South Asia: New Global Cold War Theater

By: Azhar Azam

India always seems to be euphoric whenever there is US-Indian interaction either on trade, strategic partnership, military cooperation, or sharing intelligence. Now there is new US bonbon dubbed as “Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA)”.

LEMOA provides a framework that would allow both the militaries of countries to use each other’s land, air, and naval bases for logistics support, replenishment of supplies, and repair of assets including in calamities for humanitarian relief.

It is not an agreement to set-up bases either of the countries but to seek support in shape of food, oil, transportation, medical aid, billeting, lubricants, spare parts, and repair and maintenance etc. such as in case of joint military drills on deferred payments. In fact, LEMAO is not a new pact and was first mooted in earlier this 2000s.

By either means, Indian delight is beyond any sense since it is not in the least bit likely to cash in on LEMAO because India has no strategic interests in Americas. Although it might pay off United States, but only to a limited extent, after chafing relations with Pakistan over F-16 and hold up of $300 million in military reimbursements.

This rift in Pak-US relations aggravated Pakistan and malfunctioned trust between two countries greatly. United States hence banked on India in search of surrogate strategic partner in the region however India strategic location cannot serve US interests except new cold war adversary, China. Yet again, India hugely lacks the capability to threat “Giant” China across all sectors and its intrusion in Afghanistan or any kind of engagement in Middle East is verily unnatural and intolerable for the people of those countries.

United States after annoying Pakistan; had to rely on India to maintain its influence in the region especially when it has pushed Turkey back to Russia and is now short of friends globally. Indian total submission to US, only in abhor of Pakistan and China, without any shared interests is helping US cause. India is quite contended with so-called “Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI)” and “Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD)”, the nodes to strengthen Indo-US ties.

“While the strategic dimensions of the India-US relationship have seen very important positive strides in recent years, as embodied in Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parriker’s ongoing visit to the U.S., the commercial side has been a little underwhelming”, said Dhruva Jaishankar, fellow for foreign policy at Brookings Institute India.

He further added “U.S. goods exports to India have grown only 22 percent since 2008, and other trade indicators, including in services are not impressive. Indian exports have not grown in the past two years despite a much healthier economic outlook.”

Preposterously, both counties’ dailies are projecting it a landmark in US-India defense collaboration or “practical engagement and exchange” by US Defense Secretary Ashthon Carter, admitting the lack of applicability in earlier treaties. India is exceedingly charmed by US support for Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), Missile technology Control Regime (MTCR) or being declared major non-aligned NATO ally, and now Major Defense Partner (MDP) but none of these fail to realize any definite benefits so far.

Horrid over New Silk Road or OBOR (B&R Initiative) for the mammoth $140 billion, Washington does not want Beijing to take control of South China Sea and make a strong footprint in the region, denying Pentagon the access to Western Pacific and unexploited gas and oil reserves.

The OBOR proposes to configure a Pan-Eurasian connectivity potentially touching 65-nations, 4.4 billion people, around 30% of the global economy, and a total infrastructure need of around $5,000 billion ($5 trillion) besides building-up a hypermarket of nearly 10-times of the size of the US market in the next two decades. PwC notes about $250 billion in projects that have either been built already, recently started construction, or have been agreed on and signed in relation to B&R.

“The $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has the potential to unblock vast swathes of South Asia, with Gwadar, operated by China Overseas Port Holdings, slated to become a key naval hub of the New Silk Roads (Sputnik News).” Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) is yet other project in B&R initiative.

Now US “Pivot to Asia” is more perceived as a map to contain China’s growing political and economic clout in South Asia using India as its proxy in the region. India has at all times skeptic with its nuclear armed neighbors, China and Pakistan. Besides China and Pakistan; Russia and Iran, surprised by rapid Indian foreign policy rapprochement, also closely monitoring Indo-US “deals”.

India tags Pakistan for hundreds of thousands protestors holding Pakistan flags demanding freedom in Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK). Whilst, according to Indian official figures, there were only 150-militants in IoK last years and over 700,000 military troops are deployed to fight mere 150-militants!

International community has been wickedly silent on killings of tens of thousands of Kashmiries, human rights abuses and nearly 7,000 cases of sexualized and gendered violations accusing Pakistan for catastrophe. But if India requires almost 01-million forces to control a small territory, doesn’t it necessitate the substantial evidence to United Nations that who is the guilty party and destabilizing the region?

Modi in recent speeches has thanked people of Azad Kashmir, Baluchistan, and Gilgit Baltistan in Pakistan for supporting them yet again how many times the world has heard of human rights abuses, killings or rapes in these areas? Instead, Indian spies on Pakistan soil have been captured who have been involved in handling, facilitating, and financing terrorism and to shush the voices of freedom in IoK, India is diverting world’s attention toward phony issues. And Washington, purposely patronizing Indian brutalities and sabotaging peace acts to contain China, Pakistan, and Russia.

New Delhi’s impulsive alignment with the Washington immediately threatens BRICS to disintegrate, undermining the region’s stability and turning the region into a theatre of new global Cold War. Modi is invariably committed to mar China and Pakistan even if the United States doesn’t impel India to do and he is not hesitating to knock down the interests of its unprecedented ally, Russia.

In case BRICS shatters, Russia will be forced to make a choice out of China and India. Though Moscow certainly would avoid to reaching such a stage but Indian capitulation with US might leave it with no alternative option.

“If India irrevocably commits itself to pro-US anti-China course then sooner or later India will inevitable come under pressure from Washington to loosen its ties with Moscow. This would most probably happen in the context of an artificially crisis, making it appear that the decision was Moscow’s rather than New Delhi’s or Washington”. (The Duran)

Eventually this leads to new strategic formations in the world; US and India on side and China, Pakistan, Russia, and Middle East on the other. By all reasons, Indian government and media is dancing on the tunes of the Washington to emasculate none but only itself and the region and people all over the places are getting amused on the their ostensible elation.

Belt and Road: How Mega Project of Six Magical Corridors Spurs Economic Growth

By: Azhar Azam

Boonyong, a Thai rice exporter, looks forward to lowering transport costs when a 845-km rail network connecting China and Thailand gets completed. Currently, his rice products are delivered by road and sea, which takes about three and five days, respectively.

“It will only take us around 18 hours to send rice to China by train, with the freight cost lowered to about one-third of that of road or sea transport,” said Boonyong, a Thai businessman who sells rice to China at an annual profit of over 50 million yuan ($7.68 million).

B&R THEME
Through B&R, China wants to synchronize nearly 4.4 billion people, over 60-countries, take control of 30% of the global economy and a total of $2.1 trillion of gross production focusing infrastructure, trade, policy, finance, and people.

WHAT IS ONE BELT, ONE ROAD (OBOR) OR BELT AND ROAD (B&R)
In 2013, China’s President Xi Jinping announced Silk Route Economic Belt (SREB) and the 21st century Maritime Silk Route (MSR) during his visits to various states. The composition of these two initiatives was named Belt and Road or “一带一路” or “Yídàiyílù” in Chinese.

Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) is planned to link China with Europe through central and western Asia; and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route (MSR) is intended to connect southern China with South East Asia and Africa by sea.

SIX (6) ECONOMIC CORRIDORS
China is mulling six economic corridors to give a strong impetus to integrated economic growth between Eurasia and Africa:

Corridors are set to run through China-Mongolia-Russia, New Eurasian Land Bridge, China-Central and West Asia, China-Indo-China Peninsula, China-Pakistan, and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, said vice premier Zhang Gaoli.

CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the first of six corridors to start construction. This “fate changer” project is deriving a huge $51 billion investment in infrastructure, energy, and railway along with creating thousands of job and investment opportunities.

It is about 20% of Pakistan’s GDP, divulges the scale and scope of the project. The whole project could add up to about 4.5% to Pakistan’s GDP, enlarging an overall GDP growth of 9% of the country.

The construction of CPEC is being progressed on fast track basis and just about half of the project has already completed. Keeping in the significance of CPEC for both China and Pakistan, special troops have been deployed for its security, overseen by Pakistan armed forces.

WHY GWADAR PORT IS SO VITAL
Gwadar Port, core of the CPEC, would help China to transport oil of $200 million/day ($73 billion/annum) from over 100-days to just about 30-days, besides other trade and strategic advantages. Gwadar, 18m, is the deepest port (9m; nearly double of Jebel Ali) in the world and could facilitate an 120-births or ships against Jebel Ali 67-births.

We could imagine that if Jebel Ali Port with 9m depth and 67-births can make GCC grow to such extent, how greatly Gwadar Port with 18m and 120-birth can lead to Pakistan growth.

PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES
70-countries have actively participated in scheme and 30-countries have already signed cooperative agreements with China to build B&R jointly. There are around 900 deals in negotiation valued at $890 billion, including a rail link between Beijing and Duisburg, a transport hub in Germany.

PROJECT FINANCING
China is expected to invest an estimated sum of eye-watering $900 in 60-countries included in the program to shore up road, rail, and maritime trade by creating economic corridors. Infrastructure construction in Asia would require an annual investment of around $730 billion from 2015 to 2020.

It has been financed by Silk Road $40 billion, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) $100 billion, and the incorporation of New Development Bank (formerly BRICS Development Bank) with an initial capital of $50 billion and to be increased up to $100 billion. B&R is backed by beefy China’s foreign exchange reserves valuing at about $3.2 trillion as of August 2016.

Chinese Ministry of Commerce tells that in 2015, Chinese enterprises invested nearly $15 billion in 49-countries within the framework of Belt and Road cooperation, a year-over-year increase of 18.2%.

CHINA IS ALREADY REAPING BELT AND ROAD BENEFITS
In the next five years, China’s imports are expected to exceed $10 trillion, outwards direct investment (ODI) to reach $500 billion, and Chinese outbound tourist visits will also rise to 500 million.

TOURISM TO FETCH REVENUE OF $200 BILLION
Belt and Road has a great potential to bring total revenue of $200 billion in tourism to countries engaged. In an ongoing tourism festival, a tourism official said that 150 million Chinese tourists are expected to visit Belt and Road countries in the next five years.

“Another 85 million tourists from those countries are expected to visit China, bringing revenue of up to $110 billion, he said at the Silk Road International Tourism Festival in Lanzhou, Gansu Province.” Between China and B&R countries, over 25 million tourists travel annually and the market is anticipated to expand quickly as the projects link more than 60-nations.

TACKLING INDUSTRIAL OVER-CAPACITY
China is facing acute industrial over-capacity and OBOR provides a great opportunity to block this monster dilemma. In 2014, China signed 44% of its new engineering projects with Belt and Road countries and the figure has escalated to 53% in the first 05-months of 2016.

TRADE WITH B&R COUNTRIES EXCEEDS $600 BILLION IN FIRST 08-MONTHS OF 2016
During the first eight months of 2016, China’s trade with Belt and Road countries have surpassed $600 billion, 26% of China’s total trade volume. For the same period, China has invested up to $10 billion in Belt and Road countries through AIIB and Silk Fund.

Deputy Head of Ministry of Commerce said that Chinese companies have established over 50-trade and economic cooperation zones in B&R countries, investing over $15.6 billion, earning host countries tax revenue of $900 million and creating 70,000 jobs.

YUAN INTERNATIONALIZATION
Trough B&R, China visualizes “more capital convergence and currency integration” and gradually lessening dependence on US dollar. The B&R countries will be pushed to trade in renminbi heading to yuan internationalization.

Some countries such as Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Thailand are already broadly using renminbi for trade. “By the end of 2014, offshore renminbi deposits amounted to ¥1.6 trillion and offshore renminbi bonds reached ¥350 billion – a trend supported by the belt-road initiative. Moreover, this initiative calls for establishing a renminbi-nominated Asian bond market."

Targets 6.5% GDP Growth, 25-million New Jobs, and Reducing Poverty by 70 million
In 13th Five Year Plan, President Xi Jinping targets 6.5% annual GDP growth. Close down middle-income economic trap, raise annual per capita income to $12,600, create 25 million new jobs, and reduce poverty in rural areas by 70 million through urbanization policies.

CHINA’S ECONOMY
According to China Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP grew by 6.7% on y-o-y in first three quarters of 2016, to reach $7.87 trillion.

Foreign trade declined for the same period by 1.9% to $2.61 trillion; exports dropped by 1.6% ($2.14 trillion) and imports plummeted by 2.3% (7.47 trillion yuan).

However, China continues to retain its global leading position on trade in goods with a rise in global market share from 11.2% in 2013 to 13.8% in 2015.

Foreign direct investment in (FDI) shoed a growth of 6% in 2015 and reached at $136 billion, ranked in top-3 in world, UN report says.

CHINA-AFRICA COOPERATION
Last year, in December, President Si announced at Johannesburg Summit in South Africa 10-major China-Africa cooperation plans worth of $60 billion in the next three years.

Vice-Foreign Minister Zhang Ming said at a news conference that China and Africa have signed at least 243 cooperation agreements of various kinds worth $50.7 billion since the summit.

“Among these agreements, Chinese companies’ direct investment and commercial loans to Africa surpass $46 billion, accounting for 91 percent of the total volume,” he said.

CHINA DEBT CRISIS
At the close of 2015, China reported total debt of 168.48 trillion yuan ($25.59 trillion). However, Li Yang, a Chinese expert is convinced that this debt is controllable and China would not suffer from debt crisis as the government owns enough assets to handle debt risk.

Li said that even taking the debt of local governments’ financing platform into account, the amount of total government debts at the end of 2015, reaching 56.8%, was still below the warning line of 60% set by the European Union.

In contrast, the current debt ratio of the Japanese government has surpassed 200%, and that of the US government and French government is over or around 120%.


Sources: The Market Mogul, USA China Daily, Maxxelli, Shanghai Daily, Lehman Brown, Yale Global, China State Council

India-Russia Deals: Mystified India Caught Up Between United States and Russia

By: Azhar Azam


A famous diplomat describes Indo-Russian and Indo-US relations as “India is that beautiful fiancée everybody engages with, nobody would marry”. Looks as if pretty much true in the ongoing broad-spectrum geo-political picture!

Not long ago, Conversation Among President Nixon, President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger), and the President’s Assistant (Haldeman); Nixon referred Indra Gandhi a “bitch” and Kissinger described Indians “bastards”.

Also New York Times Book Review of “The Blood Telegram, Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide” by Gary J. Bass unearths secret tapes recorded in White House where Richard Nixon referred Indra Gandhi “The Old Bitch”. “I don’t know why the hell anybody would reproduce in that damn country (India) but they do”, Henry Kissinger said.

Then after a long diplomatic rift between India and the United States, the world witnessed an unnatural strategic alliance between the two countries in the last few years aimed at containing China’s growing influence in South Asia region. This con Indian act enraged Russia, Indian oldest ally, and led to instinctive Russia-Pakistan unique ties; an alliance that frustrated India.

After a series of trade and strategic initiatives with US, a single “Shut-up” call by Russia to India, turning down its request to cancel military drills with Pakistan, flattens India. So, in fear of losing Russia to Pakistan, India is asserting dire efforts to pull back Moscow and inked 16-Agreements/MOUs on the sidelines of BRICS (a consortium of 05-emerging countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit for nearly $24 billion.

Oil Deal - $12.9 billion

In oil sector, PJSC Rosneft-led group (Trafigura Group and United Capital Partners) signed an agreement with Essar Energy Holdings Ltd. to acquire 98% of Essar Oil Limited (EOL) at an enterprise value of $10.9 billion. The transaction also includes the sale of Vadinar Port for $2 billion (total pact value $12.9 billion).

Essar Oil operates India’s second largest oil refinery, has pan-India network of 2,700 retail outlets, and its Vadinar Port with existing throughput capacity of 20 MTA contributes to 9% of Indian refinery output.

Is This Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)?

It is worth noting that India has been claiming that it is one of the biggest foreign direct investments (FDI) in India but factually it is only a sale transaction between the two companies aimed at Essar Group to pay off its huge debt of $17.8 billion and lenders have been pressing Essar hard to repay the money owed.

Former Executive Director SEBA JN Gupta in an interview with CNBC-TV18 rejected such claims saying “No money is coming to India because 90 percent of Essar is owned off-shore by Ruia. So the money will remain out of the company, there will be no money flowing into the country”.

The supposed deal hence allows foreign companies to profit from the largest growing Indian oil market which is expected to make up nearly half of the global oil demand by 2040, according to bloomberg. The Analysts question why this opportunity has not been exploited by the Indian companies?

Strategic Repercussions

Besides the pact faces violation of western sanctions on Kremlin over Crimea annexation, it would have serious strategic repercussions as well. Apart from Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia have also been pursuing to grab this deal. And now when Rosneft-Trafigura-UCP are likely to refine Venezuelan crude oil at Vadinar refinery, the business interests of both Iran and Saudi Arabia would be carved in India undermining bilateral relations. This may be the reason that Iran has shown intent to join CPEC and now Afghanistan is also following Iran.

Defense Deal - $10.5 billion

In defense cooperation, India has signed three major agreements valued at $10.5 billion with Russia against purchase of (5) S-400 Triumph Missile Systems, (4) Stealth Frigates, and joint venture to produce (200) Kamkov-226T Light Utility Helicopters.

S-400 Triumph (NATO Reporting Name: SA-21 Growler) is Russian advanced deadly anti-missile and anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile (SAM) system capable to destroy targets within the range of 400kms. India is expected to deploy these systems on Pakistan and China front. The cost of (5) S-400 Triumph is estimated at $5.5 billion.

India has been chasing this system since China has contracted Almaz-Antey for (6) S-400 air defense systems at reported value of $3 billion. China would receive first batch of these systems in earlier 2017 after signing the agreement in 2014 as Rostec head said that Russia could only supply it for other countries after meeting its own defense needs.

China has already made an advance payment for S-400 systems but about India, there is always an imprecision to buy such a highly expensive military equipment. If India somehow manages the financial room to buy S-400, the timeframe of delivery and costs are yet to be finalized also. Furthermore, if India poses any threat to China and its closest strategic ally, Pakistan, China would not vacillate to deploy the system to secure its own or its ally’s interests.

Likewise, the purchase of frigates and light utility helicopters is nothing new and both India and Russia have been negotiating many such deals for quite some time, some of which have eventually faltered. Also, these are merely the inter-government agreements (IGAs) and might take years to turn into contracts after settling out various knotty barriers.

Nutshell

Lastly, the analysts see these pacts as a corrective measure to realign Russia after Indian pronounced lean towards the United States but in doing so, India might stall itself by being erratic in building sustainable alliance with either United States or Russia, ultimately falling in pits.

As India tries to get closer to Russia, the heat in India-US relations is expected to cool down and coddle strategic alliance appears to sink into the deepest Pacific Ocean. In the larger global perspective, mystified India fails to gauge its strategic goals once again and is caught up between Russia and United States.

Pak-Sino-Russo: A Formidable Triangle in Making

By: Azhar Azam

As Middle East continues to tingle over US-Russia tussle in Syria; South Asia is quickly emerging into a new geo-politics dais for global powers, particularly United States aiming to contain growing influence of China in the region.

United States conveyed its dissent the moment Pakistan signed various memorandum of understanding (MOU) with China in wake of Silk Road initiatives, purely intended to seek its economic growth by a chain of energy and infrastructure projects, dubbed as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

In discontent, United States radically reformed its regional strategy to mend ties with India and maneuver India to confront both China and Pakistan as Pakistan provides China the passage to potentially touch 65-nations, 4.4 billion people and control nearly 30% of the global economy.

Pakistan, underlying United States’ inclination to India, Indian sponsored terror attacks in Pakistan through Afghanistan soil, and shallow Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, moved to Kremlin, forming new global strategic formations. Pakistan is now strategically well placed with off course China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia.

Afghanistan, said to be a “Graveyard of Empires”, is yet to be settled out and India’s role in Afghanistan is inconsequential. It is a land-lock country and the only way the United States can exit its assets from Afghanistan is through northern areas of Pakistan.

Though current Afghanistan government is pro-India but geographically India cannot access Afghanistan without Pakistan so it is next to impossible for India to insert an active role in Afghanistan. Moreover, Afghans have resisted against foreign occupation and interference so United States must need Pakistan, not India, to devise a workable plan in Afghanistan.

India failed to realize the long-term consequences distanced itself from its major global ally, Russia, to execute the US plans in return of trade, strategic, and defense cooperation such as (Logistics Exchange and Memorandum of Agreement (LEMAO), Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD), and Major Defense Partner (MDP).

India now gets closer to United States, lagging its oldest partner Russia behind who supported India across all sectors including regional and international issues since 1947. This Indian duplicity naturally dismayed Russia and unleashed an inevitable vacuum in the region and forced Russia to align with Pakistan, its cold war rival.

Both the countries have already signed a historic agreement for construction of North-South gas pipeline by 2020 for supply of 12.4 billion cubic meters per annum with an investment of US $2-$2.5 billion.

This project will follow the BOOT (Build Own Operate Transfer) model which would mean that the project will be built and operated by the manufacturer for 25 years and the company will earn revenue for gas deliveries to recover its investments and return on investment (ROI) afterwards the project will be handed over to government of Pakistan.

The deal will open windows of business opportunities for Russia in multiple non-oil sectors of not only Pakistan but also its allying countries in the region.

After a spate of high-level visits by Pakistan armed forces, both countries have also signed a defense agreement where Russia will provide Mi-35 “Hind-E” attack helicopters Pakistan aiming at military-to-military relationship. At his visit to Moscow last year, army chief General Raheel Sharif spent about 16 hours at an arms expo near Moscow and seemingly has been highly impressive while his inspection of the weapon systems and the live demonstrations.

The addition of Mi-35 attack helicopters would certainly boost the military capability of Pakistan to counter internal and external threats. Furthermore, Russia also played a vital role in assigning membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to Pakistan.

Then there is “Friendship 2016”, first ever joint military exercise between Russia and Pakistan. Other significance of these military drills is that these have been conducted at a time when Pakistan-India relations are at nail-biting point following Uri attack.

Russia, China’s ally, snubbing Indian plea to cancel the exercise or at-least postpone in support of India, sent its troops to Pakistan. This event hence changes the geo-political equation in the region especially when Turkey and Saudi Arabia bear strategic and diplomatic assaults by the United States whereas Iran, an ally of both Russia and China, has shown intent to join CPEC.

Indian analysts embarrassed by the Russian rebuff, term it as “an unfriendly act against India” and “utter Russian disregard for Indian political sensitivities.” “India needs to go in for a divorce from this Special Strategic Partnership which now exists only in name.”

“Russia did a U-TURN on its earlier declared intentions logically indicates that Russia has succumbed to Chinese pressure and China is Pakistan’s most vaunted strategic patron. Chinese pressure would have been intense on Russia so as to bail out Pakistan from a virtual global isolation.”

“Russian strategic and political pivot to the China-Pakistan Axis is strategic pivot to India’s two implacable enemies, namely China and Pakistan. ‘doubly reinforces’ Indian public perceptions that Russia has indulges in a well-calibrated unfriendly act against India and the Indian people.”

These quotes give a plain Indian frustration out of Russian move to downplay India and warm up towards Pakistan for bilateral defense cooperation. However the article does not spotlight on Indian abrupt spin to the United States away from Russia.

With China already a long lasting and trusted ally of Pakistan, the addition of Russia in the camp would shape a formidable triangle of Pak-Sino-Russo changing the dynamics of geo-political and geo-strategic positioning.

Pakistan on the other side has a close relationship with some of the influential Middle East countries lead by Saudi Arabia, so for Russia; it is not just Pakistan but also the Middle East is a potential future market to re-stabilize its economy which has been hit hard by western sanctions after Crimea annexation and falling oil prices in the world.

Muslims' Fiasco

By: Azhar Azam

The mammoth number of around 1.6 billion Muslims around the world with majority in more than 50-countries and holding significant reserves in shape of both gold and foreign exchange seems to have no impact whatsoever on the immaculate fundamental ideology and teachings of the religion they follow.

For decades, they are undergoing endless mayhems and oppressions with limitless endurance by their callous rulers and pitiless western lords. Skirmish to take control, civil wars, internal violence, carpet bombardments, insurgencies or military assaults; each and every event is supposed to occur in Muslim controlled territories.

Then suffering terrible carnage in the regions where they are in minority; burnt alive, raped and brutal killings of kids, women, and men by the people they have been living along for years, are yet to lift their sagacity in the name of liberalism, democracy, peace and modesty.

The scenario within the Muslims countries themselves is scary too. Enjoying “Picnic” sitting alongside the storming river of their own blood, they ensure the flow must not ease down and actively contribute to supply human blood spelled through sectarian killings, ethnic divisions, Arab and non-Arab classifications and securing own geographical boundaries.

We appear to be a herd of goats escaping from wolf till one of us is victimized and then watching the wolf’s feast standing away not comprehending that it would be the other’s turn next time.

After World War-II, all today’s military and economic powerhouses first made their defense invincible before dashing onto the economic zone. They realized in no time the formidable consequences of battling each other, sectarian hazardousness and value of life.

Reaching pinnacle of deterrence followed by economic and technological revolutions just by building their nations on social, ethical grounds where justice and education are predominant dynamics in 40 to 50 years, they are now on the battle field of economy. In doing so, they are now searching for their new markets for both the military and technological products.

Where all are perished the blocks of World War-II? They are united, poised and respect each other on the basis of what we have been taught 1400 years ago.

9/11 exists in United States but shapes coalition forces (ISAF) including Germany, France, Italy, Australia, United Kingdom and many others to execute self-convicted Muslims in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. Brazenly, almost all of the Muslim countries supported them openly and if someone didn’t, opted to hush without uttering a word of defiance.

Why? Why didn’t the intellectuals of US-coalition countries warned their rulers to stay away from the war on terror never hurled over them by that time. Instead, they not only supported but vigorously partaken in this historic Muslims’ slay without any economic and financial provisos. How could they shirk it as it was a part of one common “Capitalistic and Economic Strategy” in the name of “War on Terror”!

Iran-Iraq War, Russia intrusion in Afghanistan, then 9/11 followed by Iraq seizure of Kuwait, the riots in Syria, Libya and Egypt, Bahrain Crisis and Saudi-Iran-backed Yemen conflict; shouldn’t be assessed these all happening are by default or by design?

A disastrous episode pays off prolific returns as all the economic, military & technological powers not only consume obsolete arms and ammunition ‘Arms’ but also test the efficacy of contemporary weapons on Muslims and their soils. Millions of innocent people killed, wounded, hundreds of thousands of kids lost their father, mother or both, mass numbers of modest women rapped and countless homes destroyed irrespective of sect, caste and religion.

The alleged planned anarchy fueled terrorism by pushing people in the Muslim countries en-route of violence, rebel and radical approach. Arms, weapons and fighter jets worth billions exported worldwide and smuggled to the rebellions through international black market or hidden sources.

Now neither of the oppressors needs to land their troops or carry out much of air strikes to secure their national interests. It is the Muslims rulers and rebels serving their objective to shatter each other by the weapons bought from the west.

Consequently, on one side, arch rivals Muslims are ad-infinitum flogged and on the other side; western economy find a rich market to exports of weapons, pharmaceuticals products, machineries, reconstruction articles etc.

You must doubt the sane of the person who link all these actions, activities and attacks with! Chessed up doggedly, it smells soundly a “War on Muslims” to initially engage them in conflicts and eventually to suck up their potency to meet challenges; making them the pawns.

Indian oppression in Kashmir, Russian brutality in Chechnya, Israeli atrocities on Palestinians, or US-led wars on terror; in any case, Muslims are the terrorists and Christian, Jews, Hindus, and Communists are guiltless!

Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim country with highly trained ground, air and marine troops, reasonable capability to produce weapons within the country and preeminent spy agency ISI, single-handedly conducting CIA, Mossad, RAW, MI6 and other notable counterparts. Despite feeble financial outlay and extraordinary geo-political and regional issues, Pakistan armed forces have repeatedly shown its capability to knob the internal and external threats.

Time and again, Pakistan armed forces have come across huge defense challenges yet surfaced successfully. Their inputs are incredible on all fronts; guarding national boundaries, curbing terrorism, and sorting out externally financed puppets including TTP, BLA, ransom and target killers. Even on the political, economic, and foreign façades, they have strongly presented the case of Pakistan.

Since independence in 1947, Pakistan has enriched in the sole area, defense and military capability and technology. Yet some “so-called intellectuals” criticize on the budgets, expenditures and role of Pakistan Army.

Let me ask one question from such morons, did any of the true intellectuals in United States, United Kingdom/Britain, France, Germany, China and others ever carped on their security forces? Or even if some of them did, how much crowd they pulled?

Never! Sovereignty cannot be compromised on such ‘Dupe Intellectuals’! Whenever a country features a bedlam, terrorist attack, or post-border intervention; these soldiers protect our dominion, honor, assets, and siblings. I have one word for those intellectuals – “Shut-up”!

They read, explore, and communicate to sell their thoughts for money and show off their knowledge and grip on history. Studying history is very vital to create history but if someone indulges in corruption, crime or advocating compromising national interests, should we surf history to spot these traitors?

These are some of the general factors of Muslims disgrace. The rulers somewhere are virtuous and economies affluent but not focusing on evolving a professionally trained armed forces. Similarly, a few have somehow developed a military might but the political mafias are propping up corruption, social inequalities and deny access to justice to relish personal interests. These evils have also triggered terrorism in the society slowly with outrageous upshots.

All the internal, external menaces and sectarian, ethnic and regional differences could only be washed out only if all the Muslim countries not just discourage provoking extremism but also ensure equality, justice in society and off course, reinforce armed forces so that they may not seek support of other countries at the time of pandemonium.

Why Turkish D’état Coup Botched and Who Is The Gainer?

By: Azhar Azam

People all around the world witnessed the wondrous resistance by Turkish people on 15 July against the d’état coup by some of the elements in armed forces to topple Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government. The mutineers earlier declared to assume the control of the country and President Erdogan is on the way to escape.

Though this short-spanned tumult quickly ended into a failed attempt, thanks to thousands of people standing between the coup and President Erdogan, but everyday a new chronicle is released relating to this baffling military coup, mostly pointing towards involvement of the United States.

The analysts refer this staged coup in response to the geopolitical shift in the policy of Tayyip Erdogan; to disengage Turkey from regional disputes and focus on internal issues, economy, and people’s well being. Turkey has been in a process of reconciliation with Russia, the United States’ all-time rival, after the downing of Russian jet last November enforcing Russia to bar trade relations with Turkey.

Turkey impugns a US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, Erdogan’s adversary, for this conspiracy and has repeatedly demanded Washington to extradite him who apparently is indisposed to act so. Whatever is going to happen now but for sure, Russia seems to be a veritable gainer in this entire build-up “as it would lift blockade the West has created against Russian gas supply route (Turkish Stream) to Europe via Ukraine”, a project Washington has opposed invariably.

The signals are already hinting towards hasty repair of Turkish-Russo frayed relations as Tayyip Erdogan meets Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Aug 9. Turkey is NATO member and the United States at the same time also needs Turkey “as a strategic buffer between Russia and the Middle East, just as Europe needs it as a shield against the spillover of instability from the east”.

According to Russian Federal Custom Service data, the trade between Russian and Turkey has declined by over 57% in the first five months of 2016, year-over-year. Turkish authorities now sees shelved Black link, making Turkey a linchpin to Europe’s energy supplies by 2020, possible now if the relations with Russia are improved.

Modern Turkey was founded in 1923 when Mustafa Kemal defeated the Anatolian remnants of the Ottoman Empire who was then privileged as Ataturk (Father of the Turks). Grand Nation Assembly declared Turkey a Republic and Kemal Ataturk the President.

In 1928, Turkey became secular and the clause retaining Islam as state religion was removed from the constitution. In 2002, pro-Islamic “Justice and Development Party (AK)” wins 2002 elections with thumping majority but promises to stick to secular principles of constitution. Turkey has a history of constant military coups since 1960 as well.

Deputy leader Abdullah Gul was named premier who resigned as Prime Minister after AK party head Recep Tayyip Erdogan takes over in 2003. It was the same year when parliament refused to allow the deployment of U.S. forces for Iraq war though permitted U.S. to use Turkish air space.

Under the rule of Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish economy has substantially flourished and befell as world’s 18th largest economy with a GDP of about $800 billion in 2014 whereas per capita income has almost tripled to reach at nearly $10,500 for the same year, from a modest value of $3,500 in 2002. It is also the 7th largest economy in Europe and an active member of G-20, a group of most powerful economies in the world.

Between 2002 to 2012; extreme poverty is Turkey dropped from 13% to 4.5% and moderate poverty curtailed from 44% to 21%, improving the access to health, education and other services for less well-offs. It created some 6.3 million jobs before global financial crisis although unemployment ratio is still around 10.4%.

Turkish GDP growth deteriorated in 2009 to -4.8% but it bounced back strongly reporting a growth of 9.2% and 8.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The average growth realized between 2002-2014 was 4.9% and between 2010-2014, it averaged at 5.4%.

Exports have risen from $113.9 billion in 2010 to $143.9 billion in 2015, down from $157.6 billion in 2014. Likewise imports have also mounted from $185.5 billion to $207.2 billion, down from $242.1 billion. CPI inflation has also slightly increased from 8.17% in 2014 to 8.81% in 2015. Central bank has foreign exchange reserves of $111 billion as of 28 January 2016.

AK Party has set an ambitious target to reach at 10th largest world economy by 2023 – a $2 trillion economy, per capita income of $25,000, and exports of $500 billion. Most of the economists believe that the goals are unreachable but one has to aim high to reach heights.

Turkey graduated from low-income status to lower-middle-income status in 1955 and remained there for half a century before being classified as upper-middle-income country in 2005. World Bank defines lower income country with per capita income in between $1,046 to $4,025 and an upper-middle-class country with per capita income of $4,126 to $12,735.


Sources: Global Affairs Press, Bloomberg, Aljazeera, Al-Monitor, MOD Turkey, CIA Factbook, BBC, World Bank, Istanbul Policy Center

Body Count in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan

By: Azhar Azam

War on terror continues to inflate throughout the world although its focal battlefield is South Asia and Middle East as more than fourteen years passes by since 9/11 tragic but potentially controversial incidence.

There are a number of conspiracy theories transpired immediately after September 11 where theorists posted doubts on certain happenings just before the twin towers collapsed.

The conspiracy theories are primarily based on the suspicious stock markets events, Air Defense was told to “Stand Down”, demolition of World Trade Centre by bombs not planes and former president George W. Bush secretly benefited from these attacks. “The 11 Most Compelling 9/11 Conspiracy Theories” by NewsOne provides the details on each of the compelling arguments.

Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan
Operation Enduring Freedom was then launched on October 7, 2001 in retaliation to 9/11 by the United States and British forces with air strikes on Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Latter few other countries including Australia, Germany, Italy, Netherland, France, Canada, Denmark and others also joined as coalition forces.

Operation Iraqi Freedom in Iraq
Then there was Operation Iraqi Freedom began on March 19, 2003 by George W. Bush again charging Saddam Hussain to develop weapons of mass destructions (WMD) under his pledge to use unilateral, preemptive strikes against the states believed to be a threat for the United States of America.

Military Fatalities in Iraq and Afghanistan
According to iCasualties, total military fatalities of the coalition forces in Operation Enduring Freedom reached 3,515 in 2016 with the United States (2,381) and United Kingdom (455) suffered the most. Other coalition partners bear the fatalities of a total of 679 such as Canada (158), France (86), Germany (54), Denmark (43), Australia (41) and others.

The total coalition military fatalities in Operation Iraqi Freedom from 2003 to 2015 were 4,815 where the United States again had the largest loss of 4,495 while United Kingdom (179), Italy (33), Poland (23) and others bore loss of a total of 320 fatalities.

Death Toll in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan
An investigation report released in March 2015 by Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) draws a conclusion that the war on terror has, directly or indirectly, killed nearly one million people in Iraq, 220,000 in Afghanistan and 80,000 in Pakistan. The total number of people killed in the war reaches to whooping 1.3 million.

The study further estimates that the actual death toll could be over 2 million describing 1.3 million as conservative estimate which is 10 times more than what the public, experts, and decision makers know and propagated by the media and major NGOs.

Nafeez Ahmad, PhD, best-selling author and an investigative journalist in his article “Unworthy victims: Western wars have killed four million Muslims since 1990” published in Middle East Eye on April 8, 2015 illustrate the death toll of 2 million as “just a fraction” in US-led war on terror.

Disagreeing with PSR, he says that the war on Iraq began in 1991 not 2003 with the First Gulf War and refers to undisputed UN figures showing 1.7 million Iraqi civilian died due to brutal sanctions imposed by the West, half of whom were children.

Talking about Afghanistan, he submits “a retired biochemist at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Polya concludes that total avoidable Afghan deaths since 2001 under ongoing war and occupation-imposed deprivation amount to around 3 million people, about 900,000 of whom are infants under five.”

“Altogether, this suggests that the total Afghan death toll due to the direct and indirect impacts of US-led intervention since the early nineties until now could be as high 3-5 million.”

US-led Wars Killed Around 4.78 million Muslims in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan
Taking into account the cautious figures, we may conclude that the total number of casualties of combatants and non-combatants, directly or indirectly, in US-led wars is about 4.8 million with Afghanistan 3 million, Iraq 1.7 million and Pakistan 80,000, a total body count of staggering 4.78 million.

The most itching point in this mammoth Muslims death toll is the killing of innocent, guiltless civilians including large number of children who unconsciously fall victims of terrorists and the forces combated or combating them.