Decoupling amid the pandemic?

By: Azhar Azam

Once an outbreak of the suspected pneumonia plagued parts of China and government stalled all economic activities to control its spread – Trump’s aides wielded maximum force to aggrandize that Beijing won’t outlive president’s trade war and epidemic was a good omen for American economy, dismissing the idea of suspending tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing’s economy was overwhelmed by the coronavirus. 

Strict lockdowns and other measures by Chinese government at the outburst of deadly disease, nevertheless, turned out to be a groovy strategy that not only helped Beijing to pull through the health crisis but also to drub all experts’ forecasts about the falling trajectory of its economy by recording growth rate of 3.2% in Q2-2020.

At a time when nearly all the major economies were wolfed by Covid-19, the sweeping anti-pandemic and disease-preventive gauges put China in a position to prevent a tailspin and resume it prior high-octane growth. The US, meanwhile, is knee deep in the first of coronavirus though Trump is still showboating his handling of the lethal germ has eclipsed other countries.

In its most recent World Economic Outlook, IMF got the whiff about Chinese economic arousal, which was untwisting to echo its recent past, and projected China to be the only major economy to post a positive growth in 2020 and sustain its leadership with 8.2% growth in 2021.

Last week, an article in The Wall Street Journal also touted China's early control on the fatal illness as a prime mover for the quick resumption of economic activities and economists such as Brookings Institution’s Homi Kharas predicted Beijing to square off the gap with Washington beforehand.

Mark Henry, CEO of world’s largest miner BHP who expects a sharp contraction, says that Beijing is a beam of light where “pretty solid V-shaped recovery” is underway. His expectations surged on the back of an infrastructure boom in China as cash injections of hundreds of billions of dollars by the government ramped up imports of iron ore and boosted prices of the commodity to highest level since 2014 even amid a pandemic.

The evolving scenario, in which Chinese economy is set to outperform US, is pushing Trump to scale up his bullheadedness and step up his decoupling campaign with the second-biggest economy of the world. His idolization of the White House has emboldened him pursuing a sheer hostile attitude toward Beijing ahead of looming presidential elections.

In order to take the charge of the most advanced nation for another for years, Trump needs the support of an outsized number of voters to ward off his most-hyped China threat. As Americans may not pass over his derisory policy of the coronavirus, which has viciously sickened them in throngs and roiled the economy to the brink with millions losing their jobs and businesses struggling to drive sales, his out coupling maneuvers may suffer a strong setback.

While divorce is still “a long way away” due to the deep integration between the two leading powers, his drive for a China-free global environment is further defied by Beijing’s ramped up trade with ASEAN and Europe, seeing their bilateral trade increase by 6.6% and 1% respectively in July. The nations’ trade interests would additionally deal a harsh blow to Trump’s decoupling.

The besieged Trump is however convinced that confrontation with China could turn the ride of his nationwide declining approval trend and decoupling would do the trick for bagging a second term. His political blunderbuss, through risking the economy and pressing the US allies to follow his footsteps to decouple from China, is a recipe of disaster.

In the Q2-2020, the US economy has shriveled at a record pace of 32.9% and cannot swallow the higher cost of decoupling with smaller trading partners, let alone China. Albeit Trump’s tariff and sanction jolts, Beijing is yet Washington’s third-largest trading partner. The economic assimilation on each other would therefore force both to remain tied in a messy-but-compelling relationship.

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2263353/wall-street-journal-decoupling-amid-the-pandemic

Time is over for American hegemonic discourse

By: Azhar Azam

There is an inherent difference in the approach of the two major global powers - China and the United States – to international relations. The latter seeks a world in which the nations have a toothless national defense and remain obedient so that it could overpower them at will for its hegemonic objectives.

In order to placate the lust of its worldwide dominance, U.S. invaded and intervened in several sovereign countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and toppled some of the legitimate governments to rationalize the deployment of 200,000 troops at hundreds of military bases around the world in the name of preserving freedom and security.

China's emergence as a major economic power in the last several decades, without posing a threat to overrun the sovereignty of any nations while promoting the notion of cooperation and engagement, injected a fresh impetus to the world and ripped up decades-old American model of controlling by force.

Over the decades, China has achieved this phenomenal success through its Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence – mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in other’s internal affairs, equality and mutually benefit, and peaceful coexistence. China's commitment to stick by peace and stability laid the foundation of its development, as well as winched up hopes of poverty-stricken Asia and Africa continents.

Besides proposing a win-win solution to transform the lives of people and making peace an axiom of its foreign policy, the trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is opening new horizons for inter-state and cross-regional trade cooperation, giving harmony a chance to prevail over tensions and reducing the risk of confrontation.

The ambassadorship of peace, furtherance of multilateralism, idea to share the developmental berries and investment through mega infrastructure plan demonstrated China's effectiveness, as a Pew Research Center’s survey in December 2019 found that Chinese economic growth was welcomed by the emerging markets.

Protection of national integrity is the fundamental right of all countries. While Beijing pushes for dialogue to defuse friction and believes that the negotiation is the way to move forward, the sole purpose to sharpen its military prowess is to secure the border, maintain peace and safeguard national interests.

It's nothing like the U.S., whose invasions and interference in other regions have fueled volatility and economic mess. China is trying to bind the wounds of the subjugated nations through construction of roads, seaports, job creation and welfare projects and has pledged its support for any peace process that could lead toward stability and strengthening of governance system.

The unequivocal divergence in the approaches and their implementations, with Washington militarizing the world for its ambitions and Beijing presenting a trade-conducive solution for a peaceable global environment, is the real source of contention between the two largest economies.

Islamabad, a victim of the U.S. frequent drone violations and someone that carried the weight of American war in Afghanistan in the form of enormous human casualties and economic losses, now sees its economic future linked with Beijing. In an interview with Al Jazeera published on September 3, Prime Minister Imran Khan termed Pakistan's relations with China "better than ever before" and showed interest in learning from Chinese development through which it lifted millions of its people from poverty.

By increasing its two-way trade with Beijing by 6 percent in July, ASEAN also endorsed Chinese vitality for boosting bilateral economic growth. The joint statement following the recent consultations between the two sides, stressing on the importance of multilateral trading system amid coronavirus pandemic, was a blunt rebuttal of the U.S.' unilateralism and propaganda about China's "economic coercion."

Germany's open support for multilateralism and Italy tagging China a key strategic partner and rejection of unilateral approaches show Europe is waking up to the aggressive, confrontational and protectionist policies of the Trump administration in the follow up to the White House cold war mentality.

The time for American hegemonic discourse to drive a wedge between Beijing and the rest of the world and reconsolidate its withering global dominance by propagating the China threat is over.

*This is one of my opinion pieces that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-05/Time-is-over-for-American-hegemonic-discourse-TwWatlUo1O/index.html

US military’s new trauma

By: Azhar Azam

The US Army at Fort Hood in Texas has finally tracked down the whereabouts of its Sgt. Elder Fernandez but with his soul missing from his body. An African American and a chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear specialist had disappeared on August 17 once he transferred units after reporting sexual abuse.

While remains of another military-women Vanessa Guillén, sexually assaulted and bludgeoned to death with a hammer at the army post by the fellow soldier, were discovered only after an extensive nationwide online and social media outcry – the vices of harassment and violence are strengthening roots in the US army.

A DOD report for 2019 said the number of victims or subjects in the military had increased by 3% to 7,825 – claiming it could not be characterized as a jump in the cases. But with no such survey conducted or required in the year, the statistics are inordinately shifty and practically a maneuver to whitewash the hard truths.

Shattering the findings, the officials of advocacy organization said that it “raises more questions about (military sexual trauma) than it answers” and described “This is a version of the military’s #MeToo.” The confutation came in the wake of Pentagon's 2018 survey that shocked and appalled everybody, revealing the attacks on women in uniform had soared by 50% and learning at least 20,500 instances of “unwanted sexual contact” in the year against active-duty men and women.

Issue earlier drew political significance after Republican Senator Martha McSally publicly said she was raped by a senior officer. Her valiant move to expose the abuse of power in the ranks of American military united the US society except Congress that remained divided on making changes in the military prosecution.

In its factsheet, another nonpartisan group noted 76.1% victims did not report the crime and of those who did, 59% and 24% were assaulted by a high ranking official or someone in their chain of command. Reporting a case has a cost so a third of them are discharged after reporting, typically within 7 months of making a report.

Drastic fall of 60% in convictions despite a 22% increase in unrestricted sexual assaults since 2015 is clearly an indication of plummeting trust of victims on their military system and prosecution that fosters the culture of sexual offenses and protects the harassers and suppresses the sufferers over fears of security, future and retaliation.

An investigation by Army Forces Command in late June documented one-third of the women were being sexually harassed on Fort Hood. The survey results elevated concerns among US army veterans who grilled flawed military justice system and observed “little has changed in the military in the last 30 years.”

Fernandez and Guillén are not the only Service members disappeared and killed in Fort Hood, there has been a total of 23 deaths this year including at least seven died or found dead at the base since March – telling how much one of world’s biggest armies was gripped with a wider range of crimes other than sexual molestation.

A series of tragic episodes pressed Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy to admit Guillén’s slaying was a “tipping point” and Ford Hood had one of the highest rates of murder, sexual assault and harassment in the US military. The manifestations of violence and nonconsensual kinky activity additionally forced DOD to put a hold on transfer of Commander Scott Efflandt and determine his failures.

With this grim situation of rape epidemic, it is hard for Americans to believe their armed forces, by any means, had developed a better military environment. As two presidential rivals, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, are politicking on a critical national issue, the sexual assaults on low rank service men and women are turning out to be a common practice and blunting the image of the US military considerably in the American nation.

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "The Express Tribune":
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2262164/us-militarys-new-trauma

India should clearly support the Afghan peace process

By: Azhar Azam

Once Afghan President Ashraf Ghani crossed the last barrier to the long-delayed peace talks with the Afghan Taliban in Doha and signed off a ruling to allow the release of the final bunch prisoners, a new wave of violence and terrorist incidents rocked Afghanistan. 

After a swarm of rockets jarred Kabul and took three lives with one of the projectiles slammed into Arg presidential palace, housing several embassies and NATO headquarters, at least 14 pro-government "Public Uprising Forces" were also killed on August 20 in Takhar province. The Taliban have yet to comment on the attack.

Earlier, a top-ranking government employee Abdul Baqi Amin, who was part of Afghan delegation that held several rounds of talks with Taliban in Qatari capital on reducing violence and women rights, was snuffed out in a car blast. Amin's killing followed an assassination attempt on Fawzia Koofi, another member of the Afghan negotiating team.

While experts linked the recent attacks as an attempt to sabotage the Afghan peace process and Taliban leaders condemned the assaults on peace and rights activists, it is important that both the warring parties keep their head cool and do not deflect the attention from crucial peace consultations.

It is, nevertheless, equally essential for the deal brokers, particularly the U.S., to closely observe the proceedings and scrutinize regional elements that feel themselves isolated from the positive developments in Afghanistan, believing that that the actualization of intra-Afghan dialogue could stymie their strategic regional objectives.

New Delhi gained phenomenal clout after 9/11 through three billion U.S. dollars of investments but its indecision to respond on Washington suggestion to engage with Taliban makes it at odds with its ally. The U.S. Special Representative to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad in his brief visit to India in May said that such an engagement would be "appropriate" for India.

Indian defense experts have warned that the return of Taliban and Afghan peace process would affect New Delhi interests and weaken its position in Kabul given the alleged Islamabad influence on the armed faction, latter's role in future security arrangements, broadening of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and growing Iran-China-Pakistan axis in Afghanistan.

The cautious support for the reconciliation exercise cast a pall over India's determination for an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned intra-Afghan dialogue, seen vital by all the stakeholders and global powers for a sustainable peace and stability in the graveyard of empires, region and the world over.

New Delhi's wariness toward the Taliban has pushed it to denounce India for playing a negative role in Afghanistan and supporting terrorists. Pakistan too has also long indicted its rival for launching terrorist activities on its soil from Afghanistan, urging the international community "to be watchful of the role and machination of spoilers working against establishment of lasting peace in Afghanistan."

Two Indian analysts wrote in Foreign Policy that "India's Afghanistan policy is not driven by ideological or humanitarian concerns" but by a desire to limit Islamabad's influence. It denotes that New Delhi's economic and military assistance to Kabul was harbored by an underlying cause to erode Islamabad's security, raise the roof between the two nations and disrupt China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) expansion to the neighborhood.

Quick evacuation of four Indian citizens from Afghanistan following Pakistan, with China help, approached the United Nations Security Council with complete dossiers and overwhelming evidence about their involvement in terrorism.

Heinous killing of 25 Sikhs in March near the gate of crematorium in Kabul by an Indian national and New Delhi's failed lobbying to prevent the condemnation of terrorist attack on Pakistan Stock Exchange should sensitize the international peacemakers.

Prevalent poverty and endemic unemployment in Afghanistan is a seduction for India to exploit the vulnerable youth against Pakistan. As Islamabad and Beijing make efforts to integrate CPEC, a BRI limb, with Kabul to decompress stark domestic economic challenges – New Delhi's shot at the peace and prosperity of the battle-weary country would push it into an unprecedented syndrome.

India shouldn't paint CPEC or its roadmap of its mother plan a threat and must stop spreading myths about it. The project isn't designed militarily to circumscribe any country; it is purely an infrastructure blueprint that shaves off the risk of conflicts by strengthening bilateral cooperation, increasing trade, reducing transit time and lowering logistic expenses, opening up new vistas of socio-economic development.

The operationalizing of the Gwadar port is providing a relief to Afghanistan by swiftly dispatching more than 10,000 food containers, stranded at Karachi ports over lockdowns and closure of the western border. With participation in BRI, Kabul would be able to create extinct jobs, channelize the ebullient youth energies in productive activities and improve its grim economic outlook.

As the whole world embraces the BRI and it opens gates of the landlocked Central Asia, Beijing-conceived wider connectivity program is becoming a global asset.

So, India needs to stop seeing China-Pakistan joint efforts to restore peace and stability in Afghanistan with conventional imprudence and should support any initiative that could pull back the grief-stricken state from pits of despair while returning to the process of dialogue to settle all the disputes.

*This is one of my opinion pieces that first appeared at "China Global Television Network (CGTN)":

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-23/India-should-clearly-support-the-Afghan-peace-process-Tbt1WFBNzq/index.html