By: Azhar Azam
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-21/Solomon-Islands-and-Kiribati-are-just-tip-of-the-iceberg--KaSbwKzhlu/index.html
In a huge diplomatic blow, Taiwan on Friday lost its second ally in a week after the Republic of Kiribati switched its diplomatic allegiance to China. Central Pacific nation’s decision followed Solomon Islands’ move on Monday to cut its ties with Taipei.
With the secession of the Republic of Kiribati and Solomon Islands, total tally of countries that now maintains “diplomatic relations” with Taiwan has shriveled to 15. Since Tsai was elected as president three year ago, Taiwan’s fewer diplomatic ties have dwindled by seven.
Over the past few weeks, Taiwanese allies have been progressively distancing themselves from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) due to its rhapsodizing with Washington that has elicited tensions in the region.
The transformed approach further accentuated that the former Taiwanese cronies were not contented with Tsai Ing-wen’s despairing policies while going with China would best suit their own and the region’s interests in the long run.
Recent fray invigorated after the United States on August 20 brusquely infringed the bilateral understanding with China by announcing to sell 66 F-16C/D Block 70 aircraft to Taiwan. The Sino-US Communiqué of January 1, 1979 manifestly states “The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.”
While Taiwan alleged China for tempting Kiribati with several airplanes and commercial ferries as well as to “suppress and reduce Taiwan’s international presence”, it discounted the fact that the Taiwanese ambitions to bolster its military could have thwarted its allies to pursue realignment with China.
Taiwan’s modernization of its air fleet, for sure, was insignificant when it comes to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and was meant only to placate Washington. But in a bid to mollify the US, Tsai’s government is weakening domestically and getting isolated internationally every day.
In the given conditions, Taipei’s indictment about Chinese funding touted as “money diplomacy” sounds baseless and instead courts the Tsai and her government for causing unrest and anxieties amongst its allies by violating “One China” principle that has so far ensured peace, stability, and unity in the region.
Kiribati’s diplomatic shift in favor of China was always on the cards after the Solomon Islands, the Taiwanese biggest ally, had turned to Beijing just days before. But the worries for Taipei administration could follow if the trend continues and some of the other United Nations’ member states: Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, the Marshal Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland, and Tuvalu would be sitting to review their diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
In fact, some of them are picking up the speed to mend their ties with China. While Palau and Nauru are keen to sever their ties with Taiwan and to warm up towards Beijing, Haiti is also giving a strong consideration for a potential divergence from Taipei. Enele Sopoaga, the prime minister of Tuvalu and a strong Taiwanese supporter has stood down after general elections.
2019 has generally been a tough year for Tsai government. After DPP fared poorly in the local elections last November, Tsai popularity have gone down tremendously to as low as 15%. While Tsai froze wages and made cuts in the pensions of civil servants, teachers, and military personnel – the Taiwanese people showed their angsts in the ballots.
The dismal performance of DPP forced Tsai to step down from party leadership on 24 November 2018 and there were chatters that she could be dumped as a presidential candidate for 2020 elections.
Tsai is now gambling on Hong Kong’s strife to regain her vote bank in Taiwan. She regularly speaks on Facebook and Twitter in support of the violent protests in Hong Kong. She also met Joshua Wong, the so-called pro-democracy Hong Kong activist who visited Taiwan earlier this month.
Her solidarity with Hong Kong radicals is just a presidential ploy to mislead the voters by ramping up Beijing-phobia and she merely wants to reverse her fortune on the back of riots in Chinese Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).
Tsai’s instinct to roar the specter “Hong Kong today and Taiwan tomorrow” and trumpeting that “One Country, Two Systems” would never be an option for Taiwan, profoundly speaks of her fears to overcome defeat in coming January elections.
Taiwanese people have a valid argument to put, while she was slashing the public welfare spending, the central bank has sliced its GDP growth forecast by 0.34 percentage point, private investment is expected to moderate from 5% to 3%, and enterprise profits are weakening – how could she buy 66 fighter jets F-16s from the US for an exorbitant cost of $8 billion?
If Taiwan sticks to its confrontational policy with China – it would not be surprised if most of the countries that knot diplomatic ties with it, reconsider their alliance with Taipei and lean towards Beijing that enormous bilateral economic and strategic benefits in offering.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-09-21/Solomon-Islands-and-Kiribati-are-just-tip-of-the-iceberg--KaSbwKzhlu/index.html
In a huge diplomatic blow, Taiwan on Friday lost its second ally in a week after the Republic of Kiribati switched its diplomatic allegiance to China. Central Pacific nation’s decision followed Solomon Islands’ move on Monday to cut its ties with Taipei.
With the secession of the Republic of Kiribati and Solomon Islands, total tally of countries that now maintains “diplomatic relations” with Taiwan has shriveled to 15. Since Tsai was elected as president three year ago, Taiwan’s fewer diplomatic ties have dwindled by seven.
Over the past few weeks, Taiwanese allies have been progressively distancing themselves from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) due to its rhapsodizing with Washington that has elicited tensions in the region.
The transformed approach further accentuated that the former Taiwanese cronies were not contented with Tsai Ing-wen’s despairing policies while going with China would best suit their own and the region’s interests in the long run.
Recent fray invigorated after the United States on August 20 brusquely infringed the bilateral understanding with China by announcing to sell 66 F-16C/D Block 70 aircraft to Taiwan. The Sino-US Communiqué of January 1, 1979 manifestly states “The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.”
While Taiwan alleged China for tempting Kiribati with several airplanes and commercial ferries as well as to “suppress and reduce Taiwan’s international presence”, it discounted the fact that the Taiwanese ambitions to bolster its military could have thwarted its allies to pursue realignment with China.
Taiwan’s modernization of its air fleet, for sure, was insignificant when it comes to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and was meant only to placate Washington. But in a bid to mollify the US, Tsai’s government is weakening domestically and getting isolated internationally every day.
In the given conditions, Taipei’s indictment about Chinese funding touted as “money diplomacy” sounds baseless and instead courts the Tsai and her government for causing unrest and anxieties amongst its allies by violating “One China” principle that has so far ensured peace, stability, and unity in the region.
Kiribati’s diplomatic shift in favor of China was always on the cards after the Solomon Islands, the Taiwanese biggest ally, had turned to Beijing just days before. But the worries for Taipei administration could follow if the trend continues and some of the other United Nations’ member states: Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, the Marshal Islands, Nauru, Nicaragua, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Swaziland, and Tuvalu would be sitting to review their diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
In fact, some of them are picking up the speed to mend their ties with China. While Palau and Nauru are keen to sever their ties with Taiwan and to warm up towards Beijing, Haiti is also giving a strong consideration for a potential divergence from Taipei. Enele Sopoaga, the prime minister of Tuvalu and a strong Taiwanese supporter has stood down after general elections.
2019 has generally been a tough year for Tsai government. After DPP fared poorly in the local elections last November, Tsai popularity have gone down tremendously to as low as 15%. While Tsai froze wages and made cuts in the pensions of civil servants, teachers, and military personnel – the Taiwanese people showed their angsts in the ballots.
The dismal performance of DPP forced Tsai to step down from party leadership on 24 November 2018 and there were chatters that she could be dumped as a presidential candidate for 2020 elections.
Tsai is now gambling on Hong Kong’s strife to regain her vote bank in Taiwan. She regularly speaks on Facebook and Twitter in support of the violent protests in Hong Kong. She also met Joshua Wong, the so-called pro-democracy Hong Kong activist who visited Taiwan earlier this month.
Her solidarity with Hong Kong radicals is just a presidential ploy to mislead the voters by ramping up Beijing-phobia and she merely wants to reverse her fortune on the back of riots in Chinese Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).
Tsai’s instinct to roar the specter “Hong Kong today and Taiwan tomorrow” and trumpeting that “One Country, Two Systems” would never be an option for Taiwan, profoundly speaks of her fears to overcome defeat in coming January elections.
Taiwanese people have a valid argument to put, while she was slashing the public welfare spending, the central bank has sliced its GDP growth forecast by 0.34 percentage point, private investment is expected to moderate from 5% to 3%, and enterprise profits are weakening – how could she buy 66 fighter jets F-16s from the US for an exorbitant cost of $8 billion?
If Taiwan sticks to its confrontational policy with China – it would not be surprised if most of the countries that knot diplomatic ties with it, reconsider their alliance with Taipei and lean towards Beijing that enormous bilateral economic and strategic benefits in offering.