Papua New Guinea (PNG), an impoverished Pacific island nation – which witnessed the killing of more than soldiers, mostly Japanese, during Japan’s invasion of the country during the New Guinea Campaign in the Second World War – has turned into an epicentrum of great power competition between China and the US as well as the most sought-after country for the world powers over its potential to house natural resources and minerals such as liquefied natural gas, nickel and copper.
“We are baffled,” told Winnie Kiap, a former PNG diplomat to the Economist last year, “It’s like watching two elephants (China and the US) playing on a patch of grass and we are that patch.” In the Second World War “we were in a war that had nothing to do with us. This is a repetition of that kind of thinking."
The tug of war for influence in the Pacific intensified after China stunned the US and Australia by signing a surprise security deal with the Solomon Islands, raising fear of the Chinese military presence close to Canberra and Guam, the US main military base in the region. But the Solomon Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare defended the compact citing internal instability and sought all partners to “respect the (island’s) sovereign interests,” ensuring it was guided by his foreign policy of “Friends to all and Enemies to none.”
In a bid to counter China's overtures in the Pacific, America after 30 years of absence announced to reopen its embassy in Honiara and the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken signed a defense and maritime agreement PNG in an apparent attempt to deter Port Moresby and other Pacific countries from establishing security ties with Beijing.
Here the PNG Prime Minister James Marape guarded himself against criticism from former Prime Minister Peter O’Neill and opposition leader Joseph Lelangan who accused him of putting “at the epicenter of a military storm" between China and the US and stressed PNG shouldn't be "blinded by the dollar sign or be coerced into signing (detrimental) deals." But the specter of a new cold war loomed large with Prime Minister of India (a Quad member state) Narenda Modi arriving in the region at the same time and Marape felicitating him as the "leader of the Global South."
But PNG soon found itself between a rock and a hard place once its Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko said in January Port Moresby was in "early stages of negotiation" with Beijing on a potential security and policing deal and the US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma warned PNG of the "high cost" that would come with the Chinese commitment, urging PNG to turn down the compact.
PNG isn’t the only Pacific nation, China has offered assistance on policing. Beijing last year sent police experts and equipment to Vanuatu to maintain public order in the country after the signing an agreement with the Solomon Islands on “law enforcement and security matters.” Australia raised concerns about China’s policing role in the country even as Canberra too had its police deployed in the neighboring island.
Marape is keen to develop economic relations with China for other than a large economy, it is a key export market of Pacific countries' natural resources and a major source of incoming tourism. That's why, the PNG and others have to navigate a tough diplomatic line in the middle of risks of getting itself trapped in the China-US rivalry.
America's sharp retort forced Marape to open up a little about his foreign policy approach during his trip to Australia. Stating he couldn't not ignore huge commercial opportunities being offered to PNG by Beijing, the PNG prime minister said "We will not compromise our relations with China … We also believe that someone else's enemy is not my enemy." At the same, he attempted to calm the US and Australian concerns. "When I went to Beijing they steered clear of security conversations. They honored us in the economic space.”
The US has been seeing China’s engagement in the Pacific as an effort to “destabilize” the region; one wonders how would the Biden administration’s opaque deals that didn’t provide little details and budget – encompassing more than $7.1 billion for the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau under the Compacts of Free Association in exchange for basing rights for military and other activities – would bring stability to the region while intensifying strategic competition with China.
Australia in December signed security agreement with PNG to address its security needs and “support each other’s security and regional stability.” Like other deals with China and the US, details of this pact weren't published either. While Beijing’s compact invited “further regional contest,” how Canberra’s and America’s security treaties could trigger peace and harmony in the Pacific?
Another reason for the US profound interest in the Pacific is to prevent the regional states from cutting ties with Taiwan. Still, another of the Pacific island countries, Nauru, recently severed ties with Taiwan and switched its allegiance to China, leaving Taipei with a handful of allies as Tuvalu prepares to make such a diplomatic shift. Ironically, the US allies in the Pacific, providing a strategic buffer to America and allowing it to base missiles in Palau, are threatening to shift their diplomatic recognition to China for economic assistance if Washington fails to pass the proposed funding.
These security arrangements developments are rapidly culminating in militarization of the region, and shaping the Pacific into a theater of influence for international powers. The upshots of these phenomena will be highly consequential for the Pacific since they will exacerbate development and climate crises in a region that is exposed to disproportionate impacts of climate change coupled with rising sea levels, extreme weather events and coastal erosion. Hawkish US Congressmen and some Pacific nations' approach to exploit the US-China tensions is making these challenges and the regional peace situation even dire.
*My article (unedited) that first appeared in the Express Tribune