In March 2001, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) looked to achieve rare harmony after Doha settled thorny border disputes with Riyadh and Manama. The agreement culminated in Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal saying all territorial conflicts within the bloc are resolved and his jazzed up Qatari counterpart Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani feeling proud of Qatar’s ties with Saudi Arabia.
But the sweat-pouring effort merely dressed, not healed, the deep-wounded relationship and couldn’t hold out much longer as once the Kingdom a year later refused to host American troops at Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB) for second invasion of Iraq and allow raids on Afghanistan – Qatar offered US shift its Gulf headquarters to Al-Udeid Air Base in exchange for protection from any potential military intervention by Saudi Arabia and allies.
Al-Jazeera broadcast, featuring Saudi opposition cleric Mohsen Al-Awaji who criticized Crown Prince Abdullah’s peace initiative and accused him for ditching the Palestinian cause, reopened regional rifts and drove Riyadh call back its ambassador from Doha. In 2014 and then 2017, Riyadh along other Arab nations cut ties with Doha over alleged Qatari intervention and destabilizing attempts their internal affairs and continued support for Islamist groups.
Iran-linked terrorist attacks on two major Saudi oil installations in September 2019 greatly helped the US to regain control and ramp up its military strength at PSAB in a bid counter Iranian hostilities in the region. It was the moment Donald Trump wanted a joint GCC front against Tehran that had quietly expanded its influence in Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sana’a.
Change of US nerve center to Qatar and activation of 378th Air Expeditionary Wing on PSAB – which almost two decades earlier served as the primary location for US air power in the Middle East – was a fine example how the US exploited regional tensions and theatrically shaped regional environment to retain an overwhelming clout on grouping.
The activation claimed to defend Saudi Arabia from malign regional actors and protect US forces and interests. But even a neophyte can identify the activation was tactically designed and masterly implemented to ensure that the key air bases are under American control including PSAB, where reinforcements were more convenient in case of a war with Tehran.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are ideological rivals forever and Riyadh is gravely worried about its national security from Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen that shares a long and porous border with the Kingdom. However, presence of foreign troops in the home of Islam’s holiest sites is also a major concern for the Kingdom – where existence of American forces is seen as a historical as betrayal, proof of country’s subservience to Washington and was part of the reason given by Osama bin Laden for September 11 terrorist attacks on the US, resulting in American pullout from Saudi Arabia in 2003.
With redeployment of the US troops – “a potent symbol of Washington’s role in the region” – the monarchy, threatened by armed struggle in Yemen, had no choice except tolerate the US military on its soil. The recapture of PSAB now provides US a strategic depth as analysts think it would aid relocation of American air assets from more vulnerable locations like Al Udeid and Al Dhafra in Qatar and the UAE respectively to Saudi base.
Clearly, Donald Trump was looking for a predominant control on both Qatar and Saudi Arabia, hoping to reimburse him an election win through consistently promoting Iran as an aggressive and hostile adversary to the US and Arab world. On the flip side, Americans rejected his offensive approach and voted in droves to oust him from the White House.
Trump desperately tried to pose himself a peace champion, bragging about his mediation for establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and some of the Mideast countries. As other Arab states seek certain financial, political, military rewards to give up their historical position on Palestine – for instance UAE will acquire its long-wished American weaponry; Sudan is removed from US terrorist list and Morocco can extend its claims on disputed Western Sahara – the contagion-like embrace of Israel will contribute to peace only if the coming Biden administration remains committed to these promises.
While the Riyadh-led GCC coalition ends the blockade of another group member Doha and all six states have signed the final communiqué and the AlUla Declaration at 41st GCC summit in Saudi Arabia – the US, previously sought schisms within the Council, is now making efforts to unite the GCC nations and fix the cracks in the “strong wall of opposition” against Iran.
The settlement is a right dose to vivify the deteriorating peace environment in the Middle East. Yet since it is an attempt to box Iran into the corner, the US-led GCC rapprochement could end up in an impasse given Doha maintains close relationship with Tehran against which Riyadh entreats for unity. In this backdrop, any anti-Iran alliance would push Persian Gulf toward further volatility and make the situation from bad to worse.
Qatar’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Mohammad bin Abdulrahman Al Thani last month in Russia called for a dialogue between Iran and other Persian Gulf countries and said Doha would welcome any initiative that could bring stability in the region. Meanwhile, the “Summit of Sultan Qaboos and Sheikh Sabah” declaration made no mention of Iran, that described the GCC states were at odds when it came to the Iranian threat.
Even though Iran has assured it is neither an enemy nor a threat to the Arab countries, Tehran’s set technique – unremitting involvement in Yemen, sustained influence in Lebanon and Syria and assiduous presence in Iraq – is unfurling worries among neighboring countries about its expansionist approach and narrowing the interminable gap between Arab realms and Israel.
At a time when the pandemic-hit economic crisis is expected to wipe off 6% from GCC economies and it won’t get back to 2019 levels by 2023, the bloc should take bold steps and extend the recent reconciliation process to the Persian Gulf. Iran, on the other hand, must scale back its support for Yemeni Houthis to prevent an upswing in Saudi exasperation.
In contemporary history, the western countries quickly realized the importance of religious tolerance, mutual coexistence and respect for each other’s sovereignty after the Second World War, helping them to achieve peace and rebuild the economy from scratch. The Mideast countries could learn this art from the West and should stop using lousy tricks, aimed at obliterating rival ideologies for a lusty pursuit of regional domination, which will bring wanton destruction to the region and dispatch them all to the Paleolithic period.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "News24":