By: Azhar Azam
Returning home after ending her three-day trip to China, President Corazon Aquino in April 1988 said Beijing and Manila had agreed to “shelve” territorial disputes and spotlight ratcheting up trade from $293 million to $450 million by the end of the year and to $600-$800 million over the next five years, stressing peace and harmony were "essential" for economic development.
The consensus to “set aside differences” and pursue people's prosperity in the coming decades would become a cardinal principle of deep, multifaceted China-Philippine economic relationship and pushd bilateral trade to more than $38 billion in 2021, benefiting the people and businesses in both countries.
Right through his first international visit in 2023, what he called a “very important trip” and wanted his nation to wish him good luck, President Ferdinand Marcos in China continued the same wisdom. While he didn't mention the territorial disagreements over the West Philippine Sea (or the South China Sea), rather discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping to prevent "any possible mistakes" leading to unintended consequences, his focus remained on strengthening economic partnership.
In recent months, Marcos has struck a soft tone toward China. After meeting with Xi last November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum, Marcos described his interaction as “very pleasant.” Admiring “tremendous growth” in bilateral exchanges and cooperation in agriculture, infrastructure, energy and people-to-people exchanges, he sought to enhance the economic and development collaboration. On the South China Sea, two leaders agreed maritime disputes didn't "define the totality" of the relations.
The talks followed the Filipino president’s urge to his fellow countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to “ensure that the South China Sea remains a sea of peace, a sea of security and stability and of prosperity,” underscoring peaceful negotiations is an overriding factor of Marcos' approach.
During recent exchanges, two countries signed 14 bilateral agreements and MOUs on agriculture and fisheries, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), digital and information communications technology, durian exports to China, tourism, infrastructure, economic and technical cooperation and establishment of a communication mechanism on maritime issues as well as built consensus to promote cooperation on oil and gas exploration in non-disputed areas and solar and wind energy.
Marcos is inching toward achieving his objectives as before departing to Beijing, he hoped to "return home" after negotiating agreements on durian exports, bridge construction and digital cooperation and renewing Philippine’s commitment to BRI to “benefit (his) countrymen.” That is why, a high-level diplomatic delegation including former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo anda large group of businessmen accompanied him to solidify the relationship and add another “chapter” to the comprehensive strategic partnership.
Both countries assert maritime claims in the South China Sea yet by managing differences and sustaining engagements in the areas of agriculture, education, economy, investment, trade and cultural exchanges – Beijing and Manila can discover new vistas for mutual growth, transform their ties into one of the strongest in the world make the coming times “years of opportunity.”
Many Filipinos are still grappling with economic aftershocks of the pandemic. Food and energy inflation is compounding their problems, necessitating a close regional liaison to contend with the fallouts of the omicron-driven Covid-19 long tail and other infectious diseases that may or have emerged such as monkeypox, which by December had registered 80,000.
Once the Covid-19 broke out in the Philippines, China quickly expressed solidarity with the country and offered cooperation. At a time when the Western governments amassed vaccines for themselves, Beijing dispatched regular shipments of large doses overseas including the ASEAN. In Asia and the Pacific, China is by far the largest supplier of vaccines.
Beijing is the archipelago's largest trading partner and before the pandemic, was the second-largest source of tourist arrivals. Marcos is keen to see Chinese students, tourists and investors back. The implementation of a tourism deal between China and the Philippines will create more jobs and attract further investments in the country's tourism sector, said the Filipino Tourism Secretary Christina Garcia Frasco.
After meeting with Marcos, Chinese investors have pledged to invest about $23 billion in the Philippines including roughly $14 billion in renewable energy, more than $7 billion in strategic monitoring including electrical vehicles and mineral processing and some $1.7 billion in agribusiness. The Philippines also has the largest number of sister city pairs with China in the region, a link that charts the way forward for a promising future.
Given unpredictable typhoons and severe droughts have driven down the Philippines' agriculture output and Manila historically has a strong desire to partner with Beijing on construction projects, a broader China-Philippine collaboration is a compelling necessity. Manila may acquire agriculture technology from Beijing to increase its rice production and develop the country’s railroad, highway and dam infrastructure through investment under the BRI framework whose renewal agreement was also signed.
Another area of Marcos' interest is revitalizing the potential of the Philippines' exports to China. Over the last five to six years, the number of products Manila sent to Beijing has dramatically increased five-times, thanks to the China Import Export Expo. As both sides agreed to bring bilateral trade and tourist arrivals at pre-pandemic levels and even more than that, Marcos' visit marked the first step toward injecting new life in the Philippines' tourism sector and expanding exports to China by an additional $14.1 billion.
Manila’s participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) further boosts its strategic advantage for investments alongside providing more opportunities in “a most extensive free trade area.” The world’ largest free trade agreement, unlike other "pseudo" economic initiatives such the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, provides an improved market access for several Philippine products in China.
After Europeanization and Americanization in the 19th and 20th centuries, the world is being Asianized. Home to more than 50% of the global population, Asia graduated from low- to middle-income status within a generation and is predicted to account for more than 50% and 40% of the world economy and global consumption.
Showing the extent with which the global center of gravity was shifting to Asia, the McKinsey Research Institute’s research in 2019 divided Asia in four groups: China being the one that was "large enough and sufficiently distinct from other regional countries to stand in its own category" and which could act as an anchor economy and connectivity and innovation platform for its neighbors.
For countries in Asia-Pacific, it’s however important to set the guardrails for conflict prevention, keep dialogue afloat and chug along the path of regional stability and prosperity. The "Asian century" is almost there with China's rise steering the direction of this marvelous journey for at least a number of years. The Global North may bust a gut to delay but can’t cease the Global South’s imminent economic uplift. By warming up to Beijing, Marcos is seizing the opportunity to ensure the Philippines doesn't lag behind in the grand "Asian moment."