Breaking: Russia Strong Support to CPEC, Pakistan Spills India

By: Azhar Azam

Russia resumes to flummoxing India with its steadily growing relations with Pakistan while giving an aloof response to India to isolating Pakistan. Its “tenuous” public stance on supporting CPEC eventually explodes more than what it may be termed as “stronger”.

After continuous denial of any interest in China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Russia finally not only furnished strong support to the magical mega project but went a step ahead showing the intent to link its Eurasian Economic Union with the China’s Silk Road.

In an interview with Radio Pakistan, Russian envoy to Pakistan Mr. Alexey Y. Dedov said “Russia strongly supports China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project as it is crucial for Pakistan’s economy and regional connectivity”.

“CPEC is component of China’s Silk Road and his country was also working on a similar Eurasian Economic Union and China and Russia are holding discussions to merge the two projects.”

The Russian envoy was keen to quickly realize the North-South gas pipeline, emphasizing the close cooperation between the two countries in different areas and the need to enhance the bilateral trade. In defense cooperation, both countries have already signed deal to supply Pakistan the Hi-35 gunship helicopters.

Dedov categorically rejected all world reports that accuse Russia to support Afghan Taliban in an effort to fight Daesh or IS, describing these news “fantasies”. His statement comes at a time when Pakistan, China, and Russia are holding the third Trilateral Working Group’s meeting on Afghanistan in Moscow on December 27. The earlier two meetings were held in Beijing and Islamabad.

This October at BRICS summit in Goa, Russia refused to favor India to including Pakistan as a terror-sponsoring country in the joint declaration. Furthermore, Russia also declined Indian plea to at least suspend, if not cancel, the military drills “Friendship-2016” with Pakistan over Uri attack.

Besides these strategic cooperation, Russia with the help of China, provided a membership of Shanghai Cooperation organization (SCO). In November this year, Russia also earnestly participated in defense and military exhibition “IDEAS 2016 – Arms for Peace” held in Pakistan; Rosoboronexport, Russian sole state owned arms manufacturing made a debut as well.

An Indian strategic expert analyzes these developments as Moscow is not seeing India as a reliable friend or Partner. Indeed, it is cooperating & seeking cooperation from Indian’s regional adversaries – including by supporting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Afghan Taliban – “Russia is challenging India’s core interests”.

Asked about Pakistan-Russia joint military exercises in recent Heart of Asia, Russian presidential envoy to Pakistan Zamir Kabulov said “Moscow didn’t complain about India’s close cooperation with the US and so India also should not complain about much cooperation between Pakistan and Russia”.

He further said that ISIS in the subcontinent cannot be defeated without cooperation from Islamabad. Talking about Indian concerns, he said that we understand Indian concerns on western borders but we cannot combat terrorism efficiently and productively and eliminate it without Pakistan cooperation so we need their cooperation and they should also realize their importance and responsibility.

Ex-ambassador to Afghanistan described the Taliban as a “predominantly a national military-political movement”. “It is local, Afghanistan-based. They believe that they should have their perspective, fair share in the government of Afghanistan…They should talk and deal in their local context.”

Pakistan is fervently redeeming the opportunity to strengthen ties with Russia after deteriorated relations with the Unites States over suspension of F-16, hitches in release of coalition support fund, and once again leaving Pakistan in tatters by the US following its partial withdrawal from Afghanistan.

A piece published in Value Walk “China, Russia, Pakistan Superpower Triangle Becoming Reality” underscores “Both Russia and China have stepped up their diplomatic efforts to prevent New Delhi from isolating Pakistan and making it a pariah state”. “China has repeatedly pledged to help Pakistan in case of any foreign aggression.”

“India also loses in terms of its geopolitical from other nations. While India seems to have the support from Japan, it can’t fully rely on the US. It remains a mystery to what extent Donald Trump will be willing to help India in case of any military confrontation. In fact, it’s unclear if India even is going to get any kind of support from Trump at all. So Pakistan and its new superpower friends – Russia and China – appear to be on the winning side.”

South Asia: New Global Cold War Theater

By: Azhar Azam

India always seems to be euphoric whenever there is US-Indian interaction either on trade, strategic partnership, military cooperation, or sharing intelligence. Now there is new US bonbon dubbed as “Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA)”.

LEMOA provides a framework that would allow both the militaries of countries to use each other’s land, air, and naval bases for logistics support, replenishment of supplies, and repair of assets including in calamities for humanitarian relief.

It is not an agreement to set-up bases either of the countries but to seek support in shape of food, oil, transportation, medical aid, billeting, lubricants, spare parts, and repair and maintenance etc. such as in case of joint military drills on deferred payments. In fact, LEMAO is not a new pact and was first mooted in earlier this 2000s.

By either means, Indian delight is beyond any sense since it is not in the least bit likely to cash in on LEMAO because India has no strategic interests in Americas. Although it might pay off United States, but only to a limited extent, after chafing relations with Pakistan over F-16 and hold up of $300 million in military reimbursements.

This rift in Pak-US relations aggravated Pakistan and malfunctioned trust between two countries greatly. United States hence banked on India in search of surrogate strategic partner in the region however India strategic location cannot serve US interests except new cold war adversary, China. Yet again, India hugely lacks the capability to threat “Giant” China across all sectors and its intrusion in Afghanistan or any kind of engagement in Middle East is verily unnatural and intolerable for the people of those countries.

United States after annoying Pakistan; had to rely on India to maintain its influence in the region especially when it has pushed Turkey back to Russia and is now short of friends globally. Indian total submission to US, only in abhor of Pakistan and China, without any shared interests is helping US cause. India is quite contended with so-called “Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI)” and “Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD)”, the nodes to strengthen Indo-US ties.

“While the strategic dimensions of the India-US relationship have seen very important positive strides in recent years, as embodied in Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parriker’s ongoing visit to the U.S., the commercial side has been a little underwhelming”, said Dhruva Jaishankar, fellow for foreign policy at Brookings Institute India.

He further added “U.S. goods exports to India have grown only 22 percent since 2008, and other trade indicators, including in services are not impressive. Indian exports have not grown in the past two years despite a much healthier economic outlook.”

Preposterously, both counties’ dailies are projecting it a landmark in US-India defense collaboration or “practical engagement and exchange” by US Defense Secretary Ashthon Carter, admitting the lack of applicability in earlier treaties. India is exceedingly charmed by US support for Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), Missile technology Control Regime (MTCR) or being declared major non-aligned NATO ally, and now Major Defense Partner (MDP) but none of these fail to realize any definite benefits so far.

Horrid over New Silk Road or OBOR (B&R Initiative) for the mammoth $140 billion, Washington does not want Beijing to take control of South China Sea and make a strong footprint in the region, denying Pentagon the access to Western Pacific and unexploited gas and oil reserves.

The OBOR proposes to configure a Pan-Eurasian connectivity potentially touching 65-nations, 4.4 billion people, around 30% of the global economy, and a total infrastructure need of around $5,000 billion ($5 trillion) besides building-up a hypermarket of nearly 10-times of the size of the US market in the next two decades. PwC notes about $250 billion in projects that have either been built already, recently started construction, or have been agreed on and signed in relation to B&R.

“The $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has the potential to unblock vast swathes of South Asia, with Gwadar, operated by China Overseas Port Holdings, slated to become a key naval hub of the New Silk Roads (Sputnik News).” Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) is yet other project in B&R initiative.

Now US “Pivot to Asia” is more perceived as a map to contain China’s growing political and economic clout in South Asia using India as its proxy in the region. India has at all times skeptic with its nuclear armed neighbors, China and Pakistan. Besides China and Pakistan; Russia and Iran, surprised by rapid Indian foreign policy rapprochement, also closely monitoring Indo-US “deals”.

India tags Pakistan for hundreds of thousands protestors holding Pakistan flags demanding freedom in Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK). Whilst, according to Indian official figures, there were only 150-militants in IoK last years and over 700,000 military troops are deployed to fight mere 150-militants!

International community has been wickedly silent on killings of tens of thousands of Kashmiries, human rights abuses and nearly 7,000 cases of sexualized and gendered violations accusing Pakistan for catastrophe. But if India requires almost 01-million forces to control a small territory, doesn’t it necessitate the substantial evidence to United Nations that who is the guilty party and destabilizing the region?

Modi in recent speeches has thanked people of Azad Kashmir, Baluchistan, and Gilgit Baltistan in Pakistan for supporting them yet again how many times the world has heard of human rights abuses, killings or rapes in these areas? Instead, Indian spies on Pakistan soil have been captured who have been involved in handling, facilitating, and financing terrorism and to shush the voices of freedom in IoK, India is diverting world’s attention toward phony issues. And Washington, purposely patronizing Indian brutalities and sabotaging peace acts to contain China, Pakistan, and Russia.

New Delhi’s impulsive alignment with the Washington immediately threatens BRICS to disintegrate, undermining the region’s stability and turning the region into a theatre of new global Cold War. Modi is invariably committed to mar China and Pakistan even if the United States doesn’t impel India to do and he is not hesitating to knock down the interests of its unprecedented ally, Russia.

In case BRICS shatters, Russia will be forced to make a choice out of China and India. Though Moscow certainly would avoid to reaching such a stage but Indian capitulation with US might leave it with no alternative option.

“If India irrevocably commits itself to pro-US anti-China course then sooner or later India will inevitable come under pressure from Washington to loosen its ties with Moscow. This would most probably happen in the context of an artificially crisis, making it appear that the decision was Moscow’s rather than New Delhi’s or Washington”. (The Duran)

Eventually this leads to new strategic formations in the world; US and India on side and China, Pakistan, Russia, and Middle East on the other. By all reasons, Indian government and media is dancing on the tunes of the Washington to emasculate none but only itself and the region and people all over the places are getting amused on the their ostensible elation.

IDEAS 2016-Arms for Peace: Pakistan Signs Various MOUs

By: Azhar Azam

Four day defense event IDEAS 2016 concludes here on 25-November-2016 in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 14-MOUs said to have been signed between Pakistan and various countries for purchase of a variety of defense equipment and technology.

Started in 2000, IDEAS 2016 was 9th in the series exhibition, held biennially in Pakistan and has pulled large number of defense companies and delegates from around the world. Some 418-exhibitors and 90-delegations from 43-countries participated in IDEAS 2016 mainly headed by defense ministers, secretaries, and defense chiefs.

Rosoboronexport also made a a debut in IDEAS 2016-Pakistan. It is a part of Rostech and is the sole Russian state intermediary agency responsible for import/export of full range of defense and dual-use end products, technologies, and services. Furthermore, it owns the exclusive rights to supply the world market with the full range of arms and military equipment manufactured by Russian defense industrial complex and accounts for more than 85% of Russian arms exports. Rosoboronexport operates in over 70 countries and its exports are expected to exceed $15billion this year.

Pakistan showcased its indigenously built Main Battle Tank Al-Khalid, Fighter Aircraft JF-17 Thunder, Jet Trainer Aircraft K-8, Super Mushshak, Fast Attack Craft Missile boats, Unmanned Armed Vehicles (UAVs), Armored Personal Carriers, premium grade military hardware, and related technology in IDEAS 2016.

"We received very good response from Turkey, China, North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Far East. 14-MOUs were signed with different perspective with International partners", said Defense Production Secretary.

Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) signed MOU with Turkey to supply 52-Super Mushshak MFI-395 Basic Trainer aircrafts over a period of next three years.The deal marks PAC's largest export order in terms of volume. PAC has already signed agreements with Qatar and Nigeria to supply 18 of this aircraft, manufactured by Pakistan.

Chairman PAC Air Marshal Arshad Malik said "The country is all set to deliver four of ten Super Mushshaks to Qatar by November 25". Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Oman, and some other countries has also acquired Super Mushshak from Pakistan, Quwa, a Defense and News & Analyst Group said.

On the sidelines of IDEAS 2016, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and French ECA Group also signed a MOU to provide technical assistance to Pakistan Air Force for electronic system of JF-17 Thunder Combat Jets. Soon, Pakistan is also expected to manufacture next-generation JF-17 Thunder fighter jets to strengthen air force fleet from currently 70 to 250.

Meanwhile Pakistan Navy is considering China and Turkey for buying super-fast ships to form a special squadron for the security of Gwadar Port, Tribune reported. Two warships have already been deployed at Gwadar Seaport; a squadron may include 4-6 warships. "China will also deploy its naval ships in coordination with Pakistan Navy to safeguard the port and trade under the CPEC."

"Pakistan has kicked-off the process of establishing the largest shipyard of the region in Gwadar. A similar ship-building project is being deliberated at the Port Qasim in Karachi."

Pakistan has also signed MOU with Ukraine where Ukraine will provide 200-engines to upgrade Pak-manufactured Al-Khalid II Tanks. Ukraine will also transfer technology of these equipment as the minister of defense signed agreement with his counterpart.

Furthermore, Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) has also signed MOUS with Czechoslovak Group, from the Czech Republic and Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa S.A. (PGZ), from Poland for supply of small arms. A total of 14-MOUs are expected to sign in IDEAS 2016-Karachi-Pakistan.

IDEAS 2016 showcased an interesting new inflatable tanks added to the arsenal, an artificial weapon used to confuse offensive enemy and giving about an hour to defending forces to retreat. Known as "inflatable military decoys", it an old weapon however still being used by US and Russian armed forces, and now Pakistan.

The exhibition displayed conventional, most-sophisticated several thousand defense equipment and the technology of tomorrow. This interactive forum also facilitated meetings and networking sessions with various high profile delegates, policy makers, diplomats, and defense procurement experts, all in one place.

Hamza Multi-Role Combat Vehicle

Al-Khalid Tank - APP

Super Mushshak - APP

Mortar Shells - Reuters

Drone Uqab - AP

JF-17 Thunder Multi-Role Combat Aircraft

Images - IDEAS 2016

JF-17 Thunder Multi-Role Combat Aircraft

Images - IDEAS 2016

Al-Zarrar Tank - PPI

Super Mushshal Trainer Aircraft

Images - IDEAS 2016

Images - IDEAS 2016

Belt and Road: How Mega Project of Six Magical Corridors Spurs Economic Growth

By: Azhar Azam

Boonyong, a Thai rice exporter, looks forward to lowering transport costs when a 845-km rail network connecting China and Thailand gets completed. Currently, his rice products are delivered by road and sea, which takes about three and five days, respectively.

“It will only take us around 18 hours to send rice to China by train, with the freight cost lowered to about one-third of that of road or sea transport,” said Boonyong, a Thai businessman who sells rice to China at an annual profit of over 50 million yuan ($7.68 million).

B&R THEME
Through B&R, China wants to synchronize nearly 4.4 billion people, over 60-countries, take control of 30% of the global economy and a total of $2.1 trillion of gross production focusing infrastructure, trade, policy, finance, and people.

WHAT IS ONE BELT, ONE ROAD (OBOR) OR BELT AND ROAD (B&R)
In 2013, China’s President Xi Jinping announced Silk Route Economic Belt (SREB) and the 21st century Maritime Silk Route (MSR) during his visits to various states. The composition of these two initiatives was named Belt and Road or “一带一路” or “Yídàiyílù” in Chinese.

Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) is planned to link China with Europe through central and western Asia; and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route (MSR) is intended to connect southern China with South East Asia and Africa by sea.

SIX (6) ECONOMIC CORRIDORS
China is mulling six economic corridors to give a strong impetus to integrated economic growth between Eurasia and Africa:

Corridors are set to run through China-Mongolia-Russia, New Eurasian Land Bridge, China-Central and West Asia, China-Indo-China Peninsula, China-Pakistan, and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, said vice premier Zhang Gaoli.

CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the first of six corridors to start construction. This “fate changer” project is deriving a huge $51 billion investment in infrastructure, energy, and railway along with creating thousands of job and investment opportunities.

It is about 20% of Pakistan’s GDP, divulges the scale and scope of the project. The whole project could add up to about 4.5% to Pakistan’s GDP, enlarging an overall GDP growth of 9% of the country.

The construction of CPEC is being progressed on fast track basis and just about half of the project has already completed. Keeping in the significance of CPEC for both China and Pakistan, special troops have been deployed for its security, overseen by Pakistan armed forces.

WHY GWADAR PORT IS SO VITAL
Gwadar Port, core of the CPEC, would help China to transport oil of $200 million/day ($73 billion/annum) from over 100-days to just about 30-days, besides other trade and strategic advantages. Gwadar, 18m, is the deepest port (9m; nearly double of Jebel Ali) in the world and could facilitate an 120-births or ships against Jebel Ali 67-births.

We could imagine that if Jebel Ali Port with 9m depth and 67-births can make GCC grow to such extent, how greatly Gwadar Port with 18m and 120-birth can lead to Pakistan growth.

PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES
70-countries have actively participated in scheme and 30-countries have already signed cooperative agreements with China to build B&R jointly. There are around 900 deals in negotiation valued at $890 billion, including a rail link between Beijing and Duisburg, a transport hub in Germany.

PROJECT FINANCING
China is expected to invest an estimated sum of eye-watering $900 in 60-countries included in the program to shore up road, rail, and maritime trade by creating economic corridors. Infrastructure construction in Asia would require an annual investment of around $730 billion from 2015 to 2020.

It has been financed by Silk Road $40 billion, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) $100 billion, and the incorporation of New Development Bank (formerly BRICS Development Bank) with an initial capital of $50 billion and to be increased up to $100 billion. B&R is backed by beefy China’s foreign exchange reserves valuing at about $3.2 trillion as of August 2016.

Chinese Ministry of Commerce tells that in 2015, Chinese enterprises invested nearly $15 billion in 49-countries within the framework of Belt and Road cooperation, a year-over-year increase of 18.2%.

CHINA IS ALREADY REAPING BELT AND ROAD BENEFITS
In the next five years, China’s imports are expected to exceed $10 trillion, outwards direct investment (ODI) to reach $500 billion, and Chinese outbound tourist visits will also rise to 500 million.

TOURISM TO FETCH REVENUE OF $200 BILLION
Belt and Road has a great potential to bring total revenue of $200 billion in tourism to countries engaged. In an ongoing tourism festival, a tourism official said that 150 million Chinese tourists are expected to visit Belt and Road countries in the next five years.

“Another 85 million tourists from those countries are expected to visit China, bringing revenue of up to $110 billion, he said at the Silk Road International Tourism Festival in Lanzhou, Gansu Province.” Between China and B&R countries, over 25 million tourists travel annually and the market is anticipated to expand quickly as the projects link more than 60-nations.

TACKLING INDUSTRIAL OVER-CAPACITY
China is facing acute industrial over-capacity and OBOR provides a great opportunity to block this monster dilemma. In 2014, China signed 44% of its new engineering projects with Belt and Road countries and the figure has escalated to 53% in the first 05-months of 2016.

TRADE WITH B&R COUNTRIES EXCEEDS $600 BILLION IN FIRST 08-MONTHS OF 2016
During the first eight months of 2016, China’s trade with Belt and Road countries have surpassed $600 billion, 26% of China’s total trade volume. For the same period, China has invested up to $10 billion in Belt and Road countries through AIIB and Silk Fund.

Deputy Head of Ministry of Commerce said that Chinese companies have established over 50-trade and economic cooperation zones in B&R countries, investing over $15.6 billion, earning host countries tax revenue of $900 million and creating 70,000 jobs.

YUAN INTERNATIONALIZATION
Trough B&R, China visualizes “more capital convergence and currency integration” and gradually lessening dependence on US dollar. The B&R countries will be pushed to trade in renminbi heading to yuan internationalization.

Some countries such as Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Thailand are already broadly using renminbi for trade. “By the end of 2014, offshore renminbi deposits amounted to ¥1.6 trillion and offshore renminbi bonds reached ¥350 billion – a trend supported by the belt-road initiative. Moreover, this initiative calls for establishing a renminbi-nominated Asian bond market."

Targets 6.5% GDP Growth, 25-million New Jobs, and Reducing Poverty by 70 million
In 13th Five Year Plan, President Xi Jinping targets 6.5% annual GDP growth. Close down middle-income economic trap, raise annual per capita income to $12,600, create 25 million new jobs, and reduce poverty in rural areas by 70 million through urbanization policies.

CHINA’S ECONOMY
According to China Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP grew by 6.7% on y-o-y in first three quarters of 2016, to reach $7.87 trillion.

Foreign trade declined for the same period by 1.9% to $2.61 trillion; exports dropped by 1.6% ($2.14 trillion) and imports plummeted by 2.3% (7.47 trillion yuan).

However, China continues to retain its global leading position on trade in goods with a rise in global market share from 11.2% in 2013 to 13.8% in 2015.

Foreign direct investment in (FDI) shoed a growth of 6% in 2015 and reached at $136 billion, ranked in top-3 in world, UN report says.

CHINA-AFRICA COOPERATION
Last year, in December, President Si announced at Johannesburg Summit in South Africa 10-major China-Africa cooperation plans worth of $60 billion in the next three years.

Vice-Foreign Minister Zhang Ming said at a news conference that China and Africa have signed at least 243 cooperation agreements of various kinds worth $50.7 billion since the summit.

“Among these agreements, Chinese companies’ direct investment and commercial loans to Africa surpass $46 billion, accounting for 91 percent of the total volume,” he said.

CHINA DEBT CRISIS
At the close of 2015, China reported total debt of 168.48 trillion yuan ($25.59 trillion). However, Li Yang, a Chinese expert is convinced that this debt is controllable and China would not suffer from debt crisis as the government owns enough assets to handle debt risk.

Li said that even taking the debt of local governments’ financing platform into account, the amount of total government debts at the end of 2015, reaching 56.8%, was still below the warning line of 60% set by the European Union.

In contrast, the current debt ratio of the Japanese government has surpassed 200%, and that of the US government and French government is over or around 120%.


Sources: The Market Mogul, USA China Daily, Maxxelli, Shanghai Daily, Lehman Brown, Yale Global, China State Council

Trump Slams China for Stealing US Jobs that are Already Flooding Back Home

By: Azhar Azam

Donald J. Trump, the President-elect, has been indicting India, China, Mexico, and Singapore for “greatest jobs theft” in the history of the America, proclaiming that the US companies are moving jobs to these countries avowing to bring them back.

His bleak rhetoric bashed China for ripping United States in trade and playing like a fiddle on North Korea. He further says that the US has lost 70,000 factories ever since China entered into World Trade Organization (WTO) threatening to impose 45% tariff on everything from China declaring it a currency manipulator, competing unfairly, and economic boogeyman to secure core of its economy, exports at the cost US manufacturing jobs.

Labeling Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a job-killing treaty for Americans, he intended to stop it and aimed to renegotiate North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). “They are never going to leave this country. A Trump administration will renegotiate NAFTA. If we won’t get the deal we want, we will terminate NAFTA and get a much better deal for our workers.”

United States experienced a mass trade deficit in goods of $258 billion with China during the first nine months of CY2016; imports valued at $337 billion and exports amounted to just $79 billion, according to US Census Bureau.

In 2015 and 2014 also, United States suffered trade deficits in goods of $367 billion and $345 billion with China. This goes on to corroborate that against $1 of exports, United States imports $4 worth of goods from China.

But there are many countries in the world except China which relished goods trade surplus with the United States. Although Trump has methodically influenced the voters’ conscious and trapped them in the mesh of their own sentiments about China stealing their jobs but the facts remain far-fetched.

During the period January to October, China’s export fell by 7.7% to $ 1.71 trillion on year-on-year due to global weakening demand and imports were down by 7.5% to $ 1.27 trillion; running a trade surplus of $ 441.6 billion for the first ten months of 2016.

The flip point is that China itself is becoming victim of the stolen jobs to countries like Cambodia, India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh where workers earns half or even quarter of the workers’ earnings in China; mainly due to rural-to-urban influx, higher wages, employees’ expectation of raised life style and China’s focus to independently produce quality goods.

Over these circumstances, around 24% of the US companies have already or thinking to move back manufacturing to the United States. US Reshoring Initiative tells that 100,000 manufacturing jobs have been returned to US in the last five year, 60% of which from China and if we add up plants opened by foreign investors in the US, the figure reaches to 250,000. From 2010, nearly 01-million factory jobs have been added to 11.45 million manufacturing jobs. So Trump is lamenting on an issue which is out-dated now and he is just “screaming about yesterday’s problems”.

Yes, there are still a large chain of US companies manufacturing in China such as Foxconn which produces all of Apple’s iPhones, iPads, and Macs in China but remember China is the second largest market for Apple. China manufactures Apple products for just $7 from components made in the US costing $179, sold at retail price of $500 & profits US economy, company, workers and shareholders.

“Many large auto makers such as General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. are increasingly reliant on sales to the Chinese market, and Hollywood is seeing China more and more as a profit center for its movies and entertainment.” Boeing Co. and Qualcomm Inc. are among some of others.

These and many other companies have moved manufacturing in China for reducing cost of production which has widely benefited to the United States, otherwise on the brink of disappearance. If China denies factories to West, as it is already planning to make country technology-independent, it would starkly affect the economy of the United States and Europe.

The manufacturing cost for production of goods back home will be highly unworkable for many companies, endangering millions of American jobs associated with imports from China. While China has enormous funds at its disposal, it will never in sorts of shilly-shally to develop all technological advanced products from micro chips to aerospace.

Increasing proposed tariff to about 45% on everything from China will make goods expensive to the US consumers depriving them the cheaper goods and exposing them to a monopolized expensive market.

If Trump lives up to his nebulous election campaign promises, he would not only jeopardize not only the largest export market of key US companies but also would invite a thunderous dearness wave throughout the country.

United States is the largest economy in the world but China, on the other side, is one of the fastest growing economy and larger contributor to economic growth around the globe. And for job creation, economic growth matters the most.

Neither Trump Nor Clinton

By: Azhar Azam

If you think that the United States is a democratic country and the elected “dummies” have the power to substantial influence on its economy, foreign policy or strategic interests; then you must be bearing a trance!

The ostensible government sitting around the Mall in Washington is just a fake institution to assume the directions given by the hidden government (actually controlling America) to give coverage to the economic and geo-political schemas, they improvise.

They are not much concerned by the so-called democratically elected individuals though need an obedient President to carry on the intended missions. For this, they intelligently manipulate people’s conscious to unconsciously follow them through C-SPAN (Cable-Satellite Public Affairs network).

Ashley Lutz report in Business Insider “These 6 Corporations Controls 90% of media in America” shares some transfixing piece of information. “Media Consolidation: The Illusion of Choice; Media has never been more consolidated. 6 media giants now control a staggering 90% of what we read, watch or listen to”. “232 media executives control the information diet of 277 million Americans; that’s 1 media executive to 850,000 subscribers”

Is there any change in US policy with transition from Republican George W. Bush to Democrat Barack H. Obama? Indeed, Bush announces “Mission Accomplished” speech and Obama repeatedly takes credit of US troops’ withdrawal from Iraq; but Obama when asked about military action against ISIS, he replied “removing all troops from Iraq was not my decision”.

Giving a primary speech in New Hampshire in 2008, Obama backtracked from his promise to increase US involvement in Afghanistan. “We will end this war in Iraq. We will bring our troops home. We will finish the job – We will finish the job against Al-Qaida in Afghanistan”. But the job is yet to finish and the US troops’ withdrawal has been delayed.

In 2014, Obama authorizes the United States the use of military force (AUMF) on ISIS without submitting formal proposal to Congress – an approval still up in the air. At the same time, he retreated to attacking Syria in 2013 after reports of using chemicals weapons by President Bashar-Al-Assad but abruptly “changed his mind” and moved to skeptical Congress for seeking approval, the attack was avoided after agreement between the United States and Russia on turning over Syrian chemical weapons.

Then there is a dual-side relationship with Pakistan; on one side, the State Department and President Obama praises Pakistan Army in war on terror but Congress blocks funds for F-16 purchase for Pakistan declaring an important strategic ally and on the other side US General hails Pakistan for Afghan peace process and anti-terrorism operations.

We used to believe that the United States can remotely detect and monitor all the objects and activities via satellite but all its most advanced satellite technology exposed as top-3 most wanted terrorists by the United States has been Osama-Bin-Laden, Mullah Muhammad Omer and Eyman Al-Zawahiri; Al-Zawahiri is yet to be captured or killed, Osama killed in controversial military operation, and Mullah Omer died naturally.

Meanwhile, Muslims’ death toll, killed directly or indirectly, in US-led wars, reached nearly 5-million but world is still to witness the Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). There were certainly WMDs; not in Iraq but dropped on Iraq by the United States.

Former Canadian Minister of National Defense, Paul Hellyer, says about secrecy “It is ironic that the US should be fighting monstrously expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, allegedly to bring democracy to those countries, when it itself can no longer claim to be called a democracy, when trillions, and I mean thousands of billions of dollars have been spent on the projects about which the Congress and the Commander in Chief (President) have been kept deliberately in the dark”.

"There exists a shadowy government with its own Air Force, its own Navy, its own fundraising mechanism, and the ability to pursue its own ideas of national interest, free from all check and balances, and free of law itself”, Senator Daniel K. Inouye.

All this points to the one-single direction that is: from George Walker Bush and Barack Hussein Obama to Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump; each and every US President is merely a pseudo to implement plans of the hidden government.

India-Russia Deals: Mystified India Caught Up Between United States and Russia

By: Azhar Azam


A famous diplomat describes Indo-Russian and Indo-US relations as “India is that beautiful fiancée everybody engages with, nobody would marry”. Looks as if pretty much true in the ongoing broad-spectrum geo-political picture!

Not long ago, Conversation Among President Nixon, President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger), and the President’s Assistant (Haldeman); Nixon referred Indra Gandhi a “bitch” and Kissinger described Indians “bastards”.

Also New York Times Book Review of “The Blood Telegram, Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide” by Gary J. Bass unearths secret tapes recorded in White House where Richard Nixon referred Indra Gandhi “The Old Bitch”. “I don’t know why the hell anybody would reproduce in that damn country (India) but they do”, Henry Kissinger said.

Then after a long diplomatic rift between India and the United States, the world witnessed an unnatural strategic alliance between the two countries in the last few years aimed at containing China’s growing influence in South Asia region. This con Indian act enraged Russia, Indian oldest ally, and led to instinctive Russia-Pakistan unique ties; an alliance that frustrated India.

After a series of trade and strategic initiatives with US, a single “Shut-up” call by Russia to India, turning down its request to cancel military drills with Pakistan, flattens India. So, in fear of losing Russia to Pakistan, India is asserting dire efforts to pull back Moscow and inked 16-Agreements/MOUs on the sidelines of BRICS (a consortium of 05-emerging countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit for nearly $24 billion.

Oil Deal - $12.9 billion

In oil sector, PJSC Rosneft-led group (Trafigura Group and United Capital Partners) signed an agreement with Essar Energy Holdings Ltd. to acquire 98% of Essar Oil Limited (EOL) at an enterprise value of $10.9 billion. The transaction also includes the sale of Vadinar Port for $2 billion (total pact value $12.9 billion).

Essar Oil operates India’s second largest oil refinery, has pan-India network of 2,700 retail outlets, and its Vadinar Port with existing throughput capacity of 20 MTA contributes to 9% of Indian refinery output.

Is This Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)?

It is worth noting that India has been claiming that it is one of the biggest foreign direct investments (FDI) in India but factually it is only a sale transaction between the two companies aimed at Essar Group to pay off its huge debt of $17.8 billion and lenders have been pressing Essar hard to repay the money owed.

Former Executive Director SEBA JN Gupta in an interview with CNBC-TV18 rejected such claims saying “No money is coming to India because 90 percent of Essar is owned off-shore by Ruia. So the money will remain out of the company, there will be no money flowing into the country”.

The supposed deal hence allows foreign companies to profit from the largest growing Indian oil market which is expected to make up nearly half of the global oil demand by 2040, according to bloomberg. The Analysts question why this opportunity has not been exploited by the Indian companies?

Strategic Repercussions

Besides the pact faces violation of western sanctions on Kremlin over Crimea annexation, it would have serious strategic repercussions as well. Apart from Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia have also been pursuing to grab this deal. And now when Rosneft-Trafigura-UCP are likely to refine Venezuelan crude oil at Vadinar refinery, the business interests of both Iran and Saudi Arabia would be carved in India undermining bilateral relations. This may be the reason that Iran has shown intent to join CPEC and now Afghanistan is also following Iran.

Defense Deal - $10.5 billion

In defense cooperation, India has signed three major agreements valued at $10.5 billion with Russia against purchase of (5) S-400 Triumph Missile Systems, (4) Stealth Frigates, and joint venture to produce (200) Kamkov-226T Light Utility Helicopters.

S-400 Triumph (NATO Reporting Name: SA-21 Growler) is Russian advanced deadly anti-missile and anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile (SAM) system capable to destroy targets within the range of 400kms. India is expected to deploy these systems on Pakistan and China front. The cost of (5) S-400 Triumph is estimated at $5.5 billion.

India has been chasing this system since China has contracted Almaz-Antey for (6) S-400 air defense systems at reported value of $3 billion. China would receive first batch of these systems in earlier 2017 after signing the agreement in 2014 as Rostec head said that Russia could only supply it for other countries after meeting its own defense needs.

China has already made an advance payment for S-400 systems but about India, there is always an imprecision to buy such a highly expensive military equipment. If India somehow manages the financial room to buy S-400, the timeframe of delivery and costs are yet to be finalized also. Furthermore, if India poses any threat to China and its closest strategic ally, Pakistan, China would not vacillate to deploy the system to secure its own or its ally’s interests.

Likewise, the purchase of frigates and light utility helicopters is nothing new and both India and Russia have been negotiating many such deals for quite some time, some of which have eventually faltered. Also, these are merely the inter-government agreements (IGAs) and might take years to turn into contracts after settling out various knotty barriers.

Nutshell

Lastly, the analysts see these pacts as a corrective measure to realign Russia after Indian pronounced lean towards the United States but in doing so, India might stall itself by being erratic in building sustainable alliance with either United States or Russia, ultimately falling in pits.

As India tries to get closer to Russia, the heat in India-US relations is expected to cool down and coddle strategic alliance appears to sink into the deepest Pacific Ocean. In the larger global perspective, mystified India fails to gauge its strategic goals once again and is caught up between Russia and United States.

Pak-Sino-Russo: A Formidable Triangle in Making

By: Azhar Azam

As Middle East continues to tingle over US-Russia tussle in Syria; South Asia is quickly emerging into a new geo-politics dais for global powers, particularly United States aiming to contain growing influence of China in the region.

United States conveyed its dissent the moment Pakistan signed various memorandum of understanding (MOU) with China in wake of Silk Road initiatives, purely intended to seek its economic growth by a chain of energy and infrastructure projects, dubbed as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

In discontent, United States radically reformed its regional strategy to mend ties with India and maneuver India to confront both China and Pakistan as Pakistan provides China the passage to potentially touch 65-nations, 4.4 billion people and control nearly 30% of the global economy.

Pakistan, underlying United States’ inclination to India, Indian sponsored terror attacks in Pakistan through Afghanistan soil, and shallow Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, moved to Kremlin, forming new global strategic formations. Pakistan is now strategically well placed with off course China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia.

Afghanistan, said to be a “Graveyard of Empires”, is yet to be settled out and India’s role in Afghanistan is inconsequential. It is a land-lock country and the only way the United States can exit its assets from Afghanistan is through northern areas of Pakistan.

Though current Afghanistan government is pro-India but geographically India cannot access Afghanistan without Pakistan so it is next to impossible for India to insert an active role in Afghanistan. Moreover, Afghans have resisted against foreign occupation and interference so United States must need Pakistan, not India, to devise a workable plan in Afghanistan.

India failed to realize the long-term consequences distanced itself from its major global ally, Russia, to execute the US plans in return of trade, strategic, and defense cooperation such as (Logistics Exchange and Memorandum of Agreement (LEMAO), Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD), and Major Defense Partner (MDP).

India now gets closer to United States, lagging its oldest partner Russia behind who supported India across all sectors including regional and international issues since 1947. This Indian duplicity naturally dismayed Russia and unleashed an inevitable vacuum in the region and forced Russia to align with Pakistan, its cold war rival.

Both the countries have already signed a historic agreement for construction of North-South gas pipeline by 2020 for supply of 12.4 billion cubic meters per annum with an investment of US $2-$2.5 billion.

This project will follow the BOOT (Build Own Operate Transfer) model which would mean that the project will be built and operated by the manufacturer for 25 years and the company will earn revenue for gas deliveries to recover its investments and return on investment (ROI) afterwards the project will be handed over to government of Pakistan.

The deal will open windows of business opportunities for Russia in multiple non-oil sectors of not only Pakistan but also its allying countries in the region.

After a spate of high-level visits by Pakistan armed forces, both countries have also signed a defense agreement where Russia will provide Mi-35 “Hind-E” attack helicopters Pakistan aiming at military-to-military relationship. At his visit to Moscow last year, army chief General Raheel Sharif spent about 16 hours at an arms expo near Moscow and seemingly has been highly impressive while his inspection of the weapon systems and the live demonstrations.

The addition of Mi-35 attack helicopters would certainly boost the military capability of Pakistan to counter internal and external threats. Furthermore, Russia also played a vital role in assigning membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to Pakistan.

Then there is “Friendship 2016”, first ever joint military exercise between Russia and Pakistan. Other significance of these military drills is that these have been conducted at a time when Pakistan-India relations are at nail-biting point following Uri attack.

Russia, China’s ally, snubbing Indian plea to cancel the exercise or at-least postpone in support of India, sent its troops to Pakistan. This event hence changes the geo-political equation in the region especially when Turkey and Saudi Arabia bear strategic and diplomatic assaults by the United States whereas Iran, an ally of both Russia and China, has shown intent to join CPEC.

Indian analysts embarrassed by the Russian rebuff, term it as “an unfriendly act against India” and “utter Russian disregard for Indian political sensitivities.” “India needs to go in for a divorce from this Special Strategic Partnership which now exists only in name.”

“Russia did a U-TURN on its earlier declared intentions logically indicates that Russia has succumbed to Chinese pressure and China is Pakistan’s most vaunted strategic patron. Chinese pressure would have been intense on Russia so as to bail out Pakistan from a virtual global isolation.”

“Russian strategic and political pivot to the China-Pakistan Axis is strategic pivot to India’s two implacable enemies, namely China and Pakistan. ‘doubly reinforces’ Indian public perceptions that Russia has indulges in a well-calibrated unfriendly act against India and the Indian people.”

These quotes give a plain Indian frustration out of Russian move to downplay India and warm up towards Pakistan for bilateral defense cooperation. However the article does not spotlight on Indian abrupt spin to the United States away from Russia.

With China already a long lasting and trusted ally of Pakistan, the addition of Russia in the camp would shape a formidable triangle of Pak-Sino-Russo changing the dynamics of geo-political and geo-strategic positioning.

Pakistan on the other side has a close relationship with some of the influential Middle East countries lead by Saudi Arabia, so for Russia; it is not just Pakistan but also the Middle East is a potential future market to re-stabilize its economy which has been hit hard by western sanctions after Crimea annexation and falling oil prices in the world.

HP Splits Again: HPE to Spin-Merge with Micro Focus for $8.8B

By: Azhar Azam

Meg Whitman - Image Credit: Getty/Jewel Samad/Saloon

Inside the 12-months of HP splitting up into two-public industries after quarters of falling revenue: HPE to spin-off and merge its software business with UK-based Micro Focus for $8.8 billion transaction. Micro Focus also confirmed the intent to merge with HPE earlier this month.

In October last year, the Board of Directors approved the separation by means of a pro rate distribution into: HP Inc., the larger of the two, to retain logo and focus on PCs and Printers including 3D Printing business while Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) on Data Storage and Cloud Computing Networks.

The deal would fetch HP a cash payment of $2.5 billion and HPE shareholders to own 50.1% of the new company, Fortune said. This move comes within the four months of HPE announcement to sell out its IT Services unit to Virginia-based Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) for $8.5 billion.

Both the deals are expected to pull down Hewlett Packard Enterprise business to meager $28 billion, down from $52 billion in the last fiscal year, Salon reported.

In a bid to “smaller is better than to fade away”, Meg Whitman (CEO-HPE) said “I think we are making the right choices. Once the ES-CSC and Software-Micro Focus transactions are complete, HPE will be fast growing, higher-margin, and stronger free cash flow company, well positioned for the future.”

HPE is now more focused to shore up its hardware business as last year; it acquired Aruba Networks for $3 billion, the second largest Wi-Fi networks provider after Cisco. Last month, it also announced to purchase Silicon Graphics for $275 million, a servers and storage networks seller.

While HPE is converging on getting smaller, its major rival “Dell”; is expanding its processing hardware business. Michael Dell’s Texas tech company finalizes $60 billion deal to acquire EMC group, termed to be the largest technology-merger.

Whitman thinks otherwise. “The next five years is going to belong to the nimble, the fast and the focused", Whitman told CNBC. “So the contrast with Dell could not be more stark. They are bigger, we are getting smaller.”

HP Inc., announced in a press release on September 12, a definitive agreement to acquire Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.’s printer business for a deal valued at $1.05 billion. The acquisition intends to accelerate disruption of $55 billion copier segment and aims to reinvent and replace service-intensive copiers with superior multifunction printing, HP added.

Samsung earned revenue of 2-trillion won ($1.8 billion) in 2015 from printing business with 6,000 employees, a production base in China as well as more than 50 sales offices globally. However the agreement will allow Samsung to source printers from HP and market in Korea under Samsung brand.

This value is just a fraction of HP Inc.’s printing business of $21.2 billion in 2015 (down from $23.2 billion in 2014) but talking with the Fortune, Dion Weisler (CEO-HP Inc.) hoped that “the deal would help HP better compete in the copy machine market and help off-set declining sale of printers”.

HP Inc. Fiscal 2015 Full Year Results
The net revenue of HP Inc. declined by nearly 7%; to $107.1 billion in 2015 from $115.1 billion in 2014. The revenue by segment on year-over-year was (ended on October 31):

Personal Systems
Notebooks ($17.2 billion; down from $17.5 billion)
Desktops ($10.9 billion; down from $13.2 billion)
Workstations ($2.0 billion; down from $2.2 billion)
Other ($1.2 billion; down from $1.3 billion)

Printing
Supplies ($13.9 billion; down from $14.9 billion)
Commercial Hardware ($5.3 billion; down from $5.9 billion)
Consumer Hardware ($1.8 billion; down from $2.3 billion)

Enterprise Group
Industry Standard Servers ($13.4 billion; up from $12.4 billion)
Technology Services ($7.6 billion; down from $8.3 billion)
Storage ($3.1 billion; down from $3.3 billion)
Networking ($2.8 billion; down from $2.6 billion)
Business Critical Systems ($807 million; down from $929 million)

Enterprise Services
Infrastructure Technology Outsourcing ($12.1 billion; down from 14.0 billion)
Application and Business Services ($7.7 billion; down from 8.3 billion)

Others
Software ($3.4 billion; down from $3.7 billion)
HP Financial Services ($3.2 billion; down from $3.5 billion)
Corporate Investments ($27 million; down from $302 million)

Muslims' Fiasco

By: Azhar Azam

The mammoth number of around 1.6 billion Muslims around the world with majority in more than 50-countries and holding significant reserves in shape of both gold and foreign exchange seems to have no impact whatsoever on the immaculate fundamental ideology and teachings of the religion they follow.

For decades, they are undergoing endless mayhems and oppressions with limitless endurance by their callous rulers and pitiless western lords. Skirmish to take control, civil wars, internal violence, carpet bombardments, insurgencies or military assaults; each and every event is supposed to occur in Muslim controlled territories.

Then suffering terrible carnage in the regions where they are in minority; burnt alive, raped and brutal killings of kids, women, and men by the people they have been living along for years, are yet to lift their sagacity in the name of liberalism, democracy, peace and modesty.

The scenario within the Muslims countries themselves is scary too. Enjoying “Picnic” sitting alongside the storming river of their own blood, they ensure the flow must not ease down and actively contribute to supply human blood spelled through sectarian killings, ethnic divisions, Arab and non-Arab classifications and securing own geographical boundaries.

We appear to be a herd of goats escaping from wolf till one of us is victimized and then watching the wolf’s feast standing away not comprehending that it would be the other’s turn next time.

After World War-II, all today’s military and economic powerhouses first made their defense invincible before dashing onto the economic zone. They realized in no time the formidable consequences of battling each other, sectarian hazardousness and value of life.

Reaching pinnacle of deterrence followed by economic and technological revolutions just by building their nations on social, ethical grounds where justice and education are predominant dynamics in 40 to 50 years, they are now on the battle field of economy. In doing so, they are now searching for their new markets for both the military and technological products.

Where all are perished the blocks of World War-II? They are united, poised and respect each other on the basis of what we have been taught 1400 years ago.

9/11 exists in United States but shapes coalition forces (ISAF) including Germany, France, Italy, Australia, United Kingdom and many others to execute self-convicted Muslims in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. Brazenly, almost all of the Muslim countries supported them openly and if someone didn’t, opted to hush without uttering a word of defiance.

Why? Why didn’t the intellectuals of US-coalition countries warned their rulers to stay away from the war on terror never hurled over them by that time. Instead, they not only supported but vigorously partaken in this historic Muslims’ slay without any economic and financial provisos. How could they shirk it as it was a part of one common “Capitalistic and Economic Strategy” in the name of “War on Terror”!

Iran-Iraq War, Russia intrusion in Afghanistan, then 9/11 followed by Iraq seizure of Kuwait, the riots in Syria, Libya and Egypt, Bahrain Crisis and Saudi-Iran-backed Yemen conflict; shouldn’t be assessed these all happening are by default or by design?

A disastrous episode pays off prolific returns as all the economic, military & technological powers not only consume obsolete arms and ammunition ‘Arms’ but also test the efficacy of contemporary weapons on Muslims and their soils. Millions of innocent people killed, wounded, hundreds of thousands of kids lost their father, mother or both, mass numbers of modest women rapped and countless homes destroyed irrespective of sect, caste and religion.

The alleged planned anarchy fueled terrorism by pushing people in the Muslim countries en-route of violence, rebel and radical approach. Arms, weapons and fighter jets worth billions exported worldwide and smuggled to the rebellions through international black market or hidden sources.

Now neither of the oppressors needs to land their troops or carry out much of air strikes to secure their national interests. It is the Muslims rulers and rebels serving their objective to shatter each other by the weapons bought from the west.

Consequently, on one side, arch rivals Muslims are ad-infinitum flogged and on the other side; western economy find a rich market to exports of weapons, pharmaceuticals products, machineries, reconstruction articles etc.

You must doubt the sane of the person who link all these actions, activities and attacks with! Chessed up doggedly, it smells soundly a “War on Muslims” to initially engage them in conflicts and eventually to suck up their potency to meet challenges; making them the pawns.

Indian oppression in Kashmir, Russian brutality in Chechnya, Israeli atrocities on Palestinians, or US-led wars on terror; in any case, Muslims are the terrorists and Christian, Jews, Hindus, and Communists are guiltless!

Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim country with highly trained ground, air and marine troops, reasonable capability to produce weapons within the country and preeminent spy agency ISI, single-handedly conducting CIA, Mossad, RAW, MI6 and other notable counterparts. Despite feeble financial outlay and extraordinary geo-political and regional issues, Pakistan armed forces have repeatedly shown its capability to knob the internal and external threats.

Time and again, Pakistan armed forces have come across huge defense challenges yet surfaced successfully. Their inputs are incredible on all fronts; guarding national boundaries, curbing terrorism, and sorting out externally financed puppets including TTP, BLA, ransom and target killers. Even on the political, economic, and foreign façades, they have strongly presented the case of Pakistan.

Since independence in 1947, Pakistan has enriched in the sole area, defense and military capability and technology. Yet some “so-called intellectuals” criticize on the budgets, expenditures and role of Pakistan Army.

Let me ask one question from such morons, did any of the true intellectuals in United States, United Kingdom/Britain, France, Germany, China and others ever carped on their security forces? Or even if some of them did, how much crowd they pulled?

Never! Sovereignty cannot be compromised on such ‘Dupe Intellectuals’! Whenever a country features a bedlam, terrorist attack, or post-border intervention; these soldiers protect our dominion, honor, assets, and siblings. I have one word for those intellectuals – “Shut-up”!

They read, explore, and communicate to sell their thoughts for money and show off their knowledge and grip on history. Studying history is very vital to create history but if someone indulges in corruption, crime or advocating compromising national interests, should we surf history to spot these traitors?

These are some of the general factors of Muslims disgrace. The rulers somewhere are virtuous and economies affluent but not focusing on evolving a professionally trained armed forces. Similarly, a few have somehow developed a military might but the political mafias are propping up corruption, social inequalities and deny access to justice to relish personal interests. These evils have also triggered terrorism in the society slowly with outrageous upshots.

All the internal, external menaces and sectarian, ethnic and regional differences could only be washed out only if all the Muslim countries not just discourage provoking extremism but also ensure equality, justice in society and off course, reinforce armed forces so that they may not seek support of other countries at the time of pandemonium.

When Lion Rules

By: Azhar Azam

Gross Domestic Product $282.5 billion (PKR 29,597 Billion)
Pakistan GDP (at current market price) stood at $282.5 billion (PKR 29,597.9 billion) at the close of FY2016 in June, posting a GDP growth of 4.4% ($12.4 billion) against $270.1 billion for FY2015, according to data released by SBP on 25-August-2016.

Total Debt and Liabilities $214.4 billion (PKR 21,459.4 billion)
Total debt and liabilities of central government however accounted for $214.4 billion (PKR 22,459.0 billion) as of June-2016 which includes debt of $204.8 billion (PKR 21,459.4 billion) and liabilities of $9.6 billion (PKR 999.6 billion).

The data demonstrates a formidable rise in total debt from $185.7 billion (PKR 18,904.4 billion) to $204.8 billion (21,459.4 billion) on year-over-year in June-2016; posting an increase of 10.3% (13.5% in Pak Rupee), that is, by $19.1 billion (PKR 2,555.1 billion). Debt to GDP has climbed from 68.8% in FY2015 to 72.2% in FY2016.

• Domestic Debt $130.0 billion (PKR 13,623.2 billion)
• PSEs Domestic Debt $5.4 billion (PKR 568.1 billion)
• Total Liabilities $9.6 billion (PKR 999.6 billion) 
• *External Debt $69.4 billion (PKR 7,268.2 billion)

*Government External Debt $51.7 billion
Non-government External Debt $8.8 billion
International Monetary Fund (IMF) $6.0 billion
Intercompany External Debt from Investors Abroad $2.9 billion

The cost for Total Debt and Liabilities Servicing for FY2016 remained $15.4 billion; down from $16.7 billion in FY2015, posting a decline of $1.3 billion (8.1%):

Total Debt-to-GDP Ratio 75.9%

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-FY2016: $282.5 billion
• Debt and Liabilities (excluding Servicing)-FY2016: $214.4 billion (75.9%)
• Total Debt (excluding Liabilities)-FY-2016: $204.8 billion (72.5%)

Total Debt and Liabilities Servicing $15.4 billion (PKR 1,610.2 billion)

• Principal Repayment of External Debt and Liabilities $3.1 billion
• Interest Payment on Debt $11.8 billion
• Interest Payment on Liabilities $0.5 billion

Overall, the Debt and Liabilities-to-GDP ratio (excluding Debt and Liabilities Servicing) and Total Debt-to-GDP ratios increased from 72.2% and 68.8% to 75.9% and 72.5% respectively.

Government Borrowed $52.8 billion (PKR 5,527.3 billion) in 03-Years @ An Average of $1.4 Billion/Month (External Debt @ $254 Million/Month)

Current government took over in May-2013, the time when central government's total debt was $137.1 billion (PKR 13,513.6 billion) including external debt of $45 billion which now has outstripped $181.8 billion (PKR 19,040.9 billion) including external debt of $51.7 billion as of June-2016. The exchange rate has also rushed from 98.5663 to 104.7619 during the same period; up by 6.1956 (6.3%).

Thus the existing government has taken a total debt of *$52.8 billion (PKR 5,527.3 billion) at last day US dollar average exchange rate of 104.7619 by June-2016 including external debt of $9.4 billion (PKR 984.8 billion); at per month average of $1.4 billion (PKR 149.4 billion) including external debt of $254 million (PKR 26.6 billion) per month.

*PKR 5,527.3 billion/104.7619=$52.8 billion

Exports Plummets by $2.8 Billion and Balance of Trade by $2.9 Billion
Exports too has plummeted by $2.8 billion in FY2016; reporting year-over-year decline by terrible 11.3%; FY2016 ($21.8 billion), FY2015 ($24.6 billion) and FY 2014 ($22.9 billion); all the sectors suffered acute setbacks by:

• Textiles $768 million (-5.7%);
• Food $690 million (-15.7%);
• Petroleum $466 million (-50.6%);
• Others Manufactured Goods $612 million (-13.9%);
• Others $252 million (-18.9%)

Balance of Trade continued to widen as well, posting a further deficit of $2.9 billion in FY2016 (16.9% YoY); FY2014 (-$16.6 billion), FY2015 (-17.2 billion) and FY2016 (-$20.1 billion).

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Shows Scanty Growth @ $1.3 Billion But Much Lower Than $5.4 Billion in FY2008, Even $1.7 Billion in FY2015 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for the past three years has been: FY2014 ($1,698.6 million); FY2015 ($922.9 million) and FY2016 ($1,281.1 million). Though there was an increase of $358.2 million (38.8%) in FDI in FY2016 on YoY but after a decline of $775.7 million (45.7%); still over 24.5% lesser than FDI in FY2014.

Moreover, there is not much FDI except from China’s $593.9 million which is nearly half of total net FDI inflows, thanks to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. As a matter of fact, FDI from the major investing countries has declined in FY2016:

• United Arab Emirates ($218.8 million to $164.2 million)
• United Kingdom ($169.6 million to $79.8 million)
• United States ($208.9 million to $65.5 million)
• Italy ($115.3 million to $103.5 million)

FY2008 was the prime year of FDI in Pakistan when it surged to $5.4 billion but all governments failed to reap benefits and made mess of the opportunities: FY2006 ($3,521 million), FY2007 ($5,139.6 million), FY2008 ($5,410.2 million), and FY2009 ($3,719.9) before sharply weakening $820.6 million in FY2012.

Illusion of Foreign Exchange Reserves $23.1 Billion
The only credit government has been asserting is strengthening the foreign exchange reserves from $14.1 billion in FY2014 to $23.1 billion as of 19-August-2016; an increase of $9.0 billion (63.4%). Financial experts however characterize this rise “highly unsustainable” emphasizing that SBP has made it through borrowing and “a significant quantum of it by at very expensive rates”. “The government has raised $3 billion ($4.5 billion to-date) by offering Eurobonds and Sukuk at exorbitant rates of return.”

Importantly, falling oil prices internationally also helped government to boost its forex reserves as the oil import bill declined from $12.8 billion in FY2015 to $8.8 billion; a major cut by 31.2% narrowing the trade deficit by $4.0 billion.

Economy Heavily Rely On Workers’ Remittances $19.9 Billion
Pakistan hugely rely on the Workers’ remittances from overseas Pakistanis whose private inflows recorded highest in FY2016 ($19.9 billion) from FY2015 ($18.7 billion) and FY2014 ($15.8 billion); reporting an increase of $1.2 billion (6.4) against FY2015 and $4.1 billion (25.9%) against FY2014.

• Saudi Arabia ($6.0 billion; 30.0%)
• United Arab Emirates ($4.3 billion; 21.6%)
• United Kingdom ($2.6 billion; 13.1%)
• United States ($2.5 billion; 12.6%)
• Other GCC Countries ($2.4 billion; 12.1%)
• EU & Other Countries ($2.1 billion; 10.6%)

Major piece of the remittances inflows comes from Saudi Arabia and UAE but the ongoing slowdown in the Gulf region already is threatening to could decelerate this growth.

Consequently, the country’s economy is attributed by huge domestic and external debts, falling exports, uncertain exchange rate, and constrained foreign direct investment but the government is taking pride of economic growth on just artificially maintained foreign exchange reserves.

May be, this is the way “How Lion Rules”!

*figures are rounded-off so percentages may vary


Data Source: State Bank of Pakistan – Economic Data

Why Turkish D’état Coup Botched and Who Is The Gainer?

By: Azhar Azam

People all around the world witnessed the wondrous resistance by Turkish people on 15 July against the d’état coup by some of the elements in armed forces to topple Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government. The mutineers earlier declared to assume the control of the country and President Erdogan is on the way to escape.

Though this short-spanned tumult quickly ended into a failed attempt, thanks to thousands of people standing between the coup and President Erdogan, but everyday a new chronicle is released relating to this baffling military coup, mostly pointing towards involvement of the United States.

The analysts refer this staged coup in response to the geopolitical shift in the policy of Tayyip Erdogan; to disengage Turkey from regional disputes and focus on internal issues, economy, and people’s well being. Turkey has been in a process of reconciliation with Russia, the United States’ all-time rival, after the downing of Russian jet last November enforcing Russia to bar trade relations with Turkey.

Turkey impugns a US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, Erdogan’s adversary, for this conspiracy and has repeatedly demanded Washington to extradite him who apparently is indisposed to act so. Whatever is going to happen now but for sure, Russia seems to be a veritable gainer in this entire build-up “as it would lift blockade the West has created against Russian gas supply route (Turkish Stream) to Europe via Ukraine”, a project Washington has opposed invariably.

The signals are already hinting towards hasty repair of Turkish-Russo frayed relations as Tayyip Erdogan meets Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Aug 9. Turkey is NATO member and the United States at the same time also needs Turkey “as a strategic buffer between Russia and the Middle East, just as Europe needs it as a shield against the spillover of instability from the east”.

According to Russian Federal Custom Service data, the trade between Russian and Turkey has declined by over 57% in the first five months of 2016, year-over-year. Turkish authorities now sees shelved Black link, making Turkey a linchpin to Europe’s energy supplies by 2020, possible now if the relations with Russia are improved.

Modern Turkey was founded in 1923 when Mustafa Kemal defeated the Anatolian remnants of the Ottoman Empire who was then privileged as Ataturk (Father of the Turks). Grand Nation Assembly declared Turkey a Republic and Kemal Ataturk the President.

In 1928, Turkey became secular and the clause retaining Islam as state religion was removed from the constitution. In 2002, pro-Islamic “Justice and Development Party (AK)” wins 2002 elections with thumping majority but promises to stick to secular principles of constitution. Turkey has a history of constant military coups since 1960 as well.

Deputy leader Abdullah Gul was named premier who resigned as Prime Minister after AK party head Recep Tayyip Erdogan takes over in 2003. It was the same year when parliament refused to allow the deployment of U.S. forces for Iraq war though permitted U.S. to use Turkish air space.

Under the rule of Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish economy has substantially flourished and befell as world’s 18th largest economy with a GDP of about $800 billion in 2014 whereas per capita income has almost tripled to reach at nearly $10,500 for the same year, from a modest value of $3,500 in 2002. It is also the 7th largest economy in Europe and an active member of G-20, a group of most powerful economies in the world.

Between 2002 to 2012; extreme poverty is Turkey dropped from 13% to 4.5% and moderate poverty curtailed from 44% to 21%, improving the access to health, education and other services for less well-offs. It created some 6.3 million jobs before global financial crisis although unemployment ratio is still around 10.4%.

Turkish GDP growth deteriorated in 2009 to -4.8% but it bounced back strongly reporting a growth of 9.2% and 8.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The average growth realized between 2002-2014 was 4.9% and between 2010-2014, it averaged at 5.4%.

Exports have risen from $113.9 billion in 2010 to $143.9 billion in 2015, down from $157.6 billion in 2014. Likewise imports have also mounted from $185.5 billion to $207.2 billion, down from $242.1 billion. CPI inflation has also slightly increased from 8.17% in 2014 to 8.81% in 2015. Central bank has foreign exchange reserves of $111 billion as of 28 January 2016.

AK Party has set an ambitious target to reach at 10th largest world economy by 2023 – a $2 trillion economy, per capita income of $25,000, and exports of $500 billion. Most of the economists believe that the goals are unreachable but one has to aim high to reach heights.

Turkey graduated from low-income status to lower-middle-income status in 1955 and remained there for half a century before being classified as upper-middle-income country in 2005. World Bank defines lower income country with per capita income in between $1,046 to $4,025 and an upper-middle-class country with per capita income of $4,126 to $12,735.


Sources: Global Affairs Press, Bloomberg, Aljazeera, Al-Monitor, MOD Turkey, CIA Factbook, BBC, World Bank, Istanbul Policy Center