Amid a flurry of activity between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Pakistan looked the growing rapprochement positively for this close affinity would make the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) a preferred conduit for their bilateral trade over reduced transportation cost, bringing two million jobs and billions in revenues to the cash-starved country through the Gwadar port.
Earlier this year, Pakistan's role between Beijing and the GCC was described as facilitative when it for the first time invited the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to attend the Organization of Islamic Conference, the second largest multilateral institution after the United Nations, with 57 member states. It was also seen as “a reminder of the high value" the Muslim-majority states placed on commercial relations with CHina.
Both China and Saudi Arabia have expressed interest and are keen to set up oil refineries in Balochistan's Hub and Gwadar yet red tape, excessive regulations, unfavorable policies and extensive documentation procedures continue to pose threats to Pakistan’s development. Absence of a strong federal government will likely put these and other investments at bay.
While Pakistan remains jolted by political and economic crises, China and the GCC are strengthening their all-round relationship. The largest and high-level diplomatic dialogue between Beijing and the Arab world drew praise from the bloc; Adoption of a joint statement including signing of 34 agreements (9+25) and memoranda of understanding denoted a new regional formation.
In the backdrop of the complex global landscape, leaders emphasized strengthening strategic partnership, concluding a free trade agreement (FTA) and advancing toward holding the Meeting of Ministers of Economy and Trade 6+1 between six GCC states and China. The consensus will accelerate negotiations on the FTA, helping the GCC build logistics and shipping hubs in the neighboring countries and attract more capital and technology.
Even for the countries in Middle East and North Africa region: from Algeria, Egypt, Djibouti, Iraq, Libya, Mauritania and Morocco to Sudan, Palestine, the Comoros, Tunisia and Yemen – the summit was a dawn of a multipolar world, a qualitative shift, a new starting point for economic cooperation, a new path in history, a platform of common concerns, a new era in existing strategic partnership, an opportunity to add a new brick to the relationship, a unified vision for sustainable development and an effort of political and economic integration.
As the GCC viewed China as an “essential” partner and showed keenness to jointly address the global economic challenges including food and energy security, integration in future projects through investment in innovation, technology and energy and collaboration in regional security and stability will diversify regional economies and deliver benefits to the people.
China’s rapid economic growth and technological development has transformed the country into one of the leading global powers. The bloc commended the versatility in the strategic cooperation in trade, investment, energy, education, scientific research, environment and health and sought to exchange experiences and expand partnerships with Beijing in the light of ambitious GCC development plans.
All the resource-rich GCC countries – Bahrain (Economic Vision 2030), Kuwait (Vision 2035), Oman (Vision 2040), Qatar (National Vision 2030), Saudi Arabia (Vision 2030) and the UAE (We the UAE 2031) – have announced their respective long-term visions to cut reliance on hydrocarbons in an effort to diversify their economies.
Given the GCC goals such as development of the port infrastructure and a strong high-tech sector for national economic diversification are also the key components of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Chinese infrastructural and technological chef-d'oeuvre offers promising opportunities for regional development.
Beijing and the GCC enjoy a close, historic trade relationship. The Economist Intelligence Unit in 2011 predicted Beijing to be the GCC's top trading partner in 2020. Over the last 10 years, bilateral trade has exceeded $300 billion, the balance of mutual direct investment amounts to $27 billion and more than 200 projects are being implemented within the framework of the BRI.
Twenty-one regional states have joined the BRI including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), touted as the top destinations of Chinese construction projects by volume. Riyadh has agreed to synergize its vision with the BRI; a collaboration between the GCC economic plans and the BRI will further boost the Gulf significance and evolution as a “modern Arab region.”
The US human rights intervention and the western characterization of other governance systems as “autocratic” is one of the major concerns of China and the GCC. Beijing avoids intervening in regional conflicts and calls for resolving differences through dialogue and peace talks. The middle position allows China and the GCC to bolster and expand strategic cooperation and provide diplomatic support to each other's national sovereignty.
A reaffirmation to support mutual core interests, territorial integrity and defend the principle of non-interference in internal affairs was explicitly reflected in the Riyadh Declaration. It marked the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between China and Saudi Arabia as well as a pledge to strengthen strategic partnership with the other GCC countries. The trend is gaining traction across the Middle East as some 12 Arab countries have so far entered into such a partnership with China.
Expansion of the BRICS – the bloc of the world’s largest emerging economies – is another realm where goals of China and the GCC are consistent. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other regional states have shown interest to join the grouping. The BRICS enlargement in the years to come could bring economic and political benefits to the region as well as contribute to the formation of equitable relations based on mutual interests.
In an era of engagement and interdependence, America is pursuing a policy of decoupling and isolation, threatening to make other states “pariah.” The US has also been exploiting the regional flashpoints to its advantage. By seeking economic and industrial integration between China and the Gulf, committing unwavering support for regional security and denouncing the malicious campaign against Qatar, Beijing has captured the GCC attention.
Upset by the failure of its pivot to Asia, the US has been pressuring Gulf countries to curb their relations with China. As Beijing and the GCC pull out all the stops to broaden cooperation through strategic partnership and develop congruence on key issues, America is mindful of the growing Chinese influence in the Middle East and strategic accords with the GCC.
But it's too late to block the new regional alignments for the infrastructure development and technological advancement is a new marvel of the GCC that underpins its economic diversification, national security and strategic interests and will potentially lift the grouping’s international importance, expanding its influence in global institutions and decision-making.
Unfortunately, Pakistan, like in Afghanistan, is relying largely on playing the role of a facilitator simply because the South Asian state has nothing to offer in business terms. Foreign remittances, a cornerstone of the sharp-plunging foreign exchange reserves, are on the decline as virtually all political parties wax lyrical about economic successes in their respective ruling eras.
There is an absolute, glaring and sheer divergence between the thought and approach of the government and public. From the perspective of almost every political and national representative, Pakistan has got an enormous potential and is strategically well-placed. From the point of view of the professionals including engineers and technology experts, the country is losing its charm over inflation, economic and political instability and dearth of employment.
Nobody seems to be affronted by the heart-wrenching scenes of human capital flight and talent outflow, which may increasingly obfuscate Pakistan's dystopian future. The unskilled labor, mismatched with the GCC visions, puts economic security further in peril. Meanwhile, India and the Gulf states are bridging differences on the long-inert FTA including food and energy security and technology transfers.
More worryingly, the successive national leaders in Pakistan remain oblivious to the exacting challenges in the offing and are ecstatic triumphing a consolation win through sporadic debt relief or getting a pat from the US without making effective measures and efforts to stimulate the economy, let alone modernize it. This is an alarming sign for the country's national security that ranks economic security as a top priority.
*My opinion piece (unedited), first appeared in "The Express Tribune."