In a fresh coup to US global integrity, role and reliability – a new study by European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) found after Trump’s chaotic and importunate four-year term, Europeans were not willing to support Washington in potential international disputes and just 10% saw America as a “reliable” security partner in the event of a crisis.
A survey of 15,000 people across 11 European countries including France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Spain and others further discovered more than 60% Europeans thought America’s political system was “broken” and it is unlikely the US would regain its world leadership or Joe Biden will be able to halt his country’s decline on the world stage.
Roughly half of the respondents felt their governments should remain neutral in any conflict between China and the US whereas a staggering number of people up to 79% in France, Italy, Portugal and Spain said China will unseat America to become the world's leading superpower within the next decade.
The poll findings indicate the Europeans are wary of the US cavalier and high-handed attitude toward them and foresee its role shrinking in global politics. It also describes a strong displeasure on the US strategy toward China, forcing the regional states to decouple from and contain China in fear of losing its influence.
Shockingly for the US, the publics looked deeply unattractive and unconcerned with the Washington-pushed perspective of a new cold war with China. The dramatic shift in Europeans’ threat perception showed they were quickly understanding American mentality and responding to the adversarial nature of its warlike mindset.
Unlike the cold war era when Berlin felt threatened by invasion and wedded to the Atlantic alliance, study noted the manufacturing heavyweight seems to be caught up with French notion for European defense integration. Germany’s belief to defend itself, along with half of Germans don’t see American military power as an existential guarantee for them, the US bubble threat of foreign military intervention has been blasted.
People in Europe would now seek the European leaders to adopt an independent China policy over scathing differences with the US. By implying Europe’s transatlantic policy in the coming years should be driven by growing economic ties with China, they have called upon the governments to weigh up their economic interests in dealing with the emerging global leader.
The results echoed last year’s ECFR survey outcomes when most of the European Union (EU) citizens said they can no longer rely on the US security guarantee and the bloc should remain neutral in conflicts between the US and China or Russia, wanting coalition chart its own course and establish itself as a cohesive geopolitical actor.
Washington has been mounting pressure on Europe to form a united front against Beijing. But in a big surprise, the latest poll showed the Europeans were not keen in getting back to a bipolar world, in which the West would face off against China and its allies as it once did against the Soviet Union.
Most EU nations considered Germany as a more important country to have a good relationship with than the US and only 23% said the country should take the US side against Russia. Berlin economic significance, cooperation in building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Moscow, Russians’ positive views about Europe and vice versa – together with Germany’s bilateral trade of 206 billion euros in 2019 with China, making latter the “most important trading partner” for fourth consecutive year and China-EU recent investment deal – could set the tone for a lot louder China-Russia-EU relations in the next few years.
In December 2019, the US Senate approved sanctions on companies and governments working on the North Stream 2 pipeline for supplying Russian gas to Germany. The outright breach of Germany sovereignty pressed German Foreign Minister Heiko Mass to warn America not to meddle in European energy policy and evade “the move to influence autonomous decisions that are made in Europe.”
The work on the $11 billion project Germany last week wanted to resume immediately, at the moment, faces suspension or even cancellation as the new US embargos bite the Russian pipe-laying ship Fortuna and its owner. While Berlin took the curbs with “regret,” Washington’s ulterior motive to sell American liquid natural gas and prevent Moscow from wearing off the US domination across European peninsula can impair Biden’s desire to ameliorate transatlantic relationship and may expose deeper cracks in alliance.
It is still unclear how Biden, who opposed the project as American Vice President, would tackle German gripes. But if the new US President keeps Trump’s policy afloat, it would fuel more resentments in Europe particularly Germany that is looking to phase out the use of coal and nuclear energy for low-cost Russian gas through Baltic Sea to fight climate change, coincidentally another of Biden’s key promises.
Under Trump, the White House has eroded all global mellifluous efforts to jointly rout the virus and mitigate its spillover effects on the economy. Biden has committed to restore the US international leadership role, credibility and influence by strengthening alliances with the European and other partners and reversing the Trumpian unilateralism.
But unless the Biden administration steps back from shaping Europe’s economic and trade policies about China and Russia for the US individualistic interests and rolls out an inclusive vision of cooperation and globalization to embrace the whole world, not just Europe or US allies – the revival of America as a global leader and credible partner would be strewn with pitfalls.
*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "News24":