By: Azhar Azam
In April 1975, a 15-year long civil war broke out in Lebanon with armed conflict between Lebanese Christian militias and Palestinians that was quickly backed by leftists and Muslim segments. With US endorsement, Syrian army intervened in 1976 to help embattled Christian forces whereas Israel in 1982 invaded the country by launching Operation Peace for Galilee in southern Lebanon.
Though battle among confessional communities ended in 1990 with killing of 120,000 people and Lebanese army finished off the ouster of PLO in 1991 – Israel resumed occupation of southern Lebanon and withdrew only in May 2000 through enforced UNSC resolutions. International community wielded enormous pressure on Syria at the heels of assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and it too pulled out its troops from country in 2005.
Foreign military draw-down unchanged Lebanon a sporadic opportunity to move toward stability and retrieve renaissance of its capital, Beirut. But the spillover of Syrian refugees and Iran-backed and -inspired Hezbollah’s militant engagement in Syria to prop up Assad regime against rebellion groups as well as involvement in Iranian-led meddling in Iraq grassed this big-break.
Resultantly, 1989 Taif Agreement is yet to implement its core objective of obliterating political sectarianism in Lebanon and the country stays alienated from inter-faith harmony and mutual respect. In addition, religious diversity in Lebanese population– comprising 61.1% Muslims (Sunnis 30.6% and Shias 30.5%), Christians 33.7% (largely Maronite Catholics) and Druze (5.2%) – would be the biggest roadblock to derive unity among leading political blocs, supported by Saudi Arabia, Iran, France and Britain, making Lebanon prone to foreign interventions.
Lebanese people apprehend potential disparity between national leadership and protests, forcing Hassan Diab’s government to resign after the Beirut port explosion, could just be the beginning of nationwide awakening against the corrupt ruling elite. Similarly, they might also question the role of Hezbollah, which elevated its stature in Muslim world by confronting Israeli brutalities and expansionist polices, but seems to have changed tracks to serve as Iranian proxy in Lebanon and region.
Concurrently, Lebanese Christians are not shy to hide their association with France. By visiting Beirut as the first foreign head of state, calling for a new political system and giving a caveat to Iran to stay out of Lebanon – President Emmanuel Macron has disclosed his intention to encroach on a former French colony to counter Turkish influence in Mediterranean.
Paris is wary of Ankara’s oil exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean and would look to exploit Lebanese crisis to advance its regional strategic goals and online petition from Lebanese, urging him to take control of Lebanon for 10 years, should revivify his hopes to roll a sandy pitch for Turkey in the region. While Turkish vice president and foreign minister immediately reached Beirut to show their solidarity with Lebanese people, the tour touts Ankara's cloaked plan to replace Riyadh in Lebanon as a protector of Sunnis and warns of a new geopolitical rivalry.
For France, it would be credulous to expect Iran to draw back its support for Hezbollah and retrench its mastery in Lebanese politics. As Iran reaffirms its support for Lebanon and keeps on using its proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen in a way assisting Israel by denting the fragile unity in Ummah – the Middle East is heading en route for a much deeper catastrophe. Lebanese failing system, corruption, mismanagement and free-falling economy, in the meantime, will make Lebanon another chessboard for regional and global powers to pursue their nefarious agendas.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2259806/big-powers-and-the-lebanese-chessboard