Singh panned China for illegally seizing the Aksai Chin area.

He also came down on Chinese military for their “Incursions” in the mountainous expanse. On August 29, he again travelled to Buddhist-dominant Leh town of Ladakh to arouse the Indian military.

SO India underpins the paramount strategic importance of Ladakh, without which People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “would be sitting on the southern foothills of the Himalayas.” Lately, the idea to blunt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is being rejuvenated in India by offering China an alternative energy corridor from an Indian port running across Ladakh to China. “Why not jointly use the Aksai-Chin highway? “

In the form of Ladakh, India and the US would find a common area of cooperation to impede China. While US presence on a closer front would allow India to expand its influence, defense authorities in New Delhi could ratify the notion.

Given the proximity of China-India-Pakistan border and the pervasive presence of Indian Army and paramilitary forces, Ladakh’s strategic importance intensifies substantially. And with limited Indian military capability to match Chinese growing military might, an Indian-US military cooperation couldn’t be completely ruled out.

Solomon Islands and Kiribati are just ‘tip of the iceberg’

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-21/Solomon-Islands-and-Kiribati-are-just-tip-of-the-iceberg--KaSbwKzhlu/index.html

In a huge diplomatic blow, Taiwan on Friday lost its second ally in a week after the Republic of Kiribati switched its diplomatic allegiance to China. Central Pacific nation’s decision followed Solomon Islands’ move on Monday to cut its ties with Taipei.

With the secession of the Republic of Kiribati and Solomon Islands, total tally of countries that now maintains “diplomatic relations” with Taiwan has shriveled to 15. Since Tsai was elected as president three year ago, Taiwan’s fewer diplomatic ties have dwindled by seven.

Over the past few weeks, Taiwanese allies have been progressively distancing themselves from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) due to its rhapsodizing with Washington that has elicited tensions in the region.

The transformed approach further accentuated that the former Taiwanese cronies were not contented with Tsai Ing-wen’s despairing policies while going with China would best suit their own and the region’s interests in the long run.

Recent fray invigorated after the United States on August 20 brusquely infringed the bilateral understanding with China by announcing to sell 66 F-16C/D Block 70 aircraft to Taiwan. The Sino-US Communiqué of January 1, 1979 manifestly states “The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.”

While Taiwan alleged China for tempting Kiribati with several airplanes and commercial ferries as well as to “suppress and reduce Taiwan’s international presence”, it discounted the fact that the Taiwanese ambitions to bolster its military could have thwarted its allies to pursue realignment with China.

Taiwan’s modernization of its air fleet, for sure, was insignificant when it comes to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and was meant only to placate Washington. But in a bid to mollify the US, Tsai’s government is weakening domestically and getting isolated internationally every day.

In the given conditions, Taipei’s indictment about Chinese funding touted as “money diplomacy” sounds baseless and instead courts the Tsai and her government for causing unrest and anxieties amongst its allies by violating “One China” principle that has so far ensured peace, stability, and unity in the region.

Kiribati’s diplomatic shift in favor of China was always on the cards after the Solomon Islands, the Taiwanese biggest ally, had turned to Beijing just days before. But the worries for Taipei administration could follow if the trend continues and some of the other United Nations’ member states: Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, the Marshal Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland, and Tuvalu would be sitting to review their diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

In fact, some of them are picking up the speed to mend their ties with China. While Palau and Nauru are keen to sever their ties with Taiwan and to warm up towards Beijing, Haiti is also giving a strong consideration for a potential divergence from Taipei. Enele Sopoaga, the prime minister of Tuvalu and a strong Taiwanese supporter has stood down after general elections.

2019 has generally been a tough year for Tsai government. After DPP fared poorly in the local elections last November, Tsai popularity have gone down tremendously to as low as 15%. While Tsai froze wages and made cuts in the pensions of civil servants, teachers, and military personnel – the Taiwanese people showed their angsts in the ballots.

The dismal performance of DPP forced Tsai to step down from party leadership on 24 November 2018 and there were chatters that she could be dumped as a presidential candidate for 2020 elections.

Tsai is now gambling on Hong Kong’s strife to regain her vote bank in Taiwan. She regularly speaks on Facebook and Twitter in support of the violent protests in Hong Kong. She also met Joshua Wong, the so-called pro-democracy Hong Kong activist who visited Taiwan earlier this month.

Her solidarity with Hong Kong radicals is just a presidential ploy to mislead the voters by ramping up Beijing-phobia and she merely wants to reverse her fortune on the back of riots in Chinese Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).

Tsai’s instinct to roar the specter “Hong Kong today and Taiwan tomorrow” and trumpeting that “One Country, Two Systems” would never be an option for Taiwan, profoundly speaks of her fears to overcome defeat in coming January elections.

Taiwanese people have a valid argument to put, while she was slashing the public welfare spending, the central bank has sliced its GDP growth forecast by 0.34 percentage point, private investment is expected to moderate from 5% to 3%, and enterprise profits are weakening – how could she buy 66 fighter jets F-16s from the US for an exorbitant cost of $8 billion?

If Taiwan sticks to its confrontational policy with China – it would not be surprised if most of the countries that knot diplomatic ties with it, reconsider their alliance with Taipei and lean towards Beijing that enormous bilateral economic and strategic benefits in offering.

Stalemate in Afghan peace process: Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran should wheel-up engagements

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2059613/6-stalemate-afghan-peace-talks/

In his interview with Russian television RT, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan recapped that his country was unfairly blamed for the US failures in Afghanistan. He also slated his predecessors for fighting an American war that caused 70,000 deaths in human casualties and $100 billion on account of economic losses to Pakistan.

Khan’s stance was backed by more than 200 million Pakistanis who believe that they have suffered a lot by fighting the US war on terror in Afghanistan twice – firstly against the Soviet Union in 1980s and secondly in the aftermath of 9/11 attacks.

About three decades before – Washington, with the help of Pakistan, eventually succeeded to pushback Moscow from Kabul and to smash its Sputnik-era foe into pieces. But once it met its national security and foreign policy objectives, it abandoned both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Resultantly, Kabul was elbowed into bloody internal conflicts whereas the menace of terrorism shook Islamabad.

After the US fixed its cold war rival once for all, it throttled its major non-NATO ally, Pakistan, with economic and military sanctions over possession of nuclear explosive devices. That was the time when Pakistan fundamentally realized about the US fitful behavior after reaching its strategic objectives in the region.

Unfortunately, peace and stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan was never on the US foreign policy itinerary. Since the US goals were achieved with the fallout of Soviet Union, the two neighboring countries were worth no more than a stack of the rocks for it.

US laxity and strategic blunder, to leave Afghanistan in chaos and dump Pakistan, allowed Al-Qaeda to strengthen its footprints in Kabul. At the same time, US punitive actions to slap military and economic sanctions rammed Islamabad to contrive a foreign policy that doesn’t invoke Washington as precedence.

In due course, 9/11 terrorist attacks completely transformed the world. US once again needed Pakistan to topple Taliban government in Afghanistan. In order to gain Islamabad support to attack Kabul, Washington threatened to dispatch the South Asian country in Stone Age if it had resisted the US preconditions.

Although Pakistan opted to spine the US-led war on terror in Afghanistan, it had already smelled the susceptible and cranky US behavior to bamboozle Pakistani defense by the recurrent US denials to supply much-needed military equipment.

While Islamabad was always strongly tied with Beijing economically and militarily, in a major foreign policy shift it additionally cozied up to Moscow to encounter its arms deficiencies. A new chapter of Pak-Russo ties started with the arrival of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Frakov in 2017 while Moscow also supported Islamabad’s campaign against local Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist activities in Pakistan.

The bilateral relations furthered after Russia revamped its regional strategy and President Vladimir Putin publicly endorsed Pakistan bid to join Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), calling Islamabad an important ally in South Asia and in the Muslim world. It was probably the turning point that laid the foundation of economic and military ties between Pakistan and Russia.

From then onwards, the bilateral relations powered by military ties between the two sides continued to burgeon. In the past few years, Pakistan has significantly leaned towards Russia over insistent US response about blocking the deliver military equipment to Pakistan and its abrupt curve to India that bids to stem China’s growing influence in region.

As Pakistan and China shared the deepest and closest relations, Islamabad’s tilt towards Moscow thwarted Washington that foresaw a formidable China-Pakistan-Russia trilateral strategic alliance in making. While the US found a new strategic partner in the form of India in the region, Islamabad snubbed US concerns over its economic and strategic links with Moscow.

On July 2, the Commander in Chief of Russian Ground Forces General Oleg Salyukov called upon Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa at General Head Quarters (GHQ), Rawalpindi.

Two military heads deliberated matters related to enhanced security cooperation and measures to further expand joint military ties between the two armies, Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a press release.

The extensive strategic discussions quickly transpired in a substantial outcome as the special forces of two countries will be holding joint military drills in October this year. The combine army exercise dubbed as “Friendship 2019” will be conducted for a third consecutive year in a row.

Russia has a consistent stance of “political and diplomatic approach” for enduring peace in Afghanistan. For 20 years, Moscow has been urging the brawling sides to follow the path of dialogue. The Kremlin also believes that the US “is unduly coming back” to its prior confrontational policy with Taliban.

As Pakistan and Russia look to bury the bitter past, they alongside China are heading towards forming a new power equation and a deeper strategic partnership for the 21st century. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could give them a common platform to architect and sheen the ostensible trilateral strategic alliance.

While in June a Taliban delegation headed by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar visited China to promote peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan and Afghan government also maintains warm relations with China, Beijing has a critical role to play.

Taliban’s visit to Beijing wasn’t abrupt. In April, Beijing joined Washington and Moscow in calling for Taliban to return to talks after a communication breakdown. So the growing Chinese role places China in a pivotal position to ensure future stability in Afghanistan.

Whenever the talks between the US and Taliban resume, China will have a central role because no one amongst the all world’s powers can match China’s clout of sustaining close relations with the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Beijing is ready to even extend its cooperation towards the US on Afghanistan as “they share a common interest in a stable Afghanistan.”

The US pragmatically has the least or indeed no threats to its national security from Afghanistan or the Afghan Taliban but as it bulls to keep a check on its strategic rivals, China and Russia, it ranks the battle-scarred country very high in its foreign policy objectives.

For the US and the Pentagon, Russia is an “authoritarian actor” with which China has partnered to mitigate US pressure tactics while in wake of Western sanctions on Russia; Beijing has been increasing its investments in Moscow to aid Russian economy.

Over the past 12 months, US has been again desperately looking at Pakistan to strike a deal with Afghan Taliban. Although the Afghan peace talks are dead now but since the unvaryingly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan has gravely impeded the economic growth and sustainable peace in Pakistan, it has made deep-hearted efforts that Afghanistan remains a peaceful and stable territory and Taliban and Kabul administration engage in a comprehensive intra-Afghan dialogue.

However, while facilitating the US-Taliban talks and intra-Afghan dialogue, Pakistan has to be very mindful of the proceedings, underscoring the US unpredictable attitude about ditching Islamabad repetitively after gaining its national and strategic objectives.

As lately Trump administration and Pentagon has decided to round up Taliban once more, Pakistan should profoundly engage Iran, China and Russia since the endurable peace in the four countries is tightly knotted with stability in Afghanistan.

While Beijing and Moscow have also urged the sides to resume the peace talks, the four regional countries should wheel-up their efforts to outwit any consequential damage to Afghan peace process, which could eventually destabilize the entire region.

Sino-US trade truce could stop bilateral and global economic jolt

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-15/Sino-U-S-trade-truce-could-stop-bilateral-and-global-economic-jolt-K0aXbY3Zx6/index.html

War does not distinguish between friends and foes and elicits unequivocal losses to everyone irrespective of status and nationality.

Trade war is no different. The more than one year China-US trade scuffle has sparked the US federal budget deficit to extend to $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the fiscal year – up by 18.8% as compared to the same period last year.

Trump administration could cheer about the narrowing goods trade deficit with China from $235 billion to $209 billion for the seven-month period of January to July; however the US overall goods trade deficit has wheeled from $501 billion to $513 billion for the same period and even wider from 2017’s $464 billion.

Given the fact that Trump directed $28 billion in aid to the US farmers hurt by the trade war, the declining trade deficit with China he boasted about was effectively neutralized merely by the damage caused to the US farmers in an itching trade war.

While Chinese exports to the world (-1.0%) remained roughly unchanged during January-August and it also counterbalanced its trade deficit by managing its imports (-5.6%) – the US effort to crash Chinese economy fired back.

At the same time, although China’s custom data showed that Chinese goods exports to the US plunged 8.9% to $276 billion but its imports from the US were dropped about three times more than the decline in exports to US – 27.5% to just over $80 billion.

The official data from both the sides corroborates that Trump-waged trade war has triggered more harm to the US economy than the Chinese. So, there is an urgent need from China and the US to take drastic measures to turn the tide before it brutishly jolts the two economies and the global trading system.

While Beijing repeatedly called for bilateral negotiations to end the trade war – US President Donald Trump, as a gesture of good will, delayed the imposition of 5% additional tariffs (from 25% to 30%) on $250 billion of Chinese goods for two weeks from October 1 to October 5.

China responded with more eager as the Chinese Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has reportedly decided to exclude some US agricultural products including soybeans from the additional tariffs.

In July, China had offered to exempt five private crushers from import tariffs on US soybeans arriving by the end of the year.

Chinese assuaging decision to shelve the additional tariffs gave a tremendous respite to the American farmers who had been crammed into the prolonging trade war. The lull in China-US trade fray exited American agricultural producers and Chinese importers of US farm produce.

On Thursday, Beijing’s conciliatory move stirred Chinese firms to buy at least 10 boatloads or more than 600,000 tons of US soybeans, largest in a year. The record purchases also backed Beijing’s prior claim that Chinese companies have been inquiring about the US agriculture products.

Trump is ecstatic. “It is expected that China will be buying large amounts of our agricultural products!,” the US president said in his twitter post. Earlier in his media talk at the Oval office, he struck an optimistic tone about trade talks with China. “They made a couple of moves (about tariff waivers) last night that were pretty good.”

The affable signals from Beijing are set to roll a favorable pitch for the forthcoming 13th round of high-level economic and trade talks between the two largest economies of the world early next month in Washington.

As the downturn in the manufacturing sector has threatened the US economy, which contracted for the first time in three years in August, the de-escalation in trade war would definitely ease the worries of the US businessmen who have been hovering around the uncertainty of sustainable trade ties between Beijing and Washington.

Speaking during the China-US CEOs Dialogue, US Chamber Executive Vice President and Head of International Affairs urged the sides to “conclude a meaningful, comprehensive, and enforceable bilateral trade and investment agreement in a timely matter.” “There are no winners in a trade war, only losers.”

China has always opposed the idea of trade war and since the start of the trade war, has been calling for a calm attitude to defuse the hostile situation. Beijing believes that the growing bilateral frictions between China and the US eventually slowdowns the global economy, which after all is the linchpin of sustainable economic growth of both the countries.

International Monitory Fund (IMF), the global financial watchdog, has once again warned that the retaliatory tariffs could trim the worldwide economic growth by 0.8% in 2020 and would prompt many losses in coming years including the core manufacturing industry.

While a decline in the global economic growth would mean a lesser global economic activity, the tremors would be felt by the people across the world including China and the US. Only a coherent and heedful approach from both sides could foil such a despairing condition to prevail and the two countries are moving on the right track to protect the bilateral trade interests.

India should clear its opaque position on South China Sea

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-09/India-should-clear-its-opaque-position-on-South-China-Sea-JQ8db5Lcl2/index.html

Defense cooperation between India and Japan is growing rapidly. Alongside the United States, both countries will be holding a trilateral maritime exercise – Malabar 2019 – in Japan later this month. Malabar originally was a bilateral naval drill comprising New Delhi and Washington that was started in 1992. Japan joined as a permanent partner in 2015.

Apart from Malabar, another trilateral war games mine-countermeasures exercise (MINEX) will be conducted annually by the three countries. It was announced during Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s recent meeting with Japanese defense minister Takeshi Iwaya.

After the meeting, Indian defense ministry confirmed that there has been a significant progress on military logistics arrangement, Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA). On Friday, India signed such an agreement with South Korea as well.

India and Japan would ink ACSA by the end of the year and would initiate to extend logistic support to each other’s navies. Indian strategic pacts with Japan and South Korea separately are likely to bolster the defense cooperation to meet their strategic military ambitions and amid “rising challenges from China”.

While Singh and Iwaya had a rare discussion on South China Sea – with ACSA onboard, India and Japan will take another stride in sharing military logistics for greater interoperability and navigation in the South China Sea. As the US has been proactive in the region, South China Sea is matter of vital national interest and sovereignty for China.

Indian defense ministry statement that said Indian and Japanese ministers “recognized that peace and stability of the Indian and Pacific Oceans” to ensure prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and “frank exchange of views” on the developments “in the South China Sea” underscored a major shift in Indian foreign policy.

India has long ducked any reference to South China Sea in a bid not to infuriate Beijing but the latest comments tip-off its renunciation of its prior position. While the Indian unilateral action to carve out of Ladakh from Jammu and Kashmir has not cooled down yet, the renewed Indian approach threatens to fracture the relations between Beijing and India.

Moreover, Iwaya remarks about discoursing “China’s military activities” with Singh and the Indian reticence after its defense ministry’s press release breed further doubts. New Delhi therefore should come up with a vivid stance about its perspective on Indo-Pacific and the South China Sea.

India needs to clear its position also because on Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe on the sidelines of 5th East Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok and “expressed his intention to take concrete steps to cooperate toward the realization of common vision of the Indo-Pacific.”

After meetings at G20 summit in Osaka and G7 summit in Biarritz, it was for the third time in a three-month period that the two leaders interacted and according to Japanese media, the leaders discussed security cooperation and efforts to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region, “amid concerns over China’s growing military presence in regional waters.”

On Wednesday, Japanese ambassador in India Kenji Hiramatsu secondedd the rapid growth of defense ties between the two countries. Abe will be visiting India in December and the first 2+2 ministerial meeting comprising foreign and defense ministers from both sides is expected to take place before his arrival.

Improved relations with any country are the indigenous and sovereign right of India and China acknowledges the Indian prerogative. Unlike the US, Beijing does not coerce its allies into a situation “You’re with us or against us”. However, it anticipates its partners to be absolute transparent in their bilateral dealings with China and more importantly, respect its sovereignty such as in South China Sea.

India should also prevent to indicate that its defense and strategic treaties across the countries of the world butt China. About Malabar 2016, India media outlets said that the exercise “assumed significance” at a time when "China has become more assertive, and their submarines forays in the Indian Ocean region have increased.”

In addition, Indian media behavior to portray Chinese state councilor and foreign minister Wang Yi ‘s visit to Pakistan as a negative fallout of Special Representatives’ border with Indian national security advisor Ajit Doval in oblivious.

Wang’s visit to India was not postponed due to Pakistan’s reservations; as a matter of fact, it has been delayed over “India’s schedule,” the Chinese foreign ministry clarified in a brief statement to a leading Indian media outlet.

China’s relations with almost all its neighbors are cordial so it is always prepared to resolve border and all other disputes with India through dialogue. But since Japanese and the US covert strategy lies in derailing Chinese efforts to prevail peace in East China Sea and South China Sea, India needs to be mindful.

Like Malabar 2016, the fresher naval maneuvers will be conducted in Japanese water. Thus, Tokyo could again use the exercise spy on China's military deployment in the waters and divert Chinese attention from South China Sea and East China Sea.

In the emerging tensed situation in the region, China expects India to clear its opaque position on the Indo-Pacific, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea that would help Beijing to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Kashmir: India’s draconian Armed Forces Special Powers Act leads to enforced disappearances

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my articles (unedited) that first appeared in "The Nation" with the title "AFSPA: covering enforced disappearances" https://nation.com.pk/09-Sep-2019/afspa-covering-enforced-disappearances and "Daily Times" labeling
"India’s draconian Armed Forces Special Powers Act and enforced disappearances" https://dailytimes.com.pk/462470/indias-draconian-armed-forces-special-powers-act-and-enforced-disappearances/

Since August 5 – the Muslim-dominated Indian-held Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is in heavy lockdown. Schools and offices are closed, businesses are shut down, communications are cut off, strict curfew is imposed causing people to starve and children and adults to confine at homes, medicines are scarce, and people from across the sections of the society including students, academics, activists, lawyers, businessmen, political leaders, and elected representatives have been detained.

If the oppressed people come out in search of food and drugs to survive; milk to feed their infants; and to demand their globally-mandated human rights – they are shot pallets in the eyes and across their bodies and are greeted with sheer humiliation and intense military clampdown to orientate them with an Indian tutorial of curbing ‘terrorism’.

These horrid facts have been reported by the independent international media journalists, media organizations, and humans rights activists from Kashmir after the ruling BJP Indian administration starkly violated 1972’s Shimla Agreement with Pakistan and unilaterally striped the valley’s autonomy by degrading and splitting the disputed region into two union territories – J&K and Ladakh.

Indian ministry of external affairs has a different take on the boiling conditions in its controlled part of Kashmir. It says local government is maintaining law and order with maturity, reports of shortage of live saving drugs in hospitals are false, and not a single life has been lost or a single bullet has been fired.

The worsening ground conditions in the ‘heavens on the earth’ outrightly defy the whacky Indian claims while the existence of more than 700,000 military troops in J&K and the deployment of additional tens of thousands paramilitary forces additionally refute the recent assertions.

For decades, New Delhi has been asserting that Kashmir is an integral part of India and the ongoing austere actions and the massive military deployment tell that it would “annex” Kashmir into Republic of India by overriding all the international humanitarian laws.

In a bid to discredit and demean the local population, central government of India has enacted Public Safety Act (PSA) in J&K under which more than 2,000 people have been arrested since August 5. The controversial legal provision empowers the local administration to book any person without charge and trial for up to 2 years.

Authorities, previously denied to give an exact number of detainees, later confirmed that there were only a “few preventive detentions” of over 100 people including politicians, activists, and academics immediately after the abrogation of the Article 370.

But the figures provided by a local magistrate were shocking. On the condition of anonymity, he told AFP that as many 4,000 people had been arrested. “Most of them were flown out of Kashmir because prisons here have run out of capacity.” A police officer described the numbers as high as 6,000 and ratified the fact that the people took in custody were “flown out of here in military aircraft.”

As the whereabouts of thousands of Kashmiris detainees is unknown, the allegations of enforced disappearances proliferate and tantamount to excessive use of force in Kashmir at a time when the world marked the International Day of the Victims of Enforced Disappearances on August 30.

PSA and enforces disappearances are supported by a vile impunity legislation Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which provides Indian soldiers to forcefully control vast swathes of Kashmir. The draconian law alongside the National Register of Citizens (NRC) has led to destitution, infringement of human rights, medical lethargy, and misrepresentation of the facts in the region.

AFSPA grants enormous powers to Indian armed forces such as shoot to kill, arrest anybody without warrant, and detain local people without any specific time threshold. As the monstrous law forbids the prosecution of soldiers without formal approval from central government – which is rarely granted – Indian army routinely tortures and maltreats Kashmiris during interrogation in the army barracks.

Admitting the atrocious nature of the AFSPA, the Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh had vowed to the international community to repeal the Act in 2004. Disbanding of the statute has become one of the major demands of the Kashmiris and the leading opposition parties in India but Indian army and the ruling BJP party have scrubbed all democratic efforts to rescind the law.

While Article 19 of United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights presses to respect the right of freedom of opinion without interference – the authoritarian Indian regime continues to protect contentious PSA, enforced disappearances, and AFSPA by allowing its military to freely sustain an inhumane crackdown on freedom of expression, inflict restrictions on access to information, and deny the right of peace protests to Kashmiri people.

Trump’s dilemma on a trade deal with China

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2051045/6-trumps-dilemma-trade-deal-china/

After G7 summit, the US President Donald Trump said that he believes China is sincere in seeking a trade deal with him and insisted Beijing wants “to make a deal badly”. He was responding to Chinese Vice Premier Liu He’s comments about China’s willing to resolve trade row through dialogue.

Trump’s softer but bitter riposte to Liu’s call for settling the issues with “calm attitude” was adolescent and redundantly vexatious as in the same remarks, the Chinese leader also stroked hard at the White House policies that were based on trade protectionism and technology blockades.

Also, the archives of China-US trade war manifestly deny the phony claim made by Trump. It is a blatant truth that Beijing has been urging Washington to defuse the warlike situation through talks since long but Trump’s showcasing about the Chinese persistent position as its weak link is outrageous.

The rash statement broke through after the US president came under tremendous pressure from leaders of G7 countries and businessmen, farmers, importers, and exporters of the US to put a full-stop on trade war that has rattled the world economies and people including the US.

Realistically, it is Trump himself who is pleading for a trade deal with Beijing as he is quickly falling short of munitions to hurt China economically in his useless feud. Therefore, he is searching out for a way out that could be dressed up in some sort of dignity and pride for him.

With all his tariff escalations, the US president would have made about 95% of the Chinese goods subject to 15% to 30% tariffs by December 16. While no more room for tariff intensification would remain at the disposal of Trump, this would necessarily mean that he would very soon concede his sole leverage in trade war against China.

His growing curbs to slap more tariffs on Chinese goods are coupled with tumbling Wall Street and the wheeling anxieties among the US manufacturers and exporters who have probably pressed Trump to get paler on Beijing while narrating about China’s sincerity in striking a trade deal with him.

Trump’s weird diplomacy has a serious flaw, which emphatically pivots on building close rapport with the other heads of states and slating their countries. Although he is very belligerent in his rhetoric but he does not shy to flatter his counterparts as well.

He asserts that Chinese President Xi Jinping is his “personal friend” and at the same time, declares China a foreseeable economic and strategic rival of the United States, which bears a significant threat to the US national security.

Last week, the US president took twitter to label Xi an enemy and just in a span of few days, he lavishly praised his Chinese peer as a great leader who is representing a great country. When asked about sudden shift in approach, Trump had a bizarre excuse “Sorry, this is the way I negotiate. The way I negotiate has done very well for me over the years and it’s even doing better for the country.”

The US president must know whether he pans or does he admire, Xi is the president of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and so would be the custodian of his country’s and people’s interests. Unlike Trump who has squeezed the future of many Americans, under Xi’s leadership China has pulled more than 700 million people out of poverty.

American would like their president to behave and serve his nation as Xi did for Chinese people. It was an example of American businesses’ trust on China that as soon as Trump ostensibly signaled to resume trade talks with Beijing, the markets at the Wall Street scooped.

Earlier given Trump Friday’s announcement of additional tariffs on China in response to Beijing’s intent to retaliate against US goods, Bloomberg wrote on Tuesday “Going into the traditional Labor Day end of the US summer, the prospects of a peaceful resolution to the trade war that has roiled financial market and helped slow the global economy seem far lower than they were on Memorial Day – and growing more distant week by week.”

The American shouldn’t place high hopes on the US president who has to date has failed to adopt a clear position on constructive trade dialogue instead lied to his folks about receiving a phone call from Chinese side to “get back to the table”, a claim China’s foreign ministry wasn’t aware of.

While Trump shifted and defended his ambition to shift trade war to ordering US manufacturing companies to move out of China, the newest method is doomed to collapse as the experts pointed out that no US president can order to leave a country.

So the stigma of Trump’s failed confrontational policies would keep chasing him until his term is expired or maybe it would continue to haunt him throughout his life.

US oil and gas exporters lose the biggest Chinese market

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-03/U-S-oil-and-gas-exporters-lose-the-biggest-Chinese-market--JGsOXts14Q/index.html

Since the United States has embroiled in a hopeless trade war with China more than one year ago, the entire Beijing’s counter-tariff measures have been retaliatory and not incendiary. The Chinese reciprocal actions in response to US vexing tariff strategy could be termed as legitimate and defensive because they were shouldered to protect the interests of country and the people.

In late August, the sincere Chinese efforts to resolve the bruising trade dispute with calm attitude were met with Trump bitter riposte while claiming that Beijing wants “to make a deal badly”. And once again, the US president snubbed PRC’s reconciliatory tone to foil the escalation in trade war by allowing 15 percent tariffs on more than $125 billion of Chinese goods to take effect from September 1.

China had no choice but to hit back. So in reprisal, Beijing also kicked off the previously announced additional up to 10 percent tariffs on $75 billion targeted list of American goods including slapping 5 percent levy on US crude oil and natural gas. Since the start of the trade war between the two largest economies of the world, it is for the time that China has targeted the US fuel.

Although historically, the US companies had a very weak presence in Chinese oil market, still they were the fastest growing crude oil suppliers to China in 2018. Before the trade war, US crude exports to China had bloomed to 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June 2018 before falling to mere 247,000 bpd in May 2019.

So by continuing to cuff tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump’s rash and consistently wacky moves sent the US crude oil exporters in tatters that had just positioned themselves to fortify their footprints in the world’s biggest 9.24 million barrels per day of Chinese crude market.

Given that China’s crude oil consumption roughly accounted for 67 percent in 2017 and it is predicted that it will climb to 76 percent by 2030 – the reluctance of Chinese traders to buy American crude was always threatening to pitch anxieties in the US crude exporters to China.

It is important to note that after the breakthrough trade talks with Trump at G-20 summit in late June; the Chinese President Xi Jingping had extended the promise to buy more US goods including energy products such as crude oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Xi kept his promise pledge and China’s US crude imports soared drastically to 11.2 million barrels in July, the highest monthly volume in a year.

But as soon as Trump dialed back from the trade truce and imposed 10% fresh tariffs on remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods in early August, Chinese buyers of US crude were seriously agitated and averred that they would not buy until Washington ceases tariffs and backtracks from stating China “a currency manipulator”.

Chinese reactive tariff strike on US crude would increase pressure that would be bearish for US grades as they would raise the US crude cost at least $ 3 a barrel and bullish for Brent and Dubai. Beijing’s tolls on US crude hence would push the American energy companies to cut the drill rigs further, which have already been declined for a ninth-month in a row, to the lowest level since January last year.

Meanwhile China-US trade tensions raised concerns about further hitting the global growth and demand for crude oil, Brent crude plunged 16 cents to $59.09 a barrel by 1020 GMT while the US benchmark WTI crude also slipped 7 cents to $55.03.

China is a step ahead of the US. As Trump pursues adversarial economic policies, Beijing is shifting its reliance from manufacturing and exports to consumption oriented growth. Therefore, China does not need to target US on trade; Trump’s wrong economic path itself would lead the US economy to cataclysm.

And do not forget that natural gas is China’s fastest growing major fuel that’s growth has quadruplicated in the past decade. It is the second-largest natural gas importer behind Japan and alone accounts for one-third of the global growth, thanks in part to its “Blue Skies” policy and strong drive to improve quality.

Again before the trade war, US exported more than 17.5 billion cubic feet of LNG in April 2018 to China but no LNG vessel left the US in May and June this year. As China has levied tariffs on US LNG and LPG (Light Petroleum Gas) as well and the trade war is likely to prolong, Trump’s frenzied strategy would toss up the world’s largest producer of oil and gas (US) from the biggest fuel market around the globe (China).

While Trump’s thread “Chinese currency has gone down, which gives our importers a discount” in other words elaborates his retraction from labeling China “a currency manipulator”, admitting the adverse fallout of his trade war – his tariff war have also shunned the doors of the US crude oil and natural gas exports in China.

Mountbatten’s cynical role at Indian partition

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my articles (unedited) that first appeared in "Daily Times":
https://dailytimes.com.pk/457322/mountbattens-cynical-role-at-indian-partition/

Pakistan’s path to freedom was crammed with blood, terror, rape, and plunder. In 1947, millions of peaceable people abandoned their hearths and homes and fled India to migrate Pakistan in pursuit of free, safe, and secure lifestyle.

The last Viceroy of British India, Lord Mountbatten, had a cynical role in ramping up migrants’ miseries. At the time of Partition of India in 1947, he had pledged to make sure that “there is no bloodshed and riot” during the transition of government to India and Pakistan.

But Mountbatten viciously failed to keep his promise and demonstrated sheer incompetence in preventing communal disturbances, violence, and killings. As a result, about one million humans were killed while the world also witnessed arguably the largest mass migration of the history.

Women were the prime victims of the Partition of India. Tens of thousands of the abducted women went through relentless mental and physical ferocities after they were forcibly held as permanent hostages, captives, and forced wives in "other" country. However, rapes of Muslim women were roughly double than those of Hindu and Sikh women.

Mountbatten manifested great bias towards India and against Pakistan. He crooked the rules in a way that preferred India and pressurized Sir Cyril Radcliffe to alter the boundary in India’s favor. Radcliffe was the chairman of the Indo-Pakistan Boundary Commission that was responsible for demarcation of British India into India and Pakistan on religion lines.

While British India was alienated into two independent dominion states – India and Pakistan – on the basis of two nation theory (Hindu and Muslim), the princely state of J&K remains a relic discord between the two South Asian rivals of the subcontinent.

At the time of division, Mountbatten deliberately kept mum about 1846’s Treaty of Amaritsar, which entitled Gulab Singh to rule J&K, but was scrapped through Article 7 of the Independence Act. The Act was passed by British parliament on July 18, 1947 and subscribed the creation of India and Pakistan. It also rescinded the suzerainty of His Majesty over British India and its princely states including J&K, all treaties, agreements, obligations, and grants.

So it was Mountbatten’s perfidious insolence that piled up convoluted rumpuses between India and Pakistan on J&K and pressed the historians to reproach British imperialism for an independence which was accompanied by a bloody partition and communal violence amid Hindus and Muslims.

As it was mutually agreed among all sides that the Muslim-majority regions would be assigned to Pakistan, the geopolitical location of J&K and the fact that it was largely Muslim populated necessitated the state’s ruler Maharaja Hari Singh to enjoin the territory with Pakistan. But Indian took control of the J&K militarily and averred that the Hindu monarch has signed an Instrument of Accession with New Delhi.

The Instrument is alleged to have signed on 26 October 1947 and Indian forces began to intervene in J&K on the morning of 27 October 1947. The historian Alastair Lamb argues that the date of signing the accession agreement is false as the Maharaja was traveling by road from Srinagar to Jammu on 26 October 1947. So it wasn’t possible for him to sign the Instrument while he was escaping to save his life.

Lab further maintained that the earliest possible time of signing the documents by Maharaja of J&K was in afternoon of 27 October 1947 after the overt Indian intervention in the state. “Falsification of such a fundamental element as date of signature, however, once established, can only cast grave doubt over the validity of the document as a whole”, Lamb clinched.

Even if such an agreement was signed between Maharaja and the Indian emissaries, the divisive contract clarified that J&K would retain autonomy in all matters except defense, foreign affairs, and communications. The contract also did not bind the state to Indian constitution and stipulated that the ruler’s decision to accede to India must be ratified by the people of J&K through a referendum/plebiscite, which never took place.

Philip Ziegler, Mountbatten’s biographer said he had “legendary capacity for self-deception” and he “was a man who preferred falsehood to truth.” Ziegler also panned the Instrument that had handwritten corrections and ended with the last sentence “in haste and with kind regards”, which speak volubly about the state of Maharaja’s mind and authenticates that the instrument was extracted under coercion and duress so should be invalid in the court of law. While no UN resolution incorporates India’s view that Maharaja had acceded to India, the accession instrument stand stolen.

Although, New Delhi had incorporated Article 370 in its constitution (despite not being in practice) but it did not fit at all comfortably with the “authoritarian Indian administration(s)”. On August 5, the fascistic BJP regime eventually abrogated Article 370 (and Article 35A) and striped the semiautonomous status of J&K.