July 29, 2019

Pakistan needs to be mindful of US trap

By: Azhar Azam

*This is one of my opinion pieces (unedited) that first appeared in "CGTN":
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-07-28/Pakistan-needs-to-be-mindful-of-U-S-trap-IHuHJlYa9q/index.html

On Friday, the US Department of Defense (DOD) endorsed and notified Congress about a possible Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to Pakistan for Technical Security Team (TST) in continued support of F-16 program for an estimated cost of $125 million.

“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by protecting U.S. technology through the continued presence of U.S. personnel that provide 24/7 end-use monitoring”, DOD’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) news release said.

It is not the first time, the US has shown its intent to supply military support to Pakistan. In February 2016 too, it had approved the sale of fourteen F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, the sale of which was also said to contribute “to US foreign policy objectives and national security goals by helping to improve the security of a strategic partner in South Asia.” Nevertheless, the intended sale was later blocked by the US Congress.

The newer US unprecedented move is widely seen in the backdrop of Khan-Trump meeting in Washington last week, where the US president hailed Pakistan efforts in bringing Afghan Taliban on the negotiation table and facilitating Afghan peace process.

As US bulls to mend its ties with its former cold war ally, Pakistan needs to be very mindful and extremely chary of a possible US trap. Unfortunately, the bilateral relations between the two sides cart a bad taste and a huge trust deficit.

In 1980s, Washington contrived Islamabad as a decoy to rout Soviet Union from Afghanistan. Once the US achieved its strategic objectives, it deserted Pakistan and imposed economic and military sanctions on the Islamic Republic in early 1990s over possession of nuclear explosive devices.

It was obviously an implacable US action, which could have propelled Pakistan’s defense in tatters because of its greater reliance on US military equipment and F-16 fighter jets, in particular. At this critical time, had China not come to spine Pakistan defense, the damage to its national sovereignty could have been irreversible.

In the aftermath of 9/11, the US once again pressed Pakistan to support its global war on terror by seeking its help to topple Taliban government in Afghanistan. As soon as the US was done, it abandoned Pakistan anew and shifted its interests towards India to check China’s growing influence in the region.

When it comes to China – Pakistan, indeed, has always been the most unlikely ally to become a part of any Washington veiled plan that could have bruised its “sweater than honey” friend due to its closet and deepest rapport with Beijing.

Same year Pakistan was denied the delivery of F-16s, the US rebirthed its “pivot to Asia” strategy that declared India a Major Defense Partner (MDP) and signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) with it in a bid to counter China’s growing military might.

Now the US so-called foreign policy objectives urge it to pullout from Afghanistan and also it needs to punish India over purchase of S-400 missile defense system from Russia. So the Trump administration is relying yet again on Islamabad to end the impasse in Afghan war and the potential New Delhi’s re-inclination to the Kremlin.

Although both issues underwrite Pakistan’s national interests but pragmatically, US would never push India into a situation that could impede its wider regional goal to restrict Chinese economic and military outgrowth.

Hence, the top US top diplomat for South and Central Asia Affairs (SCA) Alice G. Wells quickly walked away from Trump’s prior assertion about having obtained Modi’s request for mediation between India and Pakistan over Kashmir dispute.

“While Kashmir is a bilateral issue for both parties to discuss, the Trump administration welcomes Pakistan and India sitting down and the United States stands ready to assist,” She said in a tweet from State Department’s twitter handle on July 22.

US retreat within hours of Trump’s proclamation shows it lacks the willingness and seriousness about the resolution of Kashmir issue that has time and again shoved the two South Asian countries on the brink of nuclear war. In addition, the US reckless and erratic stance on longstanding Kashmir issue could stretch out the bilateral Pak-US trust that has just begun to reclaim after an extended breakdown.

Kashmir is a regional flashpoint that has consistently battered the Indo-Pak relations since their independence from British Empire. As long as India and Pakistan continue to engage in a row over Kashmir, the US would have a greater opportunity to increase its influence in the region.

Peace in Afghanistan is firmly knotted with US regional ambitions as it would allow it to crop up more focus on “Great Power Competition” or bluntly, China, which is the nub of US foreign policy. While peaceful resolution of Kashmir issues would inversely affect US influence in the region, it would fancy that India and Pakistan linger to fight on the demographic ticking bomb.