November 29, 2016

South Asia: New Global Cold War Theater



India always seems to be euphoric whenever there is US-Indian interaction either on trade, strategic partnership, military cooperation, or sharing intelligence. Now there is new US bonbon dubbed as “Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA)”.

LEMOA provides a framework that would allow both the militaries of countries to use each other’s land, air, and naval bases for logistics support, replenishment of supplies, and repair of assets including in calamities for humanitarian relief.

It is not an agreement to set-up bases either of the countries but to seek support in shape of food, oil, transportation, medical aid, billeting, lubricants, spare parts, and repair and maintenance etc. such as in case of joint military drills on deferred payments. In fact, LEMAO is not a new pact and was first mooted in earlier this 2000s.

By either means, Indian delight is beyond any sense since it is not in the least bit likely to cash in on LEMAO because India has no strategic interests in Americas. Although it might pay off United States, but only to a limited extent, after chafing relations with Pakistan over F-16 and hold up of $300 million in military reimbursements.

This rift in Pak-US relations aggravated Pakistan and malfunctioned trust between two countries greatly. United States hence banked on India in search of surrogate strategic partner in the region however India strategic location cannot serve US interests except new cold war adversary, China. Yet again, India hugely lacks the capability to threat “Giant” China across all sectors and its intrusion in Afghanistan or any kind of engagement in Middle East is verily unnatural and intolerable for the people of those countries.

United States after annoying Pakistan; had to rely on India to maintain its influence in the region especially when it has pushed Turkey back to Russia and is now short of friends globally. Indian total submission to US, only in abhor of Pakistan and China, without any shared interests is helping US cause. India is quite contended with so-called “Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI)” and “Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD)”, the nodes to strengthen Indo-US ties.

“While the strategic dimensions of the India-US relationship have seen very important positive strides in recent years, as embodied in Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parriker’s ongoing visit to the U.S., the commercial side has been a little underwhelming”, said Dhruva Jaishankar, fellow for foreign policy at Brookings Institute India.

He further added “U.S. goods exports to India have grown only 22 percent since 2008, and other trade indicators, including in services are not impressive. Indian exports have not grown in the past two years despite a much healthier economic outlook.”

Preposterously, both counties’ dailies are projecting it a landmark in US-India defense collaboration or “practical engagement and exchange” by US Defense Secretary Ashthon Carter, admitting the lack of applicability in earlier treaties. India is exceedingly charmed by US support for Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), Missile technology Control Regime (MTCR) or being declared major non-aligned NATO ally, and now Major Defense Partner (MDP) but none of these fail to realize any definite benefits so far.

Horrid over New Silk Road or OBOR (B&R Initiative) for the mammoth $140 billion, Washington does not want Beijing to take control of South China Sea and make a strong footprint in the region, denying Pentagon the access to Western Pacific and unexploited gas and oil reserves.

The OBOR proposes to configure a Pan-Eurasian connectivity potentially touching 65-nations, 4.4 billion people, around 30% of the global economy, and a total infrastructure need of around $5,000 billion ($5 trillion) besides building-up a hypermarket of nearly 10-times of the size of the US market in the next two decades. PwC notes about $250 billion in projects that have either been built already, recently started construction, or have been agreed on and signed in relation to B&R.

“The $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has the potential to unblock vast swathes of South Asia, with Gwadar, operated by China Overseas Port Holdings, slated to become a key naval hub of the New Silk Roads (Sputnik News).” Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) is yet other project in B&R initiative.

Now US “Pivot to Asia” is more perceived as a map to contain China’s growing political and economic clout in South Asia using India as its proxy in the region. India has at all times skeptic with its nuclear armed neighbors, China and Pakistan. Besides China and Pakistan; Russia and Iran, surprised by rapid Indian foreign policy rapprochement, also closely monitoring Indo-US “deals”.

India tags Pakistan for hundreds of thousands protestors holding Pakistan flags demanding freedom in Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK). Whilst, according to Indian official figures, there were only 150-militants in IoK last years and over 700,000 military troops are deployed to fight mere 150-militants!

International community has been wickedly silent on killings of tens of thousands of Kashmiries, human rights abuses and nearly 7,000 cases of sexualized and gendered violations accusing Pakistan for catastrophe. But if India requires almost 01-million forces to control a small territory, doesn’t it necessitate the substantial evidence to United Nations that who is the guilty party and destabilizing the region?

Modi in recent speeches has thanked people of Azad Kashmir, Baluchistan, and Gilgit Baltistan in Pakistan for supporting them yet again how many times the world has heard of human rights abuses, killings or rapes in these areas? Instead, Indian spies on Pakistan soil have been captured who have been involved in handling, facilitating, and financing terrorism and to shush the voices of freedom in IoK, India is diverting world’s attention toward phony issues. And Washington, purposely patronizing Indian brutalities and sabotaging peace acts to contain China, Pakistan, and Russia.

New Delhi’s impulsive alignment with the Washington immediately threatens BRICS to disintegrate, undermining the region’s stability and turning the region into a theatre of new global Cold War. Modi is invariably committed to mar China and Pakistan even if the United States doesn’t impel India to do and he is not hesitating to knock down the interests of its unprecedented ally, Russia.

In case BRICS shatters, Russia will be forced to make a choice out of China and India. Though Moscow certainly would avoid to reaching such a stage but Indian capitulation with US might leave it with no alternative option.

“If India irrevocably commits itself to pro-US anti-China course then sooner or later India will inevitable come under pressure from Washington to loosen its ties with Moscow. This would most probably happen in the context of an artificially crisis, making it appear that the decision was Moscow’s rather than New Delhi’s or Washington”. (The Duran)

Eventually this leads to new strategic formations in the world; US and India on side and China, Pakistan, Russia, and Middle East on the other. By all reasons, Indian government and media is dancing on the tunes of the Washington to emasculate none but only itself and the region and people all over the places are getting amused on the their ostensible elation.