By: Azhar Azam
Despite all refutations by American officials and they were only willing to discuss force reconfiguration, the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS/Daesh is being given the sack by Iraqi government to shut down all its military bases in a sequel to the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January.
The United States perhaps thought its feint, to display a military muscle in Baghdad, would further divide the political leadership of one of the most conflict-stricken nations in the world and allow it to gain a strategic edge in the region.
But the gamble backfired as the whirlwind American airstrike – which toyed with and ran over Iraq’s sovereignty – blurted out the stoicism of even the rival blocs in Iraq as they jointly said no to any venturesome agenda and called for a complete withdrawal of foreign troops.
On July 25, the military alliance freed another military base, Besmaya Camp, near Baghdad and handed it over to the Iraqi security forces. With the return of military site by Spanish forces, the total number of bases returned to their counterparts has clocked seven.
The consistent and firm stance by the Baghdad government, to protect its national domain and not laying down its arms for any dicey remote objectives, has compelled Washington that now looks to slash its troop presence in Iraq.
Frequent and emphatic American invasions of Iraq over the last thirty years have infringed international laws and rolled the eyes of the world, causing global trust in the US to nosedive. A January poll told that Washington’s “Trustworthiness” among the worldwide countries had witnessed a sharpest drop of more than 50% since 2016.
Washington’s emergence as an unreliable state on the global theater and its primitive trait – urging its allies to waive their sovereignty and forfeit freedom to adopt an independent foreign policy – would push not only Baghdad but many of its other partners further away and isolate the US internationally.
The White House claims that it is determined to deepen strategic partnership with Iraq and Iraqi people. But neither Baghdad government nor its folks have historically embraced Washington boot-imprint in the country with gusto.
After the US was driven out in December 2011 by Iraq following a collapsed deal to host thousands of US troops as trainers, Iraqis felt a sense of sovereignty and believed that the Americans had left them in chaos with elephantine power shortage, devastated infrastructure, fading economy and ever-increasing joblessness.
But creation of a cutthroat terrorist group, ISIS, by Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi in the second-largest Iraqi city, Mosul, in September 2014 permitted the US to recoup its military footprint in Iraq. The former US president Barack Obama, who boasted about fulfillment of his troop withdrawal promise in 2011, ordered the redeployment of forces in Baghdad.
Iraqis were once again herded into higher gear of insecurity and economic despair from either side; American salvo and ISIS brutality. Though record levels of oil production in 2018 somewhat helped Baghdad to fix its financial contagion however foreign intervention, internal conflicts and sectarian violence prevented the vantage to metamorphose into an employment and opulence windfall.
While Iraqis deplored the secret Trump’s Christmas trip to the US troops on Ain Al-Asad airbase in December 2018 and dubbed his visit a “blatant” and “flagrant and clear” violation of Iraq’s sovereignty” and “diplomatic norms” – after January incident, hundreds of people rallied in Baghdad and chanted “No, No to America” and “No, No to occupation,” forcing a number of coalition members to move their troops out of Iraq.
And don’t forget that back home in the country, a significant majority of American taxpayers – each of whom has so far subsidized roughly $8,000 out of total $2 trillion in Iraq – have not historically countersigned the Baghdad offensive in 2003.
As Trump sets neo-normal of a much-tottering US leadership and the White House remains unpopular worldwide, the declining trust among young American adults on the federal government and institutions, warns of a baking crisis that could get worse ahead of the 2020 presidential elections.
Donald Trump’s plunging popularity internationally and skydiving approval ratings domestically – could make him more aggressive amid fears of conceding the White House to Joe Biden. Though he has recurrently vowed to end US “endless wars” but the coronavirus-hit economic wounds can pressgang him to pass any controversial orders like before to grab an election win.
At the same time, the hurricane – which stemmed from the violation of Iraq sovereignty – is yet to veg out as a number of US allies, which have arrayed their militaries to Baghdad, keep concerned with protection of their forces. Canada, meanwhile, is also quietly reducing its military muscle in strife-torn Iraq.
If Washington fails to draw a moral equivalence with Baghdad, the impervious Iraqi drift could spread to other regional US allies, hosting American military bases, to revisit the transactional immunity granted to foreign troops. The potential rift would be a terrific opportunity for politically-weakened Trump to intensify his unsavory pomposity and boost his presidential candidacy.
The United States perhaps thought its feint, to display a military muscle in Baghdad, would further divide the political leadership of one of the most conflict-stricken nations in the world and allow it to gain a strategic edge in the region.
But the gamble backfired as the whirlwind American airstrike – which toyed with and ran over Iraq’s sovereignty – blurted out the stoicism of even the rival blocs in Iraq as they jointly said no to any venturesome agenda and called for a complete withdrawal of foreign troops.
On July 25, the military alliance freed another military base, Besmaya Camp, near Baghdad and handed it over to the Iraqi security forces. With the return of military site by Spanish forces, the total number of bases returned to their counterparts has clocked seven.
The consistent and firm stance by the Baghdad government, to protect its national domain and not laying down its arms for any dicey remote objectives, has compelled Washington that now looks to slash its troop presence in Iraq.
Frequent and emphatic American invasions of Iraq over the last thirty years have infringed international laws and rolled the eyes of the world, causing global trust in the US to nosedive. A January poll told that Washington’s “Trustworthiness” among the worldwide countries had witnessed a sharpest drop of more than 50% since 2016.
Washington’s emergence as an unreliable state on the global theater and its primitive trait – urging its allies to waive their sovereignty and forfeit freedom to adopt an independent foreign policy – would push not only Baghdad but many of its other partners further away and isolate the US internationally.
The White House claims that it is determined to deepen strategic partnership with Iraq and Iraqi people. But neither Baghdad government nor its folks have historically embraced Washington boot-imprint in the country with gusto.
After the US was driven out in December 2011 by Iraq following a collapsed deal to host thousands of US troops as trainers, Iraqis felt a sense of sovereignty and believed that the Americans had left them in chaos with elephantine power shortage, devastated infrastructure, fading economy and ever-increasing joblessness.
But creation of a cutthroat terrorist group, ISIS, by Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi in the second-largest Iraqi city, Mosul, in September 2014 permitted the US to recoup its military footprint in Iraq. The former US president Barack Obama, who boasted about fulfillment of his troop withdrawal promise in 2011, ordered the redeployment of forces in Baghdad.
Iraqis were once again herded into higher gear of insecurity and economic despair from either side; American salvo and ISIS brutality. Though record levels of oil production in 2018 somewhat helped Baghdad to fix its financial contagion however foreign intervention, internal conflicts and sectarian violence prevented the vantage to metamorphose into an employment and opulence windfall.
While Iraqis deplored the secret Trump’s Christmas trip to the US troops on Ain Al-Asad airbase in December 2018 and dubbed his visit a “blatant” and “flagrant and clear” violation of Iraq’s sovereignty” and “diplomatic norms” – after January incident, hundreds of people rallied in Baghdad and chanted “No, No to America” and “No, No to occupation,” forcing a number of coalition members to move their troops out of Iraq.
And don’t forget that back home in the country, a significant majority of American taxpayers – each of whom has so far subsidized roughly $8,000 out of total $2 trillion in Iraq – have not historically countersigned the Baghdad offensive in 2003.
As Trump sets neo-normal of a much-tottering US leadership and the White House remains unpopular worldwide, the declining trust among young American adults on the federal government and institutions, warns of a baking crisis that could get worse ahead of the 2020 presidential elections.
Donald Trump’s plunging popularity internationally and skydiving approval ratings domestically – could make him more aggressive amid fears of conceding the White House to Joe Biden. Though he has recurrently vowed to end US “endless wars” but the coronavirus-hit economic wounds can pressgang him to pass any controversial orders like before to grab an election win.
At the same time, the hurricane – which stemmed from the violation of Iraq sovereignty – is yet to veg out as a number of US allies, which have arrayed their militaries to Baghdad, keep concerned with protection of their forces. Canada, meanwhile, is also quietly reducing its military muscle in strife-torn Iraq.
If Washington fails to draw a moral equivalence with Baghdad, the impervious Iraqi drift could spread to other regional US allies, hosting American military bases, to revisit the transactional immunity granted to foreign troops. The potential rift would be a terrific opportunity for politically-weakened Trump to intensify his unsavory pomposity and boost his presidential candidacy.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2258142/a-politically-weakened-trump-and-iraq
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2258142/a-politically-weakened-trump-and-iraq