By: Azhar Azam
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2065184/6-curbs-iran-inflating-us-oil-exports/
Most hawkish Trump’s aide and staunch advocate of preemptive strikes on Iran, US former national security advisor John Bolton, was ousted from White House but the Trump administration is not short of saber-rattlers yet.
After Saturday’s drone attacks on two major oilfields in Saudi Arabia, US president instantly got a ‘clue’ to identify the “culprit” while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wasted no time to accuse Iran for “unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.”
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Abbas Mousavi clapped back at Pompeo. In his media talk Mousavi said “such accusations as well as blind and futile comments are pointless and not understandable within the framework of diplomacy.”
On Monday, Tehran spurned the “speculation” that Iranian President Hassam Rouhani is likely to meet US President Donald Trump during the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) later this month. Trump also rebuffed Pompeo’s prior avowal that he may meet Rouhani at UNGA with “no preconditions.”
With the latest developments, French President Emanuel Macron’s diplomatic coup at G7 Summit – to brokering a potential meeting between the two presidents – has sank in the Arabian Sea and the “roadmap” of diplomacy that was “sort of been set” has nearly washed out.
Trump veiled and Pompeo blunt allegations on Iran appear to raise the specter of a US military response Iran that would serve to escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf. But as there is no “definite” evidence about Iran’s involvement for coordinated drone attacks on Saudi oilfields, Trump’s craving to avoid and at the same time preparedness for war “more than anybody” is confusing and hints at an inoperable rhetoric.
United States, on several occasions before, has threatened to wage a war on Tehran but realistically the people of Iran have already been in a state of war, maybe even worse than that, due to US economic sanctions particularly after Trump withdrew from 2015 Iran nuclear deal in May 2018.
On paper, medicines and medical equipment and supplies are excluded from the US economic sanctions on Iran. But since the Iranian financial institutions are barred to make transactions with the international world, the ailing people in Iran are essentially pushed into the “ring of death.”
Parsian Bank, the vital conduit for humanitarian trade, was one of the Iranian banks that survived the sanctions by the Obama administration. In October 2018, the US Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) further put a squeeze on Iranians by sanctioning the Parisan Bank, locking up the odd ray of hope for them.
Iran has one of the fastest growth rates of cancer in the world. Every year, about 112,000 new cases of cancer patients including children are reported in Iran. With US sanctions re-imposition, the probability of existence of cancer survivors has significantly dimmed.
In addition, while pharmaceutical companies producing life-saving drugs are largely located in European countries or the US – they vacillate to sell critical medicines and medical devices to Iran over fears that Treasury Department might find some technical or administrative lope-holes to punish them for dealing with Iran.
Although France, Germany, and the United Kingdom launched a barter system, known as INSTEX, to bypass US banking system and to facilitate transactions with Iran – however the swap structure could only provide a limited support for food and medicine to Iranian population owing to US “maximum pressure” campaign to bring Iran’s crude exports down to zero.
As Iranian economy is heavily reliant on energy exports – crude oil and natural gas – the US sanctions have severely impacted the country’s economy and have fueled people’s miseries. As a result of US killing restrictions, Iran’s crude exports have declined 77% since last year while the staggering inflation of more than 40% has radically ascended the prices of foodstuffs in Iran.
In June, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said that country’s oil exports were weaker even than during the Iran-Iraq war in 1980s, when Tehran oil fields were under attack. ”Our situation is worse than during the war,” Zanganeh said. Speaking on national television President Rouhani put it like this “Today the country is facing the biggest pressure and economic sanctions in the past 40 year.”
US sanctions on Iran has allowed America to inflate its crude oil exports by a whopping 60% in just more than one year. When Trump withdrew from Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, the US crude exports were just over 2.0 million barrels per day. But once he reinstated sanctions on Iran and vouched to bring its crude exports down to zero, the US oil exports starkly climbed to about 3.2 million barrels per day in July.
Much of the US crude was exported to the buyers of Iranian oil. Nearly all the buyers of Iranian oil – such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea – are now importing crude from United States. While crude oil accounted for 72% of Europe’s total energy imports in 2018, the sanctions would help US to ratchet up oil exports to European nations.
“Maximum pressure” campaign is inflicting havoc on Iran’s economy. IMF estimates that Iranian economy contracted 3.9% in 2018 after posting a growth of 3.7% and 12.5% in 2017 and 2016 respectively – and is likely to further shrink by 6% this year. The burden of trashing Iranian economy will eventually be endured by the people of the country who would be forced to live a more dismal life.
US crusade on Iran would additionally press Tehran to retrench its public spending – narrowing the federal government’s ability to fund basic human needs of health and education for its public that would mean an increased human toll resulting from American economic sanctions on Iran.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2065184/6-curbs-iran-inflating-us-oil-exports/
Most hawkish Trump’s aide and staunch advocate of preemptive strikes on Iran, US former national security advisor John Bolton, was ousted from White House but the Trump administration is not short of saber-rattlers yet.
After Saturday’s drone attacks on two major oilfields in Saudi Arabia, US president instantly got a ‘clue’ to identify the “culprit” while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wasted no time to accuse Iran for “unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.”
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Abbas Mousavi clapped back at Pompeo. In his media talk Mousavi said “such accusations as well as blind and futile comments are pointless and not understandable within the framework of diplomacy.”
On Monday, Tehran spurned the “speculation” that Iranian President Hassam Rouhani is likely to meet US President Donald Trump during the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) later this month. Trump also rebuffed Pompeo’s prior avowal that he may meet Rouhani at UNGA with “no preconditions.”
With the latest developments, French President Emanuel Macron’s diplomatic coup at G7 Summit – to brokering a potential meeting between the two presidents – has sank in the Arabian Sea and the “roadmap” of diplomacy that was “sort of been set” has nearly washed out.
Trump veiled and Pompeo blunt allegations on Iran appear to raise the specter of a US military response Iran that would serve to escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf. But as there is no “definite” evidence about Iran’s involvement for coordinated drone attacks on Saudi oilfields, Trump’s craving to avoid and at the same time preparedness for war “more than anybody” is confusing and hints at an inoperable rhetoric.
United States, on several occasions before, has threatened to wage a war on Tehran but realistically the people of Iran have already been in a state of war, maybe even worse than that, due to US economic sanctions particularly after Trump withdrew from 2015 Iran nuclear deal in May 2018.
On paper, medicines and medical equipment and supplies are excluded from the US economic sanctions on Iran. But since the Iranian financial institutions are barred to make transactions with the international world, the ailing people in Iran are essentially pushed into the “ring of death.”
Parsian Bank, the vital conduit for humanitarian trade, was one of the Iranian banks that survived the sanctions by the Obama administration. In October 2018, the US Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) further put a squeeze on Iranians by sanctioning the Parisan Bank, locking up the odd ray of hope for them.
Iran has one of the fastest growth rates of cancer in the world. Every year, about 112,000 new cases of cancer patients including children are reported in Iran. With US sanctions re-imposition, the probability of existence of cancer survivors has significantly dimmed.
In addition, while pharmaceutical companies producing life-saving drugs are largely located in European countries or the US – they vacillate to sell critical medicines and medical devices to Iran over fears that Treasury Department might find some technical or administrative lope-holes to punish them for dealing with Iran.
Although France, Germany, and the United Kingdom launched a barter system, known as INSTEX, to bypass US banking system and to facilitate transactions with Iran – however the swap structure could only provide a limited support for food and medicine to Iranian population owing to US “maximum pressure” campaign to bring Iran’s crude exports down to zero.
As Iranian economy is heavily reliant on energy exports – crude oil and natural gas – the US sanctions have severely impacted the country’s economy and have fueled people’s miseries. As a result of US killing restrictions, Iran’s crude exports have declined 77% since last year while the staggering inflation of more than 40% has radically ascended the prices of foodstuffs in Iran.
In June, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said that country’s oil exports were weaker even than during the Iran-Iraq war in 1980s, when Tehran oil fields were under attack. ”Our situation is worse than during the war,” Zanganeh said. Speaking on national television President Rouhani put it like this “Today the country is facing the biggest pressure and economic sanctions in the past 40 year.”
US sanctions on Iran has allowed America to inflate its crude oil exports by a whopping 60% in just more than one year. When Trump withdrew from Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, the US crude exports were just over 2.0 million barrels per day. But once he reinstated sanctions on Iran and vouched to bring its crude exports down to zero, the US oil exports starkly climbed to about 3.2 million barrels per day in July.
Much of the US crude was exported to the buyers of Iranian oil. Nearly all the buyers of Iranian oil – such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea – are now importing crude from United States. While crude oil accounted for 72% of Europe’s total energy imports in 2018, the sanctions would help US to ratchet up oil exports to European nations.
“Maximum pressure” campaign is inflicting havoc on Iran’s economy. IMF estimates that Iranian economy contracted 3.9% in 2018 after posting a growth of 3.7% and 12.5% in 2017 and 2016 respectively – and is likely to further shrink by 6% this year. The burden of trashing Iranian economy will eventually be endured by the people of the country who would be forced to live a more dismal life.
US crusade on Iran would additionally press Tehran to retrench its public spending – narrowing the federal government’s ability to fund basic human needs of health and education for its public that would mean an increased human toll resulting from American economic sanctions on Iran.