December 12, 2019

Strained Middle East zipping toward China as alternative to the US

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)" https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-12-10/Strained-Middle-East-zipping-toward-China-as-alternative-to-the-U-S--MjcsJ8q8Ao/index.html and was republished by "China Military" http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2019-12/11/content_9693859.htm, "PLA Daily" http://english.pladaily.com.cn/view/2019-12/11/content_9693859.htm and "Asia Pacific Daily" https://www.apdnews.com/Insightsi/975411.html

US interests in Middle East, especially in Arabian Peninsula, have tremendously truncated following its self-reliance in meeting its vast domestic energy needs that sliced its monthly crude oil imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in September to almost halve from last year.

Shale revolution greatly helped US to tersely cut its oil dependency on its largest crude supplier, Saudi Arabia. Over the past three years, Washington’s crude imports from Riyadh declined sharply from 1,209,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September 2016 to 458,000 bpd in September 2019.

So Arabia, once the sine qua non of US foreign policy, is now primarily a region that the US is eying at to inflate its arms sale. And thanks to the entrenched Mideast conflicts, the US continues to sell billions of dollars of armaments to the regional nations every year while retaining a tight control on some of the lethal military technologies.

Yet due to the US boastful attitude and scratchy clash-fueling policy, Gulf kingdoms are now rapidly zipping toward China as an alternative to US in the Middle East. Beijing generally maintains good relations with all the regional states and is better positioned to broker peace in conflict-shrouded zone.

China’s trademark recipe of resolving disputes through political and peaceful dialogue perfectly fits in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ foreign policy amid plunging international oil prices and their unceasingly wearying economies.

In middle of growing tensions in Mideast, Gulf economies are expected to shrink from 2% in 2018 to 0.7% in 2019 collectively. Over dwindling GDP growth, sustainable peace and economic stabilization will be the top insistence of GCC countries in place of large weapon acquisitions from Washington.

Arabian world has ostensibly realized that billions of dollars of defense spending and arms purchases from the US cannot warrant peace in Mideast and they eventually have to get along and offset disputes for a wider goal of regional security and economic growth, which incidentally are the fortes of Chinese expertise.

China is working proactively to promote peace in Middle East. On November 27 and 28, more than 200 delegates from China and Mideast gathered in Beijing to participate in the Middle East Security Forum to discuss security issues, challenges, threats and their two-pronged ties. Majority of the attendees slammed US unilateral and dominant policy in the region and urged to end the unfair local order that was stemmed from American intervention and undue pressures.

The participating Gulf officials acclaimed Chinese-conceived proposals – to stay committed for a political settlement, defending basic principles of fairness and justice, leveraging key role of the United Nations, and forging synergy in the region and international community – for the regional security issues.

Middle East propensity in the direction of China is momentous and infers deeper and far-fetched medium and long-term impacts on the regional politics. While it shows Gulf’s hulking trust deficit with the US, it also demonstrates that Arabian nations perceive themselves more aligned with Chinese foreign policy to mitigate differences through diplomatic channels.

Beijing is the second-largest economy and the world’s largest exporter of the goods but it has never bullied its allies or rivals with US-like trade tariffs and other intimidating moves to force down sovereign nations. China advocates the core principles of coexistence and multilateralism, promotes peace reconciliation and precludes imposing self-made international rules such as inflicting sanctions if someone does not adhere to its policies.

That’s why the recently concluded China-Saudi joint naval drills, Blue Sword 2019, did not aim to overawe anyone and focused to enhance mutual trust and friendly relations, exchange experiences and improve the training level of the two special naval forces.

While Washington overburdened the ailing Riyadh economy by deploying thousands of US troops at the expense of the Kingdom, Beijing stationed over 1,800 troops in Middle East as part of UN peacekeeping mission. Lucidly, the US is flaming conflicts in the region whereas China is trying to restore peace in the region under a global diplomatic body.

China iconic blueprint of economic and technological cooperation is an ideal solution for Middle East to buoy up their lurching economies. Being the world’s biggest oil market, China can enormously aid oil exports-reliant GCC nations to revert their economic downslide. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing can additionally cater the transportation and infrastructure needs of the regional countries.

After China’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia zoomed to a new height to reach about 2 million bpd in October at a windy increase of 76% year-on-year, Beijing did not seek Riyadh to take reciprocal measures and boost its imports from China. In addition, China is extending its economic, e-commerce, financial technology, logistics and artificial intelligence cooperation with other Gulf States such as United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain.

As US is moving away from the Gulf oil markets, China has got an enormous potential to put forward a comprehensible and harmonized plan. Beijing maintains deep ties with Tehran and embraces strong economic relations with GCC states, so is in an ideal position to play an active role to facilitate regional peace and revive sopping economies, which would be heartily welcomed by the countries across the Middle East.